Annual Complaint Against Stupid System Comment Count

Brian

The conference championships are completed and it's not that one year Vince Young played USC, so the BCS's answer is a stupid one. Yes. Yes, it is that time again.

BCSOnNotice

this "On Notice" board from 2006 is remarkably apropos today save for the hatred directed at random SEC mediocrities who failed to beat Florida

If the BCS hadn't popped out of its mother in midair above a dorsal fin, this would be the moment when it jumped the shark. Since it did we have to invent a new term for a terrible thing everyone hates reaching maximum troll. The BCS just Clay Travised all over us.

Anyway, every year at this time I pull out the MGoPlayoff proposal. I don't do this in any real hope it will make a difference, since anyone who could assemble our current system will botch a playoff just as badly. I don't really know why I do it. Maybe it makes me feel better—yes, there is a hypothetical version of college football that makes a goddamn lick of sense.

The goal!

CREATE A SINGLE TEAM WITH THE DEFINITIVELY BEST RESUME. College football is unique amongst sports in that the national title is essentially decided by eyeballing it. The only thing the BCS changed was to take the one team people used to eyeball and turn it into two. Hinton:

What we should be asking instead is, why does college football and college football alone insist on wedging itself into this ridiculous corner year after year? When did we concede to leave the results of a sport to a cacophonous, ill-informed debating society? How have we convinced ourselves that dragging statistics and resumés and eyeball tests to the podium — along with preconceived biases that trump them all — can possibly deliver a satisfying answer?

Obviously, it can't. Any answer to an unanswerable question is the wrong answer.

Literally every observer who has ever laid eyes on the Bowl Championship Series has mocked it as an absurd anachronism, and continues to mock it to this day. Rightly so. Every sane observer within the sport has mocked it as an absurd anachronism. Seriously: Voting on the better football team? Are we still doing this? We're really going to do it again? Deferring to polls and algorithms in a competition that keeps score? Why are we still doing this?

Because of the unique structure of college football, a playoff can be constructed to be inherently satisfying. That is: you can make something that always leaves one team alone atop a pile of skulls no one else in the country can match. This is obviously not the case right now.

The key components!

RESTRICTED FIELD. No 9-3 teams. Maintain as much of the importance of the regular season as possible. Keep out anyone who could win three straight and still reasonably have an AP vote go against them.

HOME GAMES. Helps with attendance, prevents people from having to travel multiple weeks, helps maintain importance of regular season, makes the guys at the bottom wade through a tougher task and helps bolster their pile-of-skulls argument.

BYES. Again, importance of regular season and pile-of-skulls argument.

NO AUTOBIDS, MAX TWO TEAMS PER CONFERENCE. Autobids can suck it. So can third place teams in their own conference. Also no first round intraconference matchups.

FINAL AT THE ROSE BOWL. Iconic. Would become one of the great traditions in American sports.

This year's version based on the final BCS standings:

1. LSU vs winner of 4. Stanford and 7. Boise State
2. Alabama vs winner of 3. Oklahoma State and 5. Oregon

Arkansas is left out because of the two-teams-per-conference rule; Boise and Oregon flip to prevent a conference matchup. The first two games would be this weekend with the second round on January 1st (2nd this year) and the final a week after. Anyone outside of the final four can go to whatever bowl they want, so this hardly touches the bowl system. The net result is removing one BCS bowl in favor of the playoff.

An eight team version of this is less ideal but also acceptable; that would see Kansas State and Wisconsin on the road in the first round against the SEC teams. Autobids are awful. Clemson and West Virginia can win three straight games here and still not be as worthy as LSU.

The pointlessness of existence!

Don't bother telling me it's not happening.  I know.

henri-the-otter-of-ennu

After the jump: blogpoll ballot time. Sure to endear me to Alabama fans even more.

Here you go. No deltas because I forgot to vote last week while I was bathing in the sweet feeling of not wanting to throw up after the last game of the season.

