Week 9 Polls and Ratings - Bye Week Edition
A review of where Michigan stacks up in the advanced stats:
AP Poll #5: http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
Coaches Poll #5: http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
F/+ #5: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
S&P+ #4: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
FEI #6: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
Massey Ratings #5 (#6 Power Rating): http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings
Sagarin Ratings #4 (#4 in Predictor): http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
ESPN FPI #4: http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
SRS #2: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-ratings.html
538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
Michigan's team statistical profile:
Football Study Hall: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml
ESPN FPI: http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=130&year=2018
Massey Ratings: https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=300937
Chances of winning out (ESPN FPI and 538 include conference championship game I believe): ESPN FPI: 23.1%; S&P+ 34%; 538 22%; Massey 33%.
S&P+ and FEI offense and defense ratings are out now:
Offense:
S&P+ #30
FEI #21
ESPN #14
Massey #18
Defense:
S&P+ #1
FEI #3
ESPN #3
Massey #5
And a look at our SOS:
S&P+ #31
FEI #20
Massey #13
Sagarin #20
October 24th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
thats...a lot of numbers. Huzzah they are good?
October 24th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
Yes.
The worst number on Michigan right now is Michigan is #80 on offense on passing downs by S&P+. 3rd and long has not been good.
Michigan is also #96 on defense in turnover rate (percentage of drives that end up in fumble/interception) by FEI, but I think that may be a product of the fact that Michigan's defense is good at preventing first downs (#7) and scheme (press man may lead to less interceptions). If you see less plays per drive you are probably going to force less turnovers.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
The 3rd and long statistic has surprised me this year. It would be nice to let patterson get a little more aggresive on those down.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
I think it is clear that Shea has been told that protecting the ball is a top priority.
As he gets more comfortable in the system it is likely that they will loosen the reins on his natural propensity to go for it.
All the vectors are positive as they work to mesh ball security with a bit more swagger.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^
I think the last few games, we've held our opponents to 50ish downs. It would be interesting to see metrics based on turnovers per down and downs per game as I think we might be top 5 in the latter and much better in the former than #80.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
S&P+ looks does metrics per play. They quantify it differently as Havoc Rate (sack, FF, PD, or INT), but our DB Havoc rate is a little above average (#44), and our PD-to-INC (percentage of opponent passes defensed or intercepted) ranks pretty low--#89. Not sure how to explain it. It might be because our sack rate is so high (#2 or #3) that QBs are just throwing the ball away? Don't know.
October 24th, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^
So...the first iteration of the CFP rankings come out....when?
October 24th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
Next week 10/30/18
October 24th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^
Root hard for:
Alabama
Anybody playing Notre Dame (always good advice)
Anybody playing Oklahoma (I dont think they'd get in before us but why take chances)
October 24th, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^
Clemson plays a very weak schedule, but this weekend they play away at FSU. If the Noles' athletes are ever going to get motivated this would be the weekend. Go Noles!
October 24th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^
I’ll be at that game this weekend. I’ll put the bad juju on the Tigers...if it works I’ll be setting up a Go fund Me so everyone can donate to put me in the seats for any other big games that help out the Maize and Blue...
October 24th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
I saw you making similar points in another thread. You're obviously not wrong. I will just say that this is college football and every single year without fail, teams eat it down the stretch. Don't fret. 12-1 Michigan is in.
Actually, let's check this and see if my point holds up.
2017 initial CFP top 4: Georgia, Alabama, ND, Clemson. ND lost. Oklahoma took that 4th spot.
2016 initial CFP top 4: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, A&M. (sad face) OSU & Washington replaced us and A&M
2015 initial CFP top 4: Clemson, LSU, OSU & Alabama. Clemson, Alabama, MSU & Oklahoma made it.
2014 initial CFP top 4: Miss State, FSU, Auburn & Ole Miss. Alabama, Oregon, FSU & Ohio State made it.
4 years of CFP. An average of two teams of the Top 4 get bounced between initial rankings and the final four every year. It feels like we're perilously close to the finish line, but there's so much season left. I think 12-1 Michigan makes it regardless, but I guarantee somebody up there will lose. Happens every year.
