Tempo-Free Offense and Defense Points-Per-Posession: Iowa

Tempo-Free Offense and Defense Points-Per-Posession: Iowa

Submitted by bigmc6000 on October 12th, 2010 at 5:54 PM

Last week I looked at UM's 2009 vs 2010 numbers and came up with some numbers that point to a Michigan loss, but I held out hope that the Michigan offense wouldn't suck like they did against Sparty last year - yeah...  So this week I'm just sticking to the numbers in hopes of reverse jinxing us into a win :)

This week I took it one step further and looked at all of Iowa's 2010 results, comparing them to their 2009 common opponent results (as best as you can -- PSU is nothing like the PSU from 2009 but it's the best you can do).

UM's numbers took a bit of a dip both offensively and defensively after the MSU debacle and we now have this for the D:

Points/Posession
UConn 1.11  
ND 1.41  
UMass 3.36  
BGSU 1.91  
IU 2.92  
MSU 3.10  
     
  All Opponents All DI - Opponents
Total 2.26 2.051

And this for the O:

Points/Posession
UConn 3.88  
ND 1.75  
UMass 4.20  
BGSU 5.73  
IU 3.50  
MSU 1.55  
  All Opponents All DI - Opponents
Total 3.28 2.97

Now for some scary numbers: Lets look at Iowa thus far. Their D:

Points/Posession
Eastern Ill 0.70  
Iowa State 0.58  
Arizona 1.30  
Ball State 0.00  
Penn State 0.23  
     
  All Opponents All DI - Opponents
Total 0.54 0.50

And their O:

Points/Posession
Easterm Ill 3.50  
Iowa State 3.18  
Arizona 1.62  
Ball State 4.09  
Penn State 1.70  
     
  All Opponents All DI - Opponents
Total 2.75 2.65

Ok so we already knew that Iowa has an absurd D but what about comparing both UM and IA to this point last year...

All Opps 2010 2009 % Improvement
UM D PPP 2.26 1.39 -63%
UM O PPP 3.28 2.99 10%
       
IA D PPP 0.54 0.95 43%
IA O PPP 2.75 1.95 41%

And for D-I Opps only:

All DI Opps 2010 2009 % Improvement
UM D PPP 2.05 1.59 -29%
UM O PPP 2.97 2.6 14%
       
IA D PPP 0.5 0.86 42%
IA O PPP 2.65 2.12 25%

So, compared to last year at this point our D is much worse, our O is a bit better and Iowa has made huge strides on both sides of the ball (pick-6's and special teams points aren't counted in this). With that in mind what happened last year against Iowa?

UM vs IA 2009* Expected Result % Difference
UM D 1.59 2 -21%
UM O 2.6 1.62 -60%
       
IA D 0.86 1.62 -47%
IA O 2.12 2 -6%

* means that I used the D-I only numbers

Well, pretty much only the Iowa O met their numbers for the season average while our D, O and Iowa's D took a big hit.

If we only look at UM 2010 vs 2009 we get a predicted score as such:

Based on UM Performance
2010 vs 2009
  vs All vs DI Only
UM 20 21
IA 38 34

Then if we look at only Iowa 2010 vs 2009 we get this:

Based on IA Performance
2010 vs 2009
  vs All vs DI Only
UM 10 12
IA 30 25

Basically everything spells doom.  Even if you put in a full 6-pt swing from the change of home venues, we're at best looking at 31-24 Iowa. Sadly, I'm going to go with the average of all four numbers and throw in a 3-point swing for home field advantage (not 6 as we're treating 2010 as a seperate entity) and I end up with UM 19 - IA 32. I'll do a bit of DO NOT PUNT rounding and IA's penchant for FGs for an official prediction of UM 21 - IA 30.

I'd do a full review of the MSU numbers but it's painful so the quick and dirty is the O took a 56% decrease in PPP (3.5 season avg vs 1.55 actual) and the D took a 69% decrease (1.84 season average vs 3.10 actual).