ALABAMA. Admittedly, this is a protest vote, but Nick Saban voted Oklahoma State #4. Die in a fire.

If I had a real vote that affected anything I'd burn it in the name of not having a divisional rematch for the title game. Save your arguments about putting the "best two teams" on the field. We have no idea who the best two teams are. Alabama's schedule is weak, they didn't strangle Penn State with the authoritah Wisconsin did, and their best win is against Arkansas, which seems like a paper tiger itself. The only thing we know about Alabama is they lost to LSU at home and a rematch literally cannot produce a satisfying outcome.

If this doesn't destroy the BCS, nothing will. It won't.

BIG TEN FUTZERING. Yeah, MSU above Michigan. It's razor thin now but going 1-1 against Wisconsin in the way they did is a net asset Michigan does not have. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has to be sick to their stomach about the back to back Hail Mary incidents, either one of which going the other way would probably have gotten them to the title game.

BAYLOR! Your guess is as good as mine, man. I had them 9th, and then 20th, and I gave up. Hypothetically: is this what Michigan looks like if Rodriguez is around for year four?

CLEMSON? Oh, Clemson. What the helling hell. I find you to be so very Clemson.

YOU TRY TO FIND SOMEONE OTHER THAN ND FOR THE LAST SPOT. Go ahead.

[UPDATE: Well done. I left South Carolina and TCU out. South Carolina slots in at 14, TCU at 20, and GT and ND disappear.]

Comments

mbrummer

December 5th, 2011 at 12:14 PM ^

I don't think this a workable plan.  You say that teams losing in the first round would still be eligible for bowls, but that would be holding spaces for them as well.  Thus delaying  all the bowl announcements by another week.

Eventually, there's not enough time to plan flights, hotel rooms etc .  It's not a big deal if you are going to Florida or New Orleans, but I would think the lower tier bowls could be severly harmed by not knowing their matchups.

brandanomano

December 5th, 2011 at 3:54 PM ^

Easy, two bowls have a reserved spot for the losers of the "wild-card" games and pick the other team.

I don't think planning flights and hotel rooms would be that difficult to get sorted out. Worst case scenario is the Bowl that's hosting reserves plane tickets and hotel rooms for the teams if an extra week would prevent them from getting either of those.

RoxyMtnHiM

December 5th, 2011 at 12:14 PM ^

Brian, I disagree with you on one wee little point: A playoff will happen, and it will happen as soon as the pile o' money associated with a playoff is obviously larger than the pile o' money associated with the current farce of exhibitions and, in your apt term, eyeballing. That's not going to be next year, and it probably won't be in five, but it will be in our lifetimes and we those of us lucky enough to get to the mountaintop will pass into the Great Beyond comfortable in the knowledge that our outrage finally persuaded uni prez's and others in jackets left over from ABC's Wide World of Sports to accept a much large pile o' money. It won't be the reason we'd like a playoff to happen, but it will ge the job done. So keep posting your BCS outrage every year at this time.

club2230

December 5th, 2011 at 12:15 PM ^

College football is unique in that there is no playoff which stirs much controversey.  Controversey should be embraced as it is the human aspect of the game. 

#1 Take the two highest ranked conference champions and play them in the title game.  This ensures no Alabama-LSU or UM-OSU.  

#2 Final BCS rankings don't take into account the top 16 coaches rankings.  Saban can vote OSU 4th but it would be meaningless.  

#3 Autobids to remain, but have to be conditional.  No team should be allowed into a BCS game with more than 2 losses.  If a 9-3 team wins the Big East then they do not qualify.

#4 There is not much that you can do about .com bowl games.  If a sponsor wants to host a game and pay a conference a bunch of money than so be it.  It's pretty easy not to watch a 4-8 team play a 6-6 team.  TVs have a bunch of channels.

#5 There will always be shortcomings, and that is entirely ok.

 

Hannibal.

