Cissoko v. Sophomore Starters of Michigan Yore

Submitted by Seth on
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YMRBoubacarCissokoFSFPA

or

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Todd Howard

For Boubacar, 'disguising coverage' is simply a matter of crouching.NOTE: Major edits made 9/18 to fix statistical errors -- used the opportunity to do a little clarification, and add some context for the "you knocked on boobie -- die mthrfkr!" contingent, which I realize I kind of brought on myself by not adding any context.

ALSO NOTE: This is e-pinion, not empirical fact.

Alas, again, I have begun to write a long Misopo-reply, only to upgrade mid-writing to a Diary.

This one goes out to MGoHero jg2112's "Support Boubacar Cissoko this Saturday" post, in which 'jg' posited that Boubacar Cissoko is this year's Martavious Odoms, i.e. a great player who gets the general M fan negbang beyond his actual faults.*

Cissoko is not Odoms.

For one, "Tay" is your vintage Rich-Rod slot ninja, a guy recruited for a system position. Cornerback, however, doesn't change much from Hermann to Robinson -- coverage, at the college level at least, is coverage, and every system puts cornerbacks in multiple roles during a game. In other words, Cissoko's size or jet-engine-ness are not something to get used to because of the coaching shift; he's a Carr recruit playing a position that fundamentally requires the same skill set.

His problems in the Notre Dame game, as noted in Brian's UFR, were not just size. He was bailing and leaving large cushions. This could be underclassman-y stuff from a true sophomore left out to dry with no safety help, but the mental mistakes, I think, were not what you expect from a lock-down corner. Or more importantly, not what you'd expect from a guy you might expect to join the ranks of the post-Bo pantheon of great corners.

Hey, Misopogon. It's Brian's bolded subconscious. Guess what I'm here for?

Um...chart?

You know me too well...

NameHeightWeightYearsTacklesPBUsInt
Boubacar Cissoko5.831802008-?2451

That's Boubacar's stats through two games into his sophomore season. Now lets compare with other Michigan cornerbacks who started played extensively (subsequent edits) earned a fair share of playing time their respedtive freshman years before starting as sophomores (all stats through 2nd game of true sophomore season):

Stars:
NameHeightWeightYearsTacklesPBUsInt
Ty Law6.001891992-945460
Charles Woodson6.081971995-975576
Marlin Jackson6.081902001-0461124
Leon Hall6.001912003-063353
Donovan Warren6.001802007-?6271

True freshmen who became serviceable-to-good late in their careers:
NameHeightWeightYearsTacklesPBUsInt
Deon Johnson6.172101991-941110
Andre Weathers6.081841994-981810
Markus Curry5.921832001-042101

The Late-'90s/Early '00s Backfield of Horrors
NameHeightWeightYearsTacklesPBUsInt
James Whitley5.921881997-003731
Todd Howard5.831781998-0119
3
0

And just so they don't feel left out, here's the stats after 2 games of true sophomores or redshirt freshmen who didn't start until their second years:

NameHeightWeightYearsTacklesPBUsInt
Morgan Trent6.001852004-08311
Woody Hankins5.751881992-96300
Jeremy LeSueur6.082001999-03310
Dwayne Ware5.921901988-92500

So what does this tell us? Well, it's not good, but it's also not much. Among the stars, the only one close to Cissoko's numbers (but still better by a solid margin) was Leon Hall. Hall, like Cissoko, was mostly a nickelback his freshman year, but Leon beat out upperclassman versions of 5-stars Markus Curry and Jeremy LeSueur for the starting gig as a sophomore. Without similar talent to compare Cissoko against, it has to be assumed that Cissoko's playing time wasn't as hard to earn as Hall's.

I think at this point, Cissoko has not demonstrated that he belongs with that group, who all:
  • Were 6 feet or taller
  • Earned starts as freshmen over returning starters
  • Showed an early aptitude for generating tackles.
Why tackles? That was a surprise to me, but it seems to check out career-wise as well. I don't think this is some anomaly; if I had to hazard a guess, I would say that cornerback is a position that relies a lot on pure talent and instinct, meaning strong talent will generally show up early in stats and playing time.

