REVISED "Veto-Based Aggregate Recruiting Rankings"

REVISED "Veto-Based Aggregate Recruiting Rankings"

Submitted by turd ferguson on June 19th, 2011 at 6:02 PM

Note:  I edited this since my original post to better utilize the ESPN data. Apologies if this makes some of the comments confusing.
 

Never having contributed anything of value to this site, I thought I’d take a shot at combining the Scout, Rivals, 247, and ESPN player rankings into one.  The goal is to come up with a straightforward way to compare elite recruits’ status with the ranking services (i.e. without forcing people to juggle rankings and star ratings from four different sites in their heads).

Aggregating across the sites is not easy, partly because of data availability and especially because of the different methods used by different sites.  There are countless ways to do this, with most requiring some kind of data imputation.  Since no data imputation strategy would be liked by all, I’m proposing a different method that requires no imputation.  Let’s call it the Veto-Based Aggregate Recruiting (V-BAR?) Rankings.  (Crappy name & acronym?  Check.)

The basic idea is that we restrict the rankings to players who appear in every site’s top X list (i.e. no one was unimpressed with the recruit) and then order them based on their average rankings across the sites.  It’s “veto-based” because any site can prevent a player from appearing on the aggregated list. 

I see two primary objections to this:
(1) It eliminates highly regarded prospects when only one outlier site is unsold on them.
(2) It gives excessive veto power to ESPN (and eliminates a lot of players) just because the ESPN 150 only ranks 150 prospects while the other services rank 247-300.

First, for (1).  This is just the design of this ranking.  Basically, to get on this list, there is consensus that you’re outstanding, and the average rankings tease apart just how highly you’re regarded.  Interestingly, for each recruiting service, one guy stands out, rankings-wise, as a glaring omission.  For Rivals, it’s Sheldon Day (#65 to Scout, #80 to 247, #144 to ESPN).  For Scout, it’s Amos Leggett (#104 to Rivals, #75 to 247, #95 to ESPN).  For 247, it’s Avery Young (#38 to Rivals, #13 to Scout, #119 to ESPN).  For ESPN, it’s Zeke Pike (#72 to Rivals, #33 to Scout, #18 to 247).  In general, though, there aren't too many really serious outliers.

Now for (2).  Giving ESPN excessive veto power seems problematic, especially since ESPN’s rankings are often questioned for their quality and objectivity.  Therefore, in addition to using the ESPN 150, I grabbed the next 150 players from ESPN’s recruiting rankings (link: http://espn.go.com/college-football/recruiting/prospects).  So we have rankings for 300 players from ESPN.

By my count, 147 players appear in Rivals’ top 250, Scout’s top 300, 247’s top 247, and ESPN’s top 300.  Here they are in order of average ranking across these four sites:

VETO-BASED AGGREGATE RECRUITING RANKINGS (as of 6/19/11)
(incorporates Rivals, Scout, 247, and ESPN)

