Mathematical analysis: Michigan has a 3.8 percent chance of winning the NCAA tournament
Not to undermine Butterfield (LINK) who's numbers appear both impeccable and comforting but some hack named Nate Silver published an article for the New York Times (tumblr site?) giving Michigan a somewhat, err, dimished likelihood of winning the NCAA tournament. Via UMHoops (LINK):
Michigan (up to 3.8 percent from 2.5 percent) Michigan could easily enough have been a No. 1 seed had it played better down the stretch, and it was probably underseeded as a No. 4 even with the losses that it took. In general, however, we’ve found that late-season performance doesn’t tell you that much more than early-season performance when it comes to tournament play – and Michigan’s slump has not extended into the postseason. It was a break for the Wolverines to play in Auburn Hills, Mich., but their domination of a tough Virginia Commonwealth team on Saturday was nevertheless impressive, and they should be thought of as the equivalent of a strong No. 2 seed right now.
It is worth noting that if the 3.8% continues to increase it will someday reach 81.45% and all will be right with the world.
March 26th, 2013 at 12:47 PM ^
We have a very tough road. Beating Kansas, Florida and then two final four teams is hard.
March 26th, 2013 at 12:59 PM ^
I think you mean Kansas, Flordia Gulf Coast, then two final four teams. #believe
At this point, I think I'd rather play Florida than Florida Gulf Coast. If FGCU wins, they will have already taken down a 2-seed and a 3-seed.
....they will play like the team that lost twice to Lipscomb, who finished 12-18.
Alternatively suppose Florida wins, then they'll have beaten the team that took down a 2 seed plus a very successful regular season.
.....we really can't complain too much.
If given the choice of (assuming higher seeds advance):
- Duke - Louisville
- Syracuse - Miami
- Kansas - Florida
I'd take option 3.
Of course, I wish we were looking at:
- Arizona - Wichita State
I'd take Option 2.
Syracuse > Kansas and Miami > Florida.
Plus, out of the 4, I think we match up the worst with Miami.
Eh, it's close between option 2/3, but really it's not so bad. I'd rather not go through Duke and Louisville though, for sure.
March 26th, 2013 at 12:48 PM ^
This is dumb 81.45% is a much higher number
March 26th, 2013 at 12:52 PM ^
He mentions cities, but he doesn't convert them to math. I'm giving this an incomplete.
Silver's methodology is strange. Not sure how he could come to any conclusion using such a arbitrary data set. I'm standing by the 81.45 percent as it was based on much more sound reasoning.
March 26th, 2013 at 12:54 PM ^
...results are so much more comforting than harsh reality.
Zing...
March 26th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^
For the South and East Regions anyway, here are the estimated probabilities based on some hypothetical matchup on the Massey site. If you take this out to the championship and add up the estimated probabilities of all scenarios in which Michigan wins, it comes close to Silver's number (it also creates a hellish spreadsheet). Strangely, that estimate has held fairly steady throughout the postseason too.
The favored teams in this algorithm would be Michigan (slightly), Florida, Indiana annd Miami (YTM). The two rightmost columns show the resultant Elite Eight Game. I also did this for the other regional finals as well, but this one is more pertinent to our future.
| Kansas / Michigan | Florida/ FGCU | Indiana/ Syracuse | Marquette / Miami | PROB. | SOUTH | EAST |
| 0.53 | 0.89 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 21.811% | Michigan / Florida | Indiana / Miami |
| 0.53 | 0.89 | 0.68 | 0.32 | 10.264% | Michigan / Florida | Indiana / Marquette |
| 0.53 | 0.89 | 0.32 | 0.68 | 10.264% | Michigan / Florida | Syracuse / Miami |
| 0.53 | 0.89 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 4.830% | Michigan / Florida | Syracuse / Marquette |
| 0.53 | 0.11 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 2.696% | Michigan / FGCU | Indiana / Miami |
| 0.53 | 0.11 | 0.68 | 0.32 | 1.269% | Michigan / FGCU | Indiana / Marquette |
| 0.53 | 0.11 | 0.32 | 0.68 | 1.269% | Michigan / FGCU | Syracuse / Miami |
| 0.53 | 0.11 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.597% | Michigan / FGCU | Syracuse / Marquette |
| 0.47 | 0.89 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 19.342% | Kansas / Florida | Indiana / Miami |
| 0.47 | 0.89 | 0.68 | 0.32 | 9.102% | Kansas / Florida | Indiana / Marquette |
| 0.47 | 0.89 | 0.32 | 0.68 | 9.102% | Kansas / Florida | Syracuse / Miami |
| 0.47 | 0.89 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 4.283% | Kansas / Florida | Syracuse / Marquette |
| 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 2.391% | Kansas / FGCU | Indiana / Miami |
| 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.68 | 0.32 | 1.125% | Kansas / FGCU | Indiana / Marquette |
| 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.32 | 0.68 | 1.125% | Kansas / FGCU | Syracuse / Miami |
| 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.529% | Kansas / FGCU | Syracuse / Marquette |
March 26th, 2013 at 12:59 PM ^
I have a lot of respect for Silver and his work. I also think it's great that he's gotten a fair amount of popularity for advanced data-crunching skills. Geek power and all that.