The stars-are-big-and-get-lots-of-playing-time-and-tackles-early lesson is the only relatively solid (and that has been questioned) thing I found in the statistics available (if anyone has access to better stats for corners, I'm all ears!)

So What Have We Here?

We've established that Cissoko isn't likely to be Woodson or Law (which, like, it's not like it's a sin to not be a Heisman winner or an NFL All-Pro). So then what is he?

As for the guys who became serviceable/good later in their careers, they generated those stats in a lot fewer snaps (e.g. Weathers didn't start playing regularly in '94 until late in the season; M.Curry was mostly a backup his freshman year).

Markus Curry is a possibility. Like Cissoko, he was a kick/punt returner his freshman year. A well-hyped recruit, he played early his freshman year but lost playing time to classmate Marlin Jackson's emergence early in the Big Ten season. Curry was a starter early his sophomore year, but then fell behind LeSeuer and Zia Combs (until that horrible injury -- G-d bless him wherever he is today).

The big difference between Cissoko and Curry the Younger, I think, is size, which has a big effect on either player's game. Curry was hyped as fast, but on the field his speed and agility turned out to be overrated, while after what we've seen of Cissoko, he definitely has the quicks and flat-out speed to keep up with anyone. Boubacar, however, is probably a good inch shorter than his listed height of 5'9", while Curry was just under 6.

Overall, Curry is a good comparison, but not great. Curry was bigger, and when he finally broke into the depth chart as a junior, the major difference IIRC was that he played "bigger," i.e. he was at his best when leaving a cushion, closing the gap, and popping the ball out, as opposed to pressing at the line, staying between the receiver and the ball, then trying to get his hands in the way.

Cissoko is never going to play, act, or be a big cornerback. He's a cover guy. In gauging his career arc, then, I would think that he will become exactly what he wasn't in the Notre Dame game. I can't fault him for giving Floyd a cushion (and there was only one fade which was pretty undefendable). But that's never going to be Boubacar's bread and butter.

The guys that Boubacar charts out closest to: I hate myself for doing this, but it's Whitley and Howard. Both are short (like Boubacar). Both were highly regarded recruits. Both were forced into lots of early playing time. Both were labeled Future Stars of the XFL by their sophomore years.

Of these two guys, Cissoko's early numbers are more like Whitley, but he strikes me as more Howard-esque than Whitley-esque. Todd was the smaller of the two, but also the faster, and more effective. He was owned early his sophomore year Future Star of the XFL James Whitleyagainst Plaxico Burress, mirroring Cissoko's game against Floyd, when Todd was forced to give a cushion and keep the big guy underneath. Eventually that game, Howard was moved over for David Terrell, who had the height and ups to run with Plaxico in man.

By his (Todd Howard's) senior year, he was a poor man's Morgan Trent, necessitating early starting time for freshmen Markus Curry, Jeremy LeSueur (RS) and Marlin Jackson. But he was world's more effective than he had been as a sophomore.

Howard, I remember vividly, also probably was more overrated than any other Wolverine -- every year -- in progressive versions of EA Sports's NCAA Football Series.

Unlike Whitley, Todd Howard was fast, and wasn't relegated to the short side. He was out-manned against top talent, but help up pretty well against receivers who weren't 6'8" or could leap small buildings in a single bound, or ran NFL routes, or scurried around in free space underneath thanks to Northwestern's spread, or had Drew Brees bullseyes coming at them, or were named Charles Rogers.

That's not to say that his career potential is lifelong bomb threat. Remember, after all, Whitley was the one who generated the bulk of M fan ire. Howard, on the other hand, covered the wide side, made the occasional great play (especially against Ohio State -- that photo below was a key PBU in the '01 game) and fared well when he wasn't going against future NFL talent. Like you, I was hoping for a lot more. But Todd Howard isn't all that bad.

It's perfectly okay to be Todd Howard -- so long as the guy opposite him isn't Whitley. And fortunately for us, barring early NFL, Donovan Warren is probably only just past the half-way mark of his career, and between Turner and the guys we look pretty good for next year, I think M's chances of scoring another one of those top-end guys ain't too shabby.

What's in Store?