December 5th, 2011 at 12:17 PM ^

College football has the system that it has because you have 120 teams in I-A and only 12 scheduled games a year.  You have huge disparities in schedule strength.  You can't use simple W-L record like you can in the pros.  The only alternative then is a computer formula or human judgement.  Turns out, the BCS uses both.  Complaints that the BCS is just a popularity contest fail to address the fact that a playoff would also be that.  But the margin for error would be higher, because you would have more teams.  But who those teams are and where they get seeded would still be essentially voted on.  The bigger you make a playoff, the less important that judgement becomes.  But that also means that you make the regular season less important too. 

The decline of the non-conference schedule is a big contributing factor to this controversy and confusion.  Teams used to play a lot more quality OOC opponents, and that gave you a better sample size for judging teams.  Michigan, for example. played Miami and Notre Dame in the same year once.  A couple of years later, we played FSU and ND.  Later, we played UCLA and Colorado in the same year.  When you've got more matchups like this, you get a better idea of where all the teams stand. 

Ed Shuttlesworth

December 5th, 2011 at 12:21 PM ^

In retrospect, all the BCS has done has moved up the date the rankings really matter to before the bowl games.  Under the old system, you had the advantage of the data points the bowl games gave you.  

They should just go back to the old conference tie-ins with the bowls and the old system and when the bowls are done, have a committee of serious people (i.e., no Bristol Clown College assclowns) pick the two best teams, and play one more game. 

That system wouldn't be perfect --There would be years like 2011, where if LSU beats whoever in the Sugar Bowl, they shouldn't have to play the final, but those years would be few and far between and more than made up for by NEB-MICH in 1997 or NEB-Penn State in 1994.  On balance it would be a far better system than the absolute joke that is the BCS.

Needs

December 5th, 2011 at 12:28 PM ^

Saban voting Okie State #4 hasn't received nearly the criticism it deserves. Add in that Gundy doesnt even have a vote. The coaches poll should be shot into space.

CompleteLunacy

December 5th, 2011 at 2:02 PM ^

How absurd of a system do we have that is so obviously influenced by biased voters? How can any voter objectively look at what OSU did and proclaim that 5 teams had better resumes? And yet, here we have a system that allows this to happen and legitimately influence the outcome of the BCS..

gajensen

December 5th, 2011 at 12:37 PM ^

I stand by my proposal of an eight team playoff with the six BCS conference champions automatically qualifying, two at large teams, and, only two teams allowed from the same conference, while maintaining the current BCS bowl structure as the first round of the playoffs.
 

Rose Bowl: 10 Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)  v 5 Oregon (Pac 12 Champ)
Sugar Bowl: 1 LSU (SEC Champ) vs 23 West Virginia (Big East Champ?)
Fiesta Bowl: 3 Oklahoma State (Big 12 Champ) vs 4 Stanford (At-large from Pac 12)
Orange Bowl: 11 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ) vs 2 Alabama (At-large from SEC)

The Sugar/Fiesta/Orange Bowl AQ teams would pick their opponents by ranking seniority.  LSU would pick first and choose the 23rd team.  Oklahoma State would pick second and opt for Stanford rather than Alabama.

The second round would avoid intraconference rematches if there were any.  If there weren't, then teams would be reseeded and play accordingly.
1 LSU would play 5 Oregon
2 Alabama would play 3 Oklahoma State

Elmer

December 5th, 2011 at 12:41 PM ^

Go back to the old bowl system and then have the winners of the Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Suger have a final four playoff.  Would require only three extra games compared to the old system used for decades.

Eight teams would have a shot at the championship.  If you don't make the final 8, too bad.

Edit: the post above says the same thing, but with more detail. 

indi_blue

December 5th, 2011 at 1:27 PM ^

I also like to going back to the old bowl system and I would just stop there.   There is much joy in just playing for Rose Bowl for B10 and Pac12 as the main goal.  Let others figure out Mythical championship.  But atlease for players and fans there is clear cut goal.

