BCS simplified (Take 2)
EDIT: First off, a lot of people are saying Michigan only needs to be in the top 18, but this is incorrect:
"if fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14"
By this rule, a Big 12 team gets chosen first.
So, Michigan needs to be in the top 14, end of story.
ESSENTIAL:
LSU over Georgia
OR
Southern Miss over Houston (houston will, most likely, drop below michigan if this happens.. It will also free up another BCS at large spot, so Michigan would still get an at large bid with a georgia win)
If both of these happen, Michigan is all but guaranteed in the BCS. If neither happens, michigan is 100% out.
IF only one happens, and Baylor jumps Michigan (which is a definite possibility if they beat Texas), Michigan will need more help to move from 15th to 14th in the form of:
- Ok state over Oklahoma
OR
- Iowa State over Kansas State
OR
- UCLA over Oregon
OR
- New Mexico over Boise
(also, Michigan jumping the B1G championship loser is a near-certainty, so i'm not too worried about the margin of victory in that game)
A Simplified (and only realistic) Rooting guide is:
- LSU
and one of:
- Texas over Baylor
OR
- Oklahoma State over Oklahoma
November 27th, 2011 at 9:23 PM ^
What if Clemson beats VT? No one is talking about that.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:24 PM ^
clemson wont jump michigan. The computers and voters hate the ACC.
I can't see va tech getting a BCS at large spot over michigan
November 27th, 2011 at 9:42 PM ^
Yes, Clemson cannot jump Michigan. But if Clemson wins, then they get the auto-bid, and we'd be competing instead against VT for the at-large.
For the record. I think this is pretty immaterial. Just root for LSU
November 27th, 2011 at 9:59 PM ^
Remember, the ACC has never gotten an at-large bid. They won't this year, either.
November 27th, 2011 at 10:04 PM ^
to have dropped like a brick below us. Hard to believe, but the #3 Coaches Poll Hokies HAVE NOT BEATEN A PRESENTLY RANKED TEAM ALL YEAR. Which shows in their 11-1 #10 computer rankings.
Of course, the voters would have had to be paying attention.
I would imagine that we would overtake an 11-2 VT in the computers. But no way in the humans. Unless Clemson absolutely annihilates/embarrasses VT AND the voters inspect VT's resume.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:24 PM ^
It was my understanding Boise Was out...
November 27th, 2011 at 9:27 PM ^
They almost definitely won't be selected, but they're ahead of us in the BCS standings, so a Boise State loss would be helpful in getting us into the top 14.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:25 PM ^
They are playing like crap right now. They didn't do "diddly-poo" last night.
November 27th, 2011 at 10:10 PM ^
DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT/TIME |
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Sat, Nov 26 |
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8:00 PM ET |
November 27th, 2011 at 11:16 PM ^
At least they took care of Appalachian State../s
November 27th, 2011 at 9:26 PM ^
With a Houston loss, would we most likley draw a SEC team IF we get in the Sugar?
November 27th, 2011 at 9:29 PM ^
The only two SEC teams that are allowed will be in the NC game.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:33 PM ^
So would we get the second Pac12 team, which would be Stanford?
November 27th, 2011 at 10:31 PM ^
I think the Fiesta will take Stanford. Should Houston lose, we might get Oklahoma if they stay in the top 14.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^
a conference can have 3 teams in the BCS only if 2 teams are in the NC game. Then 1 more (Arkansas?) would get in.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:40 PM ^
A conference can have 3 teams, its conference champ, and the #1 and #2 teams in the BCS. So if the SEC gets three it would be Georgia beating LSU, LSU staying in the top 2 with Alabama. Arkansas cannot go to BCS.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:41 PM ^
Arkansas has ZERO change of sniffing the BCS. Bama is a lock and from the way they talk LSU is also a lock no matter what. The only other sec team that can get in is Georgia if they upset LSU and then would get the auto bid as sec champ...other than that the sec will only get 2.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:42 PM ^
Only if neither team in the NC game was conference champion. Arkansas has no chance of getting in.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:53 PM ^
As was stated, the only way the SEC has three teams is if LSU and Alabama is the NC game despite Georgia upsetting LSU. In this scenario, we are screwed so it doesn't matter if Georgia went to the Sugar Bowl or not.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:30 PM ^
Not certain why everyone feels that Baylor beating a mediocre Texas team will allow them to jump us. Not sure I see that.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^
jump us with a win. This would not be good.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:36 PM ^
I don't see three loss team jumping us.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^
love Big 12 and Baylor probably jump Michigan on the strength of computer polls.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^
Even a win against Texas I don't think can move that much more ahead of us in the computers
November 27th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^
They don't need to move further ahead in the computers, they could jump us by closing the gap on the human polls.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:43 PM ^
November 27th, 2011 at 9:57 PM ^
Yup, totally agree
November 27th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^
do not care what the score is. So a blow out will only help in the human polls. Moo U beat us so that will factor in the human polls too. But I think we will jump Moo U and certainly Wisky.
