Thursday Bracketology
Lunardi link (all standard Lunardi disclaimers apply): http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Bracket Matrix: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Notes:
- Lunardi now has us as a 2 seed, up from a 4 last week.
- 20 brackets on the Bracket Matrix updated yesterday. We were a 2 seed in one (seed-madness), a 3 seed in thirteen of them, a 4 seed in four of them and two idiots have us as a six seed. Said idiots are Drew's Bracketology and GMoneySportspage. I assume Drew and GMoney reside in Columbus or East Lansing. I didn't look because I don't want to click onto their pages.
- Bracket Matrix hasn't updated today, but yesterday's brackets account for the OSU win.
- Lunardi no longer mentions IU, not even in his first four out or his next four out. Thus the B1G has 6 bids.
- The Big 12 has 7 bids in Lundardi's.
- Lundardi also has MSU as a 2 seed.
- He lists Minnesota as an 11 seed, getting pretty close to a First Four game.
- Other B1G: OSU (6 seed); Iowa (5 seed); Wisconsin (4 seed).
- Lunardi projects that we will win the conference.
- OOC games that matter: Iowa St. (4 seed); Stanford (10 seed); Dook (2 seed); FSU (12 seed/First Four/second to last team in the field).
February 13th, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^
I think we all know who we're talking about here.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:29 PM ^
I wonder, does Michigan get a 1 seed if we win out in the regular season? I think it's very possible.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
has a 6 loss team ever been a #1 Seed? Someone more ambitious than me will look it up.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^
You are probably right. But if we do finish 16-2 in the Big Ten, we would have an absolute boatload of Top 25 Kenpom/RPI wins. Hard to argue we would be less deserving than Wichita State, right? Their best win is what, Tennessee?
February 13th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
as an 8-loss team after winning the Big East.
February 13th, 2014 at 5:20 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 7:13 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 9:48 PM ^
MSU was a #1 seed two years ago at 26-7.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 3:16 PM ^
BTT final. It's the last game in the country to finish and there is very little time between it and the selection announcement. I think they generally give more weight to winning the regular season anyway.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 1:42 PM ^
it through,a B1G Regular Season & Conf. Tourney Champion would be a solid 1 seed candidate.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^
that's still pretty unlikely; we'd need a lot of help. witchita state is going to get a 1 seend unless it loses, and even if it loses once, if it's on the road, close and to a decent team, it still might get a 1 seed. syracuse has more or less locked up a 1 seed. arizona has almost locked one up. that leaves one 1 seed and right now it probably goes to florida. other's in the discussion are duke, MSU, kansas and villanova. we can pass MSU, the rest would require significant additional losses.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^
If we win out regular season and Tourney we would be 28-6. There is no way we wouldn't be a 2 seed in that scenario. I think the bad losses Charlotte(neutral) and Indiana (road) would keep us from getting the one seed because of the number of losses. Additionally this is a pretty strong year for 1 seeds- there is no way Wichita, Arizona, or Syracuse are losing a one seed at this point, So we would have to be ahead of that fourth team, Florida, and I don't think we have much claim to that spot even if we win out.
Is it possible in other years that such a record could be a one seed? Maybe if there was a year of total parity with few great top teams. This year we still have two undefeated and a one-loss team that has looked great. and Florida who plays in an awful SEC such that they only have 3-4 hard games a year.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:53 PM ^
If Wichita State loses a game, they probably lose the 1-seed. They've had some close calls lately, and I wouldn't be shocked (HALOL) to see them drop one.
February 13th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
Well played pun Turd. If the Shockers do get shocked, then I think there is a real possibility IF we win out, Which seems impossible.
I just think that Michigan doesn't control whether it gets a one seed, rather the other teams would have to fall back to us. That was more my point. An undefeated Witchita State is way ahead of 6 loss Michigan by virtue of the outrage that would transpire otherwise. If they lose, could be close.
February 13th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^
Makes sense. I don't think we're getting a one-seed, but that's because I think we'd have to win out (including the tournament) and the probability of that is very, very low. If that somehow happens, a 16-2 Big Ten team with regular season and conference tournament titles (and a brutal schedule) would certainly have a shot.
February 14th, 2014 at 10:24 AM ^
the context of a WSU loss matters. i don't think a loss automatically moves them off the 1 line.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^
I'd say you'd have to give it to them...especially over a team like Wichita St. But I'd have a near impossible time seeing that scenario play out. Wishful thinking though.