Howard broke this up, BTW.In Year 2, Game 3 of Todd Howard's career, he had a breakout game at Syracuse minus McNabb, with 10 tackles, 1 sack for 15 yards, 2 PBUs and a forced fumble. Eastern Michigan isn't Syracuse '99, but hey, if Cissoko is all over the field on Saturday, remember you heard it here first.

There's a lot of time left in Cissoko's career. This is just an early analysis, and I think only made possible because he plays a position which, at least at Michigan, has tended to show its cards early.

Still, provided the other side of the field has Day 1 Draft Pick caliber guy opposite him, another Todd Howard isn't that bad of a prospect, really. What did Brian say in his secondary preview:
My go-to (and now rapidly aging) comparison was Arkansas corner Chris Houston, who I once saw battle the South Carolina star receiver before Kenny McKinley (his name escapes me) in a pitched Thursday night battle. Houston lined up two inches from his cover's grill and rode him into fades all night, some of which the opponent brought in spectacularly. That's life with feisty dwarves.
Word.

P.S. If Cissoko is Howard, this only adds fuel to the "Justin Turner is Jeremy LeSueur" contingent, which does not yet exist, and thus probably can't use fuel. But now it's out there.


* The whole "folks tend to knock on Odoms" thing is played out, IMHO, as evidenced by every show of Odoms support being met with a cascade of "I've always liked the guy" posts. I don't remember ever wanting to knock him, except to yell "take your gloves off!" into a couple of monsoons.

Comments

STW P. Brabbs

September 17th, 2009 at 11:29 PM ^

Ok, so first I saw this and thought - "Todd Howard was the worst corner I've ever seen at Michigan. But let me get through the thread before I comment - 3 other people have already pointed this out." And then three people said Todd Howard was decent to solid.

My rods and cones are all screwed up. My pants are on backwards. My world doesn't make sense. All I know is that Todd Howard's scouting report before the NFL draft was "Struggles with tall or fast receivers and has trouble staying with double moves." Todd could cover slow, smallish guys who ran flies and posts. I do not have any memories of him that don't involve extreme toastiness.

But maybe I am an idiot. That's entirely possible.

gpsimms not to…

September 18th, 2009 at 7:57 AM ^

evah.

I looked up Charles Woodson's stats from the '97 season. In the first two games he only had:

10 Tackles, O PBR (No blue ribbon? How does one cope?!), and 0 INTs

Clearly, he was going to have a poor year/career. I would label him as a future XFL star with these numbers.

Compare the Cissoko's production through two games this year:

9 tackles, 2 PBRs, 1 INT

I understand the comparison between these two players over two games means absolutely nothing, but that is my point.

FURTHER, you suggest booboo played extensively as a freshman. Um, he kinda didn't. Go back and look at how many tackles Donovan Warren and Morgan Trent had. I'm not going to look because I'm lazy, but I'd be willing to bet anything that the 'future star' cb's all were the first or second cb on the team in terms of tackles.

I cannot believe how worked up people are getting about Booboo's play on Saturday. Hell, even Donovan Warren, consensus all star of the future of the world in all the NFL and the world and everything, got destroyed by Floyd when he had to cover him.

Maybe I need to reread the UFR, but I'm pretty sure that fade was pretty much the only time Warren was tested on Floyd.

Seth

September 18th, 2009 at 9:55 AM ^

Okay, folks, if you can find me better stats I will do a complete re-analysis. In fact, if there's a better statistical resource than MgoBlue.com's historical statistics, I'll pour through and give you all sorts of Diaries much more useful than this.

If I had catch rate, Yards per attempt when thrown in a CB's direction, TDs allowed, and UFR totals for all M CBs from 1990 through the present, I would have used them. I don't.

We do what we can with what we have. We have five consensus awesome cornerbacks with similar stats by this point in their careers, and no consensus awesome cornerbacks fall outside of that. I think that's a pretty strong indication that the type of guy who becomes one of these consensus awesome CBs will earn heavy playing time and generate a lot of tackles in their first 14 or so games.

For an instinctive position, that can't be all that surprising, can it?

The biggest surprise for me when doing this analysis is what it said about Howard.

Chart.