Mr. Yost

December 5th, 2011 at 12:42 PM ^

#1 LSU vs. #10 (#8) Wisconsin (Arkansas & S. Carolina are both ineligible)
Game Date: 12/24/11
Game Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Game Time: 3:30pm

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Oregon
Game Date: 12/24/11
Game Location: Eugene, OR
Game Time: 9:30pm

#3 Oklahoma St. vs. #7 (#6) Boise St.
Game Date: 12/24/11
Game Location: Stillwater, OK
Game Time: 6:30pm

#2 Alabama vs. #8 (#7) Kansas St.
Game Date: 12/24/11
Game Location: Tuscaloosa, AL
Game Time: 12:30pm

***Assuming Top Seeds advance***

#1 LSU vs. #4 Stanford
Game Date: 1/2/12
Game Location: Orange Bowl
Game Time: 9:00pm

#2 Alabama vs. #3 Oklahoma St.
Game Date: 1/2/12
Game Location: Rose Bowl
Game Time: 6:30pm

***Assuming Top Seeds advance***

#1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama
Game Date: 1/16/12
Game Location: Sugar Bowl
Game Time: 9:00pm

 

#8 vs. #9 Game (to fill BCS Bowls – this would always be the bowl that hosted the national championship the year before)

#11 (#8) Virginia Tech vs. #12 (#9) Baylor (Arkansas & S. Carolina are both ineligible)
Game Date: 1/4/12
Game Location: Fiesta Bowl
Game Time: 9:00pm

Mr. Yost

December 5th, 2011 at 12:45 PM ^

Oddly enough, it's Michigan that would be the odd man out of the BCS in this scenario...just missing out on a chance to play Va Tech in the Fiesta Bowl.

 

NOTE: I messed up on the #4/#5 game location...that would NOT be in Eugene, it would obviously be played in Palo Alto, CA.

CRex

December 5th, 2011 at 12:56 PM ^

Kill the Big East and Big 12.  4 super conferences are left.  Round 1 of the playoff are the conference championship games.  Rounds 2 and 3 are basically the +1 system people want.  So we'd be looking at Wisconsin, LSU, Oregon, and Clemson.  I could live with that.  Sugar Bowl is ACC-SEC champ.  Rose Bowl is PAC12-Big12 champ.  NC site rotates between a couple locations.  

First off this keeps regular season play important.  First off you have to win your division, then you have to win the championship game.  In most cases the division is up for grabs until the last game or so in the season.  MSU for example couldn't rest easy until we beat Neb.  So they had a max of one week to mail it in.  In the other division it came down to the wire with Wisconsin vs PSU.  So most years, admittedly not all, teams would be able to mail it in for a week or two at the most.  I guess LSU would have had the longest time to mail it in after they beat Arkansas.  

Now one possible flaw is that OOC schedule is meaningless, because it is all about winning your conference.  However as conferences expand just get them to hold more conference games.  So you get fewer Michigan vs Alabama matchups, but you also get fewer Michigan vs Delaware State matchups.  More conference games means despite the larger conference you still everyone fairly often and you get games that matter.  

The big flaw of course is when 6-6 UCLA somehow punks Oregon.  Then, yeah, urgh.  However just accept it was the price you pay for keeping the rest of the season meaningful (Want to play in the Big Dance?  Make sure you show up to blow those 6-6 teams out!).  It won't happen that often and will be rapidly corrected when someone paves over the 6-6 team in the following round.  

The other bowls can live on of course.  I'll still pay good money to fly somewhere warm and see Michigan play some decent team when seasons like this year happen.  

Playoffs aren't happening and as the risk of concussions and the like becomes more and more an issue, people are going to dig in against a multiple round playoff.  So from a political standpoint co-opt the bowls and the conference championship games to create your first two rounds.  Then just sell people on one more game.  

