View from the Sidelines: Now what? Comment Count

Ethan Sears October 6th, 2018 at 9:43 PM

[Upchurch]

The obvious question came with an obvious answer.

 

Do you guys feel like you’re adequately prepared for Wisconsin next week?

 

“Absolutely,” said Cesar Ruiz. After Michigan's 42-21 dismissal of Maryland, it was hard to expect another answer.

 

The obvious follow-up — why? — continued the pattern. Michigan has been preparing well, practicing well and, all things considered, playing well. Yet, after six weeks, we know little more about this team than we did in August.

 

Well, let’s walk that back a little bit. We know Shea Patterson is as good as advertised, that the defense hasn’t lost a step, that the offensive line maybe isn’t all that bad. But all six games have gone, more or less, the way they were supposed to go. A one-score loss at Notre Dame in Patterson’s first game where a couple 50/50 plays went the Irish’s way; blowout wins against Western Michigan, SMU and Nebraska; a comeback victory at Northwestern; a game that defined routine against Maryland.

 

That’s half of the regular season, and other than a bad first half in Evanston, there’s been little outside the realm of the expected. Starting right now though, with a gauntlet of Wisconsin, at Michigan State and Penn State, we’re going to figure out what this team is.

 

[After THE JUMP: Unpacking this]

 

It’s clear that the talent is there.

 

Patterson has, on a weekly basis, made NFL-caliber plays in and out of the pocket. His 22-yard touchdown throw to Ronnie Bell on Saturday was just absurd, fit into a way-too-tight window. He stood in the pocket and delivered a deep strike to Donovan Peoples-Jones, then when it was called back for a holding, hit Zach Gentry on the run.

 

Gentry has established himself as Patterson’s security blanket and Peoples-Jones’ five-star talent is starting to shine through. Karan Higdon has gone over 100 yards in four straight games, turning into a workhorse. Even the offensive line has been legitimately good in pass protection after the Notre Dame game — though it’s worth staying wary and seeing what comes of next week.

 

The defense is still really good — Chase Winovich has led an overwhelmingly dominant line. Despite injuries and targeting calls, there’s little to complain about in the grand scheme of things.

 

Now, the Wolverines have to do it against good teams, in big games. This might be the most talented team Jim Harbaugh will have in Ann Arbor for a while. In all likelihood, Patterson will leave for the NFL after this season, along with the core of the defense. Those losses won’t be easy to withstand despite talent waiting in the wings. But Michigan has already slipped up once. There is little-to-no margin for error over the rest of the season, and it’s no secret that the Wolverines have struggled to win against good competition of late.

 

“We, in the past, have not finished the big games as we wanted to,” Tyree Kinnel said. “And I feel like the Notre Dame game was a learning experience for us. That was Shea’s first game for us, his first game in the system. I think everyone will be better — offense, special teams and defense.”

 

There isn’t any room for unnecessary penalties in these games. Good as Patterson has been, there’s room to nitpick — and these next three opponents can take advantage of it. Surprising as the line has been, nobody can say with confidence that will translate to a strong performance against better teams.

 

There’s a legitimate Michigan’s season falls apart starting next Saturday. It’s more than conceivable that this becomes an 8-4 — maybe even 7-5 — season that ends in some corporate bowl game whose name sucks the life out of you. The schedule is really tough, and a trademark of the Harbaugh era has been losing games just like these. It’s unfair to pin that all on the coach, and a fair number of those losses have come down to dumb luck. But it’s hard to trust Michigan in these situations until it actually succeeds in these situations.

 

But if the Wolverines win two of their next three games, they’re in the Big Ten title hunt. If they win all three, there are probably playoff implications when they go to Ohio State. That’s not impossible — two of those games are at home and the Spartans lost to Northwestern in East Lansing on Saturday. The schedule looks more manageable than it did six weeks ago. Going into Saturday, S&P+ had Michigan favored, albeit slightly, in all of its next three games.

 

“Our confidence level has gone through the roof,” Kinnel said. “We’re executing the gameplans really well and next week we get to show what we can do in prime time against a very good Wisconsin team.”

