Las Vegas releases 2018 CFB Win Totals
Michigan opens up at O/U 9 wins for the year.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/las-vegas-releases-2018-college-football-win-totals-for-all-129-fbs-teams/
Big Ten
- Ohio State: 10.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
- Wisconsin: 10 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
- Penn State: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
- Michigan: 9 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
- Michigan State: 9 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
- Iowa: 7.5 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
- Minnesota: 6 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
- Nebraska: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
- Northwestern: 6 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
- Purdue: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
- Indiana: 5 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
- Maryland: 4.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
- Rutgers: 4 (Over -110, Under -110)
- Illinois: 3.5 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
Seems reasonable given the schedule and unknowns. Should be an exciting year!
Over
O/U of 9 seems about right for us. Tough schedule. I would say anything above 9 wins and it will be a very successful season. Anything below 9 wins will be a disappointment for this team.
At the end of the season, there will be many that blow up if we have 9 wins. Even the same people who predict it early in the season. Some of the 8 win predictors will be salty, too.
I've seen this movie before.
Yeah. This team could win 11 games and if it wasn't the "right" 11 wins they'd freak out.
Yeah, beating up Air Force en route to 6th place in the Big !0 last year sure was a satisfying season /s
The type of win DOES matter. Purdue was the only win last year over a team that just barely squeaked above .500 Did that 8th win make up for MSU, Wisky, PSU, OSU, SC?
In a world of 12-15 game seasons, 9, 10 wins can still be a disappointment. Rivalries, bowls game, quality wins will always mean more to me than a number.
Under on Penn State and Wisconsin, hard over on Purdue
Close calls on PSU and Wisconsin. For Wisconsin, that west is still weak and they get Nebraska early before the team will gel under Frost. PSU has a rougher schedule. Hard under on them. MSU, OSU, UM then head over to play Wisconsin, Iowa. I can see them losing to the East powers and splitting IA/WI. Purdue has a lot of 50/50 games. They will be a fun team to watch
Wisconsin will lose at Michigan and at Penn State, and I think they will split at Iowa and at Purdue. I think, despite Wisconsin returning almost their entire offense, that the West will be much closer this year, and I could certainly see Purdue and even Iowa winning the West.
Tough to see this. Wisconsin returns nearly everyone and, while I think a tougher West will prevent them from a perfect regular season again, 9-10 wins seems about right to me, and winning the West.
Wisconsin returns nearly everyone on offense, but they lose a good chunk of their defense. I think 9 wins is right, but all 3 losses will be in-conference. 6-3 in conference is not super strong, and the West team they lose to out of Iowa and Purdue could very well match that mark and then have the head-to-head advantage, sending them to Indy. If Wisconsin goes 10-2 they are going back to Indy, but I think they're 9-3. Then it's just up to either Iowa or Purdue to match 6-3 in conference play.
Closer than it seems for Purdue though. They should be pretty good, but they have a tough schedule. Two P5 opponents out of 3 in the nonconf schedule (although they do host both) and their conference schedule is pretty tough. They only have four homes games and those four are against OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Ouch. They'll be fortunate to win two of those (cuz they're not beating OSU or Wisconsin). Then even if they win all three non conference games, they'd still need to win two road games to get to seven.
That's probably the right line. FPI projects them at 5.4-6.6 wins (not sure if that's a 75th/25th percentile projection) so the advanced metrics are right on this O/U. Bill Connelly's S&P+ preview isn't out yet.
So what's the fan reaction if they're 9-3 and 3rd place in the East again? Good enough? Failure in my eyes, this team needs 11 to fend off the dogs.
9-3 would be a failure, but people on here will spin it and make it seem like a successful season because of the schedule or some other excuses. It’s year 4. I don’t care about the schedule. It’s time to win the East and make it to Indy. That’d be a successful season, imo.
"9-3 would be a failure, but people on here will spin it and make it seem like a successful season because of the schedule or some other excuses. It's year 4."
Should Harbaugh be fired then? And if so, would you change your avatar?
I think if they finish third in the east again, then his seat should at least get a bit warm. Fired? No. But maybe what I’ll do tho, is change my avatar to some cool skull like you have. That thing is sweet.
So it's a failure of a season, in year 4, but you're fine giving him some more time to...do what, exactly? Do you think he'd suddenly get better in year 5, with another round of lazy writers concern trolling about his coaching abilities and nameless commenters calling him a "failure"?
