Westgate Las Vegas CFP Final 4 Odds: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Michigan
Westgate gambling odds have Michigan making it into the College Football Playoffs Final 4. Westgate claims it is the largest sports gambling book in the world. They have Georgia, a team many think have a real shot at the National Championship this year, at 5th, just outside the CFP Final 4. Most people don't know though, that Georgia lost 2/3's of it special teams, and 2 deep players, to graduation and the draft. That means they had many experienced players last year. There probably won't be 2 teams from the SEC in the playoffs this year. But, maybe 2 teams from the BIG 10? Maybe so. Of course, these are gambling odds, which take into account the bettors perception. These Oddsmakers know how to make money. Vegas looks pretty rich.
But realistically, the CFP Final 4 could happen for Michigan this year? It could. After all, Coach Harbaugh is "Captain Comeback".
Wastgate Odds:
LINK: https://twitter.com/Johnny_Detroit/status/1009147715526250496/photo/1
HatTip to MaizeNBrew for original LINK: https://www.maizenbrew.com/football/2018/6/20/17480430/michigan-opens-with-3-1-odds-for-playoff-appearance
Photo: ShutterStock
Photo: ShotterStock
Photo: Vincent Laforet
I'm not a gambler but I think 3/2 odds for Georgia are better than 3/1 odds for Michigan.
Washington is also 3/1. So even setting aside the fact that odds are not an endorsement of probability (which you correctly noted), this doesn't really peg us as the 4th playoff team.
Since I can't edit my replies I will have to keep adding on with new ones... I see no value on M at 3/1. Says less about my confidence in the team and more about the fact you will get way better odds if they lose one of Wisconsin/PSU/MSU. M is likely still around 3/1 if they cruise through the Maryland game. So why not wait until we can see some games and have some data points on whether that's a smart bet?
I would probably play USC at 10/1 and UCF at 40/1. Might be longshots but if either stays undefeated through week 7 you aren't getting anything close to those numbers, imho.
You sure you're not a gambler?
I was just in Vegas 2 weeks ago... UM is 12/1 to win the Championship.
Terrible odds, but yeah they know what they're doing because I put a hundie on it. Just like the other sucker bet there.... Cowboys to win the SB.
Yeah, this is a math fail by the OP.
It's not a math fail. Look at the list in the posted photo.
I did see the numbers. Michigan is at 4 in the list.
It's possible (but unlikely). There are scenarios that would favor both OSU and Michigan making the playoff.
It's possible (but unlikely). There are scenarios that would favor both OSU and Michigan making the playoff.
You're list shows Alabama, Clemson, OSU and Georgia as the favorites for the CFP
Edit - *your*. I autotyped "you're" and that shit slays me. I haven't figured out how to edit my posts on the new version of this website
List is not sorted in order of favorites. Not sure why because it's close.
Michigan is tied for 5th mostly likely with Washington at 3/1. This is right in line with all the other odds we've seen from the books (5th most likely to win it all).
I think it might be sorted on number of bets placed.
I have zero experience with placing bets. I was going by the order in the list. Georgia would be in the top 4 at 3/2. And I think that's influenced more by bettors perception, as I don't think Georgia will be in the top 4 at the end of the year. The SEC Championship in Atlanta last year was a virtually home game for them. They had lost to Auburn at Auburn.
The idea that oddsmakers don't know about Georgia's roster changes is hilarious.
I didn't say the oddsmakers don't know.
Do you see that I said, " Of course, these are gambling odds, which take into account the bettors perception. These Oddsmakers know how to make money. Vegas looks pretty rich." You can see I'm saying Vegas will be making money from people betting not knowing.
The popular story on UGA is that they hit the playoff jackpot with a freshman QB. What that story doesn't tell is that they had something like 34 seniors on the two-deep across the team. That is a shitload of experience to surround a freshman at QB. A freshman that you told to hand off the ball to a pair of studly senior RB's. A freshman that you only trusted to throw short sideline passes for most of the year, until he gained some experience while relying on one of the best running games in CFB.
UGA is a really good team, and Fromm did one helluva job at QB for them. But the crap Harbaugh received for not having a freshman QB get him into the playoffs last year is complete horseshit...
Shouldn't Kansas be more like 1,000,000/1 ?
While i'm totally on the Harbaugh, Shea, Black, dpj, higdon TEs and the entire defense train, we dont have double the chance of making the playoffs that GA does.
That would be half the odds, not double.
Really can’t see a scenario where Michigan and OSU make the playoff with the SEC bias with the Comittee. Let’s say a one loss B1G champion UM makes the playoff. Do you really think a one loss OSU also would be in over Big 12 and PAC 12 champions?
If this happened, the playoffs would have to expand to 8 teams as the college football world would explode with criticism and complaining.
They probably are not getting in if they don't beat Ohio State.
They'll have to win three out of ND, Wisc, MSU, PSU and OSU to even have a shot. And not trip up elsewhere.
I don't think the odds here are analogous to top-4 finishes, but it still generally shows that Michigan is considered one of the better teams in the country, which is a good sign considering last year's less than spectacular end.
There's really almost no way we get in with OSU if we also lose to them as well. The only way I could see it happening is if:
1) We beat everyone else we play, and convincingly.
2) Another tightly contested OSU game that goes down to the last player where either team could've legitimately won and both traded haymakers the entire game. Lose by less than three.
And now the things that are completely out of Michigan's control:
3) Your Big XII and Pac-12 champs each have at least two losses.
4) OSU destroys a top-10 Wisconsin team in the Big Ten title game. Makes our loss look better.
5) No other "convincing" 1-loss teams in the SEC or ACC, or every other team in those conferences has at least two losses. So teams like Georgia, FSU, ND or Miami would all need to have either 2+ losses, or one really bad loss late in the season.
6) No undefeated G5 teams that have convincing OOC wins, like a Boise State.