RANK NAME AVG POS COLLEGE
1 Dorial Green-Beckham 2 WR  
2 Eddie Goldman 6 DT  
3 Mario Edwards 6.25 DE Florida State
4 Stefon Diggs 9.25 S  
5 D.J. Humphries 10.25 OT  
6 Arik Armstead 10.5 OT USC
7 Andrus Peat 11 OT  
7 John Theus 11 OT  
9 Johnathan Gray 11.5 RB Texas
10 Shaq Thompson 11.75 S  
11 Noah Spence 13.75 DE  
12 Gunner Kiel 14.25 QB  
13 Eddie Williams 18 S Alabama
14 Keith Marshall 18.25 RB  
15 Malcom Brown 22.75 DT Texas
16 Kyle Murphy 23.5 OT  
17 Rushel Shell 26.25 RB  
18 Jessamen Dunker 27.5 OT Florida
19 Jameis Winston 28.25 QB  
20 Ellis McCarthy 29 DT  
21 Darius Hamilton 29.25 DE  
22 Nelson Agholor 31.25 S  
23 Joshua Garnett 32.25 OG  
24 Cayleb Jones 39.25 WR Texas
24 Tracy Howard 39.25 CB  
26 Noor Davis 39.75 OLB Stanford
27 Geno Smith 40.25 CB  
28 Dante Fowler 41.75 DE Florida State
29 Yuri Wright 42 CB  
30 Shaq Roland 43.5 WR  
31 Chris Black 44 WR  
32 Landon Collins 45 S  
33 Aziz Shittu 47.5 DT  
33 Jordan Jenkins 47.5 DE  
35 Kennedy Estelle 47.75 OT Texas
36 Jonathan Taylor 48 DT Georgia
37 Ifeadi Odenigbo 48.75 OLB  
38 Kwon Alexander 49 OLB  
39 Jarron Jones 49.75 DT Penn State
40 Josh Harvey-Clemons 50.5 OLB  
40 Trey Williams 50.5 RB Texas A&M
42 Thomas Johnson 56.5 WR Texas
43 Jabari Ruffin 57.25 OLB USC
44 Ronald Darby 57.5 CB Notre Dame
45 Jordan Simmons 57.75 OG  
45 Kyle Kalis 57.75 OT Ohio State
47 Dominique Wheeler 59.25 WR  
48 Devin Fuller 60.75 QB  
49 Chris Casher 61.5 DE Florida State
50 Durron Neal 65 WR Oklahoma
51 Tommy Schutt 65.5 DT  
52 Eli Harold 71.25 OLB  
53 Channing Ward 73 DE  
54 Adolphus Washington 74.75 DE  
54 Barry Sanders 74.75 RB  
56 Ricky Parks 77.75 TE Auburn
57 Zach Banner 79.75 OT  
58 Connor Brewer 80.5 QB Texas
59 Avery Johnson 80.75 WR LSU
60 Tee Shepard 83.5 CB Notre Dame
61 Carlos Watkins 84.5 DT  
62 Jonathan Bullard 84.75 DE  
63 Alex Ross 86.5 RB Oklahoma
64 Quay Evans 87.5 DT  
65 Joel Caleb 89.5 WR  
66 Davonte Neal 91 WR  
67 Brock Stadnik 91.25 OT South Carolina
68 Torshiro Davis 93.75 OLB LSU
69 Travis Blanks 94.25 S Clemson
70 Erik Magnuson 96 OT Michigan
71 Zach Kline 96.25 QB California
72 Mario Pender 98 RB Florida State
73 T.J. Yeldon 98.5 RB Auburn
74 Brian Poole 99 CB Florida
75 Reggie Ragland 102.75 MLB Alabama
76 Jordan Diamond 103 OT  
77 LaDarrell McNeil 105.25 S  
78 Peter Jinkens 106 OLB Texas
79 Byron Marshall 108.25 RB  
80 Se'von Pittman 109.25 DE Michigan State
81 Germone Hopper 109.75 WR Clemson
82 Javonte Magee 110 DT  
83 Terry Richardson 110.75 CB Michigan
84 Tyriq McCord 111 DE  
85 Brian Nance 113.75 OLB  
86 Dan Voltz 115 OG Wisconsin
86 Kendall Sanders 115 CB Oklahoma State
88 Devonte Fields 115.75 DE TCU
88 Kent Taylor 115.75 TE  
90 Michael Starts 116.5 OG Texas Tech
91 Anthony Alford 117.25 QB  
92 Justin Shanks 118.75 DT  
93 Angelo Jean-Louis 119 WR Miami (FL)
94 Evan Boehm 122 C Missouri
95 Royce Jenkins-Stone 123.25 MLB Michigan
96 James Ross 123.5 MLB Michigan
97 Jordan Payton 124.25 WR USC
98 Derrick Woods 124.5 WR  
99 Elijah Shumate 124.75 S  
100 Brian Kimbrow 128.75 RB  
101 Sterling Shepard 129.25 WR Oklahoma
102 Matt Davis 131.25 QB Texas A&M
103 Brionte Dunn 131.75 RB Ohio State
104 Colin Thompson 133.75 TE Florida
105 P.J. Williams 134.5 S Florida State
106 Dwayne Stanford 134.75 WR  
107 Isaac Seumalo 135.5 OG  
107 Jaquay Williams 135.5 WR  
109 Bralon Addison 137 WR Texas A&M
110 Ronnie Stanley 140 OT  
111 Deon Bush 142.5 S  
111 Matt Jones 142.5 RB Florida
113 Kevon Seymour 143.75 CB  
114 Alex Carter 145.5 S Stanford
115 Dillon Lee 148 MLB Alabama
116 Lorenzo Phillips 149.5 OLB  
117 Jalen Cope-Fitzpatrick 152 TE  
118 Wayne Morgan 155.75 S  
119 Paul Thurston 159.5 OT  
119 Timothy Cole 159.5 OLB Texas
121 Scott Starr 160.75 MLB USC
122 Marcus Maye 162.75 S  
123 Cyrus Jones 165.25 RB  
124 Denzel Devall 165.75 DE  
125 Eugene Lewis 166.25 WR  
126 Leonard Floyd 166.75 DE Georgia
127 Justin Thomas 168.75 WR Alabama
128 Troy Hinds 170.75 DE  
129 Greg Garmon 172.25 RB  
130 Drae Bowles 173.25 WR  
130 Vince Biegel 173.25 OLB Wisconsin
132 Faith Ekakitie 173.5 DT  
132 J.J. Denman 173.5 OT Penn State
134 John Michael McGee 173.75 C  
135 Quanzell Lambert 178 MLB  
136 Patrick Miller 184 OT  
137 Orlando Thomas 185 CB Texas
138 Camren Williams 185.25 OLB Penn State
139 Ken Ekanem 189.25 DE  
140 Ishmael Adams 191.5 CB  
141 Curtis Riser 192.5 OG Texas
141 Marvin Bracy 192.5 WR  
143 Joshua Perry 194.75 OLB Ohio State
144 Cyler Miles 204 QB Washington
145 Dalvon Stuckey 207.25 DT Florida State
146 Freddie Tagaloa 220.25 OT  
147 Jeremi Powell 229.5 OLB Florida


Feedback welcome.