Defense Career Top 10 'Pass Breakups'

# Name Tackles PBU From To
1 Todd Howard 151 33 1998 2001
2 Leon Hall 180 31 2003 2006
3 James Whitley 187 27 1997 2000
4 (tie) Charles Woodson 162 25 1995 1997
4 (tie) Marlin Jackson 195 25 2001 2004
6 Marion Body 117 24 1979 1982
7 Jeremy LeSueur 167 23 2000 2003
8 Thomas Darden 118 20 1969 1971
9 Jarrett Irons 429 19 1993 1996
10 (tie) Jamar Adams 172 18 2004 2007
10 (tie) Markus Curry 119 18 2001 2004
10 (tie) Ty Law 161 18 1992 1994

That's all-time at Michigan, since they started tracking PBUs. And Todd Howard is the all-time leader, with Whitley third. That seems like an indication that the two of them faced a LOT of passing, which does gel with memory of those years. It also, most likely, will be representative of the next few years, as our depth at DB remains a plum for any opposing OC until proven otherwise.

I'm getting a little tired of the "I'm too lazy to get stats myself but your stats aren't perfect so I'm ignoring you" sentiment.

BTW - I did make one major screw-up that could change this whole analysis, which I realized this morning, but nobody has caught it yet.

awesomoblue

September 18th, 2009 at 10:32 AM ^

Cissoko just had a bad game. I believe he will positively progress as the season moves ahead. He was playing man against possibly one of the best WR duos in college football.

As for secondary players who I wasn't too fond of-

Curry, LeSeuer, Trent, and I can't believe no one mentioned Grant Mason. If anyone recalls the last drive of the 2005 OSU game... Mason was largely responsible for every big pass given up. Most notably the dagger to A Gonzalez.

Dix

September 18th, 2009 at 10:51 AM ^

I'd think the best corners would have limited opportunities for pass breakups, and the guys opposite the best corners would get thrown at the most, thus having the most opportunities for PBU or tackles.

Seth

September 18th, 2009 at 12:11 PM ^

After reading the commentary, I made some extensive edits to the original post (so if you're reading the commentary now and some of it doesn't make sense, that's why).

I want to note real quick that I really do appreciate any criticism, and plussed any critics whose critique I found constructive and germane to the point I was making (which was definitively not to call out a guy for one bad game), which (the constructive critics) include most of you.

The version that now stands is different than the original. I clicked the box to leave a shadow copy of the original post, but I'm not sure it worked. My goal was not to render your comments moot, but to create a better overall blog entry for posterity.

zlionsfan

September 18th, 2009 at 4:55 PM ^

the post was pretty good, considering what you have to work with.

There are some problems with approaching this from a statistical perspective, notably a) it's difficult to properly identify individual responsibility in a sport like football (as opposed to baseball, for example), and b) what few stats we have that go beyond the absolute basics are unlikely to be available for seasons past, so even if someone does create a tolerable metric for CBs, it's not likely to be of any help to anyone without access to coaches' film from seasons past.

I think you and some commenters are in the right direction, in that there are relationships in this data that might be helpful and there ought to be something better, but I just don't think you're going to get what they/we want. Even sites like Football Outsiders have to preface their individual statistics with qualifiers ... a main component of some of their advanced stats are based on judgment calls, and that's at the NFL level.

Asomugha is a good example of this. We know he's playing very well for Oakland, but even knowing that, it's difficult to watch a game and give an objective measure of his value to their pass defense (although at times infinity would seem to be the correct answer). Some of his value just can't be demonstrated.

Maybe Cissoko will turn out to be pretty solid, and maybe he won't, but I just don't know that we can demonstrate that for sure.

darkstrk

September 18th, 2009 at 6:29 PM ^

... the coaches seem to have more confidence in Cissoko than in Warren. Notice that there was more over-the-top safety protection for Warren than for Cissoko in ND game, even when Cissoko was covering Floyd.

Since Warren is supposedly a first-day NFL guy (I won't believe it until I see it), the coaches must see something special in Cissoko. We'll see whether their confidence in him is justified and rewarded in future games.

Stats? Stats is meaningless at this point (see Woodson's stats after two games in his sophomore year).

umeuph97

September 24th, 2009 at 1:47 AM ^

One of the biggest contributions that Woodson gave to the 97 defense was the (mostly) complete shutting off of a whole side of the field to the passing game. I think you have to look at that facet of the game to get a feel for a true "lockdown corner". Hard to document though...