Unverified Voracity Fits In Tight Windows
Borges in detail. I referenced this interview with Borges yesterday but I didn't actually listen to it. That turned out to be a mistake because in addition to the boilerplate about turnovers Borges said a couple of interesting things. Specifically about the shotgun percentage:
We’re going to be under center about half the time, and we’ll be in shotgun more than I’ve ever run before.
That's the baseline; it will be interesting to see how that breakdown moves as the season progresses. If the under center stuff is less effective (and Borges prefaced the above quote with a fairly ominous sentence or three about how different dropping back from under center is from taking a shotgun snap) how far is Borges willing to depart from the pro-style approach?
Meanwhile, I'm a bit leery about this:
So much of what they have done here in the past is based on Denard’s ability to run, and then he would pull up and then kind of pass underneath coverage and throw the ball down the seams. They killed people with that stuff. ... A big part of our game is running the intermediate cuts and being able to be precise coming out of the breaks and learning the timing and all that. In that regard, we are different than the last staff because, although they had those routes, we just use them more. It’s going to be a little transition for them, but like Denard, our receiving corps has been very receptive to the changes.
Michigan did do a fair amount of intermediate stuff last year but a lot of it was constraint stuff built around Denard's legs that was witheringly open. When coverage gets tight I can't help but think of the Michigan State game, when Denard threw two end-zone interceptions on plays that John Navarre would have made without blinking. (The first of those was just plain wide open; the second was a slant where there was a window for a pro QB that Denard missed badly on. At the time those seemed anomalous but by the end of the year his INT rate had sunk to the Jacobian depths.)
Offseason hype is at its usual fever pitch about the transition; Grady Brooks and etc etc etc.
They put in lights for a reason. Amidst a lot of talk about branding Dave Brandon drops this about the future of night games in Ann Arbor:
Night football is so popular right now. What's the future outlook there for Michigan?
DB: We've not committed to any more night football games until we get the experience of Sept. 10. We're going to see how this goes, execute this at a high level, have it be a safe, positive experience for our fans. If it's a good experience and we execute it well and it's overall a positive night for our community and for our fans and our players and coaches, my expectations would be we would try to do a night game at least once a year. I don't know that we would necessarily go much beyond that, but to have one a year in Michigan Stadium would be a great goal.
At least he's got the hang of the first person plural these days.
I'm in favor of the occasional night game because it might let me see the Red River Shootout once before I die and I hate missing the 3:30 window so much. Just maybe not so much with the "legacy throwback" uniforms that are neither throwbacks nor part of Michigan's legacy.
Be careful what you wish for. I googled Troy Smith's violations to see whether or not Ohio State was exposed to repeat violator status because of them*, and in the process I ran across this remarkable article from a couple Septembers ago:
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Maurice Clarett and Troy Smith for Ohio State. Reggie Bush and basketball's O.J. Mayo for USC.
As the Buckeyes and Trojans prepare to meet Saturday night, they do so with recent athletic success that also includes NCAA investigations of their brightest stars.
Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor is currently the biggest name on this national stage, and it's not unreasonable to wonder what might happen with the NCAA and the most high-profile football recruit of the last several years. The NCAA has already conducted an on-campus investigation of Pryor's recruitment to Ohio State, which resulted in two minor secondary NCAA violations.
It's time for Gene Smith to say something regrettable:
"I kind of look at them as the auditors," Smith said of the NCAA. "I welcome auditors because all they do is help us do a better job ourselves."
And time for Jim Tressel to one-up that like whoah:
"Especially as an administrator and as a head coach, you always want things evaluated," Tressel said. "Because if one of Gene Smith's coaches' isn't doing something right, he needs to know. So I don't think you ever worry about that as long as you don't have anything to worry about."
*[The verdict appears to be yes even though IIRC the NCAA only issued a secondary violation after Ohio State's thorough investigation only turned up the one guy who had taken a $500 handshake. The OSU response admits they are subject to repeat violator status but only addresses the old basketball allegations in its attempt to mitigate. Troy Smith does not come up.]
Windows. Yost will uncover them as part of the renovation; they were covered because direct sunlight was bad for ice back in the day. SCIENCE(!) has taken care of it. No word about returning the Old Man's head.
