A social experiment: What are our chances of beating Iowa?
I am trying a little experiment regarding the MGoBlog readership's collective grasp of where this Wolverines team is heading this season. To start out I ask:
What are Michigan's chances, in your opinion, of getting a win next Saturday night vs. Iowa?
Please give your prediction in the form of a percentage. Calls of 100% or 0% will be disregarded when compiling the data. I, for one, give us a 30% chance solely on feel based on what we have seen so far.
October 4th, 2009 at 8:57 PM ^
i think we will always get about the same w/ our defense. many shaky plays with a few clutch stops.
i'm looking for a WR to step up as a go-to guy for Tate. he's doing an excellent job of getting it all over the field to different guys, but we need someone to emerge as a guy the defense of Iowa has to game plan for.
i think we'll have a good chance of beating Iowa. I don't think we will get blown out, it's a matter of making enough plays to stay toe to toe.
as rittenberg noted, I'm not betting against Tate. he'll make his mistakes, but he wants each game so badly that he'll make a lot of great plays.
as a side note, i'm hoping Tate's prowess as a clutch passer will intrigue some big stud outside receivers to come in to be his go-to-guy down the line.
October 4th, 2009 at 9:04 PM ^
That is a lot of thought process there. Does it make you focus on any particular number? Say between 1-99?
October 4th, 2009 at 8:58 PM ^
I have to go with about 60%. While Iowa might be the technically better team at this point, I think this will be the week we dig deep and play 4 quarters of the best football we are capable of, and I have a feeling the team won't feel much like leaving our abilities in question after this saturday.
October 4th, 2009 at 8:59 PM ^
It totally depends if we wear white pants or not.
October 4th, 2009 at 9:03 PM ^
what's the latest on white pants anyway?
October 4th, 2009 at 9:03 PM ^
I'm gonna guess we go into Iowa City as 7 point underdogs and that sounds about right to me. Any idea what that means in probability? Let's say 38%.
October 4th, 2009 at 9:25 PM ^
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/29/1003957/chance-of-a-football…
the regression formula from the link is %Chance of Winning =
49.25*pointspread^.194
7 points translates to about 30%
October 4th, 2009 at 9:30 PM ^
So I will put you down for 30% then?
October 4th, 2009 at 9:17 PM ^
80 - the number of an old friend who walked onto the team a few years back
October 4th, 2009 at 9:22 PM ^
I thought every team has a 50/50 chance of winning or losing. As long as the games will be played, every team has a 50/50 chance. The probability is a different story however.
Because I am going to the game, I give Michigan excellent chances of beating Iowa!
October 4th, 2009 at 9:24 PM ^
Oh, put me down for 40%
-10% for road game
-10% for our secondary
-10% for our linebackers
-20% for Iowa's front seven
+15% for Tate
+15% for Iowa's offense
+5% for our running game
+5% for Zoltan and Stonum
October 4th, 2009 at 9:33 PM ^
I'm going with 45%, I think their offense is a pretty good match-up for us but on the other hand their D-line might just eat us alive like they did to Penn State.
October 4th, 2009 at 9:35 PM ^
60%
The team has just suffered its first loss of the season (to a rival). Don't underestimate their desire to come out re-focused and steal a win on the road.
October 4th, 2009 at 9:38 PM ^
38%
They're probably a better team and they're going to be amped up for a night game at home, but Rich Rod's spread gives us a shot against anybody in the Big Ten.
October 4th, 2009 at 9:41 PM ^
I am totally confident that we will be behind until the 4th quarter and we will come back (this will require the usual self sacrifice of the Forcier body). If we are down less than 2 TD's at the end of the 3rd quarter....it's in the bag. Brandon Graham is due for a couple of big plays. We have to have a better game defensively...I'm sure GERG will have everything hashed out this week (wink....wink...)!
October 4th, 2009 at 9:41 PM ^
With a baseline of 50%:
-10% for the Iowa defensive line
-15% for a night game in Iowa City
+15% for Tate's late game heroics
+5% for Zoltan and the special teams
-10% for the secondary
+10% for the Iowa offense.
And that comes out to a 45% chance
October 4th, 2009 at 9:45 PM ^
I think Big Blue comes in refocused, sharp, and ready.
55% towards a Win.
October 4th, 2009 at 9:46 PM ^
Molk Oline= >50%
Molk-less Oline = 50% (Yes I know Molk is injured I mean how the line played)
In sum I think that Iowa is a very winnable game as has been shown by their almost choke jobs against Ark St and Northern Iowa. Of course you know that Iowa will be up for the Michigan game as was evidenced by when they played PSU.
Chance: 37.5%
October 4th, 2009 at 10:17 PM ^
I think the MSU loss was humbling to this young team, and they will obviously take lessons from it. On the other hand, we're playing an Iowa team that has probably the best defense in the league outside of OSU. They will look to take the run away and probably succeed early. It will be interesting to see how the coaches adjust should we have early three and outs again.
Unfortunately, I don't see us winning this one. The Iowa that beat Penn State will show up, and it will be a close ball game. But I think our O-line will struggle enough and we won't keep our defense off the field enough. Just my opinion. I really hope I'm wrong.
October 4th, 2009 at 11:23 PM ^
I'd say M has 60% chance of winning
+5 b/c team has gotten first road game under belt
+5 b/c coaches will get them focused and have them ready to go
+5 b/c Iowa has more to lose
-10 b/c Iowa's D is looking pretty tough
+5 b/c RR > KF
Stanzi is a wildcard....
Our O line needs to be more effective and we need to run the ball.
I think we'll surprise some people next week!
October 4th, 2009 at 11:27 PM ^
Watching Forcier walk off the field after the interception in OT -I think he's gonna be fired up to prove the naysayers. In response the team will rally behind his efforts and pull out the upset.
October 5th, 2009 at 12:17 AM ^
I honestly feel better about our chances against Iowa than MSU. We have some experience with the road, Iowa doesn't have the same motivation to beat us as MSU and our players are young and night games are more fresh in their memories. Plus, I think that it's sort of a trap game for them since they're going to Wisconsin the next week. I say they take us lightly and Tate gets it done on saturday night for old times sake. That said, 55% chance of win.
October 5th, 2009 at 1:07 AM ^
The more I have, the better we will (seem to) do.
Since its an 8 PM game, I predict blackout.
October 5th, 2009 at 1:44 AM ^
I'm going to be realistic and say about an 89% chance we kick Iowa's ass
October 5th, 2009 at 9:22 AM ^
Baseline 37% (in honor of Jarrett Irons)
-15 for OMG night road game we're SEW DEWMED.
-5 for rawk muzak (and they play Seven Nation Army which no college stadium plays ever).
+10 for Iowa softball fans scare me more than the football fans.
+5 for impending return of MINOR RAGE, and debut of DENARD RAGE.
+10 for Shonn Greene is in the NFL now (said it at the beginning of the year and I stand by it.)
October 5th, 2009 at 2:39 PM ^
The best team michigan has played so far is the team they just lost to. Let's be realistic defense is horrible and the offense has not seen a good defense.
October 9th, 2009 at 10:23 PM ^
@goobuck22
I cannot wait to hit my 20 Mgo points so I can Troll back to Negbang your redundant buckeye small-Face.
Anyways, everyone here knows what needs to be done physically. Execute and intimidate. Mentally they need to concentrate,focus-power just like Daniel Son. Is Tate similar to Daniel son? Yes. 77.5% they win.
October 5th, 2009 at 5:04 PM ^
I just feel like we are more likely to win this game than lose it.. staying optimistic
62%.