Schedule Lays Out Nicely
Although this is still one of the toughest schedules overall in the country, I like how it lays out going forward for the following reasons:
1. The opponents and matchups get progressively more difficult for the most part allowing an improving team time and opportunity to develop talent and depth.
2. There is a nice break for the bye week to heal up with 4 games to go - not too early and not too late. It also breaks up the "murderers row" of Wisconsin, MSU, and PSU.
3. We have a couple of light games before OSU instead of recent years with physical road matches against Iowa and Wisconsin the week before The Game.
4. The road games (other than OSU) are not in pits of hell like Iowa or PSU. Northwestern will have more Michigan fans than the home team. MSU is not that loud or hostile - they can't even sell the place out regularly. Rutgers is Rutgers.
If the team continues to show improvement and we get some breaks, we could roll into Columbus at 10-1 and ready for a 2006 type of showdown with the Bucknuts. I'm not saying it will be easy but I think if the team continues its upward trajectory, it is doable. This is especially true if injured players such as Evans, Solomon, and Black return to gives us a boost along the way.
Sept. 29 @Northwestern 4:30, Fox
Oct. 6 Maryland Noon/TBD
Oct. 13 Wisconsin TBD
Oct. 20 @Michigan State TBD
Nov. 3 Penn State TBD
Nov. 10 @Rutgers TBD
Nov. 17 Indiana TBD
Nov. 24 @Ohio State Noon, Fox
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^
Let's stop doing this. Just beat NW. Then worry about Maryland.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
We are fans not players or coaches. We can look ahead all we want! We don't have to take it 1 game at a time.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
I'd do 12 at a time if I could
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
Personally, I'd do 15 if I could.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
We always project the schedule and lump games. OP is already talking about 10-1 going into the Ohio State game. PSU, Wisconsin, and MSU are not gimmies just because we throttled Nebraska. Northwestern will pose some challenges as will Maryland.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
Remember Notre Dame. The schedule did not work out nicely for that game, nor should we assume anything on our schedule...especially since I can’t remember the last time we handled a ranked team.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^
It was 2 years ago when #9 Wisconsin came to Ann Arbor and we beat them 14-7 whole outgaining them 3 to 1. It was the Jourdan Lewis INT game.
On the road is where we’ve had issues.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
Is it really a road issue or just the fact that we haven't been good enough to beat good teams? Since we crushed Maryland in 2016 we're 12-9. We've had losses @Iowa, @OSU, vs FSU, MSU, @PSU, @WI, OSU, vs SC, @ND. The wins are Indiana, vs Florida, Cincinnati, Air Force, @Purdue, @Indiana, Rutgers, Minnesota, @Maryland, WMU, SMU, Nebraska. We're not losing road games to meh teams and we're not winning home games against good teams so it seems like quality of opponent than venue. Last year we lost to both MSU and OSU at home and probably the best wins we've had in those 21 games are last year on the road @Purdue, and @Indiana. Basically, with FL and NE being shit teams, we've beaten every weak team we played and lost to every top 25ish team.
We're scoring about 17 ppg in those 9 losses, even with the benefit of turnovers, defensive and special team generated scoring. And the 21 points the offense (11 from D/ST) put up against FSU is the only team we've even gone above 17 points in regulation in those 9 games. So really until we see the offense move the ball effectively against a good defense it's all TBD despite the positive signs yesterday.
September 23rd, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
I don’t know why everyone keeps saying “since the end of 2016...” as if last year’s offense with our 3rd string QB is somehow the norm and all other Harbaugh offenses don’t count. Since the beginning of 2016, MSU hasn’t done shit, got blasted by a billion by OSU, and lost big to PSU and ND. Should we now just think Dantonio is a shitty coach and 2016 through today is the new norm for them?
