Playing for THE GAME To Decide the Division
Here are the division standings:
1. Ohio State 4-0
1. Michigan 4-0
3. Maryland 2-1
3. MSU 2-1
5. PSU 1-2
6. Indiana 1-3
7. Rutger 0-4
If Michigan beats Michigan State this weekend, the most likely scenario is that we will go into Columbus with The Game meaning what it used to mean: the winner goes on to the B1G CCG and the loser goes home.
There are a lot of important narratives to focus on going into this game, but I think the most exciting is that Michigan still has complete control over its own destiny.
Last season, we had brutal injuries and a lost season, but in 2016 we went into November with complete control of our own destiny. It is looking like we will this year as well. We need to savor this. This is what it means to be a top-tier program. As November rolls around, we control our own destiny.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
Beat State. Beat Ohio.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
lets not get too far over our skis. alluding to what SRJK posted, beating sparty is far from a foregone conclusion. if/when that happens, then lets have this talk.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
Beat State. Beat State. Beat Ohio.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^
Close.
Beat State
Then take a week off and beat State again
Then just remember to show up
Then dont pull an 86 Michigan and blow the Indiana game cause you're looking ahead one week
THEN beat Ohio.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
Indeed, that is the schedule.
I'd note, however, that if we beat MSU, we will either have the head-to-head or a two game lead over everyone in the division. Which means we'd have to drop 2 of 3 before the Ohio State game for The Game to not be for the Division.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
BEAT EVERYONE.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
I'd take the loss to Indiana if that meant beating OSU for the division championship and probably the conference championship.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
This is the hypothetical I always ask friends. Would you sacrifice a loss to team "insert here" to go to the big ten championship.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
Yes, unless it means losing to OSU
October 15th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
It wasn’t Indiana in ‘86; it was Minnesota. Rickey Foggie!
October 15th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
Michigan (and Harbaugh!) lost to Minnesota in '86.....not Indiana.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^
Guys I KNOW it was Minnesota - I was there.
I was referencing losing the game before the OSU game cause you're not focused on the opponent in front of you but rather the one next week. But after re-reading what I wrote I get why you'd say that.
Candidly I the only game we've lost to Indiana I can remember was the 87 game when Demetrius Brown threw like 132 interceptions and even then we only lost by four.
October 15th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
After re-reading....I can see how you meant Indiana this year!
October 15th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
That is kind of what I'm saying. This game is more important than just being a rivalry game. We are playing for The Game to be what The Game used to be: the only game that mattered.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
I'm here for someone to tell me how it's possible that Rutgers could still win the B10 given several incredibly unlikely outcomes.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^
That is still mathematically possible. You're welcome.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
That news just got Brady Hoke excited
October 15th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
They may have to pass better than 2-17, 8 yards, and 5 INT versus teams like Maryland to make it happen though. Maybe.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
It's easy. Rutgers wins their next five games, finishing 5-4 in the Big Ten.
Ohio State loses the rest of their games to finish 4-5.
Michigan loses everything except the OSU game, so they finish 5-4, but they lose to Rutgers so Rutgers owns the tiebreaker.
The rest of the East Division already has one loss so it's not too hard to find 4 more losses for them over their next 5-6 games.
Rutgers wins the East, goes to the B1G Championship.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
So you're telling me there's a chance.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^
grrr, you beat me to it. I knew I invested too much time into figuring out which particular wins and losses were possible! :)
October 15th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
Challenge accepted!
Rutgers has losses to Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, and Maryland. Only one of those (Illinois) is out-of-division, so they're going to need help; they're not going to do well in tiebreakers...
Rutgers must go undefeated the rest of the way (Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, PSU, MSU); Rutgers goes 5-4; Michigan is now 4-1, PSU is 1-3, and MSU is 2-2.
OSU must lose out (Purdue, Nebraska, MSU, Maryland, Michigan). OSU finishes 4-5; Michigan is now 5-1, MSU is 3-2, and Maryland is 2-2.
Not counting those games, Michigan must lose out (MSU, PSU, Indiana); Michigan finishes 5-4, MSU is now 4-2, PSU is 2-3, and Indiana is 2-3.
If any of these things don't happen, I'm pretty certain Rutgers is eliminated; there can't be a tie at 4-5, because either Michigan or OSU will have at least 5 wins. I don't think there's any scenario where Rutgers wins a tie with OSU at 5-4, but I'll admit I'm not going to go through every permutation. :)
There's more wiggle room with other teams because they already have losses, so here's one possible scenario (not the only one):
Maryland loses to Iowa, Illinois, and MSU, but beats Indiana and PSU; Maryland finishes 4-5, MSU is now 5-2, Indiana is 2-4, and PSU is 2-4.
MSU loses to Purdue and Nebraska; MSU finishes 5-4.
PSU beats Indiana, but loses to Iowa and Wisconsin; PSU finishes 3-6; Indiana is now 3-4.
Indiana loses to Minnesota and Purdue; Indiana finishes 3-6.
