Penn State -- Early Thoughts?
Just noticed that Mark Snyder has some comments about the upcoming game against PSU up at our friends the Free Press, and got to wondering what observations others have to make about the Nittany Lions.
It looks like Penn State's defense got exposed a little against Indiana, and we all know that they are down. But I assume a fairly stiff test and a pretty full house for a game between these two traditional powers this week.
Snyder notes that establishing Funchess makes us less one-dimensional in the passing game, but that the run game, while better, has yet to really establish itself as a serious threat. He also observers that Minnesota's QB showed we may be vulnerable up the middle on defense (though Leidner was tough, and only needed to fall forward a few yards to get positive yardage against us, from what I observed).
I have not watched PSU play, but am itching to start obtaining a fix on next Saturday. Any ideas about how we stack up in these areas against PSU, on how it may go more generally against them?
October 7th, 2013 at 12:19 PM ^
This is likely Penn State's biggest home game of the year and the place will be loud. Devin will commit some turnovers that causes every to go on suicide watch. This just feels like a game where we should win, but the road + crowd makes it such that we struggle
October 7th, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^
Preliminary matchup stats, courtesy of TeamRankings. They have Michigan as the slight favorite in this one:
Offense
|
Michigan | Penn St. |
Yards/Play | 6.0 | 5.6 |
Points/Play | 0.588 | 0.392 |
Rush Play % | 60.30% | 50.62% |
Pass Play % | 39.70% | 49.38% |
Completion % | 60.48% | 59.89% |
3D Conv % | 53.73% | 29.73% |
RZ Scoring % | 90.91% | 94.44% |
Defense
|
Michigan | Penn St. |
Opp Yards/Play | 4.5 | 4.6 |
Opp Points/Play | 0.288 | 0.289 |
Opp Completion % | 53.01% | 56.89% |
Opp 3D Conv % | 41.10% | 29.49% |
Opp RZ Scoring % | 73.33% | 85.71% |
October 7th, 2013 at 12:23 PM ^
That "Defense" row says a lot.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:33 PM ^
the penn state defense is very good at stopping a third down. The offense is very bad at converting them.
October 7th, 2013 at 2:31 PM ^
unpracticed eye, than I would like. We'll find out over the next two weeks whether Akron and CT were outliers and whether we're better than those indicate.
I'll say one thing--next Sat. is about as good a litmus for the rest of the season as one could hope for. Beat PSU fairly convincingly and we can all finally calm down a bit more.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:27 PM ^
I think Michigan has a good chance if they hang onto the football. PSU's defense isn't as good as it usually is, and their offense is seemingly mediocre at best (though they have a very good receiver).
I hate to say it, but I can pretty easily imagine Michigan losing any of the games they have left on the schedule.
October 7th, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^
Indiana, actually ran quite a bit on PSU, maybe this happened as it was a change up that they didn't expect <shrugs>. If Michigan can win the turnover battle we can win this game. I think Hackenberg is a good QB, but he is still a freshmen. I think mixing up a few blitzes and putting pressure on him will cause PSU's offense to stumble.
October 7th, 2013 at 8:15 PM ^
October 7th, 2013 at 12:26 PM ^
Without selling out and leaving another area/player open for O'Brien to exploit .... we will be successful if Hackenburg to Robinson is contained (may not be stopped, but success will be in holding this pair to below average performance). Fortunately Hackenburg is not mobile so that gives us a breather in that department.
PSU is showing some of the weaknesses expected by the gutting from the NCAA unfortunately. Great coach and team but they are getting a little thin in depth.
BTW - Robinson is a high school teamate of Ross (Orchard Lake St. Mary).
October 7th, 2013 at 3:32 PM ^
October 7th, 2013 at 12:31 PM ^
Welcome Back?
October 7th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^
No way. The earliest is likely the MSU game.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:56 PM ^
According to Hoke's presser (that's going on right now), he's been medically cleared to play, it now the coach's call. So there is definitely a chance. Especially for the Indiana game.
October 7th, 2013 at 1:21 PM ^
I stand corrected. Now, will he play this weekend? We would all love that, but will Hoke give him one more game off just to be sure? We shall see.
It's amazing how quickly players recover from ACL surgery these days. ACL recoveries used to be a year or more.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:51 PM ^
we pray.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^
Hoke said JR could "potentially play". So, ummm, yes please?
October 7th, 2013 at 12:32 PM ^
After last week we saw what the Gophers TE did to us on some plays so that is a concern for me after Robinson. Also their RB is a beast and doesnt go down easy. This will be a tough game for us no doubt.
October 7th, 2013 at 3:40 PM ^
October 7th, 2013 at 4:54 PM ^
So I'm in favor of us being in the nickel all day. Penn State's been balanced overall.