 

What Michigan does in that setting, against that caliber of team — that’s what will matter. You can throw the last six weeks out. It’s all about the next three.

Comments

NorcalBlue

October 7th, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^

Couldn't agree more.  Where have I seen this before:  Beat up on a bunch of cupcakes and everyone gets their hopes up.  We haven't beat anyone with a pulse in a long time.  Fact is, they didn't look good against a depleted ND team.  Those problems didn't just go away - they're just not as apparent vs cupcakes.  Look for the tackle position to be awful again the next 3 games and our running game to stall.  Also, look for the safety position to get schemed against and burned multiple times (especially vs PSU and OSU).  Staee will load the box to stop the run.  I predict we go 1-2 in the next 3 and lose to OSU.  8-4 I'm sad to say.  You just can't judge this team vs cupcakes at home.  Judge them against quality teams, like ND....and a depleted ND team at that.

Sten Carlson

October 7th, 2018 at 5:48 PM ^

You mean in the first game of the season, on the road, at night, and the first game in a new system for the QB?  Ok, if you say so.  Michigan lost the ND game on three plays:

1) the lucky ass bomb that hit (after a bullshit targeting ejection, I might add);

2) the botched FG;

and, 3) the 3rd & 18

Don't act like that was an abomination of a game.  Michigan got hit early, then closed off the ND offense, but hadn't come together as an offense enough to tie the game up in the end.  So be it.  I don't mind lose to ND under those circumstances -- especially as ND is looking like a real contender this season.  Do you think if Michigan played ND after playing WMU or SMU that the result would have been the same?

NW is not a cupcake, and neither is Maryland.  Both teams are flawed, and aren't B10 contenders right now, but neither team is a complete pushover and Michigan beat both.  You can predict whatever you choose -- surprised surprise it was a "glass half empty prediction"  -- but at least give some credit to the opponents.  If you'd like a prediction, I predict if Michigan beats Wisconsin you'll say be in here saying that Wisconsin lost to a horrible BYU team, at home, and that we shouldn't get excited until we beat MSU, PSU and OSU.  Then, if we beat MSU, in their building, you'll say how far MSU has dropped off.  Then, if we beat PSU, you'll say they're not the same without Barkley … blah blah blah.

 

1VaBlue1

October 7th, 2018 at 3:24 PM ^

"The only missing ingredients that keep this team from being dominant are an elite LT and an innovative offensive coordinator."

The LT I get, but Harbaugh is the OC and his offense is scoring 38 points/game, running for 200 yds/game, and throwing for 230 yds/game.  It's possessing the ball at an absurd rate - easily doubling up on opponents every game.  They've scored on something like 17 of their last 20 drives.

WTF do you want?

Sten Carlson

October 7th, 2018 at 5:53 PM ^

There's only one way to find out.  Clearly, you've staked your claim and just keep parroting the same old line and refuse to admit that we're seeing improvement from the team in the two main question marks leading in to the season.  Nobody can predict the future, but if you say that improvement can ONLY be seen against the most elite in the schedule that's completely false.  Michigan, just last season, struggled to move the ball against almost EVERY team on the schedule except for the most woefully out matched opponents -- and even then it was often ugly.

freelion

October 7th, 2018 at 5:36 PM ^

Harbaugh is a fine OC for now. I'm just saying if you want to be an elite team, you need a more innovative offensive mind to compete with the crazy level of athletes on top defenses these days. They are becoming a very good team this year but probably won't be elite without these ingredients.

Sten Carlson

October 7th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^

This meme will never die, despite the fact that's is so completely false.  What is "innovative" to you?  You keep saying this but you never really come out and say what you think this offense should look like.  Personally, I think that's because you've not got a clue what you're talking about you just see teams like Oklahoma racking up 500 yards of offense, slinging the ball all over the lot, and you get excited.  Well, did you notice that they also DO NOT PLAY DEFENSE by chance?

