After UM-Wisc, the B1G West division race is wide open
After Wisconsin's loss to Michigan, there are four teams in the B1G West with one loss: Northwestern (3-1 conf, 3-3 overall); Wisconsin (2-1 / 4-2); Iowa (2-1 / 5-1), and Purdue (2-1 / 3-3).
The way divisional tiebreakers work is: (1) head-to-head result; (2) if three or more teams are tied, the teams' conference records are compared against each other, and then you go back to (1) if that leaves two teams, or look at divisional records if it leaves more than two teams.
Right now, Wisconsin has a head-head edge having beaten Iowa, with @NW (10/27) and @Purdue (11/17) remaining on its schedule, along with a visit to Penn State on 11/10.
Iowa plays at Purdue (11/3) and hosts Northwestern (11/10), and visits Penn State on 10/27.
Northwestern has the easiest conference schedule upcoming, hosting Wisconsin (10/27) and visiting Iowa (11/10), and also plays ND on 11/3.
Purdue hosts Iowa on 11/3 and Wisconsin on 11/17, and plays OSU on 10/20 and visits MSU on 10/27.
So, to me, if you're interested in the West division race, the Northwestern games against Wisconsin and Iowa will be the key ones, as Northwestern has the easiest B1G schedule remaining. Purdue has the toughest schedule remaining. I'd have to say Northwestern and Wisconsin have the inside track of these four teams.
So if Michigan were to manage to get through its remaining opponents—a big "if", we all know—it could be looking at a rematch either way.
October 14th, 2018 at 10:15 PM ^
Is it just me or does the BIg Ten West occasionally remind anyone of the pre-expansion NL West, where it seemed like, at least sometimes, it was never decided until very late in the season because no one seemed to actually want to win the division? Maybe I am off base here, but our sister division looks like that.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:20 PM ^
Essay question...
Big Ten West or 2018 AL Central. Which is worse?
October 14th, 2018 at 11:46 PM ^
GO DODGERS!!!!!!
October 15th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^
I also think of the NFC East. How many years in a row did it seem lime the winner of that division went 9-7 or 10-6?
October 14th, 2018 at 10:21 PM ^
Wisconsin will win the West.
But I tell you what. OSU got off easy on cross division games this year. They do not play Iowa, Wisconsin or Northwestern, the three best teams.
The best West Division team they play is Purdue, a team with three losses already, a decent offense, but a bad D. They also play the two worst teams in the West, Nebraska and Minnesota.
OSU also played a weak out of conference schedule.
If M wins out, then M will probably have a rematch against Wisconsin.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:28 PM ^
Purdue is coming on. They've got a lot straightened out. The OSU defense is not up to recent standards, especially in the back. And Purdue is an aerial circus. Would not surprise me one but if the Purdue Fighting Tillers kick Urban's ass.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
Right and Purdue is possibly the worst matchup for OSU and their poor pass defense this year.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:51 PM ^
Yeah, I have a feeling Wisconsin will still win the west. But their game with Northwestern seems intriguing.
October 15th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^
illinois?
October 15th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^
Penn State could end up deciding the West, with its matchups against Iowa and Wisconsin.
October 14th, 2018 at 10:39 PM ^
To go off on a tangent, the most important match up for us I think is the northwestern v. ND game. Would really like to see the wildcats win that one.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:00 PM ^
It would be better for us if ND wins -- we have arguably the highest "quality loss" among one-loss teams ("arguably" because Georgia could make that claim about their loss to LSU, which was by a much wider margin).
October 14th, 2018 at 11:15 PM ^
The Notre Dame loss would pretty much end their contention for a playoff spot without a lot of chaos. Even with the head-to-head loss, Michigan at 12-1 is jumping 11-1 ND. It's one of the few things the committee has been consistent about in the playoff era.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:47 PM ^
NW running the table would give us a top quality road WIN... much better than a "good loss."
And it would strongly support the truth that we are a completely different team than opening night
October 15th, 2018 at 12:24 AM ^
NW run the table? The same NW team that lost to Akron, and really should have lost to Nebraska, the worst team in the B1G? (because we all agree that Rutgers is not actually in the B1G)
NW is fine. Not great, maybe not even good, but they're fine.
And I'm confused by people thinking that Wisconsin is really not that good as a result of our game. I mean, they're not a top 10 team but we knew that before the MICH game. They still will handle NW and Purdue.
October 15th, 2018 at 10:20 AM ^
Northwestern did lose to Miami OH the year they won the Big Ten and played in the Rose Bowl though. That was their only loss until the Rose Bowl.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:31 AM ^
Sorry, but Northwestern isn't good. They are ranked right around Nebraska on S&P+ now. 29 spots lower than Purdue. They are near the bottom of the conference when their play is measured on a per-play basis. That's not an indictment of Michigan, who just happened to have a crap first quarter on the road against a team that isn't going to give up quick points. But NW isn't running the table. They have very little chance of challenging ND.
October 15th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^
And if you keep going down and down that list, you'll find Vanderbilt and Ball St, who combined lost to ND by 13 points (at Notre Dame). Northwestern clearly struggle early, with Thorson not being 100%. Not saying they'll win out, but they certainly can present a challenge to a, what I would deem, pedestrian ND team.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:07 AM ^
I don't know if an 11-1 ND team would need a lot of chaos to get into the playoffs. There are a ton of games left between teams with 1 loss.
West Virginia still has to play Texas and Oklahoma. Then the top 2 teams in the Big 12 play in the title game. The Big 12 champ could be a 2 loss team.
Georgia and Florida still have to play each other and then the winner will more then likely play in the SEC title game. LSU and Alabama still have to play each other as well as one of them probably playing the SEC title game.