So, you have:
Rutgers 5-4
Michigan 5-4
MSU 5-4
Ohio State 4-5
Maryland 4-5
PSU 3-6
Indiana 3-6
The first tiebreaker is record amongst the tied teams; Rutgers has swept Michigan and MSU and is your Big Ten East champion.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
Week 8
Northwestern v Rutger
Maryland v Iowa
Michigan v MSU
Penn State v Indiana
Ohio State v Purdue
Week 9
Indiana v Minnesota
Illinois v Maryland
Purdue v MSU
Iowa v Penn State
Week 10
MSU v Maryland
Rutger v Wisconsin
Penn State v Michigan
Nebraska v Ohio State
Week 11
Maryland v Indiana
Wisonsin v Penn State
Michigan v Rutger
OSU v MSU
Week 12
MSU v Nebraska
Penn State v Rutger
Indiana v Michigan
OSU v Maryland
Week 13
Purdue v Indiana
Rutger v MSU
Maryland v Penn State
Michigan v Ohio State
Michigan and Rutger would both finish 5-4 in the B1G. Rutger would have the tie-breaker for the head-to-head victory in week 11.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
I think we probably just talked more about Rutgers Football on a Monday morning than the collective of all Rutgers Football fans.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
Missed the caveat. *snip*
October 15th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
Beat all the States!
October 15th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
Beat State!!!
Also though, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw Maryland sitting at #3.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
You can't look at the Big Ten standings until Michigan beats OSU&MSU.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
Go 1-1 against MSU & PSU and we're still likely to be battling OSU for the division on the final week. Can't see MSU beating OSU as they don't have the athletes to keep up with OSU's receivers. PSU already has 2 conference/division losses, so even if we lost to them, it's pretty irrelevant to the division race.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
"we will go into Columbus with The Game meaning what it used to mean: the winner goes on to the B1G CCG and the loser goes home."
your youth is showing
October 15th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
... OK. Are you saying that the importance of The Game hasn't suffered in this century? Michigan has had a few good years this century. When "It's Happening" happened, people talked about a new 10 Year War. Obviously, we didn't see that over Harbaugh's first few years, but we're getting there.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
He's saying the Big Ten hasn't had a championship game for very long. The Game used to be a battle for the conference, not the division.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
Fair, I was actually a Michigan fan before the advent of the Conference Championship Game in 2011 -- I just wasn't actually thinking when I wrote that sentence.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:25 PM ^
There have been 4 seasons of the East/West alignment. Zero times has that scenario happened
October 15th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
I hope they truly study dantonio here because he somehow seems to surprise them each year.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
Nearly all the top 20 teams "control their own destiny" mid-season. Yet only one with be National Champ so I don't get why this is exciting to you.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
National champ? I'd be happy with beating OSU and winning the Big Ten this year.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
Probably because we've only controlled our own destiny mid-season 2-3 times in the last 10 years
October 15th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
This is a big game. Beat State!!!!!!!
It will be Michigan vs OSU for the division.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
If we're gonna make the mistake and look ahead, let's "miss" focus on Indiana.
That may end up being the toughest challenge to be ready for till TheGame!
October 15th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
Hard to disagree. Also, isn't it crazy that I'm actually think how lucky M is to not have Purdue on the schedule this year, all things considering? Never thought I'd say that...
October 15th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
I never understand all the people saying "Beat state first then we can talk." Like, I get it if you're on the team, sure, take it one week at a time. But we're fans and thankfully free to speculate as much as we damn well please with no impact on how the team performs. Why do I have to limit myself to only thinking about the very next week?
Anyway, I agree with the general sentiment. I's nice to be at a place where if the team performs as it should in 3/4 of the next games we'll be headed to OSU with the winner going to the championship game. But as long as you operate under the assumption OSU will beat MSU, winning versus state in particular doesn't matter; just can't lose 2 of the next 4. Obviously winning versus state matters for other reasons, just not really for going to the championship.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
Personally, I don't get why people want to jump several games against key matchups to discuss THE GAME. We have a big match up against MSU at MSU and then with PSU, but people want to talk the OSU game.
Why?
October 15th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
Uh, because we can? Why not? It's possible to discuss those match-ups while simultaneously considering their outcome's impact on the Game's meaning with respect to the divisional standings.
Again, we're fans. Discussing a future matchup doesn't mean the team won't be prepared for the next week's. It's obviously different if you're playing the game, but we're not. We're just watching.
Just because Thanksgiving is first doesn't mean I can only think about that and have to wait for December to make Christmas/New Year's plans.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
Uhh, did you forget about PSU? If you're assuming a win in that game you are a very optimistic person.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
If we beat MSU, Indiana, and Rutgers, losing to Penn State won't matter - winner of the Game goes to the championship.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^
I always try to forget about PSU.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
I Forgot about Dre...
October 15th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
You're right... the game will mean what it used to mean. Except now we have our 81 yards and a cloud of dust offense.