This is very simple.  This innovation that you're so intent upon is not really innovative at all, it's just a different way of accomplishing the same thing -- getting the defense to adjust to what you're doing and exploiting their shift.  Harbaugh does it inside-out, while spread concepts do it in outside-in.  Why is this so tough for people to understand.  Neither is better, neither is right, neither is wrong.  They're just different philosophically.

It's clear you don't think highly of Harbaugh's philosophy, and you seem to want Michigan to shift to a spread concept -- don't hold your breath.

GoBlueMAGNUS

October 7th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^

Not sure where you come up with Patterson leaving early to the NFL. He’s been good but struggled too much against the better teams to leave early at this point. 

unWavering

October 7th, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^

"Most talented team for a while"

Huh?  I... disagree.  Even if Patterson leaves, McCaffrey looks like a star in the making.  The defense can reload, as proven in 2017 and we've been recruiting well.

Double-D

October 7th, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^

That does seem like an exaggeration. 

The line is trending up with almost everyone back and likely more upside at RT.  The best of our wide receiving group comes back a year more experienced.   We have a ton of good young talent on D ready for their opportunity.  

Shea going pro is certainly tbd.  It would not surprise me either way at this stage.   

Novak-blood

October 8th, 2018 at 1:03 AM ^

Did a double-take reading that line as well. The program-building is finally paying dividends with increasing depth at many position groups. If the staff can shore up the OL coaching, development, and recruiting, the future looks quite bright. I don't perceive this season as any sort of 1-year contention window for glory - in any way whatsoever.

njvictor

October 7th, 2018 at 2:41 PM ^

I'm pretty confident going into Wisconsin. Wisconsin's defense looked questionable allowing over 500 yards of total offense and 24 points against Nebraska compared to us only allowing 132 total yards and 10 points to Nebraska. They also allowed Adrian Martinez to throw over 380 yards against them which seems to show their secondary isn't great. My only worry is their offense. There are 2 main question marks for me:

1) Can we stop Jonathan Taylor?

2) Which Alex Hornibrook shows up Saturday night?

If we can stop the run, which is a big if, we should be ok, however, you never know if Hornibrook is going to be able to pass the ball or not. We could get Nebraska Hornibrook where he goes 13-24 for 163 yards or we could get Iowa Hornibrook where he goes 17-22, 200 yards and 3 TDs. Is he gonna throw a few stupid INTs or is he going to be making absurd NFL throws in double coverage? There's no way of knowing

kyeblue

October 7th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^

always unknowns in every game

but i am optimistic going into the Wisconsin game. If we are able to stop the run, the pass rush will get home in pass downs.

DeepBlueC

October 7th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^

No, the late season losses that have been a hallmark of Harbaugh's tenure are not the result of "dumb luck" (whatever the heck that even is).  Very little in college football is a matter of luck.  It's a matter of doing controllable things better than the opposition, and we haven't done that when it's really mattered.  It's only when you don't do those thing and end up losing that you call it "luck".

Detroit Dan

October 7th, 2018 at 3:54 PM ^

I disagree. The 2015 Michigan State game with the blocked punt unlucky.  But the spot in the 2016 OSU game was the difference between us going to the playoff and not winning the B1G.  That spot was just a 50-50 call, and on replay it looked like the refs got it wrong.  Not that we should have won the game, but there was some bad luck involved in our loss.

Teambizy

October 7th, 2018 at 5:03 PM ^

Are you referring to just doing “controllable things better than the opposition “ against big opponents lately? Or Michigan’s overall history as a whole?   We’ve had some tough games in recent years for sure.   I just get a little moody when someone refers to the Harbaugh tenure as some negative curve of our statistical history or that Michigan has been or is modern day Alabama. we aren’t....    and quite honestly should never expect to be.  

UofM Die Hard …

October 7th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^

Ok i kinda agree, but that toughened up this team for sure. And we had the ball in the end to go tie that game, in ND at night. I mean ya it’s a sucky loss but look what ND is doing right now. I hate them as much as the next M fan but they are legit.  

