Michigan/OSU preview and computer model podcast by the SECFans group
I've posted this podcast before when they've talked Michigan. They do a really good objective job. They have a ton of stat based praise on Michigan's defense and what their computer model says (spoiler model says 37-17 UM). It's an hour long but a good listen. Worth the time.
fun quote from the podcast: "I truly believe right now, as of this date, Michigan is the class of the Big Ten. I think by a margin and I'll be curious to see if that changes...".
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
37-17
Holy hell. That would be amazing, but I'm not yet that much of a believer in our O. Granted, their D may really be that putrid.
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
based on their statistical analysis, Michigan's defense isn't just good, it's top end elite. I think the model is taking in consideration some short fields and turnovers.
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
Their statistical analysis almost exactly predicted the score of the UM Wiscy game.
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
I could see something similar to what Michigan did to Wisconsin. Doesn't sound too unreasonable to me especially if we get ahead early.
October 23rd, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
I'd love to believe it but [insert SEC is dumb and doesn't understand statistics/basic logic joke here]
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^
One of us (show hosts) is a software engineer managing a team of 40 developers for a global billion dollar company, the other is an electrical engineer turned intellectual property attorney for fortune 5 companies. We both did OK in statistics. :)
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
BOOM
Goes the mic...
October 23rd, 2018 at 10:29 PM ^
You guys are the credible voice for me in these kinds of matchups, I don't agree with everything you say, but it is great stuff that blows past my homerism. Please keep doing these non-SEC matchups as time allows. We non-SEC fans read 'em and endorse.
October 24th, 2018 at 11:38 PM ^
I believe the kids are calling that "bodied" these days.
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
37-17, Michigan? Where do I sign up? I’ll take it!
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
Well, I guess OSU's run of dominance is over. Time for me to accept the inevitable of a 37-17 outcome.
CONGRATS, FELLAS! You've all earned it. Start patting yourselves on the back now.
OSU has no chance.
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Their model predicted us to beat the crap out of Wisconsin
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
Do you happen to know what they predicted for UM/MSU?
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
They did a full preview show for Michigan Wisconsin. I'm not sure if they did one for the MSU game. Also not sure if they tweet out previews for ones they don't do preview shows for.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
I couldn't find a prediction for the MSU game. They only do a few high profile games each week, not every game.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
Yeah, I looked too. They did ND/Vanderbilt, but I guess MSU isn't nationally relevant enough to warrant the effort!
I only ask because that seems like a hard game to predict.
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
37-17.
*extends bloody hand*
"Can we make this official?"
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
I get aroused at the thought of our offense scoring 37 on OSU in Columbus. Just the mere thought.
October 23rd, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
Scored 39 once and nobody was happy about it
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^
That hurts, Sambo... Bo is smacking you through the coffin right now.
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
I’m just not willing to look that far ahead yet. Gotta pound penn state first.
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
Fortunately they're part of the Revenge Tour. No way the team and coaches overlook them.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
Don't sleep on Indiana either. Not saying they will beat us, but team should not be looking to the following week and stub there toe.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
It has the makings of one of the bigger trap games in Harbaugh's tenure.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
It's actually the game remaining on our schedule that worries me most. We will bring our best against PSU and OSU. IU is easy to overlook and they always seem to play us closer than they should.
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:50 PM ^
Normally, I'd agree with you. I just watched Don Brown make Lewerke look like a first year starter, playing his first ever game at home in a Rivalry. 0/12 on 3rd downs? What were his stats passing? weren't they like 7/23 for 43 yards or something pedestrian? I like our chances going 3-0 in the next set of games... but I want to focus on PSU before even thinking about any of the other following games.
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Hail yes! If we can win in Columbus my multiple scores... I will not have a voice and I think I will have sold my first born child to whomever can make this happen...
October 23rd, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
Check with Faux Mo.
PS: all this looking ahead makes me nervous.
October 23rd, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
Me too, but at the same time it also feels so damn good... I need to find someone to pump a baby in quick...
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
Michigan's game-to-game performance over the past few years has been too variable for me to get too excited about a computer model. On average, week 8 Michigan might beat Week 8 OSU by 20 if we play them a hundred times, but Michigan's just not consistent enough, the standard deviation is probably 35
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
A hypothetical computer model, now this is meta.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
They make a strong argument that even a 2-loss Big 10 team probably gets a bid unless a number of teams run the table.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
I will be impressed if Michigan can score 37 points against anybody away. Not sure how the computer gets us there.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
Blah
Of eight games this season, Michigan has scored more than 37 points in five of them.
October 23rd, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^
But nmwolverine specified away games, which is a good point.
