Effect of losing a PG (no, he's not pro yet)

Effect of losing a PG (no, he's not pro yet)

Submitted by tasnyder01 on May 1st, 2011 at 8:27 PM

First of all, this is not to proclaim that D-Mo WILL go pro, only to state what the effects MIGHT BE IF HE DOES.  This is an analytical approach to what next year might look like without D-Mo IF he chooses the NBA.

EFFECTS OF LOSING MARGINAL PGS

We all know the effects of losing average PGs.  We lost three two years ago (Merritt, Lee, and Grady) and our offense went down in flames.  Most noticably, our 3PT% went down.  Our team chemistry seemed to go down the toilet too.  So, three areas of effect: 3PT%, chemistry, and overall offense.

3PT%

Merritt was over 40% for his career, but shot only 51 3PTs.

Lee was at 36% his senior season, and shot 52 attempts that year.

The team total in 08-09 was 920 3PAs, and in 09-10: 760 3PAs.

 

Team clearly got fewer 3PAs the following year.  The team also went down in shooting percentage.  Correlation, but I believe this stems from causation.  We lost ~100 attempts, which were falling at a 37% clip.  That's about 100 points.  Those points could have been made up by higher averages from other players, but we went from 67 to 64 PPG.  That, over 33 games, makes 100 points of difference.  So, in all those close games, the team lost points by missing the above average 3 point shooting of the PGs.

 

Luckily, this doesn't really matter in terms of D-Mos RAW shooting numbers.  He doesn't shoot the three very well.  But, he does set up the 3 for others very well.

 

I'll be back next time to look at the other aspects.  (This took more time than I thought to write up...)

A look forward to Denard Next Year

A look forward to Denard Next Year

Submitted by tasnyder01 on November 22nd, 2010 at 5:06 PM

[please tell me if you think that these stats need to be manipulated better.  I’m still working on the ideas behind these concepts, and any ideas are welcome.  This is meant to be a look to his likely stats next year through stats and deduction.  I will continue to try and do this with other players and units as the off-season starts.  Any ideas for further analysis helps.]

Denard Robinson:

RUNNING GAME:

He’s already set the record for most rushing yards in a season, on a 6.8 yards/attempt average.  Let’s admit that he’s most likely not going to do that again, although I’d bet his average will stay around the same.  Because he’s a more athletic version of Pat White, I’ll use those stats to try and show what I think Denard will do on the ground.

Pat White had 197 attempts for 1335 yards at 6.8 YPC his junior year.  I would imagine that Denard would have about the same stats.  So, we’ll get a drop in yardage by about 100 yards, but this will be made up by his throwing stats I’d assume.

Other things to note:

  1. Denard still does not scramble very often.  Vince Young, Pat White, and others did this much more and were able to get a lot of yards of scrambles.  As Denard gets another year under his belt, I’d expect much more scrambling and bigger gains.  This will, of course, help open the passing lanes.
  2. Denard runs the iso and zone read a lot.  I don’t know how many times White ran it, or V. Young, but I think Denard has many more designed runs than any other QB has had.  This will most likely get cut down because of his injuries this year, Dee Hart coming in, and his passing game getting better.  With that being said, on to the…

PASSING GAME:


 (I wanted to take passing stats from players who are like Denard.  I believe these are the closest guys to him.)

THE LONG BALL:

As most of us know, Denard doesn't throw the long ball as well as we'd like him to.  He does not use much touch yet, and this is something that we can expect growth on in the off-season.  He throws the short passes decently, but without the deep ball threat he's still not 100% effective.  There have been great throws, but they are too few.  The long ball will be one development, but along with throwing the ball deep, we get a much higher chance of INTs.  Based on this, I wanted to try and predict Denard's INT totals for next year from other prolific running QBs.  Below are the stats and their significance.


Int thrown/100 passes by year in the league:

Player Freshman Soph Junior Senior
Vince Young N/A 4 3 N/A
Troy Smith 2.5 1.6 1.9 N/A
J. Russell N/A 2.7 2.9 2.3
D. Dixon N/A 2.8 4.3 1.5
C. Newton N/A N/A 3 N/A
P. White 4.3 3.8 1.8 2.5

Denard is at 4.3 INT/100 attempts

If you look at the stats you’ll see that Denard’s average is about where V. Young was in his sophomore year.  Young then made an impressive downswing of one less interception thrown every 100 passes.  However, when you look at the total averages there isn’t much of a jump from sophomore to junior year.  
Dixon’s stats are the ones which screw this up, so if you throw out that outlier you do get a decent jump in INT/100 passes.