September 23rd, 2018 at 6:51 PM ^
I recall a few teams we have had issues with at home.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Handling "ranked teams" is misleading. Florida was #17 last year when we throttled them, but they ended up being pretty bad. OTOH, in 2016 we beat down an unranked Colorado and an unranked Penn State, and both teams ended up winning their divisions. We also beat unranked MSU that year, but if we had played them earlier in the year when Wisconsin did, we'd have a road win over a Top 10 team and that particular hot-take narrative would be gone -- even though nothing of substance would have changed.
September 23rd, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
True. But you can just use end of season ranking though to come up for some numbers that are then adjusted for how good your opponent was thought to be once a full season of info was available instead of while incomplete info is available earlier in season.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
I'll get to work on that pronto
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:29 AM ^
According to Brando yesterday, he thinks we are playing Maryland next week and kept on calling Metellus, Mertellus. I mean, really?? Look at your sheet Brotato chip. Even the counter strike guy looks at his chat.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
He also claimed that Wilton Speight was one of the "blue chippers" that Harbaugh brought in. That guy has no clue and should be ashamed that this is his job.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
Let's stop doing this. My projections as a fan have absolutely nothing to do with the performance of college students on a football field.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
completely agree. If we as fans stop looking ahead and take it one game at a time, the team will do better. We also need to take the OSU game more serious. In opinion, that is the reason UM loses that game.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
I thought this same thing last night. Neat!
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
One very interesting part of our schedules is having the BYE week to prepare more for Penn State, following a game at Sparty on the road. Given the emotions of the Sparty game, I think this is a perfect week for a break to get prepared for another huge game.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
I'm liking this outlook. I think the floor for this team is 9-3 as of today, and I honestly believe that we would have to shoot ourselves in the foot to be there.
The two positions I think we really need to see improvement on is the O line and the Secondary. The secondary has me worried against PSU, Wisconsin, and OSU. I just hope those QBs don't turn into Tom Brady when we play them like years in the past.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
Haskins is an elite passer. We are going to have to be on point when we play OSU.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
I agree with this, however he doesn't look elite when pressured. I think it will come down to how fast we can get to him before he has time to make his reads.
September 23rd, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
Turn into? McSorley and Haskins are already great...everyone already knows that.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
Having Wisconsin and Penn st at home is huge. Going to MSU is not near as scary as going to Madison or Happy Valley
Good chance to be 10-1 heading to OSU. Annnnd of course it would be another huge game played at OSU. Be nice to get one of those at home for once.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
MSU is not that loud or hostile - they can't even sell the place out regularly.
Michigan is not a regular opponent for them though. When Michigan comes to town, MSU fans step it up in intensity. The silver lining is that we also bring a lot of fans to that game (more than for any other road game, save Northwestern).
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
I live in Lansing. Spartan fans have lost their swagger and they know the end is near. Like OSU fans they hate Michigan with a passion but they have a big inferiority complex that comes out often. I don't think home field will be a big advantage for them. Hopefully Dantonio's weather machine malfunctions this time.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
Not just Mark D's weather machine, but some damnfool occurrence like a muffed punt (2015) or an unfortunate occurrence like an only moderately talented M QB to go along with the monsoon (2017). 2016 showed that all else being equal, M can handily beat Sparty in his own house (yes, 2016 was a down year for them, but they still played pretty well in that game). And even though it was Nebraska, the O-line did a great job in both opening running lanes and in pass protecting.
Keep improving, and the Michigan men "up front" will become much like the Wisconsin O-line last night in the Iowa game. When Hornibrook dropped back to pass, his O-linemen just escorted the Iowa rushers around behind him, giving him time to step up in the pocket and throw for his +200 yards and 3 TDs. And according to the stats I saw, Hornibrook wasn't sacked once.
Now when Wisconsin comes to AA whether they'll escort Rashan and Chase in the same manner is wholly another question. They'll no doubt find that a much tougher row to hoe.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
I could not agree more with that. I’ve got two buddies that are as rabid MSU fans as I am an M fan. Indeed, they have lost that cockiness and swagger. They go into every game thinking they could lose. When I look at that team, the players strike me as undisciplined and there seems to be something missing. The honeymoon seems over with Dantonio.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
This is partially correct, but Michigan has to beat MSU for the worm to really turn. This is the case every season.
