5 Star 2020 OG Justin Rogers to Commit 'Soon' (probably not good news)
Intro
- According to his 247 Page, the Oak Park, MI recruit is ranked 14th in the nation.
- Announcement was made on his Twitter. As per his tweet, whatever you do, don't ask him why.
- A pinned tweet from earlier this month names a need to 'feed his family' as a primary driver in his decision.
Summary
Per Maize n' Brew, it's not looking up for the good guys. Ohio State held the vast majority of crystal balls, and Georgia was a very distant second. The rest of his listed 'warm interest' schools are south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Some Thoughts
This looks to be the third deeply annoying in-state OL defection in two cycles. With Ohio State's recent woes, you've got to think Georgia is the front-runner. There's plenty of time between now and the first Class of 2020 Signing Day, but the schools in this kid's recruitment makes me wonder if there's some fishy business going on here. On the other hand, Michigan's main competition both went to the CFP, so Michigan may have lost out straight up. If that track record is important, maybe a good year from Michigan with strong OL performance turns the tide.
August 20th, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^
2020, man. 2020.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^
In 2024 my student loans will be paid off....
August 20th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
I graduated in 2005 and am still paying my loan. I got the balance to under $6,000, though!
August 20th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
I'd take 20/20... I'm like 20/400
August 20th, 2018 at 9:51 AM ^
Just win baby. Also could not care less about '20 kids hell bent on leaving the state.
Commit and then be silent.
August 20th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
The kid just wants to leave the state for college. It isn’t out of the ordinary at all. Some kids don’t want to stay home and go to Michigan. It happens. I don’t see why we have to get all worked up about this every time it happens. It’s not like we are unable to go nationally recruit top players.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
People lose their minds when Michigan loses a top ranked kid out of Michigan. But then act like Michigan should be pulling top ranked recruits out of Georgia (Hinton, Solomon), or Ohio (ever, but Rumler this year), NJ (ok, most good kids are leaving NJ), Texas (Filigia). It happens. Kids leave the state, even when they have great programs at home with great history.
You can't act like it's unacceptable when it happens to you and act like it's the expectation when it happens to other schools. Sometimes kids just don't want to stay home, sometimes they just don't connect with Michigan, sometimes there are other factors. It happens. That's life. It shouldn't be a huge deal. You want these kids, no doubt, but sometimes it doesn't work.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^
It is a problem when there are a few decent recruits in Michigan. Texas can afford to lose kids to outside schools because Texas has a gazzillion D1 recruits.
August 20th, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^
Whoosh (pretty much).
August 20th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
And obviously Michigan can afford to lose a few top ranked in-state kids because we can also go out of state and pick up top players. You’re putting too much emphasis on WHERE these kids are coming from. It really doesn’t matter.
Some kids want to leave home and spread their wings. Some kids want to go south and enjoy the weather, campus, and the women. It happens. Obviously you’d like to keep them here but it ultimately doesn’t matter.
Rogers is also a guard, which Michigan has gone heavy on recently. So it’s a player at a position we can afford to lose.
August 20th, 2018 at 6:01 PM ^
Michigan has great recruits it just seems like don't like to rank our kids higher than a 3 star.
August 21st, 2018 at 8:44 AM ^
Not really. Michigan only has 20 or so P5 caliber players most years. Some of which are “P5” type kids who get picked up by teams like Syracuse, Mizzou or Iowa State.
Even from the group of P5 players, many never pan out. If you look back at previous classes, you’ll tend to find that only a handful of those guys had meaningful college careers
August 20th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
Exactly, it's always the same people that complain either way. If Michigan is recruiting well in-state, but not out of state, they complain about out of state recruiting. If we don't get the top in state guys, but get good recruits nationally, they complain about in state recruiting. Either way we're getting good recruits
August 20th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
So, I generally agree with your take here, but:
Is it ok if I "act" like it's disappointing? Not suggesting anybody should be fired, or the world is ending, or Michigan will never get another recruit. All that said: I'm disappointed in missing out on some of these outstanding local kids, especially in an area of need.
But clearly, as more than one person said: Winning cures all these ills. Let's go out and get 10-11 in the W column this year and suddenly these things are healed.
Rob
August 20th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
Just Wow! Milk loves this post! Oh no he’ll sign his letter soon and be on the field before you know it.
August 20th, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^
I'm honestly confused by what you've written.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
Seems pretty straightforward to me. Milk loves the post.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:36 AM ^
Reading is fundamental.
August 20th, 2018 at 9:53 AM ^
this feels like a recruit that doesn't seem to be good for us.
I agree with a previous poster that he this recruit has priorities that are inconsistent with Michigan's program. . .
August 20th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
Not everyone cares about academics.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
Sharp kid. He saw right through the myth that a good education will help you to "feed [your] family." Take the money and run.
