Garnett - Michigan in Top Two

One of my problems with the recruiting rankings it all seems to be based on potential and physcial ability.  Which player counts more points to a class?  A three star recruit who has a 90% chance of reaching their potential or a five star recruit that has a 30% chance?  On paper we all get excited about the 5 star recruit.  Yet the three star recruit is most likely going to be more useful to the team.

I really wish that the recruiting agencies made some kind of attempt to rate football IQ, even if it is understood it is going to have some error.  I would be happy with low, medium, high.  Then I could review classes and ask who has a solid class of "football" players and which program is just stocking up on super atheletes who are a little short on football skills.

I could always review the individual scouting reports.  But that is the entire point agencies generate a number in the first place.  Too much of it seems based on the physcial ability and not enough towards technique.  On paper we gush about William Campbell and Mike Hart is an afterthought.

A few more variables might give us a better way to compare classes and predict which ones will be more succesful.  I recall the great fanfare of the 93, 98 and 05 classes and all of them pretty much underperformed and in some cases bombed.  If we had looked behind the numbers we may have been able to predict that those classes had problems.

In summary it is nice to see that the ratings agencies give the class high marks so far.  But I take these numbers with a grain of salt because of the high variability.  It gives me a barameter of potential upside if all works out.  But what is the average expectation? 

The other factor with Dunn is that he would be a loss to Ohio. To the best of my knowledge, Ohio is not competing for Wright, Darboh, Garnett, McNamara, or Diggs. And Dunn has already verballed to Ohio. To pull a 4 star away from Ohio leaves more of a hole there. Also, given the treatment Kalis has received, if Dunn flips, he can expect the same, which would burn bridges.

Regardless, I trust Hoke and Mattison to recruit well, and finish well. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some equal talent they are recruiting out there of which we have no clue.

Noah Spence, a great DE, will probably not end up at PSU. Shaq Thompson is a top ranked safety prospect, still to make a commitment. Wes Brown is a great RB, arguably better than Dunn. Diamond and Banner are both solid OL prospects still on the board. Payton has fallen off the radar, but is still a solid WR. So is Madaris.

These are all still possibilities:

• TE:  McNamara
• OL:  Garnett, Diamond, Banner
• RB:  Dunn, Brown
• WR:  Diggs, Darboh, Payton, Madaris
• DE:  Spence
• CB:  Wright
• Safety: Thompson

These 13 potential recruits have the following Scout ratings:

• Seven 5-stars
• Five 4-stars
• One 3-star (McNamara)

I am confident that the coaching staff will review not only the depth we see on paper, but also the areas where we may technically have depth, but need more skill. While Mattison, Hoke, and Borges won't throw any current players under the bus, they will undoubtedly recruit to add more depth where the current skill level is . . . unsatisfactory.

With the exception of the OL RB, & WR prospects above, I would take anyone on the above list. I think we are at the point where we probably only have room for one more on the OL, one of the two RB prospects, and where we should take two at the most at WR. Unlike QB, or LB, we could easily take one more recruit in any of the above seven positions.

We know that we don't have room for all 13, and we know that some will wait until signing day to commit. But if the remaining recruits come from the above list, we can't really go wrong, can we?

We need to solidify our national recruiting a little bit more to account for Urban...

1. Animated photobomb with Mr. Long

2. Woman seductively caressing something that is a metaphor for Michigan recruiting

3. Wolverine eating a Cardinal (NOT CARDINALS)

4. Denard barely avoiding terminal velocity as he slows to kneel in the endzone

If Garnett's other finalist is Washington, I don't like our chances. It's one thing to politely include your hometown program on a list of 6 finalists. But when it's one of two, you raise expectations at home. He evidently loves the place, so why set it up for disappointment? Granted, Ohio kids sometimes pick M and Michigan kids sometimes pick Ohio. But these states produce more talent than one school can possibly sign. The UW area produces a limited number of five-stars. Garnett is a major source of pride there. I'm sure he's aware of this. And it's not as if he's Brionte Dunn, a kid caught betwixt and between new coaches, systems, etc.