September 1st, 2018 at 4:10 PM ^
They got chili dogs over there?
September 1st, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
I don’t gamble but isn’t that really still a coin flip?
September 1st, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
The significance is that the away team went from +1 to -2.5. Still a close spread, but neutral site we’d be favored nearly a TD. If it was at home, even more.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^
Eh, line has been jumping around and ND was favored recently. Just means lots of money flooding in on Michigan
September 1st, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^
Generally the sharp, line moving money comes in either right at the open or right before the game. This is a good sign for us that the big money bettors believe in a Michigan W.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:23 PM ^
The line moved in ND's favor when there were rumors that Gary and Higdon were hurt. It's become pretty clear that that isn't the case and since then it's moved back.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
The way i see it, a coin flip would be about +3 because that’s what Home field advantage is worth, maybe more for a night game. A 5 1/2 point swing from that is sizable
September 1st, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^
No, a coin flip would be about 0, because the coin already knows which team is playing at home. If the game was pick'em, then the line assumes that Michigan is three points better on a neutral field, but the game isn't played on a neutral field, so that advantage in team quality is neutralized by HFA. +2.5 assume that Michigan is five or six points better on a neutral field, but, again, that the game isn't being played on a neutral field.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
Agreed. But a 3.5 point move, on the day of the game, is a pretty big swing.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
I thought Michigan was already at 1 today. If so, the move to 2.5 isn't all that dramatic.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
Not so much.
Basically, home field is worth 3 points. So if this were being played in AA, Michigan would be -5.5 which is hardly a coin flip.
Betters think Michigan is the better team tonight.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:17 PM ^
-8.5 at home actually.
September 1st, 2018 at 6:55 PM ^
Math. It's hard.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:12 PM ^
Notre Dame watched the hype video we released this morning. Wimbush decided to stay in bed.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
Yup sitting in the sports book right now
September 1st, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
So you're the one who swung the spread. How much you lay out?
September 1st, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
I put a nice chunk down. I bet it on Thursday tho.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^
I never bet on teams i have an emotional interest in. Im barely adult enough to make it through games when i don't have money on the line!
September 1st, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^
This. That sums it up for me. I'm actually not adult enough to watch Michigan football.
September 1st, 2018 at 7:17 PM ^
"I'm actually not adult enough to watch Michigan football."
I genuinely feel sorry for anyone who is. The great thing about Michigan sports is that they give you permission to have those intense feelings about something that doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things, just like you did as a kid
September 1st, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
Perhaps they know something about ND RB Dexter Williams?
September 1st, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
ND folks have been saying he’s out 4 games for months now
September 1st, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
Kelly said he will be dressed and on the sidelines at kickoff tonight.
"Then we'll see what happens."
September 1st, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^
ND bloggers and insiders have been saying for months now that they expect him to be suspended for this game. While it’s never been 100% confirmed, I’ve ready they’d be shocked if he was playing tonight.
I don’t think anything has happened injury wise. If it had we’d know by now. I just think bettors largely think Michigan is the better team tonight.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^
Thanks guys. I too read MgoBlog and thus I too know that insiders have said for months that he’s suspended and that Kelly has said he will be dressed on the sideline and “we’ll see”. I’m suggesting that perhaps gamblers now feel certain he won’t play despite Kelly’s continued comments that it’s possible he will play.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:02 PM ^
I think part of Kelly’s vagueness is due to it not being a direct infraction with the football team, but rather a direct infraction with the university itself. Kelly isn’t permitted to comment much on those types of issues.
As much as I dislike ND, they don’t screw around when it comes to issues that could damage their reputation as an academic institution. They suspend players that deserve to be suspended, and boot the kids who should be booted.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:17 PM ^
The chicken factor
September 1st, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
Somebody in Vegas knows something!
September 1st, 2018 at 4:20 PM ^
All it means is that lots of money has come in on Michigan over the last 24 hours. Nothing more.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
Change in weather.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
Or the more likely scenario is:
Vegas caught word that Zordich was spotted hanging out poolside, which obviously means that his DBs are the best there ever were and he has not a worry in the world.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
Don’t care if it moves to -14. Just win baby. Let’s get this season started off right.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^
Huge Move.
Money on M.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
Mayweather must be in Vegas ?
September 1st, 2018 at 5:03 PM ^
Or Larry Page.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:27 PM ^
**Mayweater
September 1st, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
It's just public money, doesn't mean anything...
September 1st, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^
Public money doesn’t move lines like this. Large individual bets move lines, especially really late in the game like this. It’s not public money, it’s some larger bets from professional guys.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:02 PM ^
Money moves lines. Period. I'm not sure if it's sharps or public, but either is anybody else.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:05 PM ^
I’ll rephrase - public money is never unbalanced enough to move lines to this degree on the day of the game. The volume is already quite large and there wouldn’t be a major change in public betting patters on the day of. The pattern here clearly suggests sharps coming in with some decently sized cash on Michigan.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:28 PM ^
This is wrong, a majority of public money comes in on game day and can absolutely moves lines, especially being the biggest game of the day. This isn't a big line move yet, but if it gets to the magical -3 then we're talking big money.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
It just means a bunch of people wanted to make money on ND -1 and bet at the last minute, which swung the line.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:44 PM ^
Eh... honestly, given the history of this series, I'd rather NOT be a narrow Vegas favorite.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^
It means nothing. I can't believe people still don't know how this works.
September 1st, 2018 at 4:48 PM ^
Sounds like you don’t know, my friend. Vegas lines these days are very efficient. If the books are off from what advanced, predictive stats tell big money bettors, they will get slammed. It’s not always about even money on both sides. The books will take the dumb public’s money if the public is being dumb. It’s about protecting major downside risk that would come by showing bad lines to professional bettors. Vegas lines are extraordinarily strong predictors of games on the whole (obviously not every time, but still), and this is good news for Michigan.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
Think there were actually 2 moves, first from Mich +1 to Mich -1, then to Mich -2.5. This late that is a fairly big move on such a big game that would have a lot of money already bet on it.
Apparently then the rumor that Shea tweaked his ankle this week that I heard about 30 minutes ago, seems less likely true, which makes me feel better.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:21 PM ^
What's this about Shea's ankle?
September 1st, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^
It's one lousy rumor which I haven't been able to confirm with anyone. The guy reporting it is saying a friend who is in South Bend is saying it. I don't know the first guy very well and I don't know his friend at all. Probably irresponsible of me to even mention it but my point was with the line moving in our direction, I think that reduces the likelihood it is true.
September 1st, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
No. I don't care what the advanced stats tell big money bettors. The line moves as the money goes. In a close line like this, it's more of a guess and nothing to base anything off of it. And If bettors want to bet on ND, the line will move again.