Betting line moving towards Sparty
At this site:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
the opening line was listed as MSU - 3.5. When I looked earlier this morning the consensus was -4.5 and now it's at -5.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:27 PM ^
Yes, we must have a strategy of passing coupled with Gardner scrambling and forget any thought of a run game. It's risky for Gardner, especially with State's well-documented "aggression," but if he plays it safe (slides, runs out of bounds, doesn't force passes, and so on) it should be very effective.
If we see entire drives played out of the I-formation, I give up. I would love to see 95% shotgun.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:11 PM ^
A win will be worth more. More schadenfreude, gnashing of teeth, couch abuse, polls, perception, etc...
October 27th, 2013 at 12:13 PM ^
Our defense is designed to play against an offense like they use. We win by at least ten. They've only beaten one team with a winning record and their offense is invisible against any defense with a pulse. 28-10 Michigan.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:09 PM ^
but I would be very surprised if we win big in this game. I agree with your thought about our D vs their O, though. We have a deceptively good defense and it's suited to stop an offense like this.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:16 PM ^
Unless I'm mistaken, the line 'opened'yesterday so the comments along the lines of 'well yeah, they just won by 5 touchdowns are missing the point. The line moving means that the betting was on msu to cover.
I can't disagree to be honest, until M win a road game against a decent team the assumption is that they will crumble. Hoke's best road win is what? At NW in 2011?
October 27th, 2013 at 12:27 PM ^
In terms of final record, @ 7-6 Illinois in 2011. It's amazing how good Michigan has been at home vs. how poor on the road.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:37 PM ^
I haven't done the research to back this up, but I'd bet that we're turning the ball over more frequently on the road than at home.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:16 PM ^
I'm sure you're right Don, although we do tend to at least seem far more conservative on the road as well.
October 27th, 2013 at 3:08 PM ^
under Hoke on the road counting bowl games, 4-5 not counting. The idea of toughness probably comes into play here somewhere. . .
October 27th, 2013 at 10:24 PM ^
How do you go from 7 losses under Hoke counting bowl games, 5 losses not counting? Hoke is 1-1 in bowl games.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:33 PM ^
So far under Hoke we have not yet gone on the road and beaten a team that's finished the regular season with a winning record.
October 27th, 2013 at 7:12 PM ^
against a team with a winning record. I could be wrong. But I don't think he does.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:17 PM ^
Is probably more than either team will score. This game is going to be unwatchable.
Bet the under.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:19 PM ^
Whew, good thing I looked it up. Games aren't decided by Vegas betting lines. Crazy.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:20 PM ^
that Gardner will have more turnovers than UM has points.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:51 PM ^
your sparty friend is a moron. typical sparty grad intelligence.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:18 PM ^
for having a Sparty friend. Life is easier without them.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:20 PM ^
...now it's back to -4.5
Does anyone know if it's usual to be moving so much at this time?
October 27th, 2013 at 12:31 PM ^
Vegas lines experience the greatest amount of volatility within the first 24 hours of posting. That's when the real players make their dough. Taking out emotion, I think they are close to a correct spread. STAEE -4.5 seems about right.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^
I remember hearing that's when the "sharps" come in and lay some real money on lines that have drifted too far in one direction.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:31 PM ^
Friday is the biggest day for action. Spread volatility is greatest within the first 24 hours, however.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:22 PM ^
I was thinking this line could get up to 6. Not surprised here
October 27th, 2013 at 12:22 PM ^
I don't mind. Being the underdog is a slap in the face to the team and they should respond appropriately.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:23 PM ^
vegas wants people to take sparty, which means michigan is the bet to take...
that said if you look at history (specifically hoke on the road) and State's defense I think 5 or 6 is a fair line, I certainly wouldn't take michigan +3 or less...
jdon
October 28th, 2013 at 11:54 AM ^
We win
October 27th, 2013 at 12:28 PM ^
Their defense is well known and well studied. Mattison has to have a master plan to disrupt their newly minted offense. Devin will lead team to score some points.
The outcome will be determined by a field goal (???!!!) in last second.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:28 PM ^
Not at all bothered by being an underdog in this one. I think I would take Michigan and that line myself actually. If it is of any interest, Massey Ratings currently (this might update in the morning as per normal for the site) gives us a 23% win probability with a median score of 28-20. TeamRankings' algorithm is a little more generous to Michigan, placing the win probability at just short of 40%.
October 28th, 2013 at 7:33 AM ^
Wow. That seems low.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:32 PM ^
I'll believe in hoke/Borges on the road v. An even halfway decent team when I see it. I expect to see a lot of bitching about game plan and playcalling after this one, since that seems to be the case after every road game.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:39 PM ^
If Gardner doesn't turn the ball over, we've got a legitimate shot. But I don't know how that doesn't happen. MSU's D will be blitzing the hell out of Gardner all day. And at the end of the day, I simply do not trust this coaching staff on the road against anyone. They've given me no reason to do so.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:44 PM ^
Whatever! We'll see what happens Saturday.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:47 PM ^
I know how averse Borges is to quick passes in the flat, but what I would like to see VS MSU is an attempt:
Throw a WR screen out of the stack. Put Funch at the point of attack, he ought to be able to block the CB who is pressing. By virtue of the stack, the other two WRs should get a clean break.