P.S. Dear Denard - please just run once your internal timer has gone off and prove the numbers horribly wrong!! :)

Tempo-Free Defense Points Per Posession Update: Includes Offense PPP as well

Tempo-Free Defense Points Per Posession Update: Includes Offense PPP as well

Submitted by bigmc6000 on October 7th, 2010 at 9:38 AM

Last week we saw Points Per Posession for the offense as a tempo free metric to see how good our O is. With that in mind I wanted to look at PPP for our defense. This is a little tough as the NCAA doesn't put it all together so you have to go back to each drive and pull in the drive numbers. So I went ahead and did that for 2010 so far and got this...

Opp: UConn Notre Dame UMass
Drive Yards Points Result Yards Points Result Yards Points Result
1 -9 0 Punt  71 7 Rush  TD  53 3 FG Good 
2 57 0 FG Miss  1 0 Int  3 0 Punt 
3 4 0 Punt  -1 0 Punt  67 7 Rush TD 
4 7 0 Punt  7 0 Punt  27 0 Punt 
5 48 3 FG Made  19 0 Punt  79 7 Rush TD 
6 77 7 Rush TD  22 0 Punt  19 0 Fumble 
7 57 0 Fumble  23 0 Int  -2 0 EOH 
8 49 0 TO on Downs  24 0 Punt  24 0 Punt 
9 42 0 TO on Downs  77 0 EOH  70 7 Rush TD 
10          53 7 Pass  TD  38 0 Int 
11          66 3 FG Made  26 7 Pass TD 
12          0 0 Int  25 6 Pass TD 
13          26 0 Punt          
14          25 0 Punt          
15          0 0 Punt          
16          91 7 Pass TD          
17          47 0 EOH          

 

Opp: BGSU Indiana
Drive Yards  Points  Result  Yards  Points  Result
1 5 0 Punt  77 7 Pass TD
2 7 0 Punt  5 0 Punt
3 6 0 Punt  23 0 Punt
4 64 7 Rush TD  99 7 Rush TD
5 71 7 Pass TD  54 0 Int
6 1 0 EOH  72 7 Pass TD
7 -20 0 Safety  34 0 Punt
8 22 0 Int  61 7 Rush TD
9 69 7 Rush TD  33 0 TO on Downs
10 8 0 Punt  50 0 TO on Downs
11 7 0 Punt  17 0 Punt
12 30 0 Int  80 7 Pass TD
13 2 0 EOH  8 0 EOH
14            
15            
16            
17            

Note that the items in italics were not counted as I decided they shouldn't be counted - a couple other EOH drives were counted because, at least to me, it seemed obvious the other team was definitely trying to score.

All that data chrunched in this:

  Points/Posession
UConn 1.11
ND 1.41
UMass 3.36
BGSU 1.91
IU 2.92
Total 2.17

Ok, so thus far our D is giving up just over 2 points/posession - hmm (and OMG, Thank God IU wasn't as efficient as UMass). That doesn't sound that good - rather than compare it to tOSU or MSU I thought I'd compare it to our 2009, since most of us have a pretty firm grasp on what we thought of that D (I'll update with the rest of the Big Ten next week but I don't have the time just yet). Also, for 2009 I used our first 4 and Delaware State.  Chart...

Opponent Western Notre Dame Eastern IU Delaware St
Drive Yards Points Result Yards Points Result Yards Points Result Yards Points Result Yards Points Result
1 6 0 Punt 69 0 FG Miss 8 0 Punt 80 7 Rush TD -1 0 Punt
2 12 0 Punt 8 0 Punt 49 3 FG Made 6 0 Punt 3 0 Punt
3 6 0 Punt 56 3 FG Made 79 7 Rush  TD -5 0 Punt 5 0 Punt
4 0 0 Int 76 7 Pass TD 8 0 Punt 67 7 Rush TD 2 0 Punt
5 0 0 Punt 69 7 Pass TD 8 0 Punt 23 0 Punt 7 0 Punt
6 -14 0 Punt 17 3 FG Good 36 7 Rush  TD 52 3 FG Made 14 0 Punt
7 5 0 Punt 6 0 Fumble -1 0 EOH 26 3 FG Made 14 0 Punt
8 54 0 FG Miss -1 0 Punt 5 0 Punt 8 0 Punt 4 0 Punt
9 80 0 TO on Downs 17 0 Punt 6 0 Punt 8 3 FG Made 14 3 FG Made
10 30 0 Int 80 7 Pass TD 4 0 Int 4 0 Punt 60 0 Punt
11 85 7 Pass TD 36 7 Rush TD 55 0 TO on Downs 72 3 FG Made 76 3 FG Made
12 46 0 Fumble 13 0 Punt -6 0 Fumble 52 0 FG Miss 31 0 Punt
13 3 0 EOH 27 0 EOH 35 0 Punt 85 7 Rush TD 3 0 Punt
14             0 0 Punt 3 -11 Punt      
15                   0 0 Int      
16                              
17                              
18                              
                               
