Big Ten Recruiting Rankings: 8-5-12
Little of note in this week's rankings, though once again Penn State loses a commitment, this time to Notre Dame. As a result, PSU continues to drop down the board. Changes since the last rankings:
8-1-12: Purdue picks up Austin Logan.
8-3-12: Illinois picks up Darwyn Kelly.
8-4-12: Northwestern picks up Keith Watkins.
8-5-12: William Fuller decommits from Penn State. Notre Dame picks up William Fuller.
Chart? Chart:
Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | School | # Commits | Rivals Avg | Scout Avg | 24/7 Avg | ESPN Avg | Avg Avg^ |
1 | Michigan | 23 | 3.57 | 3.82 | 3.78 | 3.70 | 3.72 |
2 | Notre Dame | 19 | 3.53 | 3.89 | 3.74 | 3.79 | 3.74 |
3 | Ohio State | 16 | 3.69 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.81 | 3.69 |
4 | Iowa | 16 | 2.88 | 2.75 | 3.06 | 2.94 | 2.91 |
5 | Illinois | 16 | 2.94 | 2.75 | 2.63 | 3.13 | 2.86 |
6 | Northwestern | 16 | 2.69 | 2.63 | 2.81 | 2.88 | 2.75 |
7 | Nebraska | 12 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 3.42 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
8 | Penn State | 11 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
9 | Wisconsin | 12 | 3.17 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.10 |
10 | Michigan State | 11 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.27 | 3.07 |
11 | Purdue | 10 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.55 |
12 | Indiana | 5 | 2.80 | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.53 |
13 | Minnesota | 5 | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.50 |
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.
NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.
To eliminate any confusion about how the rankings are determined (to be honest, they used to be arbitrary), team order is determined by multiplying the number of commits by star average.
On to the full data after the jump.
#1 Michigan - 23 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Shane Morris | QB | MI | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Patrick Kugler | OL | PA | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Dymonte Thomas | S | OH | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Kyle Bosch | OL | IL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Jake Butt | TE | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Taco Charlton | DE | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
David Dawson | OL | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Chris Fox | OL | CO | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Ben Gedeon | LB | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Jourdan Lewis | CB | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Mike McCray | LB | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Henry Poggi | DT | MD | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Logan Tuley-Tillman | OL | IL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Wyatt Shallman | ATH | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Ross Douglas | CB | OH | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Gareon Conley | CB | OH | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
DeVeon Smith | RB | OH | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Maurice Hurst Jr. | DT | MA | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Jaron Dukes | WR | OH | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Khalid Hill | TE | MI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Csont'e York | WR | MI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Channing Stribling | CB | NC | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Scott Sypniewski | LS | IL | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Scott Sypniewski gets two stars from ESPN.
#2 Notre Dame - 19 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Jaylon Smith | LB | IN | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Alex Anzalone | LB | PA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Hunter Bivin | OL | KY | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Steven Elmer | OL | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Mike Heuerman | TE | FL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Mike McGlinchey | OL | PA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Isaac Rochell | DE | GA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Malik Zaire | QB | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
John Montelus | OL | MA | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Jamel James | RB | TX | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Colin McGovern | OL | IL | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Jacob Matuska | DE | OH | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
James Onwualu | WR | MN | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
William Fuller | WR | PA | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Danny Mattingly | TE | WA | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Corey Robinson | WR | TX | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Rashad Kinlaw | ATH | NJ | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Devin Butler | CB | DC | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Michael Deeb | LB | FL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
The Irish flip PA WR William Fuller from his previous commitment to Penn State.
#3 Ohio State - 16 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Cameron Burrows | CB | OH | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Jalin Marshall | ATH | OH | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Joey Bosa | DE | FL | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Eli Woodard | CB | NJ | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
J.T. Barrett | QB | TX | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Marcus Baugh | TE | CA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Michael Hill | DT | SC | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Evan Lisle | OL | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Billy Price | DT | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Ezekiel Elliott | RB | MO | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Jayme Thompson | S | OH | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Darron Lee | ATH | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Tracy Sprinkle | DE | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Taivon Jacobs | WR | MD | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Tim Gardner | OL | IN | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Johnny Townsend | P | FL | NR | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Johnny Townsend gets three stars from ESPN.