Edit:  One other point is that with 4 super conferences, the threat of a 6-6 winning out  also drops.  OU and OSU would be in the PAC16 likely.  So the championship could have been OU-Oregon or OSU-Oregon.  Basically if we're at a mixture of 14 and 16 team conferences, then the odds of a 6-6 slipping into a conference championship game are low.  Even the "brutal" SEC managed to get a 12-0 vs 10-2 matchup at the end of the year.  

Needs

December 5th, 2011 at 12:58 PM ^

That could actually be a feature, rather than a bug. While it wouldn't mitigate the financial reasons that requre at least 7 home games (or a big payoff from Jerry Jones) it would take away some of the bowl eligibility fears, and might lead to teams seeing a tough OOC game as better preparing their teams for the conference schedule.

You likely wouldn't see as many OOC schedules like VA Tech's, which prove incredibly rewarding in the current system.

uncleFred

December 5th, 2011 at 12:43 PM ^

If the goal is to have a play off between the 6 (or as some proposed 8) top ranked teams in collegel football why the restriction of two teams per conference? It is probably unlikely that 3 of the top 6/8 would be from a single conference, but if that is how the rankings come out why drop the 3rd team? 

Mr. Yost

December 5th, 2011 at 12:54 PM ^

It takes out some of the regional bias in the voting

It eliminates situations where you could have the 3rd or 4th best teams from conferences playing
---For example, you have Arkansas this year...Alabama and LSU are awesome. They lose those two games, but what if the SEC sucks other than those teams and Arkansas is no good? They beat everyone else, but lose to the top teams and they make it because they played and lost to the top 2 teams in the country?

Va Tech this year is a good example of this...who have they beaten? They lost twice to the best team they've played. They could be a team worthy of a 20-25 ranking and it wouldn't shock anyone. You simply don't know.

You'd just be rewarding teams for playing in a good conference, but not for beating anyone.

It is still college athletics and being more inclusive rather than exclusive is key

School from other conferences wouldn't participate...if every year it was 4 SEC schools, 2 Big Ten Schools, 1 Pac 10 team and 1 Big XII team - why would anyone from the ACC or Big East care or participate?

You have to look out for the "mid-majors"

No one wants to see the 3rd and 4th team from a conference when you already have the top 2.

brianshall

December 5th, 2011 at 12:50 PM ^

Epic, insightful rant but all I kept thinking was...the *coaches* voting the BCS effectively validated oversigning of recruits. 

Who are the worst perps here? LSU and Alabama, right? 

Hugh Jass

December 5th, 2011 at 12:52 PM ^

system is so frustrating that I almost wish (I said almost) that we did not even crown a national champion.....just play the games and say - gee that was fun, then go home.

gbdub

December 5th, 2011 at 1:00 PM ^

Brian, please explain why a 6 team playoff is superior to an 8 team playoff? You imply that it is but never explain why.

To me, 8's a bit better because it at least lets you capture all the big conference champions (maybe with a conditional (no 3 loss teams) autobid) and still slot in a couple sexy non-champs (Stanford, Boise, Alabama).

I think you need some form of autobid, otherwise the conference championship games are just a chance to pick up an extra loss - punishing the big conferences that host championship games.

Plus it helps mitigate the complaints of the regular season not mattering and cases where there are lots of good teams in once conference - sure they'll beat up on each other, but the champion will get a chance to play for the national title.

gbdub

December 5th, 2011 at 1:29 PM ^

Make all the first round games home games. Still a positive to winning the regular season - easier game, big financial payoff.

I don't like giving byes to teams based on poll rankings. Regionally biased polling is what gave us the current mess. A bye, plus playing at home, plus playing a low seed, is too big of an advantage for the top two when #2 and #3 are separated by an eyeball test.

So I guess my big question is, why is a bye week (i.e. less football) a plus?

Hannibal.

December 5th, 2011 at 1:11 PM ^

You've got to keep autobids for the major conferences.  The lore of collge football was built in no small part on games being played in late November and early December as winner-take-all contests with huge stakes.  Nebraska vs. Oklahoma, Michigan vs OSU, Auburn vs. Alabama, the SEC championship game, and now the Big Ten championship game.  You've got to keep that mystique in place for the major conferences. 