October 23rd, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
Indeed, thanks for pointing it out - I retract my snark. I read that as "anyways". too little sleep.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
Michigan's Defense is playing very well, we got solomon back whos game should only get more rust knocked off and Gary hopefully can come back. We've got some ballers on our D-Line.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
It's crazy to think, but as good as this line is, it might be one of the worst we've had in the last 10 years, barring games where injury took us to the third string. Not a knock against these guys at all. We've just been spoiled by truly elite play from that position group.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
I will say I watched their video before the Wisconsin game and laughed at their prediction. Then we demolished Wisky and I went back and looked....their prediction was actually very close. Closer than most predicted.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
Watched this today..their Wisky model was dead on btw
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
Thanks for the post guys. We've actually done a good bit of UM content this year but can't start threads here so we have to rely on the kindness of others.
Just to follow up on a few things from the video and discussions here:
- The computer model looks at how a team does relative to opponent averages, so it neutralizes strength of schedule a good bit. UM gets to 37 because of some pretty eye opening defensive statistics from OSU, namely the fact that OSU is allowing 109% of opponent averages passing and 99% of opponent averages rushing. This means that on a neutral field, UM should actually do /better/ than average offensively against the OSU defense.
- Those numbers are particularly troubling when you consider that any given schedule is full of cupcakes, so a good team should be able to reduce those averages against inferior competition. Statistically speaking, UM will have faced at least 7, if not 8 defenses better than Ohio St's
- Our model predicted UM 40 Wisky 13 (score was 38-13)
- Last year our model predicted Ohio St 31 Michigan 17 (score was 31-20)
- We had an in-depth discussion on the B10 winner's odds of making the CFP, and discussed the ND issue, which is a big wrench in the plans right now
- We touched on why UCF taking a CFP slot is a joke
- We also discussed why the 9 game conference schedule is not good for college football
UM and OSU fans have been great on our channel this year, and we pride ourselves in being really unbiased as it relates to B10 football. We're "SEC Fans" but we love all of CFB.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Can your program predict the probability that Urban fakes another health incident between now and the OSU/Michigan game?
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
No, but it does do a reasonably good job of predicting number of Papa John's slices consumed per TD allowed.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
I like the snark! You guys fit in here - come back when you predict that Michigan beats Bama for the championship...
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^
Honestly, nobody's beating Bama this year. I've been watching college football for 30 years and I've never seen a team like them. And I've not said that about a single Bama team during Saban's run.
Barring a Tua injury and some more key defensive injuries (LB is particularly thin), I doubt anyone comes within 3 TDs.
I say this at the risk of knowing I'm in enemy territory. But we're brutally honest all the time. And even Bama fans don't like us on our channel because we still pick on them a bit.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
I'm going to hold my opinion until they play a team that's worth a damn.
Sure they look unstoppable but most Top 10 squads would look the same playing Alabama's schedule.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
It's a fair point, but actually, Alabama's schedule to this point is tougher than Ohio St's. (Their best win is Penn St, who is ranked behind Texas A&M).
- Clemson's best win is also Alabama's (#16 Texas A&M). Clemson beat them by 2. Alabama was up 45-16 in the third and pulled their starters
- LSU's best win was clearly UGA, better than Alabama's best. But this will be settled Nov 3
- Michigan's best win was Wisconsin (currently #20). Alabama would prison sex Wisconsin
- Florida's best win was LSU, things are getting a bit circular
The only top teams who have better wins than Alabama right now are LSU, Texas, Notre Dame, and Florida.
Alabama also skull dragged Missouri who two weeks prior beat Purdue on the road.
They also beat Ole Miss 62-7. The same Ole Miss who drilled Texas Tech by 20.
I think the assumption is that because Alabama is beating these teams /so/ bad, that those teams must not be good. But Occam's Razor says opposite.
And to be fair, I'm not saying teams like Ole Miss or Missouri are great teams. But have shown they are capable of beating teams who themselves also have big wins against P5 competition.
October 23rd, 2018 at 6:53 PM ^
I watched Bama play Mizzou in person. They couldn't get 2 yards several times when they needed it - very un-Bama-like. The pass rush seemed very un-Bama-like in the first half too. Depends on Tua's knee - when Tua went out, the run game picked up because of a real option threat, but the passing game got pretty shaky. If LSU or Auburn get to him ...
Yes, Bama is very impressive - especially with Tua in - but there are a few exhaust ports in that death star.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
Thanks for your work. I am going to check it out right now.
October 23rd, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
If they can get points going on this site again, you'll get over the 100 point threshold for posting. Until then, we'll get you posted.