Hyperbole is fine in doses, but threads like these bring it out in buckets and it just douses every comment and waits for the hot takes to set it aflame.
You don't just fire someone based on wins/losses to spite them. You do it because you think a replacement could do better.
Name 1 person you think would actually come to Michigan and would do better than Harbaugh? I'll wait...
Well I clearly said I don’t think he should be fired so not sure who you’re talking to. But Chris Peterson would be a damn good replacement in about a decade.
My reply was actually to Don, and I started writing it before yours was there. He would be a good choice, but would he come to Michigan? Would he leave a weak P5 conference to come coach in the hardest division in college football? To a school that would have had a coach not last more than 4 years since Carr? Who just fired the coach that was seen as being their savior?
If Stephen Ross is willing to pay Saban and Belichick $25 million each to come be co-HC, we should fire Harbaugh today. Personally, I don't think Michigan can do better than a HC that 1/2 of current NFL teams would fire their coach to have. No matter what his record is against rivals.
Sorry, I couldn’t tell who you replied to. I doubt he would, but I just think he’s a top 5 coach and would love to have him in AA when Harbaugh decides to hang it up.
Peterson isn't leaving the West Coast. If he wanted to do that, the starting point would have been Boise. He has no recruiting base to work with out here. And he runs a very different offense that Bo ever ran - and we know what happened to the last (only) guy that tried to run something not from Bo's playbook...
Forget it. Harbaugh is the coach here until he leaves of his own free will. Anything short of that and we're re-hiring Brady Hoke.
You're inferring incorrectly if you think my question implied I believe Harbaugh should be fired after a 9-3. I do not. Nor would I if we go 8-4, which is my own guess for our season.
Harbaugh is not infallible or perfect, but he deserves—based on his record—a much, much longer leash than either RR or Hoke got.
You're right about Peterson. That's a fantasy that ain't happening, ever.
I'm not completely sold on the Peterson hype. For one, his out of conference schedule with Washington has been extremely weak. Having to play ND as we do will affect his progression. And two, the PAC isn't really a strong conference to begin with. The league features Herm Edwards as a coach and long gone are the day of Oregon and USC being the top echelon teams.
You mean the Washington head coach who is one year younger than Harbaugh? Because a 63-year-old HC doesn't seem like a great move.
I assume you mean someone else.
I didn’t realize Peterson was that old. He looks much younger than that.
This is the silliest argument on this board. This notion that Harbaugh is the ONLY coach for Michigan is stupid. If he doesn’t get it done, you go out and hire the most qualified guy for the gig. You just don’t keep Harbaugh for fear you can’t do better.
The weeping, wailing, and teeth-gnashing over M’s record last year and its inability to beat regularly its principal rivals since Jim Harbaugh became coach seems to forget that in 3 years of coaching M football, Jim has not had a top-flight QB.
Jake Rudock was good, but remember he came to M because he lost his starting job at Iowa. Speight had his moments, but even before the Purdue injury questions arose about his ability to lead the team. O’Korn? --- well, the less said the better. When last fall WI LB Andy van Ginkle blindsided Brandon Peters in Madison after Peters had released the football and hit Peters so hard his head bounced off the turf a couple times (a cheap shot that wasn’t called --- to this day I know not why), the bowl game showed that Brandon never regained whatever form he had before his injury.
And there was a reason Peters didn’t get the ball earlier in the season: I think the term was “command of the huddle." Coach Jim didn’t think Peters had it, but eventually had no choice but to put him in the huddle and keep him there until he got knocked out of it.
Now, for the first time, Coach Jim has a 5-star QB who’s shown he has the moxie to take a team on his shoulders and win games. I was in the stands for Coach Jim’s entire M career, including the Hawaii game. Jim’s gutsy play inspired the entire offense, if not the entire team. All the players knew he was good; they knew he had the “right stuff,” and took their cue from him. Coach Jim knows what to look for in a QB --- maybe for the first time during his M coaching career, in Shea Patterson he’s found it.
Don’t judge Jim’s record as a coach until you see what he can do with a top-flight QB.
How can you not care about the schedule? Makes no sense.
Agreed. 11 wins or bust. 10 wins would be barely acceptable.