Rasmus

December 5th, 2011 at 1:24 PM ^

The basic question is "What is the purpose of the postseason?"

Is it to get the best matchups for bowl games? Because that's what the current system tries to do. It doesn't do it terribly well, but that's the goal -- to produce good games that fans will want to watch.

If, however, the purpose of the postseason is to crown a true national champion (as opposed to just matching up the best teams), you'd need to organize the sport into a set number of conferences and only allow conference champions into a playoff. That would always produce an undisputed champion, but it would not always produce the best games.

ScruffyTheJanitor

December 5th, 2011 at 1:25 PM ^

I've always thought that this would be a great way to do things:

1) Six conferences get an automatic bid. Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, ACC, Big East. Could be 8 if you want to add Conference USA and MWC. I don't.

2) Play an 8 game regular season and have a conference championship. 

3) 16 team tournament; Conference champs + the next 10 (or 8) highest rated teams.  Conference Champs +2 get home field advantage. Could also be a 12 team tourney with a bye for the top 4 ranked teams. 

Of course, there are a few huge problems. like, what about the teams who lose in the tounament? What about the teams who don't make it? I think, though, there would be a real advantage to this, as there could be a "tier" system where teams at the end of conference play are divided up into 16 team sections, where they play a tournament among themselves. In the lower tier systems, every team would be garunteed 1 home game, as with the loosers of the "Winners" braket. 

 

This is the ultimate pipe dream and really (and probably too) convoluted. It would be fun though. 

turd ferguson

December 5th, 2011 at 1:48 PM ^

This is very similar to what I want to see.  The only thing missing is a plan for how to rank/select teams.

I think we need a committee.  It's completely ridiculous to use the coaches poll.  Coaches have all kinds of interests in the outcomes, all kinds of biases about other coaches/programs, virtually no time to follow the rest of college football, and a tendency to hand their ballots to God knows whom.  The Harris poll is a little better, but barely, since there's no accountability, the criteria for getting a ballot seem pretty silly, and I'm sure there are regional biases.  Meanwhile, the computer rankings have proven themselves very questionable this year, as many of them rely on an algorithm that puts far too much weight on a few games that a conference's teams play at the beginning of the year.

I think the best option available is an NCAA basketball-style selection committee of experts that spends a lot of time looking at this and then has to answer for its decisions.  Sure, there will be debates afterward, but that's inevitable no matter how you do it.

profitgoblue

December 5th, 2011 at 2:08 PM ^

It is ridiculous that the coaches poll counts towards the BSC ranking.  These guys, albeit extremely football intelligent, have absolutely no time to watch teams (other than opponents) play during the season.  They ALL talk about their 20-hour days during the season with pride (understandably so).  They are the consummate uninformed voter and should not have a say in the BCS rankings UNLESS they make a formal agreement to watch before voting.  If the BCS wants coaches involved, they should make it so that the schools hire a BCS representative that is charged with watching and reporting to the head coach for final determination (similar to staffers in a US Senator's office or a law clerk).

joeyb

December 5th, 2011 at 2:12 PM ^

I think most have GAs put it together and then they just sign it. I seem to remember a coach having a very awkward ballot a few years ago and he addressed it admitting he didn't actually look at the ballot in detail.

joeyb

December 5th, 2011 at 2:10 PM ^

I would suggest that the 1 and 2 seeds need to be the highest rated conference champions, not just the highest rated teams. Alabama needs to have penatly for not winning their conference. The only time that become an issue is when you have 5 or more teams in the top 6 that didn't win their conference championship. How often do you think that might happen? 

joeyb

December 7th, 2011 at 9:14 AM ^

I had not thought about it that way and that makes me like the thought even more. The consensus was that even if LSU lost, they were, at worst, #2 and still in the title game. If that was the case in Brian's system, LSU literally had nothing to play for except potentially facing an arguably better team in the semi-final. Adding in this provision adds an extra game, which is really something to be worried about.