Meanwhile in chaos. The Super League has named itself the "National Collegiate Hockey Conference" because the nation consists of a smattering of Midwestern states and North Dakota. This is not a very good name but their first tweet…
First @TheNCHC tweet: "We are exciting to announce the formation of the National Collegiate Hockey Conference."
…implies that it sounds really cool in Japanese and just needs a better translator.
Also Western is so gone from the CCHA, yo:
"We've positioned ourselves, telling people the value in Western Michigan," said Beauregard, who has formed a "Why Western" campaign to sell the program to other universities and existing and potential conferences.
"We want to hear what they have to say." …
"We've had close conversations with Notre Dame," Beauregard said. "We want to follow them and be a part of what they end up doing."
Getting dragged along with ND because they're a convenient bus ride from South Bend is quite a break for a team that spent most of the last decade battling BGSU for last place in the CCHA.
Or maybe it's not a break since without Blashill the most logical landing spot for them is the cellar of the Badly Translated From Japanese Conference. Congratulations, you're Michigan Tech. If they stuck in the CCHA they'd instantly be in contention for an autobid; if they succeed in persuading the BTFJC they're worthy the next time they see the NCAA tournament the skies will be red with blood and Mel Gibson (only Mel Gibson) will have been raptured up.
The remaining CCHA teams have been trying to meet with the remnants of the WCHA, but the WCHA is trying to find room on its rolodex between "eject all tournament teams" and "blither aimlessly"; NMU would really like to hook up at some point in the future but will be washing its hair until 2013. Any day now we'll start hearing about Niagara and Robert Morris and etc.
Etc.: The Kalis stepfather call all podcasted and stuff. Pros and cons of this brave new world in hockey.
Since Brian always shouted "underclassman quarterback!" anytime someone suggested that just maybe Rich Rodriguez's offense might not have been the world's one force hot enough to melt the Arctic, shouldn't he be the first one to give Denard a chance to show he may be able to improve and start making those throws?
You know, since we've all been told for two years that quarterbacks can't be expected to do anything right until they are upper classmen.
Right. Even Drew Henson was mildly shitty as a true-sophomore QB. The next year he had about the best statistical year of any Michigan QB ever.
Henne was pretty crappy as a true sophomore (by far his worst year).
Navarre was ghastly as a RS freshman.
Dreisbach was pretty mediocre as a RS freshman.
The way I see it, Denard is ahead of the curve.
How many of those guys drastically changed systems after their second year? How many were predominantly succesful because of their legs?
It's silly to try to compare any of those guys to Denard.
Denard, sheerly throwing the ball, was vastly better than any of them at the same age.
Brian's doubts about Denard relate to his accuracy and his judgement. Accuracy is completely independent of scheme - the ability to put the ball where you want is independent of spread vs. west coast.
Decision making obviously is somewhat dependent on one's comfort level in the scheme, but, I'd argue, not completely.
Also, both Navarre and Henne switched OC's in their career.
I think you're being blinded by gaudy statistics if you think that Denard was a better pure passer last season than any of those "crappy" years from previous qbs.
All those other guys were born and bred to be prototypical pro-style qbs. Big tall guys, with big arms who could make all the passes as freshmen/sophomores, even if they were inconsitent. The only thing that Denard has in common with them, other than wearing the greatest helmet in history, is that he has a strong arm. Denard hasn't shown accuracy, hasn't shown the ability to throw with touch over the middle or the fade to the corner. He hasn't shown an ability to judge the deep pass. The ability to throw straight fastballs and hit wide open receivers are prerequisites to taking a snap in college. That was what he was good at, anything else was iffy to bad.
Accuracy in a theoretical sense is all about putting the ball where you want to. But in the real world, it's also about knowing where to put it. And to some degree, scheme does come into play. You won't be accurate if you're a half second late. You won't be accurate if you don't see the window. You won't be accurate if your timing with the receiver is just a little bit off. All those things are changing drastically on him, and not in any way remotely similar to Navarre and Henne getting new OCs.
Denard will certainly improve in all aspects. But we're delusional if we think he has any chance at replocating the upperclass years (besides Dreisbach, obviously) of any of those guys in a pure pro-style offense.
