B1G Football: Week 2 Against the Spread
Last week UMgradMSUdad went over B1G football against the spread for the first week. He had commented "But if anybody else is interested in doing it, I say go for it." So I did. If you'd like anything else tracked, let me know and I will consider it. Unless it's tracking the top-25, I don't believe I'll put time/effort into that. Any top 25 team that's relevant to Michigan will be tracked, given they're in our conference.
I Bet You $20 I Can Get You Gambling By the End of the Day
| Week 1 | Week 2 | |||||||
| Open | Close | Result | Difference | Open | Close | Result | Difference | |
| Michigan | -34.5 | -31.5 | 59-9 (CMU) | +18.5 | -4 | -5 | 41-30 (ND) | +6 |
| Ohio | -35 | -34 | 40-20 (Buff) | -14 | -28.5 | -28 | 42-7 (SDSU) | +7 |
| Michigan St | -27 | -28 | 26-13 (WMU) | -15 | -24.5 | -21.5 | 21-6 (USF) | -6.5 |
| Indiana | -24 | -25 | 73-35 (Ind St) | +13 | -14 | -12.5 | 35-41 (Navy) | -18.5 |
| Illinois | -24 | -17 | 42-34 (So Ill) | -9 | +7.5 | +8 | 45-17 (Cinci) | +36 |
| Northwestern | -3 | -6.5 | 44-30 (@Cal) | +7.5 | -16 | -17 | 48-27 (Syr) | +4 |
| Penn State | -7 | -8 | 23-17 (Syr) | -2 | -24.5 | -28 | 45-7 (EMU) | +10 |
| Nebraska | -27 | -31 | 37-34 (Wyo) | -28 | -31 | -28 | 56-13 (S Miss) | +15 |
| Iowa | -3 | -3 | 27-30 (N Ill) | -6 | -24 | -26 | 28-14 (Misso St) | -12 |
| Wisconsin | -44 | -44 | 45-0 (UMass) | +1 | -45 | -45 | 48-0 (Tenn Tech) | +3 |
| Purdue | +7.5 | +10.5 | 7-42 (Cinci) | -24.5 | -17 | -17 | 20-14 (Ind St) | -11 |
| Minnesota | -14.5 | -13.5 | 51-23 (UNLV) | +14.5 | -15 | -16 | 44-21 (N Mex St) | +7 |
- The B1G went 8-4 ATS last week, improving on their 5-7 record from the first week.
- As you can see, Michigan has done very well ATS in their first 2 weeks, the best in B1G.
- Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Minessota are the only other B1G teams that are 2-0 ATS.
What about next week? Can't make money on past spreads...
Show Me the Money
| Week 3 | ||||
| Open | Current | O/U | Opponent | |
| Michigan | -35.5 | -37 | 56.5/57 | Akron |
| Ohio | -14.5 | -16 | 66 | @Cal |
| Michigan St | -28 | -24/-26 | NL | Young St |
| Indiana | -4 | -2.5 | 63.5 | BGSU |
| Illinois | +7 | +9.5/+10 | 62/62.5 | Wash |
| Northwestern | -35 | -30.5/-31 | 59.5/60 | WMU |
| Penn State | -3 | -5.5/-6 | 50.5 | UCF |
| Nebraska | -4 | -4.5 | 70! | UCLA |
| Iowa | -3 | -2.5 | 48.5/49 | @Iowa St |
| Wisconsin | +4 | +5/+5.5 | 52.5 | @Az St |
| Purdue | +23 | +20.5 | 50 | ND |
| Minnesota | -23.5 | -24 | NL | W Ill |
- Hoke is 3-1 ATS when playing MAC teams at Michigan, with his only loss coming from beating EMU by 28 with the spread of -28.5.
- Michigan has covered 3 straight games at home.
- Hoke is 11-6 ATS at home.
- Gardner is 5-2 ATS & 6-1 O/U as the starting QB with the last 4 home games going over the total.
- Hoke has been favored at home by over 30 points twice, and covered in both contests.
- Terry Bowden & the Zips were 1-11 last year, but went 6-6 ATS and are 0-2 ATS this year.
- Before last week the Zips had went under the total in 8 straight contests. Last week they went over the total by 13.5 points; looks like they had subs, and it was crazy.
With a total of 57 and a spread of 37, the team totals project to be Michigan (47) and Akron (10). The limits on team totals aren't as lucrative, but I don't see Akron scoring 10 points. Or at least I don't want to see that.
If interested, here are past ATS records for the B1G:
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Michigan | 8-4-1 | 6-7 | 2-0 |
| Ohio | 6-7 | 7-5 | 1-1 |
| Michigan St | 10-4 | 5-8 | 0-2 |
| Indiana | 5-6-1 | 6-6 | 1-1 |
| Illinois | 6-7 | 3-9 | 1-1 |
| Northwestern | 5-8 | 12-1 | 2-0 |
| Penn State | 3-9-1 | 9-2-1 | 1-1 |
| Nebraska | 4-8-1 | 6-7-1 | 1-1 |
| Iowa | 5-8 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| Wisconsin | 7-6-1 | 6-8 | 2-0 |
| Purdue | 6-6-1 | 6-7 | 0-2 |
| Minnesota | 8-5 | 6-7 | 2-0 |
What's your best bet?
September 12th, 2013 at 1:01 PM ^
loliowa
September 12th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^
Yeah, I literally did that cartoon move where I pulled off my glasses, rubbed my eyes thoroughly with my knuckles and double-checked the line for the Iowa-Iowa State game. That line looks really off. I think ISU lost to an FCS team at home on opening weekend, so I guess that is factoring in but ISU has had a lot of success against the Hawkeyes in Ames for sometime now. I expect the Cyclones to win that SU.
September 12th, 2013 at 1:24 PM ^
$$$$$$$$
September 13th, 2013 at 2:13 PM ^
I actually favor the under.
September 12th, 2013 at 1:25 PM ^
I'll take Youngstown State ATS... even the Sparty D isn't going to score 3 TDs.
September 12th, 2013 at 1:41 PM ^
More to the point, YSU might actually be better than MSU's previous two opponents.
September 12th, 2013 at 1:29 PM ^
Ohio.. I'll take the over on that, and I'll take Ohio
Youngstown State with the points
Indiana.. and the over
I'll take Illinois outright and the under
Penn State easily covers
Nebraska covers... I'll take the over
Iowa covers, I'll take the under
Wisconsin wins big. I'll take the over.
September 12th, 2013 at 2:32 PM ^
to track how teams/conferences do compared to the spread to see who was the most overrated teams/conferences.
September 12th, 2013 at 6:50 PM ^
I don't expect Ohio to cover at Cal, and I'm worried that Wisconsin might get embarrassed at ASU and lose by a touchdown or more. I guess it's just that historically Purdue has played ND tough that keeps them from being even more of an underdog.
September 12th, 2013 at 7:59 PM ^
O/U on MSU is 40 - that's a good number, pass.
O/U on Minnesota is 45' - over over over
September 12th, 2013 at 9:40 PM ^
I believe under is the play on that State total and I agree with over on the Minnesota total.
I'll make note of people's plays to see how they fare.
September 13th, 2013 at 11:20 AM ^
but I am wagering this weekend that Notre Dame defeats Purdue by more than 21 points.
September 13th, 2013 at 2:59 PM ^
Michigan -37 (like the under but will pass on that... Michigan 45 - Akron 3)
Illinois/Washington OVER 62.5 (like the Huskies but will pass on that... Washington 42 - Illinois 30)
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