WHAT THIS MEANS:
Assuming Dixon’s stats are a outlier, we can expect Denard to throw about 1 less interception per 100 attempts.  He’s going to have about 250 attempts this season so that’s 2.5 less interceptions next year.  Assuming he throws 300 passes, that’s 9 interceptions next year.  (Vince Young had 10 the season he won his Heisman.)

SUMMARY:

Denard should have around 1400 rushing yards at about 7 YPC.  I believe he will have less designed runs, but more sneaks.  He will also throw about 9 INTs next year, when I believe he'll have just shy of 300 attempts.


 

Thank you bloggers (and Mods)

Thank you bloggers (and Mods)

Submitted by tasnyder01 on November 11th, 2010 at 1:57 AM

I would like to throw out my thanks to ALL supporters of this blogging community (minus trolls).  You all make the day go by much better, and give me an excuse not to do HomeWork (College Kid speaking).  While my teachers and parents may hate you, I enjoy the things you all bring up (most of the time).  However, I would like to highlight a few people who have done exceptional jobs and thank them for all the work they have put into this blog.  Here goes.

Note: spellin is not to gud; sory.

  • BoyzindaPahokee: all the “every snap videos”
  • Mathlete: PAN metrics
  • Chris of Danger: Videos for Brian’s picture Pages
  • THE_KNOWLEDGE: visions from the future
  • Tim: press reports
  • TomVH: scouting
  • Misogopon: All the great articles
  • EnjoyLife: Fremau index
  • Communist Football: Commie ball stats
  • MonuMental: Wallpapers
  • JamieMac: Gambling advice
  • WolveInExile: BCS Standings
  • EnjoyLife: TOM recaps (and ST)
  • StuBob: ugly game of the week
  • Brian:  Nuf said

Depth Chart 2011: No Longer Decimated

Depth Chart 2011: No Longer Decimated

Submitted by tasnyder01 on November 8th, 2010 at 5:30 PM

[Ed-M: What are these numbers? Returning players on 2-deep? Next year's upperclassmen? Whatever: to the board with you]

edit:  fuck it, see below.  Much better stated.

EDIT 2:

I am sorry for not writing what I was using down.   I DERPed up.  I am doing this by Varsity letters earned by returning players

For paragraph 2 I will state this: for career back-ups I awarded a varsity letter only if they are an upper-classman.  This was to differentiate between a returning sophomore who only played (for example) 3 games and crap time, and who hasn't gotten enough lifting time in and a 5th year returning senior (who you could say would equal Banks I guess, so it's still off).  The thought was that a returning 5th year who was a career back-up would only get 1 vasity letter awarded beause they didn't do much in PT, but they did get scheme training, and weight training.

Team DL LB DB
Wisconsin 9 2 10
MSU 8 4 3
OSU 7 3 5
Iowa 5 4 8
Illinois 7 7 8
NW 9 4 9
PSU 9 5 6
IU 8 5 7
Purdue 7 6 9
Minn 11 7 3
UM 7* 4** 8
Averages 7.90*** 4.63 6.63

*We run a 3-3-5, not a 4-3.  Thus, we’re under a player here.
**For convenience I’m putting the Spur as a WLB, not an additional safety, for this metric.
*** based on the metric below, the average is 5.9 years of PT.

Complicated crap that you might not care about:

If you shift the numbers on DL to a three man front, it gets really complicated.  Whose production do you take out?  The other team's least or most experienced player?  I can't think of a metric for this other than AVG EXP/player/3 DL positions.  If you use that, the average EXP for DL is about 5.9 years. If anyone has any better ideas for this metric, tell me.

WHAT THIS MEANS:

You’ll see that our DL is more experienced than average (per player, not unit) while the rest of our D will be just around the normal experience level. In Fact, our secondary will be more experienced than the average BT secondary. This makes sense.

  • We lose 1 player in the secondary: Rogers.  Not much of a loss, but a significant loss when you think about PT.  Counter that with Woolfolk, a 5th year Senior taking Roger's place, and you don't lose any experience.
  • We don't lose any other players in the secondary; everyone comes back with experience
  • After such decimation for two years, we should have expected this.  It only makes sense that teams will tend back to the norm.

The fact that the DD argument will no longer be tenable next year (due to us having MORE!!! experience than an average BT team)  is a good thing.  While we can no longer cling to that as a legitimate excuse for RR, we can now bring up our expectations.