Although, a conference without a championship game would be better off. Consider the Big 12 this year. Had OSU beat ISU, OSU would have clinched the conference before facing Oklahoma. A loss to a top 10 team might still not knock them out of second, but even if it did and Bama passed them, they would still get the 2 seed over Bama due to winning the conference championship. The voters would have had to place a 2-loss Oregon ahead of OSU in order to serve any real penalty to OSU. Because OSU's computer rankings were so high, the voters would have to drop them significantly to make that happen. That's the only real drawback that I see to this, which I don't even really see as a drawback.

SchembechlerDisciple

December 5th, 2011 at 2:23 PM ^

I wonder what the standard deviation across pollsters is within the Coachs Poll vs. the Press poll?  I found the rather large deviations in the coaches poll described here: http://detnews.com/article/20111205/SPORTS0203/112050397/Les-Miles--two-others-vote-Michigan-No.-8-in-coaches’-poll#ixzz1fgKKf1D9 both interesting and hilarious.

Sparty is so "Little Brother" even in their best years.  Tooooooooooooo bad. :(

Secretly in a super quiet whisper laugh:  HA AHAHAHHHAHH HHAAHA  AHHAHA HAHA!

Drbogue

December 5th, 2011 at 2:44 PM ^

Come on! This is the sport that marks the spot by eyeballing it, then brings out the chains to measure the eyeball.
<br>
<br>It deserves choosing a champion by subjectively choosing then objectively verifying.
<br>

Seth

December 5th, 2011 at 2:52 PM ^

Line up Michigan versus Kansas State's schedule: we are better.

  • Eastern Ky (KSU: 10-7): Michigan didn't play any team that bad. So let's throw the three quarters vs. Western Michigan here just so we go through the rest of these knowing Michigan has some points on the table okay? (ADV M)
  • Kent State (KSU: 37-0): Michigan blew out Eastern, which is better than Kent St (ADV M)
  • @ Miami (KSU 28-24): Michigan beat Ohio State by 6. (ADV M, stronger if you factor in the returned players thing)
  • Baylor (KSU 36-35): Michigan blew out Nebraska (ADV M)
  • Mizzou (KSU 24-17): Michigan beat 8-4 Notre Dame by 4. (ADV M)
  • @Texas Tech (KSU 41-34): Michigan blew out Northwestern, a better team than TT (ADV M)
  • @Kansas (KSU 59-21): Michigan put up just 58 on Minnesota, and shut them out (ADV M)
  • Oklahoma (KSU 17-58): Michigan lost to Iowa by 8 after 4 plays from 3 yard line, two of which were epic ref boners (ADV M)
  • @ Okie St (KSU 45-52): Michigan lost to Michigan State in a shitstorm. (ADV Kansas State)
  • Texas A&M (KSU 53-50): Michigan blew out Purdue (ADV M)
  • @ Texas (KSU 17-13): Michigan blew out Illinois (ADV M)
  • Iowa State (KSU 30-23): Michigan blew out SD State (ADV M)
What this tells us is that for Kansas State to be as good as Michigan this year they would have had to blow out Eastern Kentucky, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, A&M and Iowa State, shut out Kansas, and make the Oklahoma game close, against whatever credit you give them for the difference between Michigan State and Oklahome State minus the difference between Mizzou and Notre Dame.
 