A loss to Michigan proves the fears are true and everything spirals out of control. A win over Michigan, no matter how fluky or weather-induced, will give them confidence to finish strong. I don't know of any exceptions to that rule since the 90s.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Penn state is looking like they are starting to heat it up a little bit. Next week when they play Ohio state will be interesting, night games in happy valley are tough
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
PSU trailed Illinois 24-21 in the third quarter. Then they took the lead and absolutely ran up the score in the fourth.
September 23rd, 2018 at 9:14 PM ^
PSU has OSU, MSU, IU and Iowa over the next month. No way that team does better than 2-2. Iowa owns psu.
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
I agree. However, I'm wary BDOUE (the Bright Day Of Unrealistic Expectations).
September 23rd, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
We played Indiana at home before OSU 2 years ago as well. It was the JOK snow game.
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
And it hasn't mattered when that game has been played. Nearly every game against Indiana this past decade has been a stressful nail-biter.
We couldn't hold on to a 10 point 4th quarter lead last year and needed overtime to win.
Needed overtime three years ago.
Played a close game in 2016 when Wilton was hurt.
We needed heroics from Tate Forcier to pull out a miracle in RichRod's second year.
The next year we only won because we were the last team to have the ball in a game of no defense on either side.
And although the 2013 game wouldn't be considered "close," it was disheartening to sit in the stadium that day and watch Indiana put up 47 points on our defense with shocking ease on most of their drives.
Indiana games now are very stressful.
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
Kevin Wilson caveat on a few of those games though. I think IU’s 3-0 start was a bit of fool’s gold. NW worries me more than IU this year. But I’ve been wrong so many times before that I’m not really sure why I’m typing this.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
I remember when Rudock saved that game for us against Indiana. I miss Jake. He was a lot of fun to watch develop.
September 23rd, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
Chesson too. That was the game Rudock learned to hit deep throws.
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^
Beat NW
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
No cupcakes for a while but not the murderers row we thought before the season. Hopefully we can have Soloman back before MSU and Black back for PSU.
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
That's my hope too. Good boosts late in the season when teams start to get banged up
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^
Ok, Black had surgery.
If it was a lis franc fracture with surgery his season would be over, so we can rule that out.
That means it was likely Jones fracture. That has 6 week healing time for returning to play with good union of the fracture.
So I think his prognosis is actually best case scenario given the fracture. Hopefully we hear he's out of cast/boot in the next week or 2.
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
You know whose schedule lays out really nicely?
Notre Dame's.
September 23rd, 2018 at 6:57 PM ^
Holy cow! The traditional murderers row is not so scary looking at the moment.
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
Get ready for an annoying, possibly anxiety ridden MSU game.
Their game plan might be similar to ND’s, lob it deep on 50/50 balls and use their mobile QB.
And that game is between Wisconsin and PSU, two good teams at home. This is still a hard schedule.
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^
The schedule has always been the schedule. What’s changed is we won three in a row and have shown improvement on the OL and the D is settling back into top 5 form. We appear to be as good or better than each of our “murdere’s row” of opponents (MSU, Wiscy and PSU) with the two toughest at home. I like our chances of being 10-1 heading into the Shoe.
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
I thought we wanted Harbaugh fired after week 1?
Someone has to tell me how I am supposed to feel.
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
Fans i.e. Fanatics tend to over-react to their teams performance. The Notre Dame was disappointing and demoralizing to many but I saw silver linings in that game that led me to believe this season will be different than recent years.
September 23rd, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
PSU and OSU look like the huge games going forward.
yesterday was the most dominant performance in years.
I am thinking DPJ is as good a punt returner as Jabrill. Time will tell as we really need an easy TD against PSU or OSU via punt return
September 23rd, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^
It's amazing what a couple blowout wins can do. Week one, people were wondering if we'll win 6 games. Now, 10-1 against OSU. Winning cures all ills. :)