Previously: 14. Rutgers, 13. Illinois, 12. Iowa, 11. Northwestern, 10. Ohio State

The biggest reason the Big Ten was bad last year was because its middle was so weak.

The Big Ten sent just four teams to the NCAA Tournament last season, and they didn't deserve more. It was a severe step back for the conference, which had sent seven in each of the seasons since the league expanded to 14 teams, and hadn't even sent as few as five since 2010. And while the top of the league was strong with Purdue (2), Michigan (3), Michigan State (3), and Ohio State (5) finishing as high seeds, there was a huge drop-off from there.

Nebraska, which finished tied for fourth in the conference and received a double-bye to the Big Ten Tournament, beat exactly one decent team on its way to 22 regular season wins. Penn State was a Top 25 team according to the computers and suffered some bad, close losses at home. Maryland never put it together. Northwestern and Minnesota crashed and burned after high expectations; Indiana and Wisconsin just had crappy teams.

It was not long ago that the Big Ten was the best conference in college basketball, featuring frequent matchups between top-ranked teams and future pros. Last year, there was a grand total of nine regular season Big Ten games between NCAA Tournament teams - out of 126 total. It made for a lot of bad basketball, and anyone who stared at it too closely may have been better off staring at the sun.

With all that said, it should be better this season. The top of the league is weaker than it was a year ago, but its middle appears to be stronger. Even teams profiled in the last installment of this preview - namely Iowa and Northwestern - could really exceed expectations and make a push for the NCAA Tournament. A rising tide lifts all boats, and if there are more quality teams, there will be more opportunities for teams to get impressive wins, and fewer chances for damaging losses.

Of course, many of the teams previewed here could falter. I’m hoping that the Big Ten season won’t be an endless sea of sludge again, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge the possibility.

9. Penn State

Rutgers sets the tone for futility, but if you take the slightly longer view, there’s no bigger sad sack in the Big Ten than Penn State. Since joining a quarter century ago, they’ve made the NCAA Tournament three times and have finished with a winning record in conference play just twice. Their last coach voluntarily left to coach at Navy. They play in the most comically empty arena in the league. Penn State just simply isn’t a basketball school, but step on the floor they must.

Last Season

It was a significant step forward of sorts as a program, but true to form, they failed to reach the NCAA Tournament. Former star recruit Tony Carr led the Nittany Lions to 26 wins and the NIT title - the computers also considered them to be the Best Team That Didn’t Make The Dance). They had three bad losses at home (two came by one point each and the other was in overtime), the general mediocrity of the Big Ten was a drag on their resume, and while they beat Ohio State thrice, they couldn’t get any other quality wins. They weren’t even close to making the tournament, but then they won the NIT, including two decisive wins in the semis and finals.

Key Player

Carr left after his sophomore season: he signed an agent, had an awful combine, and had to accept a contract to play in Italy for…Larry Brown. Consequently, Penn State has to find a go-to scorer. While 3-and-D wing Josh Reaves is the only NBA prospect on the team, Lamar Stevens is its most important player. Steves scored 30 and 28 points in two of Penn State’s final three NIT games, and does most of his damage by attacking the basket from the top of the key and the elbows as a more mobile four. Like Carr, Stevens was a highly-touted prospect from Philly, and Penn State will get to find out how the junior’s development curve will play out after a couple promising seasons to start his career.

Notable Returnees

The aforementioned Reaves is more of a role player, but he’s good enough in his role to merit some attention as a possible future draft pick and NBA player. The 6’4 wing can guard multiple positions at a high level, has had an elite steal rate each season on campus, and shot 38% from three last season. Mike Watkins will start at center and while he’s somewhat inconsistent, he has the talent to be the best two-way big man in the conference. Jamari Wheeler played a bit role as a freshman reserve - a terrific defender and offensive nonentity.

Newcomers

The Nittany Lions have a lot of experience and depth in the frontcourt, but huge questions at the guard spots. Pat Chambers signed several players who could contribute there: Myles Dread, Myreon Jones, and Rasir Bolton will have plenty of opportunity to make an early impact, and they’ll have to play significant minutes. Dread was the most highly-rated of the three.

Four Factors Profile

data via kenpom.com, national rankings out of ~350 teams

Penn State had the best offense and best defense of Chambers’s tenure last season. The defense is more likely to avoid regression (or even improve), as Watkins, Reaves, and Wheeler are each excellent on that end of the floor. The offensive breakthrough last season will be hard to build on without Carr and Shep Garner - both shot well above 40% from three on high volume and Carr was the catalyst of the offense. They should be strong on the offensive glass again, but their shooting percentages will likely take a big hit.