I think back to 2001 when MSU has Plaxico and he went beast mode against us. Carr tried everything including placing David Terrell on Plax (he got tossed like a rag doll). I want Funch to be our Plax. He should win physical battles at the line.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:40 PM ^
so much Funch to watch. And if the announcers were worth a crap they would note the irony. I want to see several more of our receivers get in on the action.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^
October 27th, 2013 at 1:06 PM ^
Hoke is not on the hot seat. That's crazy talk. He's in zero jeopardy of losing his job win or lose.
If you're defining "hot seat" as "facing criticism from fans," then every coach is on the hotseat, including Beilein at many times last season (and probably this coming season as well).
October 27th, 2013 at 7:02 PM ^
"Hot Seat" probably was a bad choice of words, but maybe the "Less Cool Seat" would apply. Of course, Brady Hoke isn't going to be fired anytime soon, and I regret having said something that would imply that outcome.
But remember, Brady Hoke's mantra for Michigan's football success has been "Winning the Big Ten Championship." He's the one who set the bar that high. A loss to Michigan State next Saturday probably makes it unlikely that Michigan will be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game this season, and if that happens, after three seasons as Michigan's head football coach, Brady Hoke will have won as many Big Ten championships as his predecessor.
While I appreciate Brady Hoke's desire to measure success by Big Ten Championships, I'm concerned that his measuring device places undue pressure on a lot of young men who might have to consider themselves ether failures or something less than successes, if that goal isn't achieved.
I don't subscribe to the notion that "every kid deserves a trophy" just for competing. It makes sense to encourage the goal of winning a championship. As often as I've watched my children suffer humiliating losses in athletic competitions, I've also seen them play for championship teams; but I never considered them to be less than successful, just because their team didn't win a championship. And if Brady Hoke doesn't lead Team 134 to a Big Ten Championship this season, I wouldn't think of him or his players as being less than successful.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^
Don't want to speak for anybody but I would say Funk and Borges are on fairly hot seats. Agree that Hoke is definitely not there but we are at Year 3 and I think it is reasonable to expect a Big Ten championship in the next three seasons and/or a win in a good to great bowl game. This is Michigan fergodsakes; expectations are high.
October 27th, 2013 at 11:25 PM ^
made mention when he was hiring Hoke that he paid particular attention to "Red Letter Games". Hoke is 4-3. And 0-3 on the road against OSU, MSU, and ND. Last year's ND game was a winnable game. We were in it against OSU, and we'll be in it in this game. IBut if we get shut out again on the road after this year against those teams, it's going to get the boss's attention.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:28 PM ^
What's good enough? We are 6-1 right now.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^
RECENT MEETINGS MICHIGAN MICHIGAN STATE
DATE AWAY/HOME. LINE O/U
10/20/12 MSU 10 - MICH 12 MSU 8.5 U 43
10/15/11 MICH 14 - MSU 28 MSU -3 U 47.5
10/09/10 MSU 34 - MICH 17 MSU 5 U 64.5
10/03/09 MICH 20 - MSU 26 x MSU -4 U 54
10/25/08 MSU 35 - MICH 21 MSU -3.5 O 44.5
11/03/07 MICH 28 - MSU 24 MICH -3.5 O 51
10/07/06 MSU 13 - MICH 31. MICH -15 U 52.5
10/01/05 MICH 34 - MSU 31 x MICH 4.5 O 59.5
10/30/04 MSU 37 - MICH 45 x MSU 11 O 49
11/01/03 MICH 27 - MSU 20 MICH -4 U 51.5
October 27th, 2013 at 12:53 PM ^
Now my head hurts from all the yelling.
October 27th, 2013 at 2:50 PM ^
In other words, lay the points. We haven't covered in years.
October 27th, 2013 at 12:56 PM ^
The team and the coaches have a lot to prove in this game. No one seems to think this team is good enough to beat MSU. No one seems to think Hoke & co. can prepare well enough to win on the road (rightfully so). Im curious to see how this goes but my gut tells me that we will win this game. Lets hope my gut isn't just being a homer..
October 27th, 2013 at 1:44 PM ^
Rightfully so. Hoke and company haven't done squat against good teams on the road.
October 27th, 2013 at 4:21 PM ^
They do have a ton to prove. The pressure is squarely on Michigan. At this point MSU is still playing with house money.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:25 PM ^
Hoke and Co have been terrible on the road. I'm honestly surprised it's not a bit more in MSUs favor.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:34 PM ^
I would be surprised if we cover that spread.
October 27th, 2013 at 5:40 PM ^
We don't have to cover. They do.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:42 PM ^
MSU reminds me so much of the Jets- setting football back 100 years.
October 27th, 2013 at 1:54 PM ^
Michigan as the underdog allows the "no respect" angle. I know they don't "need" more motivation, but I would imagane that the coaching staff will have no problem keeping their attention.