#4 Iowa - 16 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
David Kenney | DE | IN | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Delano Hill | S | MI | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Jon Wisnieski | TE | IA | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Colin Goebel | OL | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Brant Gressel | DT | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
John Kenny | LB | IN | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Derrick Mitchell Jr. | S | MO | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Malik Rucker | S | MN | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Solomon Warfield | S | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Sean Welsh | OL | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Derrick Willies | WR | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Nathan Bazata | DT | NE | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Nic Shimonek | QB | TX | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Trevon Young | LB | IA | NR | 2 | 4 | NR |
Ike Boettger | TE | IA | NR | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Andre Harris | ATH | MO | NR | 2 | NR | NR |
No change for the Hawkeyes.
#5 Illinois - 16 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Aaron Bailey | QB | IL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Caleb Day | CB | OH | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Darius Mosely | CB | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Jarrod Clements | DE | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Reon Dawson | CB | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Christian DiLauro | TE | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Kenton Gibbs | DT | MI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Merrick Jackson | DT | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Dillan Cazley | CB | IL | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Joshua Jones | S | MI | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Kendrick Foster | RB | IL | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Darwyn Kelly | S | DC | 3 | 2 | NR | 3 |
Dawuane Smoot | DE | OH | 3 | 2 | NR | 3 |
Jesse Chadwell | OL | MI | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Austin Schmidt | OL | OH | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Bryce Douglas | DT | IL | NR | 2 | NR | 3 |
The Illini add DC S Darwyn Kelly. Joshua Jones picks up three stars from ESPN.
#6 Northwestern - 16 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Matt Alviti | QB | IL | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Sam Coverdale | OL | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Blake King | OL | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Brad North | OL | TX | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Kyle Queiro | ATH | NJ | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Anthony Walker Jr. | LB | FL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Keith Watkins | RB | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Eric Joraskie | DE | PA | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Warren Miles-Long | RB | CA | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Macan Wilson | WR | TX | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Jayme Taylor | TE | TX | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Xavier Menifield | RB | CA | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Matt Harris | WR | IL | NR | 2 | 3 | NR |
Tyler Lancaster | OL | IL | NR | 2 | 3 | NR |
Brett Walsh | LB | CA | NR | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Hunter Miswander | K | OH | NR | 2 | 2 | 2 |
The Wildcats gain a commitment from OH RB Keith Watkins. Xavier Menefield picks up three stars from 247, while Hunter Niswander gets two stars each from 247 and ESPN. Northwestern jumps a plummeting Penn State class in the rankings.
#7 Nebraska - 12 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Marcus McWilson | S | OH | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Josh Banderas | LB | NE | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Marcus Newby | LB | MD | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Christian Lacouture | DE | TX | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
A.J. Natter | DE | WI | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Courtney Love | LB | OH | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Johnny Stanton | QB | CA | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Nathan Gerry | S | SD | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Kevin Gladney | WR | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Greg Hart | TE | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Dan Samuelson | OL | IN | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Gabriel Miller | LS | IN | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Gabriel Miller gets two stars from ESPN. Nebraska barely edges past Penn State on the big board.
#8 Penn State - 11 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Adam Breneman | TE | PA | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Dorian Johnson | OL | PA | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Christian Hackenberg | QB | VA | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Garrett Sickels | DE | NJ | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Brendan Mahon | OL | NJ | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Zayd Issah | LB | PA | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Andrew Nelson | OL | PA | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Brandon Bell | LB | NJ | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Zach Bradshaw | WR | MD | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Curtis Cothran | DE | NJ | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Neiko Robinson | S | FL | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
The Nittany Lions suffer another decommit as in-state WR William Fuller changes his commitment to Notre Dame. Christian Hackenberg is upgraded to five stars on 247.
#9 Wisconsin - 12 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Darius Latham | DT | IN | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Chikwe Obasih | DE | WI | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Rob Wheelwright | WR | OH | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Austin Ramesh | ATH | WI | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Garret Dooley | LB | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Jack Keeler | OL | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Hayden Biegel | OL | WI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Keelon Brookins | CB | MN | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Matt Miller | OL | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
T.J. Watt | ATH | WI | 3 | 3 | 3 | NR |
Sam Raridon | DT | IA | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Jazz Peavy | WR | WI | 3 | 2 | 2 | NR |
No change for the Badgers.