Outlook

Had Carr returned, Penn State could have been considered among the top tier of Big Ten teams; without him, there’s doubt that they can even be as good as they were last season. Without an excellent point guard alongside them, key players - Stevens, Reaves, and Watkins - will find it much more difficult to play at a higher level in more significant roles, and there’s a lot of uncertainty in the backcourt. After six mediocre-or-worse seasons before last, Chambers has finally built up the program’s talent level, but losing Carr was devastating. In the end, it's hard to give the benefit of the doubt to a coach who’s won less than half his games at Penn State, hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament, and is entering his eighth season.

8. Minnesota

It turns out that “program led by Rick Pitino’s failson” looks pretty much exactly what you’d expect it to look like.

Last Season

The Gophers entered the 2017-18 campaign with a fair amount of hype. They had made the NCAA Tournament as a five-seed (but were upset in the first round) and returned most of their key players. Minnesota started the season 13-3 and finished 2-14 down the stretch after Reggie Lynch was suspended and eventually expelled after being accused of sexual assault for a third time and Amir Coffey was lost to a shoulder injury. Lynch defined their season (and should define young Pitino’s tenure at Minnesota): the program had to answer for his presence on the floor amidst the allegations and defend their response, and the team fell apart without him on the floor.

Key Player

Senior power forward Jordan Murphy put up an average of 16.8 points and 11.3 rebounds per game (and was probably the most impactful rebounder in the league, as he led the conference in total rebounds and the only players with debatably better rates played far fewer minutes). Murphy is strong on both ends: a dominant rebounder, a pretty efficient scorer - especially given his fondness for low-block post-ups and mid-post isos - and an impactful defender. He’s not an NBA prospect because of his bulky-but-short proportions, but he can thrive at this level, especially in his final season in Minneapolis.

Notable Returnees

Coffey was Pitino’s best recruit at Minnesota, and his development track was promising before that shoulder injury. As a fairly athletic 6’8 swingman who can create for himself and others, the junior has a very high ceiling and could break out as a junior. Isaiah Washington was a flashy and woefully inefficient high-volume shooter as a freshman, but has promise as a scorer if he can reign in some of the bad shots. Combo guard Dupree McBreyer regressed amidst a nagging injury last season, and he’ll probably be a significant piece in their rotation. Eric Curry will provide a boost in the frontcourt: he was a quality freshman at both frontcourt spots and missed all of last season due to injury.

Newcomers

Local prospect and top-50 big man Daniel Oturu figures to play rotation minutes at center and make an impact due to his motor, length, and athleticism; the enormous Norwegian Matz Stockman - a Louisville transfer and much more experienced option - will provide depth as well. Oturu has much more potential, and it will bode well for Minnesota if he comes along quickly. Graduate transfer Brock Stull was a quality player at Milwaukee and should find a role (potentially backing up Coffey).

Four Factors Profile

data via kenpom.com, national rankings out of ~350 teams

There’s a lot to digest here. Pitino’s only NCAA Tournament appearance came because of a strong defense (the Gophers protected the rim as well as anyone, in large part due to Lynch); he flirted with his father's high-pressure defensive scheme for just one season before ditching it. On offense, it’s not a great sign that the program’s shooting efficiency tanked once the roster turned over to the players Pitino recruited, and it’s easy to wonder if the turnover aversion disappears without longtime starting point guard Nate Mason at the helm.

Outlook

Despite having had two horrible seasons out of the last three, there’s reason to believe that the Gophers could be pretty good. Murphy’s a star or close to it, Coffey could be one himself, and if others play at a high level in more complementary roles, Minnesota will have decidedly better players than most of the league. That talent is skewed to the frontcourt though, and the play from the lead guards will go a long way in determining how good this team actually is. Going from Mason to McBrayer and Washington is a decided downgrade. Pitino doesn’t inspire confidence, to say the least, but they’re definitely a candidate to exceed expectations. If they implode again, Pitino’s probably out.

7. Maryland

It’s still an incredibly weird fit with Maryland in the Big Ten, and there’s a lingering sense that Mark Turgeon’s underachieved relative to his talent level - really there’s no bigger “does less with more” coach in the conference - but compared to the other recent additions to the B1G, UMD has been a success.

Last Season

For the first time under Turgeon, Maryland failed to make the NCAA Tournament, despite a reasonably talented roster. Versatile wing Justin Jackson was lost early to an injury after having turned down a possible first-round selection in the NBA Draft, and while the Terrapins had a quality backcourt, they slid off the bubble over the last several weeks of the season as they failed to notch quality wins (despite more than a few opportunities for some). Maryland finished with a losing record in Big Ten play and their season met an unceremonious end with a loss to Wisconsin in their first Big Ten Tournament game.