Anyway, just trying to provide a little peace of mind.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
This is good to look ahead, but I don't want Michigan to take BYE easy. I've seen teams drop when playing BYE. Hopefully that doesn't happen to Michigan and they take it seriously this week.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
Are you not aware of the Revenge Tour?
October 24th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
PSU is the featured stop on the Revenge Tour for Don Brown. Plus, he gets an extra week to prepare, so odds of revenge are quite high.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^
Revenge against BYE! Never forget!
October 24th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
I have a feeling that if we win all the remaining games, we'll be considered good.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^
I have a feeling that should we not, a remarkably ignorant and loud segment of the fan base will want Harbaugh fired.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
Still don't understand MSU's FEI number being so high at 13.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^
I was going to write about that. We were low in FEI compared to the other fancystats until after this past week because MSU was so high in FEI.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
Maybe they're still incorporating half of last year, and weighing it too heavily? Idk...
October 24th, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
FEI has phased out preseason projections at this point I believe. ESPN FPI and S&P+ keep preseason projections as part of their formula throughout the season. So I don't think that is it.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
I think they are propped up more by who rather than how they have played. Utah State and Penn State are both pretty high. Teams with front loaded schedules are ranked higher and the teams with back loaded schedules will catch up.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
According to https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm, the highest and lowest rankings for Michigan are:
#1 in the Bordering on Wisdom Ranking:
https://borderingonwisdom.wordpress.com/college-football-2018/
#22 in the Nutshell Sports Ranking:
October 24th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
Upon reviewing the data presented on FiveThirtyEight it appears our few narrow paths to victory are closing.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
What numbers are you looking at? We win out and 538 gives us an 88% chance of making the playoff.
Although they have Oklahoma ahead of us for some reason if all of the top 5 win out.
They're wrong. Oklahoma isn't getting picked for the playoffs ahead of a 12-1 Michigan, on a 12 game winning streak, whose only loss was to undefeated Notre Dame, by a single TD, in the first game of the season. Which also happened to be at night in South Bend.
Nate Silver is a smart man. But he's not a wizard.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
Correction. Improvement Week Edition.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
Spend all week bringing Tarik back into the fold while only practicing third and long from the 40 yard line. Every unsuccessful conversion requires a field goal attempt by Nordin.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^
Our chances of winning out seem rather low considering that OSU just got their dicks knocked in the dirt by Purdue. And PSU lost to MSU, who we just pounded. And Mike DeBord is Indiana's OC.
Does 538 think that Rutger players are going to be armed or something?
October 24th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
Rough percentages: PSU at 67% * 33% OSU * 67% B1G championship = 22%.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
Those are all probabilities as of today, and that assumes that winning one game is independent of any others.
This team is still revealing how good it is. You’d need Bayesian updating to be able to say anything worthwhile.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
Big Ten note: Two of the more underrated teams in the polls this week (relative to their advanced stats) are Iowa and PSU. Interested to see how that Iowa-PSU game plays out this week. Most of the computer ratings have them higher than in the polls, and S&P+ is higher on PSU while FEI is higher on Iowa.
Could be a body-blow game for Michigan as well being able to catch PSU at home the following week.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
I am very curious to see the Iowa-PSU game, to find out which of those squads is a total mirage.
October 24th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^
I think Iowa might pound them. Ferentz hasn't had his 'how the fuck did that happen" game yet this year.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:20 PM ^
I share your interest and thoughts. I pegged PSU for at least 3 losses this season (while hoping for 5 with Pitt and Indiana chipping in.) Ferentz is working some magic with a general lack of recruiting stars and a relatively young squad yet their advanced stats are way above my projections. It appears that even advanced stats can't completely factor out the weak schedule. I think PSU handles Iowa unless James Franklin is even less of a coach than some of us think.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
Dang just imagine if the offense takes off a bit more....
October 24th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
Shea Patterson has high-value room to improve in ways that are actually viable, even this far into the season.
Even a 10-20% marginal improvement (I mean this in a general sense -- decision making, accuracy, reads, whatever) would yield significantly greater % marginal improvement in the overall offense.
October 24th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
I likes.
October 24th, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
You missed the Power Rank: #5.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:18 PM ^
Surprised SOS isn't better considering every team on the schedule except SMU is above .500