Between Harbaugh, Navarre, Henson, Dreisbach, Harbaugh, Grbac, and Leach, nobody had a completion percentage within 7 points of Robinson's at the same age. This comment:
Denard hasn't shown accuracy, hasn't shown the ability to throw with touch over the middle or the fade to the corner. He hasn't shown an ability to judge the deep pass.
Makes me wonder if you watched the above players. All Henne, Henson, and Navarre did at that age WAS throw fastballs.
I'm not trying to claim that Denard will become John Navarre or Chad Henne. I'm objecting to Brian using Denard's sophomore year performance and behaving as if that's what will be on the field this year, and year after. I used the above QB's as examples of how much players grew from the time they were 19 years old. I see no reason why Denard should be an exception to that rule.
Makes me wonder if you watched the above players. All Henne, Henson, and Navarre did at that age WAS throw fastballs.
Yeah, you're right. I must have dreamt the entire 2004 MSU game. You know, the one with a freshman Henne throwing all those gorgeous deep balls to Braylon and the corner fade for the game winning TD. It may have seemed like all they threw was fastballs, but usually it was because you were saying "man, if he had just taken a little off that throw maybe the receiver would have had a chance to catch it." They all could make all the throws, they didn't always properly judge when to use touch and when to fire it in there, but they each demonstrated the physical ability to do it. And that's where your comparison falters. Brian's concerned because Denard showed almost no aptitude to throw the types of passes that Borgess wants in an offense.
Denard will get better at it, with a much greater emphasis on those passes in practice. But his jump isn't going to be the mostly mental leap it was for any of the guys you listed.
Edit: And completion percentage is a piss poor measuring stick since none of those guys had the benefit of all the easy throws that padded Denard's passing statistics.
pewp in yer eye
He'll never be robo-Henne. But he also has other talents that make it easier on him. Trust me, no one was worried about Navarre scrambling. But I'm not behind the idea that he can never be a pretty good passer. Because I don't think ANY of those guys had the improvement from freshman to sophomore year that Denard had. He didn't look like he could throw AT ALL, and company line around here was Tate Tate Tate (and I thought the same). I won't believe he can't improve his accuracy until he proves me wrong again, in the opposite way. If he's throwing 40 times a game, it'll be a problem. But make more accurate reads going from a sophomore to a Junior? I would hope so. And I would hope he gets better as a senior too.
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<br>And as for 2nd year MSU Henne, I also remember him throwing a lot up and Braylon just treating MSU's secondary like his shoe-shine boy, just taking it away from everybody. If Denard had a go to receiver, and some guys who didn't all have cases of the dropsies, it would cover up a lot of his errors too.
He'll certainly get better, the problem is that he's got a much further way to go in a pro style system than any other young QB in recent Michigan history has had to go. The system he played in when accompanied by his running abilities made his passing stats what they were. That was my only point.
His other skills will certainly help, but that's the whole question, how will Borges' offense incorporate those skills? His scrambling ability isn't, afterall going to do much for Denard's ability to lay one in over the line backers but in front of the safeties, or hit a three step drop fade to the corner of the endzone.
As for Henne in his freshman year, yes, it was an advantage to have Braylon go up and get those deep balls, but there was also skill there in putting it where the safety was of no use and putting it perfectly where Braylon could go up and get it. And the rest of his passes in that comeback were magnificent, from the deep post to Braylon that didn't require the touch across the middle I was talking about but did require reading the defense and trusting that the lane was going to open up, to the perfect fade in the corner for the TD to the myriad of deep strikes along the sideline. Henne, like all those other young qbs certainly demonstrated the skills required to make all the throws a pro-style offense requires. Denard, as great as he is, has yet to demonstrate those same skills.
1) Henne just tossed it up to Braylon. Few of those jump balls were well thrown, let alone perfectly thrown.
2) Denard isn't going into a full Pro-style system. they will use elements of the pro style but still let him use his legs as a weapon.
3) the only reason Denard had so many WIDE open passes was because of the threat to run. If the coaches take that away, they are severly limiting his ability to throw and the offenses ability to be effective.
As the others said - Henne was tossing prayers to Braylon. When the best receiver in Michigan history left, Henne actually regressed significantly in his sophomore year - numbers bear this out.