#10 Michigan State - 11 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Jon Reschke | LB | MI | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Shane Jones | LB | OH | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Damion Terry | QB | PA | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Darian Hicks | CB | OH | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Jalyn Powell | S | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Gerald Holmes | RB | MI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
R.J. Shelton | RB | WI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Trey Kilgore | WR | OH | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Devyn Salmon | DT | FL | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Jay Harris | WR | PA | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Dylan Chmura | TE | WI | NR | 2 | 2 | NR |
No change for the Spartans.
#11 Purdue - 10 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Danny Etling | QB | IN | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Keyante Green | RB | GA | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Randy Gregory | DE | AZ | 3 | 3 | 3 | JC |
Austin Logan | S | FL | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
David Yancey | RB | IN | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Myles Norwood | WR | TX | 2 | NR | 3 | NR |
Johnny Thompson | DE | GA | NR | 3 | NR | NR |
Jake Replogle | DE | OH | NR | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Parker Cothren | DE | AL | NR | 2 | 2 | 2 |
John Strauser | DE | IL | NR | 2 | NR | NR |
The Boilermakers add FL S Austin Logan. Parker Cothren gets two stars from ESPN.
#12 Indiana - 5 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Danny Friend | TE | IL | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Isaac Griffith | WR | IN | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Evan Jansen | TE | OH | 3 | 2 | 3 | NR |
Demetrius Hill | DT | KS | 3 | NR | NR | JC |
Patrick Dougherty | DE | OH | NR | 2 | 2 | 2 |
No change for the Hoosiers.
#13 Minnesota - 5 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | 24/7 | ESPN |
Alex Mayes | OL | TX | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Owen Salzwedel | DE | WI | NR | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Chris Wipson | LB | MN | 2 | 2 | NR | 3 |
Chris Streveler | QB | IL | NR | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Jordan Hinojosa | DT | KS | NR | 2 | NR | JC |
Chris Wipson picks up three stars from ESPN.
I knew Dantonio was cleaning up in Michigan some while RR recruited out of state and (mostly) Florida, and that when Hoke took over we'd win the home state handily, but I'm surprised to see Illinois has more Michigan commits than Sparty at this point.
All due respect to Sparty, Illinois is a much better school than MSU (US News says #45 vs. #71).
I think the bigger issue is that the couple of feeder schools MSU was feasting on while RR was in town dried up a bit, plus Hoke is a much better in-state recruiter. That said, if Illinois is poaching talent from Michigan and not their own backyard, that would trouble me as an Illini fan.
That's true, but I was just trying to make a simpler point. I'm suprised they have only 11 commits, and only 2 are from Michigan.
August 7th, 2012 at 11:00 PM ^
We're only looking for 15/16 kids this year, and the only one on our board from Michigan still is Dennis Finley from CT
That probably has more to do with sheer numbers than anything.
MSU only has 10 commits at this point vs 16 for Illinois, and Illinois only has 1 more player from Michigan. I would be very surprised if by the time MSU had 16 players, they didn't gain at least 1 more from Michigan.
Will ND move ahead of Michigan if they end up with same number of recruits in the class and a slightly higher star average? I wasn't for sure if position of need or depth building is considered.
Yes:
To eliminate any confusion about how the rankings are determined (to be honest, they used to be arbitrary), team order is determined by multiplying the number of commits by star average.
Ace,
Are the national recruting rankings ( ie: ESPN, Rivals, etc) arbitrary or do they use a similar formula as yours?
Rivals, Scout, and 247 all have their own formulas, though they're a bit more complicated than commits x star average. ESPN doesn't list a formula, and I believe theirs are entirely arbitrary.
FWIW, I actually prefer the more subjective way of ranking these classes. You could argue that what you're doing now is equally arbitrary - just arbitrary in the sense that there's no obvious reason why the total number of stars should be the only ranking criterion.
Obviously not a big deal either way.