  • DD is no longer a valid excuse.  It's premise was that we lost experience; we now will have average experience.  If low PT was the reason for a poor defense, a middling PT/experience factor should give us a middle-of-the-pack defense.
  • Our D SHOULD be middle of the pack, based on the PT logic.  I've argued from day one that a middle of the pack D would give us a shot at the BT title and if our O is #1 (which it could be, but depends on TOM) a shot at the MNC.
  • We should shoot for the BT title next year.  If our offense continues taking the strides it has, and we stop this TOM BS our D should finally be good enough for this to be a goal.

LB Scrape/Contain and moar DEMENS!!!

LB Scrape/Contain and moar DEMENS!!!

Submitted by tasnyder01 on November 7th, 2010 at 4:42 PM

Table of contents:

I.  Basics of scraping/link to Brian’s thoughts
II. Mouton
III. Demens’ Pass D.
IV.  Demens scraping
V. Final thoughts

I. BASICS

[this is for people who might not know what scraping is or want another opinion.  If you understand scraping/contain feel free to move on]
On How UM has lost contain:
On how this can be fixed:

    For the second one notice how Kovaks tells Floyd to get up to the LOS and Floyd says “Yeah, I’m gonna F*#K this play up.”  He does, because he takes the outside shoulder of the lead blocker.  However, that is not enough; Demens also scrapes to the play.  In the first play Mouton doesn’t contain (even though Demens scrapes) and it gets a…TD.  [For a more full discussion see the links above.  Many much smarter people than I have well thought out ideas there.]

II. MOUTON

My belief is that a large amount of us here think Mouton might have issues playing with Demens because he had to play to tackle instead of play his assignment when Obi was in.  Well, playing to tackle instead of your assignment sure sounds like someone who will lose contain.   Also, see this. So, here's that nice little chart:

First Half: Mouton v. Iowa Run
What Who When Notes
Loss of Contain Mouton 2:25 Picture paged
Ditto Mouton 1:40 Cut-back
Scrape Mouton 2:15 Failed scrape
  • This is only one half, but it should become clear that Mouton has had trouble holding contain.  I’m sure someone could do a much better analysis on this, and I would applaud any such investigation.  However, with the data at hand, we’ve shown that Mouton is not that good at holding contain.  The small # of bad contain plays wouldn’t be an issue, except that Iowa got 35 yards on them! [after looking back, that’s not outstanding, but it is a first down each time.
     
  • This failure to contain is not a “who is around me” problem.  It is a fundamentals problem.  It doesn’t matter who is around you, you still need to know your fundamentals.  If Ray Lewis were playing Mouton would still need to tackle.  This is no different.  Contain is just something you need to do, regardless of who is around you.
     
  • There might be other issues about him playing with Demens instead of Obi, but I just can’t see any.  What most people have been saying is that Mouton plays to make the tackle instead of doing his job.  That sounds a lot like missing your contain assignment to me.


III. Demens Pass D:

Because this seemed to be the issue for Demens, I figured I’d make the anaylsis on his coverage.  This will be a combination of 2 things: Brian’s UFR on Iowa, and my Iowa  “Demens UFR”.

BRIAN'S UFR:

+1 for pass break-up. (4th play)
+.5 (12th play)
(no +/- but on this picture paged play Brian gives Demens credit)
+.5 (18th play)
+.5 (25th play)
-1 (38th play)
-1 (35th play)
+1 (37th play)
Total: +1.5  Not terribleWas this the thing that was holding him back?

My Iowa UFR:

+1 (4th play.  Blasts the receiver after the catch to break up the pass.)
+1 (The touchdown play at 3:05.  Knocks the TE down as Avery derps up.)
+1 (starts at 3:20.  Demens comes up on the bootleg.  Notices the RB blocking and gets on his horse.  Brian gave a +.5 but I believe that because Demens came in so fast, he knew exactly what his assignment was and played it fully.)
-1 (at 4:10).  Demens leaves his TE open, even tho the pass goes over his head.
-1 (at 6:39) Missed the RB/drop-down read coming out of the backfield late.
-1 (9:00) Bit on the PA.  He did this again on the next play, which was the same play-call.  I’m not sure if he’s just biting a lot or if it’s his job to do that?  Is this some new Defensive thing?
+1 (on that play where Avery missed the 3&8 tackle, which effectively ended the game) Demens was all over his guy when the pass happened.
Noticed that they put in Roh on a few downs at MLB.  I’m assuming this is to get more speed on the field against the pass.

+1 total.  Well, I'm more negative than Brian.  Told you.