February 13th, 2014 at 4:48 PM ^
the number 1 seeds are pretty much set in stone. Syracuse, Arizone, Wichita St and Florida
February 13th, 2014 at 7:21 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^
It isn't that Drew.
This is some guy who's a banker up in Minneapolis & is a Gopher fan.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^
that's one more click than he othwerwise would've received today. drew is a bitter, bitter man.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^
He's probably bitter that we have pooped on them the last 5 years at the Barn.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^
I *heart* that bracket.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^
Can somebody please explain the standards necessary to get one's bracket included in this poll? GMoney's bracket is included yet he has no background in basketball that I can see, virtually no traffic to his blog and he's a freaking Canadian for the love of Naismith.
So his "vote" as us 6th counts as much as people who actually do this seriously? That's pretty sad.
February 13th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^
I think BracketMatrix basically peruses the web for various brackets people have compiled, whether established or not. It's reliability comes from it's sample size, basically. And my understanding is that they remove bad brackets at the end of the year if they underperform consistently.
February 13th, 2014 at 5:34 PM ^
Last year he had is at a four seed and was slightly above average picking the entire bracket.
I though he was just an OSU homer as well, but there isn't a ton of evidence for it outside keeping OSU a two after losing three games in January.
February 13th, 2014 at 7:14 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^
I'll take a 2 seed in the WSU region. Thank you very much.
February 13th, 2014 at 2:56 PM ^
I would love to be in Wichita's region. They are this year's Gonzaga. Beating up really bad teams, playing competitively against mediocre-to-bad teams.
They're fancy and undefeated now but they'd be a multi-loss team in the Big Ten or really any other major conference (look at the before and after on OSU and Wisconsin - they'd be undefeated in WSU's league too)
February 13th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 1:59 PM ^
FYI, Lunardi doesn't really "project" conference winners - he just takes the team in front at the time of publication.
February 13th, 2014 at 2:26 PM ^
TeamRankings would agree with Michigan as a #2 seed right now as well, and here's how they stack the rest of the conference (seeds only, not probable matchups):
#2 - Michigan State
#3 - Wisconsin
#5 - Iowa
#5 - Ohio State
#6 - Minnesota
So, six projected bids - the estimated probabilities for any other teams from the conference are not worth mention at this juncture, though they do estimate Indiana as having a 9% chance at a bid right now.
February 13th, 2014 at 2:37 PM ^
as a 6 seed is a joke. I will move whoever they play to the next round.
February 13th, 2014 at 4:38 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 6:26 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^
I hope we are the team that knocks IU out of tourney consideration. I'd love nothing more than to watch that assclown Tom Crean walk off our court in shame, knowing his back-to-back-to-back Sweet 16 plans are ruined.
February 13th, 2014 at 8:06 PM ^
I agree. Crean is a jerk.
February 13th, 2014 at 8:23 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 3:59 PM ^
What has to happen for them to end up in Spokane?
February 13th, 2014 at 4:37 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 6:53 PM ^
February 13th, 2014 at 5:39 PM ^
While I sure wouldn't mind Umich being a #2 in a bracket with WSU, I sure as hell don't like Lunardi's set up with KS as a #3 where we'd play them in the sweet 16 again.
February 13th, 2014 at 5:43 PM ^
I am really hoping that Michigan stays as a 2-3 seed and gets the opportunity to play the potential Sweet 16/Elite 8 games in Indianapolis because it could easily turn into a second Crisler Arena if Michigan was to reach. And it would also tickle me to see MSU have to travel to Anaheim for their S16/E8 games.
February 13th, 2014 at 6:13 PM ^
Media pundits are together and they have us at a 3 seed. MSU is a 2. However they have Illinois vs MSU in the B1G 10 Championship Game (dont know what their simulaton method is).
Right now we are a 3. If we win the B1G 10 we will be a 2. Also, to the person who asked has a 6 loss team ever been a 1 seed, it happened to 2 B1G 10 team the last 2 years. IU (27-6) last year and MSU (27-7) in 2012. Both won the B1G 10 Tournament. However this year with Cuse, WSU, Arizona, Florida having 0,0,1,2 losses, not so likely.
So yea, I think we will end up being 23-7 with will boost us to a 2. I dont know what gonna happen in the BTT. But if we win it all, 2 seed, if we lose, 3 seed. My thoughts.