While i would like to be 5-0 right now but that game, and NW, has us prepared for that road ahead  

 

Blue Sharpie

October 7th, 2018 at 4:04 PM ^

I was optimistic vs Wisconsin, until the D line injuries started piling up.  If Dwumfor, Gary, and Solomon are out, then depth is a big concern.  Kemp was injured Saturday too, but I think he went back in.  Wisconsin O line could be a little scary this week.

BornInAA

October 7th, 2018 at 5:43 PM ^

Watching most Big Ten teams lately, MSU and Wisc are very beatable. Both do not have very good passing games at all and suspect defenses.

The key will be no turnovers and special team gaffes and we should beat both by 10. MSU might even be a blowout win.

PSU will be tougher test with a more balance offense and tougher defense.

I think we are 7-1 heading into PSU game.

 

THE TEAM cubed

October 7th, 2018 at 5:52 PM ^

He’s right.  We know absolutely nothing about this team.  Which team will show up in east Lansing and Columbus?  Screw the playoffs,  or the big ten,  I only care about those two games this year .  

Eye of the Tiger

October 7th, 2018 at 6:06 PM ^

I dunno, man. I just don’t think Patterson has the numbers for an early NFL exit. He’s good, sure, but the offense will bring back most people and so he’d likely benefit from another year in terms of draft placement. I feel like he’s coming back. 

 

samdrussBLUE

October 7th, 2018 at 7:21 PM ^

Why do people think Patterson is leaving after this season? I’m just not seeing anywhere near enough production yet to warrant an early entry into the NFL. Yes, he’s been good and doing very fine things this season, but I’m not seeing that translate right now into elite prospect ready for the NFL.

jigsmcgee

October 7th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^

Can say with confidence 99.9% that anyone on this site who is saying year 4 is enough time to establish a program just is not capable of deep thinking.

Just absolutely embarrassing thought process in this day and age, 1st order thinking.

These are the people that matter in what happens:

1) Harbaugh

2b) schlissel

2a) warde

This is what was said:

1) this is exactly how much time I need

2b) ok cool, will take care of press

2a) coo coo coo, will take care of press

Financial impact is calculated over the course if his contract and Harbaugh has recouped half of it or more already.  $ will not matter for the next 3 years.

To build elite programs, 1) needs 7 to 10 years. And 2a and b know he will get it done if given time, so he will have time.

Sten Carlson

October 7th, 2018 at 10:27 PM ^

7-10 years!?  Only LOSERS think it should take that long!  The guy is getting paid a Brazilian dollars a year to win for me to feel better about myself!  UNACCEPTABLE!

obvious /s

Listen, I agree with you a Brazilian percent.  Just a few weeks ago I was talking with a guy, a Nebraska fan, who was spouting off (before we played them) about how Harbaugh is going to wear out it's welcome, blah blah blah, same old tired meme's.  I told him that The University of Michigan has existed for 201 years and has been playing football for almost 150 of those years.  Harbaugh is not only a beloved Michigan son, he's a great coach, and if there is one thing of which I am certain, its that Michigan is not going to make an impatient choice about its football coach again.  I told him that if I were him I would hope to be saying the same thing about Scott Frost if I were a Nebraska fan.

This day and age, in many ways, can be characterized as an immediate gratification, disposable world.  Are there better coaches out there?  Perhaps.  I'd never say never.  But, realistically, is there anyone that could be better suited for Michigan right now given its recent historical lows?  Not only can I not even imagine such a person, I find it laughable to think that anyone honestly could name someone.  Is he perfect?  No.  No coach is.  But, again, we've been playing football -- much of it at a very high level -- for around 150 years.  Since 1997 Michigan was on a collision course with it's own historical legacy.  It was unprepared for a passing of the proverbial torch, made a hasty, unpopular decision, then compounded its poor choice with a series of hires from AD to HC, to OC's, etc.  