Plus 3.8% seems somewhat reasonable give that a simple 1/16 chance equals 6.25% and Michigan's road is likely to be tougher than most teams' road to the Championship Game. So I don't really see that much awry in his assessment. (I still like Michigan's chances, but I'm a tad biased.)
But it's interesting to note that he's the son of an MSU department head (Poli Sci) and was born and raised in E. Lansing. Just thought I'd through those tidbits out for the tinfoil hat crowd to chew upon.
Here is the article you're referring to.
He's got Louisville around a 30%, Florida around 20%, Indiana aournd 10%, and a whole lot of teams in the same boat with Michigan. In Louisville vs the field, I'm still taking the field at higher than 70%...I dont see them getting there.
Kenpom gives us a 3.2% chance of winning it all. Compare that to Florida (29.2%), Louisville (25.3%), Indiana (13%), and Ohio State (8.5%). The probability of an all Big Ten final four is .64% according to Kenpom.
...numbers is that they only make sense some times but not all. Sure if Michigan played in one thousand Sweet Sixteens then they would prevail thirty-eight times. But the fact is that they are only playing in one Sweet Sixteen and only need to win it one time.
Trying to give people expectations of 3.8 wins when only 1 is even possible is really just unnecessary and probably an abuse of mathematics. If Michigan is going to win it this year they say that there is a 100 percent chance or if Michigan isn't going to win it this year then say that there is a 0 percent chance. There's really on two possiblities and it's not that difficult to figure out...if they'd stop confusing people.
Nor does he pretend to be one. He's just giving odds.
MUST BEAT KANSAS...MUST BEAT KANSAS...MUST BEAT KANSAS...rinse and repeat peeps!
Oh...yeah.
Chances now 6.25%
Beat Kansas 12.5%
Beat Florida 25%
Beat Duke 50%
Beat Miami 100%
You've got your last two mixed up again.
as he's rather well respected statistician. He's actually most notably known for projecting all 50 states correctly in the last presidential election.
Lastly, he alludes to using kenpom, so it's not like his numbers are coming from nowhere. Full breakdown of his pre-tournament analysis here.
It was a joke to point out that the 81.45% is the only real answer that we will accept.
Nate Silver is a witch. I don't trust him. He uses magic.
~Herm
Herm, you are awesome.
Seems far less treacherous
Take your calculator, put it back in your desk, leave the office, go home, and kill yourself.
Now there are TWO maths? And they disagree?
DAMNIT. I was told there would be NO maths. Now there are two. This is BS.
I much preferred the 81.45% chance we had all agreed upon earlier.
on the 3000 hit club.
So what your're saying is my team has as much of a chance of being successful as I was when asking for dates in high school?
I call BS.
There's no way you had a 3.8% chance when asking for dates.
Well, I know one thing for certain. If we win 4 more games our chances of winning increase to 100%
So he gives us roughly 45% chance to win each game (45%^4)? Hmm, I'll take it.. I guess.
....and even then (I'm a Mac user and can't seem to post image)
KenPom Odds for Michigan:
- vs. KU: 47%
- vs. UF: 40%
- vs. IU: 42%
- vs. UofL: 40%
- vs. Duke: 46%
- vs. Sparty: 49%
- vs. Ohio: 46%
- vs. Miami: 53%
Clearly UF would be a matchup issue for us. Since it's basically our worst possible matchup of the remaining teams (outside of UofL).
[Edit - these are all taken from the analysis someone here posted before the tournament started. the odds now, I would guess, are more in Michigan's favor.]
This math, it hurts my head.