A Complete History of Michigan in Preseason Polls
[ed-S: Bumped like an Elliott]
With the polls released today, let's take a look back on Michigan's history in being ranked in the preseason. Interesting note, 40 years ago in 1972, Michigan was ranked #8 in the preseason by the coaches poll and won the Big Ten Championship.
AP Coaches Final Record
1950 3 (3) 7 6-3-1
1951 17 9 4-5-0
1952 NR NR 5-4-0
1953 NR NR 6-3-0
1954 NR 20 6-3-0
1955 NR NR 7-2-0
1956 8 (2) 12 7-2-0
1957 6 (3) 7 5-3-1
1958 NR NR 2-6-1
1959 NR NR 4-5-0
1960 NR NR 5-4-0
1961 NR NR 6-3-0
1962 NR NR 2-7-0
1963 NR NR 3-4-2
1964 NR NR 9-1-0
1965 4 (5) 4 4-6-0
1966 NR NR 6-4-0
1967 NR NR 4-6-0
1968 NR NR 8-2-0
1969 NR 12 8-3-0
1970 8 9 9-1-0
1971 4 (1) 9 11-1-0
1972 6 8 10-1-0
1973 5 (2) 6 10-0-1
1974 6 (1) 6 10-1-0
1975 3 (1) 3 8-2-2
1976 2 (10) 8 10-2-0
1977 2 (19) 3 10-2-0
1978 6 9 10-2-0
1979 7 5 8-4-0
1980 12 18 10-2-0
1981 1 (38) 4 9-3-0
1982 12 12 8-4-0
1983 10 (1) NR 9-3-0
1984 14 (1) 8 6-6-0
1985 NR NR 10-1-1
1986 2 (6) 2 11-2-0
1987 7 8 8-4-0
1988 11 (1) 19 9-2-1
1989 1 (23) 4 10-2-0
1990 6 7 9-3-0
1991 2 (5) 7 10-2-0
1992 6 (1) 6 9-0-3
1993 3 (3) 5 8-4-0
1994 5 (2) 21 8-4-0
1995 14 12 9-4
1996 14 17 8-4
1997 14 20 12-0
1998 5 (4) 1 10-3
1999 8 12 10-2
2000 6 5 9-3
2001 12 11 8-4
2002 12 20 10-3
2003 4 (2) 9 10-3
2004 8 6 9-3
2005 4 14 7-5
2006 14 NR 11-2
2007 5 8 9-4
2008 NR 18 3-9
2009 NR NR 5-7
2010 NR NR 7-6
2011 NR NR 11-2
2012 8
So basically we are looking at a 9-3 season. Which is what most of expect this year I think.
Interesting that some years the two polls seem to match up...give or take a few spots, but other years there are huge differences
Any way of adding the final ranking to see whether we wound up rising or falling?
NR in '06, or #18 in '08?
18 in '08.
But with all of these, its very hard to tell what kind of season Michigan is going to have. I've been following the team since '79. My love for Michigan football is only teased and tortured by the rankings. I really try not to look at them. That said, it is always better to exceed expectations.
Michigan is currently in its longest drought ever (since 1950 anyway) of receiving at least one first place vote in the AP preseason poll.
First off, I was only old enough to know what's going on from '93 on. But, it seems to me that the pollsters don't predict our final wins and losses very well. Of the 9 times we were ranked in the top 10 we only lost fewer than 3 games once (1999). And, of the four seasons we finished with 2 or fewer losses, our preseason rank only cracked the top 10 once (also 1999). Our best seasons were 1997 with 0 losses, and 1999, 2006, and 2001 all with 2 losses respectively. But, as a team ranked in the preseason top 10 we finished a heck of a lot of seasons with 3 and 4 losses. Granted, sometimes #8, #9, and #10 teams finish with 3 losses, but not always & it's really rare to see a top 10 team have 4 loses....I can't think of one in recent memory. It doesn't seem like our preseason ranking is all that indicitivive of our final wins and losses. Plus there is a huge difference between 2 losses and 4.
Preseason rankings are of the talent of the team. not a prediction of their outcome. so in a year like this with a tough schedule, people may think we are the 8th best team, but don't think we will finish with a good record because of that tough schedule. conversely, if we had a worse team but a very easy schedule, a preaseason poll should rank us lower, even if our record is expected to be better
Dothepose was dead center from the standpoint of past performance -
In the 22 seasons in this list that we've been ranked 8th or higher in the Coaches' Poll, we are 189-59-7 in those years, which is essentially good for a 9-3 record in a given season for historic performance. In the 4 years we were exactly 8th in the Coaches poll, we were 34-13 overall in those seasons, which is also a 9-3 record. At least in the past, these have been pretty good years, and really, 9-3 would be a realistic expectation this year, I believe.
A bit of trivia - in years where we have been ranked in one preseason poll or the other, we average 7th in the AP and 11th in the Coaches' Poll.
I was a bit suprised, however when considering the other "elite" type programs (USC, Texas, etc), it sort of makes sense. I wasn't however suprised to see ND at the top of the most overrated since '89.
but to me, this looks like a glaring indictment of how past success skews preseason polls.
That about sums it up, I think.
August 6th, 2012 at 10:24 AM ^
The last 2 times we went 11-2 (1986 and 2006), we were also ranked 8 in the preseason Coaches poll the following year. We went 8-4 (1987) and 9-4 (2007) so it looks like we are looking at 4 losses this year (9-4 or maybe 10-4 if we play in and lose the Big Ten Championship game). I hope we buck this trend.
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