Key Player

With the early departures of Kevin Huerter - who skyrocketed up draft boards during the evaluation process and was picked in the first round - and Jackson, it will be Anthony Cowan’s team. In part due to Maryland’s awful lack of depth, the junior rarely left the floor last season, and he put up great counting stats as a result: 15.8 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. Cowan is a diminutive point guard who can get into the lane at will with his quickness, gets a lot of his points at the free throw line, and has been a quality shooter even with a fair amount of off-the-dribble shots. With Huerter gone, he’ll have the ball in his hands even more.

Notable Returnees

Bruno Fernando decided to return to Maryland for his sophomore season, and the chiseled big man certainly looks the part of a future NBA player. He struggled with consistency on both ends, but his presence as a rebounder and shot-blocker was impressive. If he takes a leap (which is far from a guarantee), he could dominate the Big Ten. At the very least, he should be a quality center. Darryl Morsell is a defense-oriented guard who fits nicely next to Cowan, but can’t shoot and scores on cuts to the basket and off offensive boards. Ivan Bender returns from surgery and should back up Fernando.

Newcomers

Turgeon brought in another really good recruiting class. The headliner is big man Jalen Smith, who will probably slot in next to Fernando at the four; his combination of length - at 6’10 - athleticism, coordination, and skill pretty much guaranteed his five-star status. Smith projects to be more of a finesse player and he’ll need to show some range to provide spacing next to Fernando, but he’s a very promising prospect. Wing Aaron Wiggins (who may start) and combo guard Eric Ayala are highly-touted as well, and either or both could emerge as quality Big Ten players in their freshman seasons.

Four Factors Profile

data via kenpom.com, national rankings out of ~350 teams

Even in some of their better years (from 2014-16 they went a combined 79-25 overall and 38-16 in the Big Ten), the computers did not think kindly of Mark Turgeon’s program and last season was a step back with a team of roughly equivalent quality to its predecessors. Turnovers - really shot margin in general - did the Terps in last season, as they had the makings of a great offense but never stopped shooting themselves in the foot.

Outlook

It’s more of the same for Maryland. Turgeon brought in plenty of talent, but the lack of depth is alarming, and while this core should rank near the top of the Big Ten in terms of talent alone, there’s a reason why they’re widely considered to be more of a bubble team. Spacing does seem to be a significant issue unless Smith can coax the defense out to the three-point line or unless he plays a fair bit at the five. With the personnel they have, Maryland has a reasonably high ceiling; it would not surprise to see them muddle through another mediocre season and see Turgeon’s seat grow even hotter.

6. Purdue

Matt Painter has had two phenomenal classes at Purdue: the Robbie Hummel / E’Twaun Moore / JaJuan Johnson group and the Isaac Haas / Vince Edwards / Dakota Mathias group made the NCAA Tournament four times each, but each had critical injuries at the worst time. Purdue will doubtlessly take a step back after the departure of that second core; after the final member of the first core left campus, the Boilermakers had two losing seasons.

Last Season

Last year was The Year for Purdue. They won 30 games, didn’t lose in December or January, and finished near the top the computer rankings. They didn’t win the Big Ten after losing three straight league games late in the season by a total of eight points, lost in the Big Ten Tournament final, and made it to the Sweet 16 as a two-seed before bowing out. Haas, their enormous linchpin inside, was lost to an injury in the Round of 64, and with him went any chance of the Boilermakers fulfilling their promise as a legitimately elite team. Then again, they lost steam as the season went on and almost definitely wouldn’t have beaten Villanova, even at full strength.

Key Player

After the departure of four senior starters, Carsen Edwards is the last key player left - and his presence puts Purdue in a great spot for their rebuild. He showed flashes during a rather inefficient season as a freshman and emerged as a star as a sophomore. As an attacking guard, he provided the Boilermakers with a much-needed source of dynamism in the half court. Without Haas in the post, Edwards will may play in a more ball-screen based offense, and should be in line for an All-American season. Few players in college basketball have his combination of speed, explosiveness and strength from the point guard position, and he’s already a proven volume scorer. He could put up some ridiculous numbers if there’s no upper limit on his usage.

Notable Returnees

Dutchman Matt Haarms is somehow taller than Haas, and he protects the rim well, but Haarms is more a finesse player inside. Ryan Cline, a 3-and-D swingman and Just a Shooter (40%), returns for his senior season and should play significant minutes. Nojel Eastern was a fairly touted recruit who played a bit role as a freshman last season; the lanky wing offered rare on-ball pressure defense but was a wallflower on offense and shot horribly from the free throw line.