You guys are greatly underestimating the skill in those passes. Yes, Braylon ultimately made the plays, but the ball was placed where Braylon could win a one on one jump ball, and that's not even the right term since the MSU defender didn't really even make a play on a couple of them. One pass was a bit off, where Braylon came back and jumped around a guy for the TD, one was on the back shoulder 50+ yards down field, and the third was absolutely perfectly placed just over the hands of the jumping DB. All told, a pretty fine display from the QB, even if Braylon made the catches look even finer.
Also, while I too recall Henne regressing sophomore year, the statistics do not in fact bear this out. In fact, his freshman, sophomore and senior statistics are all very similar.
Denard's accuracy: to say he hasn't shown any I think is incorrect. While it hasn't been the greatest, there were times where he put the ball on the money to a receiver on a slant - so good in fact that the receiver didn't even have to break stride.
I think the touch base over the middle and the fade are accurate criticisms. However, the good thing with those items is that they are something he can work on. It's hard to turn an average arm into a rocket arm - usually you either have it or you don't.
No one knows what the future holds for Denard with regards to how well he progresses as a passer. At the end of the 2009 season though, I would have never guessed that Denard would be as good a passer as he was in 2010. The good news is he seems like someone who is willing to put in the time, effort and work necessary to get better. How much better he gets is yet to be determined.
I was using a bit of hyperbole. If he hadn't been able to put the ball where he wanted to from time to time, he would have had no use as a QB, even given his running ability.
He'll definitely be putting in the time and effort. He's a great kid. I just worry that better accuracy often comes from extremely hard work on mechanics (see Tim Tebow after college), and with all the work he will have to do on the mental aspect adjusting to the new system, I'm not sure the time will be there to fix the problems.
I am hopeful that with hard work on the system improving what I'll call the "mental accuracy" component and Borges' ability to adjust his offense, he'll be accurate enough going forward.
Well, then, despite your initial criticism, we're saying the same thing.
I didn't mean to claim that Denard would become the throwing equivalent of Drew Henson. What I tried to show is that a number of all-conference QB's at Michigan have been mediocre to shitty players as sophomores.
Thus, Brian's desire to model an offense around a sophomore-year Denard Robinson, as if his development will remain in stasis for the next two years, when that never happens to anybody, is wrong.
We agree Denard will improve, and that the passer we saw last year is likely not the passer we'll see this year, and not in 2012, either. That is all I am saying,.
What I took issue with was the "Denard is ahead of the curve" sentiment expressed in your first post. He's not, and has much, much further to go to be a good qb in a pro-style system than any of those young qbs you mentioned, and that is a valid concern.
The hope is obviously that Denard either does make the leaps and bounds improvement necessary to run Borges' preferred offense or that Borges fits a system to utilize Denard's unique skills. I have more confidence in the latter.
Don't forget the defense. The defense also can't be expected to stop anybody until they're all seniors, preferably fifth-year.
I'm glad I listened to that podcast. That radio announcer had a really good take on the situation. You stick by your son's decision, regardless of whether it's a popular decision, and regardless of whether he's your biological son or your step son. You don't go on the radio and start questioning that decision.
yeah i agree and those radio guys did a great job in denouncing the step father for butting his ohio head in to the recruitment of Kyle.
I love science -- but would rather see it as magic.
Needs to incorporate the step tim tebow used to do. Tim would take one step and duck down like he was going to throw and freeze the defense for a pass. It is so fast and effective, I'm not sure why he never did it, especially with how much teams were looking for him to run.
"duck down like he was going to run"
Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't the two occasions that we had offensive surges against solid defenses (the two occasions that Brian & Co. use to back up their "see....see....the QB run based spread and shred does work against good Ds" assertion) when Denard was out and Tate was running more of a run and gun Hawaii method and NOT the "spread and shred?"
The play before the INT, Denard threw a bounce pass to a WIDE OPEN Odoms standing at the ~three. There was a defender behind Odoms, so he likely would have been tackled, but we would have been in a 1st-and-Goal within the three instead of the 3rd-and-9 on which DRob threw the INT.
As long he continues the success he had at SDSU, I'll be happy.
http://coachesbythenumbers.com/coach-profile/?coach=Al+Borges
35 Points Per Game. We won't lose many hanging up that many points.
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