  Drives Yards Points Drives Yards Points Drives Yards Points Drives Yards Points Drives Yards Points
Totals* 12 313 7 12 473 34 13 286 17 15 481 22 13 232 6

Again the italized EOH drives were not counted in the following:

  Points/Posession
Western 0.58
ND 2.83
Eastern 1.31
IU 1.47
DSU 0.46
Total 1.32

Ok, great, so now we know exactly much worse our D is this year than last year but we also played Sparty last year so let's see how that turned out...

  MSU
Drive Yards Points Result
1 4 0 Int
2 80 7 Rush TD
3 42 0 Punt
4 47 3 FG Made
5 29 0 Int
6 8 3 FG Made
7 70 7 Rush TD
8 12 0 Fumble
9 4 0 Punt
10 45 0 TO on Downs
11 7 0 Punt
12 -1 0 EOH
       
  Drives Yards Points
  11 347 20

And...

  Points/Posession
MSU 1.82
% Above 137%

So using that same Sparty 137% over achieving you end up with the D doing this...

  Points/Posession
MSU Prediction 2.91

Eeek!  So how many point are we looking at? Well, the average number of drives faced thus far in 2010 per game is 12 and the average number in 2009 was 13. Last year Sparty had 11 countable drives so I'll call that a wash compared to this year.  With that in mind where does that leave this years D vs Sparty?

Well - 2.91*11 = 32 points and if we give them another posession they get 35 points.

Summary - well, it looks like comparing this years data to last years data our D might be giving up another 14 points in this game but our O is also much better. The next natural step is to look at how MSU is performing this year compared to last and merge the two sets of data but, as I said, that's for another week as it's already Thursday and I've got work to do!

My prediction (knocking on wood, throwing salt over shoulder, every other non-jinxing thing you can think of) UM 38-MSU 35  (I think we'll get a 27 yard FG at some point along the way).

I welcome any suggestions/additions and I'll try to update this weekly and expand it to all of the Big Ten and just have summary data in the future so as not to make it too long.

Update: I've updated with the fixed numbers for the IU EOH TD and pushed the prediction to 38-35 - maybe that 27 yard FG will come at the end of the game?

 

Update 2:  For Mat - I've run the Offensive numbers comparing ourselves to last year and, in a word, NNNOOOO!!!!

 

Keeping UMass and DSU in the calc I ended up with our O only getting 57% of it's expected output (OUCH!) with about 1 posession more per game.  Even if we throw in that extra posession our expected offensive output is only 2.058 pts/posession leaving us at 25 points.  Of course 09 was bouyed by the DSU game pulling in over 5pts/possession so if we take that out that game you end up with an expected offensive output of 26 for 11 drives or 28 for 12 drives.

 

Basically, our O is going to have to do MUCH better against their D than they did last year if this is going to be a win because last years O didn't do squat (60% <= squat).

 

Also, something of note to give hope for this years O vs last years (even after accounting for drive efficiency) is the massive decrease in number of negative yardage drives (not just plays but entire drives!).

2009 negative yardage drives through 4 OOC + IU = 9

2010 negative yardage drives through 4 OOC + IU = 2.

 

I'm still sticking to my prediction but, hopefully, the UM O will do better against MSU than it did last year otherwise we're going to be hurting. 

In case you're curious our O, as mentioned in another diary, is at 3.614 PPP.  If Sparty is going to get the 35 points predicted above and we get 12 posessions we'll need 3.166PPP to get to 38 or 3.5PPP to get to 42 - both below our season average.

 

Again - knocks on wood, throws salt over shoulder, yada yada yada...