Newcomers

Dartmouth grad transfer Evan Boudreaux sat out all of last season and comes to West Lafayette with two years of eligibility. He averaged 17.5 points and 9.5 rebounds two years ago in the Ivy League, and seems likely to be the complementary scorer next to Edwards as a pick-and-pop four. Three three-star freshmen have also arrived.

Four Factors Profile

data via kenpom.com, national rankings out of ~350 teams

The Boilermaker offense was one of the best in recent years across all of college basketball - with Haas in the middle, four excellent shooters outside, and Edwards to break down the defense, they were often unstoppable. Painter’s defenses have been consistent as well, though it’s clear that Caleb Swanigan had elevated their defensive rebounding in the two years he was on campus. Purdue has clearly recovered after missing the tournament in 2013 and 2014, but the program will have to rebuild again.

Outlook

Had Edwards elected to go pro, Purdue would have lost its top five players and would have been a safe pick to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten. Edwards is good enough to elevate them into a bubble team by himself, but unless he’s the best player in the country or close to it (which is possible), Purdue’s fate will be determined by how good Boudreaux is and how well the role players develop - Haarms in particular. The program will fall off with the departure of that excellent senior class; the question is if they fall all the way out of the tournament.

5. Wisconsin

It was extremely cathartic to see a bad Wisconsin basketball team last season. For so many years, the Badgers were a ruthless force, slowly bludgeoning opponents and dragging them into the quicksand at the Trohl Center. Sure, Ethan Happ’s Sisyphus impression was sort of depressing, but it was refreshing to see Wisconsin take a big step backwards.

Last Season

It was the first season in which Bo Ryan’s absence was acutely felt. The Badgers had made every NCAA Tournament since 1999 and had finished in the top four in the Big Ten every season since Bo Ryan won the 2002 conference championship in his first year in Madison. Despite the presence of star center Ethan Happ, Greg Gard’s third season projected to be a rebuilding one due to all the inexperience - and then two key players were lost to injuries early in the campaign. Wisconsin limped to a losing record and ninth-place finish.

Key Player

Happ is back for his senior season. He’s a traditional big, but an excellent one; aside from not being able to score from more than ten feet away from the basket and shooting poorly from the free throw line, he’s excellent in every facet of the game. Last year was a big change in role for him, as he became the highest-usage player in the conference by a wide margin and led Wisconsin in points (17.9), rebounds (8.0), assists (3.7), steals (1.5), and blocks (1.1) per game. Happ is a fascinating and unique player: he ran the offense out of the post and had a Top 50 assist rate nationally, and he’s a savvy, ambidextrous scorer on the low block despite facing frequent double- and triple-teams. He’s also always had excellent steal and rebounding rates. Wisconsin’s glacial pace deflates his counting stats some, but he’s easily an All-American and either 1A or 1B with Carsen Edwards in terms of the Big Ten’s best players.

Notable Returnees

Virtually everyone is back. Brad Davison battled a shoulder injury for most of last season, but the rising sophomore was the second-best player next to Happ. He’s pretty much the platonic ideal of a Wisconsin point guard. Guard D’Mitrik Trice was the second-most experienced player on the team entering his sophomore season before suffering a foot injury in early December; he’s an undersized two who hit 42% of his threes as a freshman. Kobe King (the other injured Badger) is more of a slasher and Brevin Pritzl is more of a shooter on the wing. Khalil Iverson can play way above the rim and throw down highlight dunks, but shot 0-24 from three(!) last season. Aleem Ford and Nate Reuvers will play alongside Happ in the frontcourt.

Newcomers

Three three-stars will face an uphill battle for playing time. A Top 50 recruit from Milwaukee committed to Wisconsin and eventually decommitted, landing at Kentucky instead.

Four Factors Profile

data via kenpom.com, national rankings out of ~350 teams

Vestiges of the Bo Ryan style remain schematically on both ends of the floor, but Gard’s been a mitigating influence. They are still extremely slow though. It does Gard no favors to be compared to Ryan’s best two teams - two Final Four outfits - but he did take two strong defensive teams to the Sweet 16. Now that the program is fully his, personnel-wise (aside from Happ), it will be interesting to see how much of that Ryan aesthetic persists.

Outlook

Wisconsin seems to be the consensus pick to take a big step forward in the Big Ten this season: they have arguably the best player in the conference, what had been one of the youngest teams in the country has some experience, and it’s unlikely that they’ll suffer the spate of injuries that derailed them a season ago. The program will probably find it progressively more difficult to sustain the level of success they enjoyed under Ryan as his departure disappears further into the rearview mirror, but Happ is a nice parting gift from that era and should elevate his team to a return to the NCAA Tournament in his final year in Madison.