I made the switch to a strict formula because there were a fair amount of questions about team placement and "that's where I thought they should go" didn't feel like a suitable explanation. There are certainly flaws with this method—I think Penn State should be a spot higher, for example—but there's a reason all the individual data is included: you can draw your own conclusions from the data provided. There's never going to be a perfect solution, but with recruiting, it's such an imperfect science anyway that there's no point in getting too caught up in the numbers.
Fair enough. I actually like and trust your judgment more than I like and trust this formula, but again, not a big deal.
I'm flattered. I could honestly go either way with the rankings; with recruiting, I'm more concerned about giving a good overview of who's in each class than trying to nail the exact order of classes when we won't really know how good they are for another five years. Like you said, it's just not a big deal.
August 6th, 2012 at 10:01 AM ^
It would seem that some measure of star ratings and filling positions of need would be a better measure, but much more complex to figure out and calculate.
So this works for me.
Class alittle low. I get that they have lost a lot of solid players, but they still have a total of three 5* star players from combined sites.
The rankings are strictly mathematical, as Ace has explained. In order for you to persuade Ace that he has Penn State ranked incorrectly, you have to address either a math error or a specific data error.
You may not like strictly mathematical rankings because you have a different "gut feeling" than the math delivers, but the proper response is to make your own list and explain your own rankings, not just tell someone that they are wrong.
Sorry, but you hit on a pet peeve. Just because there are numbers attached to something, that doesn't make it objective truth. There are many debatable assumptions and decisions that go into setting a ranking algorithm. There are a lot of reasons to object other than just "math errors" or "specific data errors."
I don't think this is a battle worth fighting, but this isn't the way I would rank classes. For example, I'd much rather have a class of 21 consensus four-star recruits than 28 consensus three-star recruits, but this ranking system calls them equal. My two cents are that the best way to do this actually involves looking over the classes, thinking about them, and then coming up with a defensible rationale for why they should be ranked in a certain way. (As a side note, I say this as a math guy who does math things in his working life.)
I belive some of the national services only rank a school's top 20 (or 22 or 24) players. That makes a lot of sense to me, even if it's still only a rough indication. But capping it that way doesn't "reward" a school for racking up 3 stars (after a certain point, more is not necessarily better); or, to look at it another way, if you stop at 22 you don't "penalize" for adding depth (or kickers) to an already strong group - say, if Michigan adds a 2-star sleeper on signing day, does that make their class worse?
I agree that it's an interesting way to rank classes, but I don't love that one either. It fails to account for the opportunity cost associated with every scholarship used. For example, Michigan is better off signing the class it has now than signing that class plus my grandfather and my arthritic Uncle James. Although they would be hilarious in Michigan uniforms, scholarships are four year commitments these days (at Michigan at least), so signing them would mean two fewer places for slightly more talented 2014 recruits.
Still, I'm sympathetic to the needs of the recruiting sites to use some kind of formula, since it's too hard to look across dozens of classes and reasonably rank them. I think that's more feasible with just the Big Ten.
you do realize that if you stopped at 19 players, or say 18 players, Notre Dame could be considered to have a better class than us?
How would you feel about that?
Stopping at one number or another is arbitrary in and of itself... I like what Ace does but I also think that Penn State's class should be 4th or 5th (personally I would just count four star recruits and above, but that is a whole nother ball of wax) at this point.
love,
jdon
There is big drop off after UM, ND and OSU, but Iowa's class is pretty good. This might be one of their better ranked teams. I wonder if the new blood in terms of new OC and DC is partially responsible for this?
Something tells me Brian Kelly was one of the early birds in State College, waiting outside the athletic facilities.
August 6th, 2012 at 12:04 PM ^
rivals shows osu with 16 commits and a 3.8 rating, not 3.69. you might want to double check the figures.
August 6th, 2012 at 12:11 PM ^
Rivals is averaging the ratings of their 15 rated players (and ignoring the unrated 16th player), so 57/15 = 3.8.
Ace assigns a "2" for any nonrated player and averages all the players, so 59/16=3.69.
August 6th, 2012 at 12:15 PM ^
so that unrated player must be the punter, and i have heard he is a good one, so minus his non rating it is still 3.8 then.
Can we not have the weekly dumb OSU fan questioning a system that has already been established as inherently arbitrary? You're making us all look bad.
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