S&P+ Updated Rankings
The rankings have been updated.
4. Michigan
5. OSU
7. Penn State
33. MSU
October 14th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
And #1 Defense baby! Don MF Brown!!
October 14th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
We earned it after crushing the #5 offense.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Without our two 5 star linemen
October 14th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
Umm- not sure who the second person you’re referring to is.
Gary didn’t play, but everybody else (including Solomon) did
October 14th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
These numbers are cumulative.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
Lol. Nice save.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
I know.
But my point remains the same. Gary has been either out or unhealthy all year, and Solomon has only played in 1.5 games (he barely played against ND IIRC). Just imagine this defense if we can get healthy by OSU
October 14th, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^
LOL!!
October 14th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^
MAybe he mean the Solomon was playing a fraction of the snaps he would likely play when 100% conditioned and in the game plan ? Or he didn’t know Solomon played at all.
October 14th, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^
Aubrey Solomon did play. But he sure isn't himself.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
What two lineman were we missing that were 5*?
October 14th, 2018 at 5:33 PM ^
Two? Everyone besides Gary played, who is the other?
October 14th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
I love that! Don "Michigan Football" Brown!!
October 14th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
im shocked Penn St didnt drop further. Maybe they are considering how lucky Michigan st got that penn st dropped about 4-5 interceptions.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
It's all from statistics. Every play.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
MSU's overall defense is very solid (not our level, but still, they're objectively good). I'm sure that has to do with it.
Also: can you imagine if those two PSU fumbles had gone to MSU as they should have? At least one of them was inarguable.
October 14th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
State has a strange defense this year. #1 against the run, and #118 against the pass. I think Michigan is going to go rush heavy against them anyway. I just can't imagine Michigan is going to let this one slip away.
Another oddity, Ohio St's defense is ranked #59 against the pass. Hoping for a big show down at Ohio St!
October 14th, 2018 at 10:08 PM ^
MSU does have a good run defense.
THROW THE BALL!
THROW SOME MORE!
SET UP FOR OPTION RUNS and SCREENS!
October 14th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
It’s based a lot on stats. Penn State averaged over 6 yards per play. Meanwhile MSU ran 89 offensive plays for 418 yards at 4.7 yards per play.
So so a lot of the statistical numbers that get punched in favor PSU even though the scoreboard didnt
October 14th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
Penn State's actual S&P+ rating dropped from 21.8 to 17.5 That's 4.3, which is significant.
Rank, of course, is relative. It's dependent on what all the other teams around you do to.
PSU stayed at #7 because the 6 teams ahead of them prior stayed ahead, while 5 of the 6 teams that were immediately behind them (ND, UCF, Washington, WVU, Wisconsin) had less-than-great statistical performances that weren't going to raise their own rating.
IMO, the crop of teams from #10-#20 this year are less inspiring then they are in most years.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^
I will be interested to see Bill C's win probabilities for that game. I didn't watch it but looking at the box score, it appeared to be a game that nobody deserved to win.
Edit: lol just as expected, MSU had a 26% win probability according to Bill C. Hopefully they have used up the good luck for this season.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
PSU ran up the score bigtime on Pitt and Illinois. Guess it paid off.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
S&P+ doesn't factor in garbage time.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
What is their cutoff between normal and garbage time?
October 14th, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
From Bill Connelly's page:
"garbage time adjustments don’t begin until a game is outside of 43 points in the first quarter, 37 in the second, 27 in the third, and 21 in the fourth."
That seems about right to me.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/10/14/17975076/ncaa-football-rankings-2018-week-8
October 14th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
Man, UW’s offense went UP to 5 from 8 after that game. Looks like MSUs D improved now 21st in country. ND defense is 4. Will be the toughest test for the offense since the opening weekend against State. Has me worried. Shea’s performance through the air against a below average UW defense was troubling.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
He completed 67% of his passes threw no INT’s and didn’t do anything to hurt the team, unlike O’Korn and Speight. Receivers didn’t get enough separation IMO, that’s the troubling part. Patterson was fine
October 14th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
I agree our receivers are still struggling and the complete disappearance of Grant Perry is baffling.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
I woke up thinking that same thing, it's almost like Shea doesn't need old Grant much.