For me, we need to win MSU. OSU will be tough given that the game is in the toilet bowl but it's about damn time we beat their ass. Keep getting close to winning that game and some bullshit takes it away from us. No more excuses this year. Hopefully we don't lose the easy ones. If we go 9-3 but beat MSU and OSU, that is fine by me.
MSU is absolutely a must win game. However, in your scenario Mich would beat MSU and OSU but lose games like PSU, WISC, and ND. Would feel like a major missed opportunity of a season considering those 2 wins but 2 home losses. Not sure it gets the program to where we want.
I agree that would suck, there is no real answer here except win 11 games lol. The only team I would least have problems losing to is Wisc. Screw PSU, ND, MSU and most definitely OSU.
9-3 is a gray area for me. It depends on where the three losses come.
Given the schedule, I would be fine with 10-2 and a New Year's Six appearance. Needless to say, I'd be much happier with 12-1 or 12-2 and a B1G title. Realistically that seems tough but doable.
How does Penn State have 9.5? Didn't they lose Barkley and that TE?
MSU is at 9?
PSU: A schedule with every tough game at home except for us + McSorely + recent success + good recent recruiting
I'm still taking the under and have them at 9-3. Close call, however, they will lose in Ann Arbor, then I think they lose to OSU and drop one out of Pitt, MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa (I'm going to go out on a limb and say they lose the rivalry game to Pitt).
I think they lose in A2 and lose one more of MSU,OSU, Wisconsin. Could obviously drop another but Pitt sucks and they should be close to 10 pt favorites vs Iowa at home I would think. They have three instant impact players coming in this season after a solid 2017 class. I'm still a little skeptical of Franklin still, but they should be well equipped to be in the conversation for the east title--at least as much as we are given their home-favored scheduled.
Pitt doesn't have PSU's talent, obviously, but Pitt kept the game close last year by dominating time of possession, and this PSU team should be a little worse and this Pitt team a little better. Narduzzi, from his time under Mork, developed Dantonio's ability to keep games close against teams with far superior talent. That's how Pitt won the Miami game last year against a team that was probably slightly overrated, but still superior nonetheless. I doubt PSU runs away with that game.
I think 9.5 is a really tough (i.e. accurate) line for Penn State. I think 9-3, but could easily see 10-2, as well. I think they have a pretty hard ceiling at 10-2, though, based on their losses and their schedule. I can't see them winning more than 2 games out of Michigan, OSU, MSU, and Wisconsin.
Pitt doesn't have PSU's talent, obviously, but Pitt kept the game close last year by dominating time of possession, and this PSU team should be a little worse and this Pitt team a little better. Narduzzi, from his time under Mork, developed Dantonio's ability to keep games close against teams with far superior talent. That's how Pitt won the Miami game last year against a team that was probably slightly overrated, but still superior nonetheless. I doubt PSU runs away with that game.
I think 9.5 is a really tough (i.e. accurate) line for Penn State. I think 9-3, but could easily see 10-2, as well. I think they have a pretty hard ceiling at 10-2, though, based on their losses and their schedule. I can't see them winning more than 2 games out of Michigan, OSU, MSU, and Wisconsin.
Seems fair with our schedule, the optimist in me takes the over for Big Blue. Betting a HARD over for Maryland; Piggy/Kasim should be able to light up the scoreboard and get them to 6-7 Wins.
Don't use "Big Blue" here unless you're a Kentucky fan.
Or work for IBM.
"Big Blue" I hope you are referring to Kentucky. I hate when people call Michigan, "Big Blue", WTF????
Nine wins for Kentucky or IBM seems like a stretch considering this isn't basketball or computer chess.
MOMENTARY LAPSE. I blame Lee Corso. I actually knew it looked wrong when i typed it and still didnt correct. Going with Big Maize now to only half untwist your banana hammocks.
PSU's schedule is a joke. They do have to play Iowa and Wisconsin, but they get those two and MSU and OSU all at home. Tempted to say over for them.
I'm going to say under for OSU (10 wins). Over for us. No wager on MSU (9 wins).
With the new law is there a US based website where I can place a bet on the over?
Depends on where you live and are located when wanting to place said bet.
I could see 9 wins as a possibility, sure, but I cannot even begin to imagine the threads if indeed 9-3 was how the regular season panned out, wherever those three losses came from.
It's not even worth doing a probability matrix right now from some place like Massey because 2017 data is still in those estimates obviously. I am kind of bummed about that when I see threads about odds lately.