In the ACC, unless NC State has an historic season, their hopes for a berth are resting entirely on Clemson's shoulders.
In the Pac-12 you have 3 one loss teams left - Oregon, Wash St and Colorado. Oregon and Wash St play this weekend, and Wash St and Colorado play later in the year. Both Wash St and Colorado still have to play Washington. If Oregon doesn't win the Pac-12, it will almost assuredly be a team with 2 or more losses.
By the time the dust settles after the weekend of the conference championship games, there will probably be very few teams with 0 or 1 loss.
October 15th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^
Wouldn't you want both ND and Michigan to make the playoffs, so we could beat them?
October 15th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
I'd much rather play ND again than any of Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas, Clemson or Oklahoma.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^
No. I don't want msu, osu, or nd to ever have a shot at the title.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Or psu or nebraska. Not the same rivalry status, but their respective coaches make my hate flow.
October 14th, 2018 at 10:51 PM ^
Pulling for the 'Cats to win the division.
October 14th, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^
Wouldn't it be a hoot if Northwestern knocks off the Irish AND wins the West?
October 15th, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^
Yes, because if they do and we win out, we get to play them again. That's one team I want to see Michigan annihilate after the come from behind win in Evanston.
October 14th, 2018 at 10:59 PM ^
Iowa is the best team in the West.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^
Yeah, maybe. But their coach is Lloyd Carr without the flair.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:01 AM ^
Kirk has learned you can throw the football. Stanley had 6 TDs yesterday.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:15 AM ^
But Wisconsin beat them on the road at night...
October 15th, 2018 at 1:32 AM ^
That was mostly an even game. Iowa beat themselves.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:24 PM ^
I'd love to see Wisconsin win all their remaining games except vs PSU, have Northwestern win all of them except Wisconsin, and Barry Alvarez's head explode when they go 7-2 in conference and Northwestern wins the West going 8-1. It would be such poetic justice for his whining 2 years ago about having to play such a tough schedule (UM, MSU, and OSU that season). You know who plays all those teams every season? The rest of the Big Ten East division.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:46 PM ^
The formula for Barry Alvarez's Rose Bowl teams was...
1. Lose to Michigan
2. Not have to play one of the top teams in conference (Ohio State once, Penn State twice)
3. Play all possible bottom feeders and pitiful non-conference schedule.
It's not becoming to publicly complain about Wisconsin playing a tough schedule for the first time in 15 years. That's just embarrassing yourself.
I have to respect him turning the Badgers from a 100 year dumpster fire to what they are today. But he has the tendency to be annoying. Like before the '97 game when he complained about Keith Jackson and Bob Griese calling the game because he said Bob was going to report back to Brian on everything the Badgers were running in practice. Shut up, Barry.
October 15th, 2018 at 2:42 AM ^
Did you forget NW lost to us? If Wisconsin beats them that would be NW's 2nd conference loss.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:57 PM ^
The west is such shit. If Michigan wins the east, I hope Iowa wins the West. I’d love to repay them for 2016.
October 15th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^
This conversation seems a little ahead of itself. We still have 3 more very tough games before we even get an opportunity at the B1G.
Also, given the history of our two schools I don't know that we need to "repay" Iowa for anything.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:28 AM ^
My money is legitimately on Purdue
October 15th, 2018 at 1:27 AM ^
Don't sleep on Purdue. They are ascending and get Iowa and Wisconsin at home.
October 15th, 2018 at 2:47 AM ^
I still think Wisconsin wins the west. But should be a fun ride. I’d love to see NW win it.
October 15th, 2018 at 6:03 AM ^
All very interesting, to see who earns the right to get smashed by BAMA.
Saban is running the NFL development league down there
October 15th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^
You’re probably right, but if Tua is injured for any extended period of time, that definitely limits their offensive abilities. And their defense isn’t as good as it normally is. LSU may catch them at the right time.
Dont get me wrong: most anyone Bama plays would be a massive underdog regardless of whether Hurts or Tua are back there. But if Tua is out for a while or isn’t the same player when he comes back (big ifs for sure), then there is a chink in the armor.
October 15th, 2018 at 8:59 AM ^
Guys purdu has a chance to win the division? Wtf is this there early 2000s?
October 15th, 2018 at 9:04 AM ^
Well, Chase said it’s a revenge tour. And we beat Wisconsin and NW this year, Purdue last year... so obviously we will be revenging 2016 Iowa on December 8, 2018.
October 15th, 2018 at 9:33 AM ^
Wisconsin will be the West representatives at either 10-2, maybe 9-3 if Penn State beats them but I'm not too high on Penn State.
October 15th, 2018 at 10:12 AM ^
So it really still looks like a race between Iowa and Wisconsin. Both have NW (Iowa at home) and Penn State (both away) with similar odds of winning NW and not winning Penn State.
Purdue isn't getting through their schedule without at least 2 more B1G losses unless you really like the dark horse candidate- they really are one.
While Northwestern may have the easiest remaining schedule, they aren't favorites for either Iowa or Wisconsin. It's not even close.
October 15th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^
How much emphasis is placed on divisional wins vs. just conference wins in general? For example, let’s say Iowa won out, and Wisconsin won out for every game except Penn State. Who wins the division between them and Iowa?
Wisconsin has the head to head over Iowa and it’s only in conference losses are to Eastern division opponents, but they end up with more conference losses.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
If it's a two-way tie, head-head is decisive. https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx
October 15th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
I think it'll be Iowa. Really like how they're playing. They have to kicking themselves for letting that Wisconsin game get away. As it is, the need to be +1 over Wisky the rest of the way which will require a win at HV.