October 14th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
We're only sending three receivers out for routes most of the time while keeping Higdon AND McKeon back for extra pass-pro. That's why our O-line is "protecting" better. We actually have seven guys blocking for Shea, not five. The tradeoff is the three receivers going for routes are being bracketed by two-high safety zone looks. It takes a looooong time for those three to break free of anything in that situation. Perry is absent because the Tide-ends have taken over nearly all his snaps.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
Shea rarely tried or needed to do anything through the air, so I'm not sure why that would be troubling. The only troubling things are when he tried to do too much and got sacked or fumbled.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
I mean, but that’s the problem. On both of those drives Patterson cost the team points by bailing on clean pockets, first, and second not throwing the ball. At least one he definitely had a guy open downfield if he puts it over the outside shoulder, instead he bailed and got a huge loss. It’s tough to say how much is on WR and play calling, but at this point the bailing on pockets is a trend that hope a more often than not no matter how good the opposing defense is.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
Fair, but those were only a couple plays and that style of his has also earned us first downs other QBs may not have gotten. And that's also different than saying his performance through the air is troubling.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
I’m all for scrambling when you can do something with it. I’m just concerned that UW us a worse defense than Maryland AND it was super beat up and still couldn’t find WR open even though not getting a ton of pressure. It could be WR and coaching/playcalling, but either way, the fact that they could find people open downfield consistently is troubling. And it’s been happening all year and we’re halfway through the season.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^
Wiscy was often dropping 7 in zone coverage. Wasn't about getting "separation". It's about finding seams. Say what you want, but Wisconsins defense is well coached. Yesterday was more about W's D than M's recievers. Love what Michigan did through game and took advantage of what W was doing with RPO and running.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
Good adjustments ... UW takes away the pass, then beat them with the run. We now can do both which we couldn't last year ... if they had loaded the box to take away the run, we would have beat them just as bad with the pass. We are ascending to a complete team. Still more wood to chop ... and speaking of which, its time to get Paul back in the house. Go Blue !!!
October 14th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
I think it's overstating the issue that he "bails" on clean pockets more than a lot of guys. What seems clean to someone on the sideline may not feel clean on the field, and what guys see is different than what is seen by the QB. He may not see a WR open, may be waiting for a guy to break a certain way, or just mis-reads the defense. It does happen; Wisconsin doesn't have a great defense, but they aren't bad and I'm sure they played with some coverages. But I remember guys like Gardner and the slew of QBs last year, and that's my barometer for "bailing". Patterson sat in the pocket a lot of times and trusted his protection pretty frequently, especially as the game progressed. It wasn't his best game, but a guy with an 80%-ish DSR isn't a guy I'm worried about consistently missing throws downfield.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
He threw it 21 times and almost never tested the backend with long throws; that stat line is the model of efficiency and perfectly complements the D and run game.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
Exactly this. When you run for 200+ yards in the second half of a pull-away blowout win, you can't be that upset that your quarterback was conservatively efficient and maybe missed some big-play opportunities.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
I think some of the weird moves in rankings are due to some preseason projections from last year that are still falling off this years rankings.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
He had 4 yards passing in the second half. Because we also had 230 yards rushing in the second half. Harbaugh plays to win the game and does not care about style points. Patterson is a weapon and in a very multiple offense he strikes fear in a defense.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
I thought they were 3 last week
October 14th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
Did our offense drop a little?
S&P is going to love us in EL this week.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
A little, I think we were 25.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
This list doesn't pass the eye test. Oklahoma at #3? They haven't beaten anyone and have struggled against two bad teams. Penn St still at 7 with two losses? UCF that high despite beating no one? Really doesn't make sense.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
still have preseason influence in it?
October 14th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
Oh is that the case? That would make sense for the teams I mentioned, but that's pretty stupid if that has any meaningful impact 7 weeks into the season.
October 14th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
Bill C used to remove pre season fully by around week 7. He changed it so that some pre season projection stays in all year long, less each week, because when looking at past years leaving in some preseason projections lead to more accurate rankings.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
S&P+ is not a descriptive metric. It’s not meant to say how well a team played. It’s an algorithm that measures factors that are most closely predictive of winning games, then plugs those in and gives you a number. So although Oklahoma hasn’t always looked the # 3 team in the nation, the are doing something very well that usuallu translates into winning games. You can go to football study hall and it breaks down the components to the algorithm. FEI is another good advanced stat that measures some different thing on a per drive basis.
October 14th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
I understand how that works. But it also includes strength of opponent, correct? Oklahoma has played one good team (and lost) and hasn't played well against poor teams. I'm sure what they did on a per play basis to sneak by Army in OT doesn't suggest they'll win a lot of games.