August 20th, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^
Nobody deserves bad news on a Monday. On the plus side, 2019 4 Star FL DE Mike Morris has 100% M Crystal Ball Predictions right now :D
August 20th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
Kid wants out of Michigan and the added value at U of M does not line up with what Rogers values(said he wanted to go South anyways). If he ends up in Columbus, "going South" was more than likely just fluff.
Don't think we should waste time talking about him unless he reaches out to the coaching staff for anything further.....
August 20th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
"going South" is a $ynonym for $omething el$e
August 20th, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^
He’s going to ‘feed his family’...not coming here.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:15 AM ^
So Georgia it is!
August 20th, 2018 at 10:27 AM ^
Sure would like him to elaborate on that statement. Perhaps he's suggesting the job market is better elsewhere for a college student that also shoehorns football into his life?
August 20th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^
He can pretty easily say his goal is to be best prepared for the NFL as early as possible. So looking for playing time and proven development. Pretty easy to explain away.
I mean I would pick Wisconsin if I were him but it doesn't strengthen Michigan's case.
August 20th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^
Our coaching staff can provide just as much NFL preparation as any team in the NCAA. Who knows right now if playing time for him in 2020 is or isn't an option? Once Gary and Winovich are gone it is possible. If UM is truly a meritocracy it's possible for him to play as a freshman. Gary played his first year so clearly there's precedent. I don't think any of these are reasonable explanations for that comment.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^
Is there a way to reasonably read that comment as anything other than bag-men??
August 20th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
If Michigan gets to the playoff this year the recruiting will take care of itself.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:19 AM ^
If Michigan gets to the playoff this year then I think it already has.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:15 AM ^
Probably Georgia. Maybe USC. Definitely not Michigan or MSU. Kid wants to leave the mitten/area.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
I think this has come up in other recruiting threads, where sometimes it is as simple as someone wanting to go elsewhere for school, which is completely legitimate. If you live along the I-696 corridor as this kid does in Oak Park, I don't know that Washtenaw County is sufficiently elsewhere.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:34 AM ^
Michigan is not even in his most recent top 14 or 15 group. We werent even under consideration anymore. I would have said that he's likely to go to OSU, but with his other top group and the shit OSU is going through right now, I expect him to land in Georgia. Georgia must be doing something different for them to pull so many top ranked OL from the north. Isaiah Wilson, Xavier Truss, and possible Justin Rogers too.
August 20th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
"Something different"... What ever could you mean?
August 20th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
“Georgia must be doing something different...”
Outside the possibility of paying recruits, negative recruiting, using Hugh Freeze/Rick Pitino techniques; Athens is a nice place to live and UGA has won something meaningful, recently.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:35 AM ^
Wow.
The 2018 season hasn't even started yet.
Shea F'N Patterson is going to be All Pro for the Colts by 2020.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
He was never coming here. It is what it is, don't know why people are talking about values and taking side swipes at this kid that his values essentially aren't good enough for Michigan or something. Winning will solve far more problems than anything else so just do that this year.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
Bill Martin's decision holding Lloyd on another two years, is still reverberating.... he single-handedly caused this decade, and contributed indirectly to msu's improvement.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^
Harbaugh needs to close the talent gap. Yup 2017 was a good class, 2018 was average at best and the 2016 dudes are almost out of here. OSU is killing it in 2019 and 2020. Get out of the Midwest too. Meyer is all over the country and his best athletes are not from the Ohio area. Move on to talent rich states and start recruiting like a coach who makes $7 mil a year.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
I wonder how a guy who can't play football before September 2020 is going to "feed his family" by committing in 2018.
August 20th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
Maybe he just has an “advanced” way of looking at things.
August 20th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
2020 is a long time away. He could change his mind. And if he doesn't choose Michigan, there's other OLinemen. Life goes on.
Next?
August 20th, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
I'm liking the mazenbrew website. If only they had a better message board community and system...
August 20th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
Beat Notre Dame.
August 20th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
"feed his family?" Sounds like he didn't need much convincing from the Georgia bagman
If he goes commits to OSU though, I honestly will lose all faith in humanity. Like who would possibly commit there right now given their circumstances
August 20th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
I think Logan Brown and Devontae Dobbs are both overrated from the 2019 class, Brown more so than Dobbs. As much as I think they're overrated, Rogers is the real deal. Best O line prospect from this state in a long time, he's going to be a dominant college player. Wanted to leave the state the whole process, neither MSU nor us were ever in it for him.
August 20th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
With the incoming 2019 OL class Rogers may not see the field for a while. I'll trade JR for MH straight up with Georgia any day of the week. Hopefully Myles commits then gets in Rogers' ear.