Math Help for Big Ten Champ Odds for UM
So I've been been saying Big Ten title for 2 years now. I still feel good about that but have amended it to.. get to the Championship Game and have a punchers chance against Wisconsin. I can at least hedge that bet.
Stats was 20 years ago for me so I wanted enlist some help from you guys. I have the approximate odds Michigan can win each game moving forward as listed from Vegas. Can someone get me the odds on each win total. Odds of 8-0 I have at 2%. Can you guys get me the rest of the way? I say 6-2 gets us to Indy.
Minn 95%
Pur 80%
NW 60%
MSU 40%
Iowa 60%
Ill 50%
Neb 50%
OSU 65%
Thanks for yor help.
September 27th, 2011 at 10:15 AM ^
50% chance against Nebraska? I want some of whatever you're on. 65% against OSU is way high to me as well... you know they're getting the Tat 4 back right?
September 27th, 2011 at 10:19 AM ^
I think those odds came from Vegas, no? Even still, I can't believe Vegas would have that game as a pick-em. And then have the odds for MSU as 40%? Maybe the numbers are pre-season numbers?
September 27th, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^
I have a hard time believing those are actual odds. Not only Nebraska and PSU, but Iowa as a 60% win is questionable as well. if it were home, sure, but game's at Kinnick.
September 27th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^
Iowa is bad this year. I give us a better chance than that.
September 27th, 2011 at 10:50 AM ^
We may think Iowa is terrible and is 3-1 only because they got to exploit a Tony Gibson coached secondary, but right now, sportsbook.com has Iowa as a .5 favorite,which suggests something very close to 50% odds. Nebraska, btw, is an 8.5 point favorite.
September 27th, 2011 at 10:26 AM ^
Depending on which stats they are looking at, there isn't much seperation between MI & Neb. Points for and against show MI favorable. Add in that the game is in The Big House....
September 27th, 2011 at 11:16 AM ^
Aren't most of these numbers updated based on the betting that has taken place. Last year we were the number one team to not cover the spread. We have covered every game so far, so maybe better like our chances and have pushed the lines because they are beting for us to cover?
Edit: I very well could be wrong all together.TFWIW
September 27th, 2011 at 10:38 AM ^
Ohio might be getting 4/5ths of the tat5 back, but that one piece they are missing was pretty crucial. Many of those freshmen and sophs Michigan had to play early who got pounded by Ohio are now upperclassmen, and most are at least 2-year starters. The chronological factor will be enough to keep Michigan from getting pushed around this year.
We really don't know how good this team is against better competition, but at least it is back up to the experience level of a top-notch team. If Ohio's QB situation doesn't improve, they are not beating Michigan this year.
At the beginning of the year, I saw only two "auto-losses" on the schedule: ND and Nebraska. Now, I'm not so sure even Nebraska is an auto-loss. I want to see how they play against Sparty until I start Chicken Little-ing this season.
AFAIC, there isn't a team on the schedule they can't beat, and they should be favored in every game except Nebraska and maybe Iowa.
September 27th, 2011 at 10:56 AM ^
MSU+3
NW -3
Iowa -3
Ill Pick
Neb +1( I gave us 50%)
OSU -4
I know no one wants to give Mich any credit but we're only underdogs in 2 games MSU and Neb and Neb is basically a push.
You guys need to realize this league is not good. We can be the 2011 Tigers. Denard=Verlander
September 27th, 2011 at 11:31 AM ^
Denard plays offense and Verlander plays defense. I think you'd have to say Denard=Cabrera and Kovacs=Verlander. Now, we just need to figure out who our Martinez, Avila, and Fister are.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:19 PM ^
I would go Mike Martin as JV and Kovacs as Fisty Fist. Not sure who would be Martinez and Avila. If Nard Dawg can start hittting WRs we might well find out.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:46 PM ^
has possession of the ball when he's on the field. just like DR.
September 27th, 2011 at 10:16 AM ^
1 in 12
September 27th, 2011 at 10:19 AM ^
I think we will know more after this week. watching these 3 games will tell us how the big ten looks. NW vs Ill, MSU vs Ohio Technical Institure, NEB vs Winc.
September 27th, 2011 at 10:21 AM ^
0-8 .01%
1-7 .32%
2-6 2.75%
3-5 10.89%
4-4 23.68%
5-3 30%
6-2 22.11%
7-1 8.78%
8-0 1.45%
September 27th, 2011 at 10:32 AM ^
so about a 1 and 3 chance of going 6-2 or 7-1 (ethier of which I think would be enough to get us to indy this year) I don't think neb is all that good and can see all the rest of the teams in the division losing atleast 2
September 27th, 2011 at 11:07 AM ^
I'm really hoping that Northwestern and PSU figure out their QB problems (NU on October 9, PSU whenever), because if they turn out to be decent, Nebraska has no extra time to plan for us. They should lose a few games this year just based on not knowing anything in depth about the teams they play.
September 27th, 2011 at 10:36 AM ^
By my calculations (I didn't bother with the 3, 4, and 5 loss scenarios, because the combinatorics get too crazy for me to deal with unless I wrote a script to calculate it):
Undefeated - 1.78%
1 loss - 10.09%
2 loss - 23.75%
3-5 - I may do this later if I get a chance
6 loss - 2.29%
7 loss - 0.26%
8 loss - 0.01%
September 27th, 2011 at 12:20 PM ^
How about 3-5 Losses 63% haha
September 27th, 2011 at 12:52 PM ^
Wins | Prob |
0 | 0.01% |
1 | 0.27% |
2 | 2.17% |
3 | 9.26% |
4 | 21.36% |
5 | 29.82% |
6 | 24.36% |
7 | 10.75% |
8 | 2.00% |
I didn't bother calculating it, but this is a simulation.