Sets up for a rematch vs VCU and potential rematch vs Kansas State.
Bracket Discussion - LINK
Who others are picking:
Eamonn Brennan: VCU over Georgetown
Jeff Goodman: VCU over Northeastern
Andy Katz: Michigan over Georgetown
Jason King: VCU over Kansas State
Dana O'Neil: VCU over Kansas State
I was surprised to see that 4 out of 5 ESPN folks picked VCU to win it all. Especially when earlier in the article they mention that Michigan is the "obvious favorite."
EDIT: Link
VCU is still the chic pick, what with Shaka Smart staying there and their pressure D. Also, I assume they assume a dropoff at PG with the departure of Trey Burke. Sure, Spike has been great, but he's not yet had to lead the team for the majority of the game, and Walton is still a true freshman.
That's fine, but they lose two of their best players as well, and I bet they aren't being replaced by Walton and Irvin.
They're also ignoring that we are a matchup nightmare for VCU as a team that doesn't turn it over and responds well to pressure. Even if Walton and Spike struggle more than Burke, which is plausible, that game was a beatdown last year - and we're not relying on either of them to ALSO carry the scoring load like we were with Trey. I can't see VCU within 10 points of us on their best day.
But we don't have the consensus best point guard in the country anymore. So it will probably be like a ten point win or something.
While having Trey definitely helped, it was more the fact that everyone on our team was an excellent ball handler. Don't think that changes much with this year's squad.
Michigan will be the team with the biggest target on its back; I fully understand why the ESPN people are expecting the Wolverines to stub their toes somewhere. While Michigan losses still make me want to throw my monitor or TV through a window, it might not be such a bad development if the Wolverines do lose a game in PR.
Last year, my thoughts were that the Wolverines would lose a few early while acclimating to new personnel, but would grow into a threat to make the Final Four by tournament time. I wouldn't mind that scenario happening this season.
Does no one remember the tournament? I suppose they're all assuming we'll lose before reaching VCU, but a 25 point win over VCU was not only because of Trey Burke. We'd kill them again. They match-up horribly against us
Is that even if you lose, you will play three games. This means that even if Michigan were to lose in the semis, there's a chance they play Georgetown or K-State for 3rd place. From an RPI standpoint, that's basically 2 guaranteed RPI 100 type teams and an RPI 200 type team.
Edit: for those wondering, playing 2 of FSU, VCU, G-Town, K-State in PR would give Michigan a total of 6 high-major type nonconference games.
A rather impressive NC schedule.
If we're going to talk about how nice this tournament is let's talk about how nice it would be to win two preseason tournaments in a row! When's the last time that happened?
There's nothing better than potentially getting VCU in the second game for a young Derrick Walton. These are the kind of tests you need so that you can grow up fast. Trial by fire!
They could make Walton dribble with 2 basketballs the whole game and he still wouldnt turn it over against VCU. Yes we lose Trey and Tim who did most of the ball handling but our coaching staff that gave Shaka a spanking in the tourney is still intact. Not worried about that game at all. Georgetown might be tougher because of their physical style of play but they lose Otto Porter and I'm not sure how efficient they will be on offense.
If you at least go as far as Sunday with some of the Massey matchup simulators (last season's data, but perhaps a decent baseline to work from), the path to Sunday in our bracket isn't a bad one at all. Using the simulator, we would get 96% against Long Beach State and the Florida St. / VCU game would be 83% in favor of VCU. Our own chances against VCU would be estimated at 76%, and if somehow we faced Florida State, they would jump to 95%.
We are going to have trouble scoring, so it's nice to have a bad defense like VCU who relies on the press in our bracket. It's going to take a while for GRIII, Walton, Irvin to take over the offense. Also, possibility of Stauskas breakout year.
our team is still good! Seeing duke again just got me fired up. We have a real shot at winning that game!
Comments