The other way to line these up is to have all of our games ranked. Tell me if you'd move any of the following:
  1. Blowout win over the #17 team at home
  2. 1-point win over the #15 team at home
  3. 7-point LOSS to the #3 team on the road
  4. 4-point win over (#26) 8-4 team at home
  5. 6-point win over Ohio State at home
  6. 17-point win over a 6-6 team on the road
  7. 18-point win over a 6-6 team on the road
  8. 22-point win over a 6-6 team at home
  9. 4-point win over a 7-5 team on the road
  10. 7-point win over a 7-5 team at home
  11. 4-point win over a 6-6 team on the road
  12. 7-point win over a 6-6 team at home.
  13. 58-point win over a 3-9 team at home
  14. 38-point win over a 2-10 team at home
  15. 3-point win over a 6-6 team at home
  16. 21-point win over an 8-4 MWC team at home
  17. 7-point win over a 5-7 team on the road
  18. 14-point LOSS to the #23 team on the road
  19. 8-point LOSS to a 7-5 team on the road
  20. 24-point win over a 7-5 MAC team at home
  21. 28-point win over a 6-6 MAC team at home
  22. 37-point win over a 4-8 MAC team at home
  23. 41-point LOSS to the #11 team
  24. 3-point win over a 7-5 I-AA team at home
That is:
  1. MICH vs. (17) Nebraska
  2. KSU vs. (15) Baylor
  3. KSU vs. (3) Oklahoma State
  4. MICH vs. Notre Dame
  5. MICH vs. Ohio State
  6. MICH at Illinois
  7. MICH at Northwestern
  8. KSU at Texas
  9. MICH vs. Purdue
  10. KSU vs. Missouri
  11. KSU at Miami (FL)
  12. KSU vs. Iowa State
  13. MICH vs. Minnesota
  14. KSU at Kansas
  15. KSU vs. Texas A&M
  16. MICH vs. San Diego State
  17. KSU at Texas Tech
  18. MICH at (23) Michigan State
  19. MICH at Iowa
  20. MICH vs. Western Michigan
  21. MICH vs. Eastern Michigan
  22. KSU vs. Kent State
  23. KSU vs. (11) Oklahoma
  24. KSU vs. Eastern Kentucky
Add rankings (so lower number is better) it's Michigan 139, KSU 161. Michigan had the better year.
 
The Wildcats were 8-1 in games decided by 7 points or less. That screams fluky to me. Michigan meanwhile had convincing wins over middling BCS programs most weeks. We've got a much better best win, and the sum of our two close losses is at least equal to their one blowout, one close versus better teams.
 
Whatever credit you may give them for Oklahoma State being better than Michigan State, it doesn't overcome the fact that Michigan was handly beating our middling conference opponents while KSU was eking out strange circumstance wins versus theirs. And I haven't stressed this enough: last-minute 3-point win over an Ohio Valley Conference team that is just okay for an Ohio Valley Conference Team!!!
 
Michigan belongs above Kansas State. By association so does MSU.

mildsphincterz

December 5th, 2011 at 3:56 PM ^

I wonder if it would be possible to apply the BCS theory across different sports, particularly college basketball, and see what the formula would propose as the championship game.  I think if it could be applied to something like college basketball it would give an interesting comparison of real (playoff system) versus fantasy (BCS nonsense) champions. 

HeismanPose

December 5th, 2011 at 4:04 PM ^

The BCS's problems can be fixed in 3 steps, IMO:

1) Pull a "Lean On Me".

There are 120 teams in the FBS and around half of them have no shot at winning a National Championship. Ever. They don't bring in enough revenue, compete for recruits, or have the tradition of the "top tier" teams. We all know it's true. So since none of them will graduate anyway, they are all expurgated. They are dismissed. They are out of here, forever. I wish them well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SbkHgx6YIo

The FBS moves to five 14-team conferences. This is an easily obtainable goal. The SEC and ACC are there. The Pac 12 adds Boise and BYU. Big 10 adds Notre Dame and Rutgers. The Big 12 can add 4 of the remaining teams (Houston, SMU, Louisville, any of the Florida schools). Every other program moves to the FCS.

2) Mandate interconference games. Every team gets one FCS "warmup". The other 2 OOC games must be against FBS teams from a different conference. One home, one away.

3) 6 or 8 team playoff as Brian outlined. This will be made a lot easier because there will be a lot more data about realtive conference strength and individual team strength. Hell, I wouldn't even bother with the conference championships any more. They are unnecessary.