October 7th, 2013 at 5:31 PM ^
October 7th, 2013 at 12:34 PM ^
I'm not sure that there are a lot of takeaways from Penn State's game against Indiana, unfortunately. They play such a different offense than us, so any struggles that Penn State revealed on Saturday may not be repeatable for our offense.
On defense it's going to be interesting to see what Mattison does. Unfortunately I see him playing a lot of two deep to prevent Allen Robinson from destroying us in the long game, so we'll have to see if Penn State can sustain long drives. I see them scoring somewhere in the low to mid 20's, so we just have to get above that.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:40 PM ^
The key will be that the team that scores more points than the other is going to win the game.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:59 PM ^
Say what you want, it's technically correct, which is the best kind of correct.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:53 PM ^
and appreciate this contribution! If you have any more insights, either edit and add or post below.
October 7th, 2013 at 4:32 PM ^
No one is a fan of Maddenisms?
October 7th, 2013 at 12:41 PM ^
Another passing spread, what is that, 5 in 6 games? (I honestly can't remember what CMU ran).
October 7th, 2013 at 12:48 PM ^
Passing spread!!!
October 7th, 2013 at 2:57 PM ^
I haven't seen a ton of PSU but I thought they were more pro-style than spread. No?
October 7th, 2013 at 3:57 PM ^
they have a very diverse play book, so some pro stuff some shotgun stuff. its more like nfl style offenses kinda like the pats since obrien used to be a coordinator for them.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:43 PM ^
October 7th, 2013 at 2:28 PM ^
PSU press has been trying to generate a rivalry since they joined the league. Until RR Michigan owned PSU and was something like 11-1 or 10-2 against them. The closest thing they had to a rivalry was Little Brother and that was clearly imagined.
Just last summer the PSU press was writing glowing articles about Rutgers and Maryland joining the B1G because maybe next of those schools by geography could be a rival. Right now PSU is the sorta ugly, but not repulsive, girl nobody wants to date but you don't mid being friends with.
One item regarding the "Rivalry" that PSU can point to is being the final nail that got RR fired. Many people, including myself, got off that bandwagon after the debacle of last visit to State College.
If Michigan plays like they are capable and Turnover Santa doesn't have a striped helmet Michigan should win by a relatively comfortable margin.
October 7th, 2013 at 3:09 PM ^
That 2010 game was brutal. Going in, I really thought it could be the turning point for RR (in a good way) . . . I thought the D would come off the bye week and start to show some life against a depleted PSU offense. And then that happened.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:43 PM ^
Only N'Western and Ohio worry me. I said that from Day 1, people called NW overrated, but I think they're more than legit.
Saturday was a step in the right direction. Hopefully we can continue to improve in all facets and play to our potential.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:46 PM ^
I won't click the Free Press link because they suck at life, but clearly M is the better team. Now what worries me is their insane home field advantage. If Devin had difficulty at UConn at night, imagine what MIGHT happen this weekend at one of the largest stadiums in the country.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:47 PM ^
Their secondary is actually not that bad this year but their left side of their defensive line is weak and at least from what I saw, UCF busted many positive runs on that side of the line.
All in all, I think Michigan's offense needs to build a useful play action game to really score against Penn State. The defense should be okay provided that the coverage holds up.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^
Anyone comforted by the Indiana game needs to remember Akron and UConn. Hackenburg was no worse than Devin has been at times. It's a pick 'em at best.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:53 PM ^
October 7th, 2013 at 12:54 PM ^
is a true Frosh, this will be his biggest game of the season and he's not terribly mobile. This is where Mattison needs to dial up his exotic blitzes and throw a bunch of fake blitzes PSU's way to confuse their QB.
October 7th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^
I hate to say it but I feel Gardner's one game turnover-free streak breaking Saturday evening. Later game, white out, loud fans... That's good for a mistake on Gardner's part.
That said, Michigan covers.
October 7th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^
I know that I know nothing about how this game will play out.
October 7th, 2013 at 1:06 PM ^
October 7th, 2013 at 1:08 PM ^
Early thoughts?
IT'S A TRAP!
October 7th, 2013 at 1:13 PM ^
This team got bombed by Indiana last week. Michigan should handle this squad comfortably.
October 7th, 2013 at 1:14 PM ^
If we can control the ball on the ground, we win. PSU has depth issues, so long scoring drives will kill their defense.
October 7th, 2013 at 1:26 PM ^
October 7th, 2013 at 1:31 PM ^
That was an impressively terrible snap. Usually you see the punter jump. On that one, he just turned and started to run backwards.
October 7th, 2013 at 4:54 PM ^
I guess the question is do you blitz him hard out of the gate or sit back and see if he makes any mistakes on his own.
October 7th, 2013 at 1:28 PM ^
I dont see us winning this one. PSU will be on a mission. We will be on the road. That road leads to a big, tough, uncomfortable venue. Given recent performances, I just dont think we are there yet. It will be a close game, but I think PSU gets this one. Of course, I hope I am wrong.