Week #6 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Illinois

Submitted by Enjoy Life on October 9th, 2012 at 1:06 PM


Prediction for Illinois: The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is Michigan 34 – Illinois 6 with a 97% Probable Win Expectation for Michigan. This game is a complete mismatch in every category.

Fremeau Efficiency Index: After a large improvement for Michigan during the bye week, the overall FEI barely moved after the Purdue game. The offense efficiency also was basically unchanged while the defense efficiency improved significantly (from #48 to #33).

The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

imageNational Rankings: The rankings for Week #6 offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.



FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan and their opponent ( Football Outsiders FEI ).

imageimagePoints Per Possession: The offense had their second best performance of the year and the defense had their best performance of the year.

The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense with the number of possessions adjusted for "kneel downs" at the half or end-of-game (maximum deduction = 2).

Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).




October 9th, 2012 at 2:44 PM ^

Based on the current numbers (40 offense and 33 defense), we have an 82% chance of going 9-4 or better?

That sounds like good news.

I have to think a 10 win season is pretty likely.


BTW - Some of your links take me to outdated BCFToys pages, not the current ones.


October 9th, 2012 at 11:00 PM ^

Great stuff.  Thanks for posting.  My only wish is that there were better statistics generally available for defensive players. The box score statistics kept for many positions, especially linemen, are so inadequate.  They only capture a small portion of what players actually achieve on the field. For example, Burgeoning Wolverine Star has done an excellent job of analyzing a play that Quinton Washington blew up in the second half against Purdue:


Washington pushes the left guard back into the pulling right guard who then bumps into the RB as he takes the handoff.  Jake Ryan finishes the play with a great open field tackle, but even if he misses, there are several other players in postion to make a TFL on the play. It is well defended all around, but it is Washington's play that almost guarantees somebody is going to earn a TFL.  The TFL, of course, does show up in the box score, but Washington's excellent play does not.


Edit: Posted to wrong thread.  My first two sentences still stand.  Everything else was intended for a different thread.