Then it will be left up to a Michigan Man to get us in. Go Les Miles.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:31 PM ^
This isn't simple at all.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:33 PM ^
Im confused why would LSU over Georgia and then the B1G 'ship game result in us at 14?
November 27th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^
BTCG loser and Georgia both with 3 losses, moves us up to 14. Baylor stays below us with 3 current losses
November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^
exactly my point ... so then this really is simple, or I am missing something. We just need LSU to win, right?
November 27th, 2011 at 9:39 PM ^
That is exactly what I think. Go LSU/Miles
November 27th, 2011 at 9:36 PM ^
georgia (ranked 14th) drops below michigan.
Michigan state (13) or wisconsin (15) drops below michigan
November 27th, 2011 at 9:36 PM ^
We jump Georgia and the loser of the BTCG. Which would bring us from 16 to 14...
November 27th, 2011 at 9:38 PM ^
CRAP!!! I meant why wouldN'T not why would ... sorry for the confusion. I was wondering why I was getting some of the responses I was getting.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^
Wait a sec, if Michigan doesn't get in the top 14, isn't there still a chance we make it to a BCS bowl?
<br>If only, let's say, 9 of the top 14 teams are eligible for a BCS bowl because of the 2 per conference rule then wouldn't we be the next choice at #15?
November 27th, 2011 at 10:02 PM ^
No, a team must be in the top fourteen, that's a hard requirement.
November 27th, 2011 at 10:05 PM ^
At large teams must be in the top 14 of the BCS to qualify.
November 27th, 2011 at 10:08 PM ^
In that situation, if there are not enough eligible teams, it then falls to teams in the top 18. However, if there are enough eligible teams, those teams HAVE to get picked. So Boise State would get forced into a BCS bowl before they could take a #15 Michigan.
For there not to be enough eligible teams, there would have to be a total of 9 Big 12/SEC teams in the top 14. There will be 4 SEC teams (LSU, Bama, Arkansas, South Carolina) and 4 Big 12 teams at most. (Oklahoma, Ok. State, Kansas State, and Baylor). Two from each conference can't go to a bowl, leaving ten teams for ten BCS spots. I suppose if UCLA beats Oregon but Oregon stays in the top 14, or if Georgia beats LSU so bad they drop to 3rd... but those scenarios probably aren't possible.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^
Could somebody explain to me again why a 3-loss Baylor team beating Texas would cause them to jump us?
November 27th, 2011 at 10:22 PM ^
Baylor is already ahead of us in the computer polls which makes up 1/3 of the BCS. The human polls make up the other 2/3. A Baylor win could widen their lead in the computer polls and/or close the gap (or potential even put Baylor ahead) in the human polls with the combined impact being Baylor passes us.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^
I'm not convinced that a Georgia loss puts Michigan in the top 14. If it is, let's say, a 14-21 point victory I think Georgia may stay ahead of Michigan. As of right now it is a .10000 difference which equates to about 2 to 3 poll positions. Losing to LSU with a perfect 1.000 BCS rating is not like losing at all if its close. So for Michigan to go to crack the top 14 it needs to be a blow out.
November 27th, 2011 at 10:31 PM ^
Interesting take, folks are worried that a 3 loss Baylor team might pass us be beating #22 ranked Texas, but seem to be pretty sure that a 2 loss Georgia team would fall behind us by losing to #1.
November 27th, 2011 at 10:38 PM ^
Whenever a team loses, even if it is to the #1 team, they get dinged at least a couple spots in the polls. Alabama didn't stay at #2 when they lost to LSU, even though it was in OT. I think they went down to #4. Absent an overtime defeat, they should drop a couple spots in the human polls. We are basically even in the computers (one spot behind Georgia). As long as they drop past us in the human polls, we pass them overall.
November 28th, 2011 at 10:01 AM ^
Avatar thief!
November 27th, 2011 at 9:37 PM ^
Just read this from Mark Schlabach at ESPN.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=ncfnation&id=54347
The No. 15 Badgers play No. 13 Michigan State in the inaugural Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis on Saturday. The losing team figures to drop out of the top 14 of the BCS standings, which would leave the winner as the only Big Ten team ranked in the top 14.
THE IMPORTANT PART:
Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:45 PM ^
Wrong. This happens only if fewer than ten teams are eligible for BCS selection.
November 27th, 2011 at 9:52 PM ^
Tell that to ESPN...
November 27th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^
What!? ESPN incorrect with facts!? Unthinkable!
For what it's worth, Gorgeous is right. That provision only kicks in if the bowls can't find the required number of teams in the top 14.