Finally, in 2015, after all the crap, Michigan FINALLY made the right decision and hired Harbaugh.  Despite all this, there are STILL people out there complaining, calling their fellow Michigan Men losers because they're willing to be patient with Harbaugh, and although they'd love to win it all right now, they also realize (as you said) that building an elite program from a program that was where Michigan was just a few short years ago can take some time.  I can say personally, I don't every want to go through the kind of humiliation we went through beginning with App St. and Oregon in 2007, and leading all the way until 2014. 

We've seen program after program reach for the golden ring, to try to get "back" to where they felt like they should be historically, and fall short -- often because they got impatient.  Not this time.  No real Michigan Man, IMO, for want of immediate or short term gratification should ever want to see Michigan go through that turmoil again.  To me, hiring Harbaugh, above all else insured that Michigan will, at the very least, be relevant for the next 20 years.  Will we win the B10 every year?  No, obviously not.  Our biggest rival -- who just happens to be one of the two most consistent football programs in the past two decades (and maybe ever) -- stands in the way every year.  I cannot think of another coach in the nation who I would say could insure that same thing.

Rabbit21

October 7th, 2018 at 11:05 PM ^

That's fine, it's even reasonable, but when everyone saw a massive turnaround of freaking Stanford by year four, it's fair to wonder when the murder facing is supposed to start.  

Especially when people have been told to be patient for ten years, that refrain gets really old.  Add this against an OL that looked downright bad against Notre Dame and a bad record against rivals and there's plenty of room to be asking questions and to throw out the "have patience" argument entirely.

Sten Carlson

October 8th, 2018 at 12:27 AM ^

Two words: Andrew Luck.  

Teams are different.  Programs are different.  Rivalries are different.  Go ahead and ask questions.   But you’re never going to get the answer that you seek because nobody knows why these things happen.  Maybe, just spit balling here, Stanford didn’t have ANY expectations (very zen like) and their fans didn’t whine and complain, and social media wasn’t what it is today, so the players performed better sooner.  

Maybe Stanford had better QB and OL recruits early on.  Maybe Michigan had some bad luck with QB and OL recruiting, development and injuries.  I dunno.  But, one thing is certain that it’s not because Jim Harbaugh somehow forgot how to coach and develop a football team.  It’s clear that comparing gets you upset.  Maybe you should stop and realize what happened at Stanford, or SD, or SF is meaningless when it comes to Michigan.

I'm sorry if you think it’s an old refrain.  But just because you’re tired if hearing it doesn’t mean that IMPATIENCE is the right course of action.  Again, is there legitimately someone else who you think would have Michigan in a better spot at this moment in time?  If not, then what other mindset can we take?  Some choose to be perpetually anger, or concerned.  As Coach Brown loves to say, it is what it is.   We’re where we are because of the choices Michigan made.  Why compound bad choices with impatience?

Rabbit21

October 8th, 2018 at 8:17 AM ^

Again your takes are logical and make sense on a certain level but you have to acknowledge that simply saying have patience isn't going to cut it if the team blows it during this stretch.  Brady Hoke and Rich Rodriguez both said to be patient and look where that got us.

Fair or not, it's not a well anyone gets to draw on, especially if they lose to MSU yet-a-goddamn-gain.  If there's progress on the issues that's fine, but what does that mean for next year when half the defense is gone and there's a new QB under center, must there be patience again if the team can't get it done in a big game that year?

Like it or not, at some point there has to be some result beyond paving bad teams(much fun as that is).

socalwolverine1

October 8th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^

It's very premature to start talking shit about how great we are until we see how we measure up against Wisconsin. Why? Because the truth is, they are our mirror image in terms of the style of football each team likes to play: both teams are built for physical power running, using the pass to open up (or bail out) the run, not the other way around; and both teams use long, grind it out drives (that gain a lot of yardage but frequently no points), and very predictable play calling in short yardage situations (we're going to try to blast you backwards, regardless of how many guys you stack against us). Both defenses are excellent, ours is statistically better, but don't underestimate what theirs can do against us. 

I expect a one score game that we narrowly win, similar to the Northwestern game. Wisconsin has the running game (with the B1G's best OL) and an experienced, good QB to make it tough on our defense (pick your poison type game).