Perhaps Season Projections on MGoBoard
We've already got 3 "season outlook diaries." Perhaps these should go on mgoboard instead of diaries to keep from diary overload? Just a thought.
On that note, feel free to make your various Michigan football projections in this thread.
- DSU - W - 95%
- PSU - L - 40%
- Illinois - W - 85%
- Purdue - W - 65%
- Wisconsin - L - 35%
- Ohio State - L -30%
October 11th, 2009 at 11:41 AM ^
3-3, in the obvious way. PSU is the best shot for an upset, I'd think.
October 11th, 2009 at 11:53 AM ^
We did a very good job against Iowa outside of some colossal screwups on the TE touchdowns, I think we could have similar success against the Badgers. Another positive is that Scott Tolzien also likes to give away free touchdowns and you have to remember that no matter how much talent and experience that Wisconsin has (new QB, remember), Bret Bielema is still their head coach and that gives any team that plays the Badgers an advantage. That man is a train wreck.
Edit: I think 4-2 down the stretch with an upset over either Wisconsin or PSU.
October 11th, 2009 at 11:58 AM ^
Yeah, I put those numbers up as quick as I could without thinking for a raw reaction. Wisconsin still was the one I questioned the most. Their defense is impressive. The offense can be either end of the good/bad spectrum.
I need to see them play against some one other than Ohio State with a half way adequate defense before I can tell just where they stand. I think it's a better comparison to place Michigan's D to MSU's D rather than OSU's D. I'll admit that UM to MSU might be a fairly weak comparison, but we can see how well Wisconsin did against them. I don't think we're anywhere close to OSU's level.
October 11th, 2009 at 11:53 AM ^
1. DSU - W - 98%
2. PSU - L - 40%
3. Illinois - W - 65%
4. Purdue - W - 75%
5. Wisconsin - L - 35%
6. Ohio State - L - 45%
(I hate predicting OSU rationally)
That is an expected value of 3.58 wins, seems to pass the sniff test.
October 11th, 2009 at 11:54 AM ^
I would be pretty surprised if M didn't steal one of Penn St./Wisco/UOS. I actually think PSU and the Bucks look pretty winnable--although I reserve the right to change my opinion on the last game depending on how the staff can figure out the right DRob/Tate combination. Last night was most likely pretty bad for both of their confidence levels (unless these are extraordinarily resilient 19-year-olds), so it would be nice to see a positive step in that direction against quality opponents.
I have a really hard time seeing M lose to any of DSU/Illinois/Purdue, although Purdue seems like a big trap game ("best 1-5 team in the country" and right before the trip to Wisconsin).
I'm usually way too optimistic but I see 9-3 as possible.
October 11th, 2009 at 12:34 PM ^
DSU - W - 95%
PSU - W - 60%
Illinois - W - 60%
Purdue - W - 75%
Wiscy - L - 40%
OSU - W - 51%
I really think we have the (tremendously slight) edge over the Bucks this year. We seem to really pull these home games out of the hat. It's also entirely possible, now that I think about it, that we drop the away game to Illinois.
I hate Ron Zook.
October 11th, 2009 at 2:00 PM ^
But I love your numbers!
October 11th, 2009 at 12:39 PM ^
I like your averages, I think Wisconsin might be the 3rd best team in the bigten right now behind OSU and Iowa, PSU has still shown nothing and has a loss on their schedule, I think it will be a good game.
DSU - W - 95%
PSU - ? - 50%
Illinois - W - 85%
Purdue - W - 65%
Wisconsin - L - 35%
Ohio State - L -30%
October 11th, 2009 at 12:43 PM ^
- OSU, Penn State, and Wisconsin all look like (unexpectedly) winnable games.
- Illinois just can't possibly be this bad, and Michigan has to go to Memorial Stadium. That being said, they have been just awful to date.
- Purdue is wretched and has to play in Ann Arbor.
- Delaware State is a 1-4 MEAC team.
I'll guess they lose one they shouldn't and win one they shouldn't (7-5), but nothing between 6-6 and 9-3 is a shock at this point.