Overall: nothing really bad here.  I don't believe this was what held him back.  He should be at least acceptable in pass D.  Dispell all rumors.

IV. DEMENS SCRAPING:


Based again, off of the multiple UFR from Iowa and previous games.
Iowa: +3 on scraping, although I’m a negative guy.
Penn State: +2 on scraping.

When I find a better way  to format, I’ll add in the plays too.  Still, this is at least decent, which is better than Obi was playing.  More analysis at bottom.

V. SCRAPE/CONTAIN FINAL THOUGHTS:
 

Demens is a good scraper.  Obi obviously wasn’t.  An upgrade in playing ability and potential for next year, when we will return a decent starter, instead of a player who would have had no experience.

Contain is a huge issue.  When Mouton lost contain he gave up a first down every time.  This is a momentum killer for a few, rather obvious reasons. 

  • 1.) It allows a first down on a third and ten draw.
  • 2.) it destroys team fatigue.
  • 3.) It just sucks.  Nuff said.


Can we fix this?  How long will GERG coach this and how long until it’s fixed?  I don’t know, but I’m sure the debate will continue.  Mouton and Obi were in the system for 3 years and they didn’t scrape/contain this year.  However, Demens is a RS Soph (3 years) and learned how to do it.  Contrary evidence=I don’t know.

What does this mean for next year? I don’t know.  Really.  It depends on the aforementioned “Can we fix this.”  I think we’ll be better because we’ll have Demens instead of Obi, but if Mouton outplayed the other guys, doesn’t that mean we regress in that department.  I’ll assume that Cam Gordon (who might take Mouton’s old spot?) is faster than Mouton which might help, but I really just don’t know.  Debate away.

The other thing that I’d notice about Demens is that he bites a lot.  Those PA are going to kill him.  Just wait, OSU and Wiscy are going to have fun with this.  Let’s hope he gets better by that time.

 

 


 

Ok, Denard time

Ok, Denard time

Submitted by tasnyder01 on October 29th, 2010 at 4:31 PM

I would first like to give thanks to jamiemac for giving me the idea of an O/U for this week with ....DENARD....

O/U:

  • Yards: 450
  • TDs: 3
  • Threads started with his name the week after this game: 10
  • INTs: 1

Oh, and I won't bet.  Class starts in 12 minutes, no time.

META: What is and isn't allowed to be posted

META: What is and isn't allowed to be posted

Submitted by tasnyder01 on October 27th, 2010 at 11:51 PM

Ok, I'll be the new guy to say it: WTF should I not post to get negged?  (as an aside I know at least one of you guys will neg me...)

In all honesty, and lacking all snarkiness, WHAT TYPES OF POSTS DON'T YOU GUYS WANT TO READ?  I'm tired of seeing new people getting negged from you guys who have a bazilion points beacuse they've written something that you just don't like because YOU'VE seen it posted a million times (keeping in mind that us new guys haven't).  I don't think I've presonally been negged for a post (this WILL be my first), but I have to ask this so that:

1.) I will know what not to post about

2.) You all can throw up this thread's link when us newbs fail instead of doing you SRSLY? Owl thing

3.) You can now legitamitly expect us new posters to know what NOT to post.  If you don't write it here then you have only yourself to blame.

/Rant at "the old guard" over.

Things to think about this week+small PSU preview

Things to think about this week+small PSU preview

Submitted by tasnyder01 on October 24th, 2010 at 11:34 PM

Preface: I’m bored. I have a lot of time on my hands. If there are ideas for future betterments please post them and I shall learn. The PSU thing is just a small preview to hold you over for the real PSU stuff.

Did you know: Nathaniel Joseph "Nate" Montana, born in 1989, is the second member of his family to be backup quarterback at Notre Dame (his father, Joe, played there from 1974-78)

Injuries:

  • Denard was injured for the 5th in 7 games. Someone’s gotta say it , say it , and say it some more...I’m not debating on his touches, but this is something to keep an eye on.
  • Molk:  Nothing new on him. He should be back.
  • Martin:  Ditto Molk
  • Shaw: Should be back this week.
  • Fitz is still questionable.  However, he is practicing.

Analysis:  the team should have 4/5 returning. Beware the false returns though (they occurred to Tate last year, and will hopefully occur to Tacopants). Often players come back to play, but play injured, and are incapable of fulfilling their duties.

PSU Injuries

  • Boldin: questionable
  • Bani Gbadyu: questionable
  • Gerald Hodges: questionable
  • Michael Mauti: Back
  • Eric Latimore: doubtful
  • Jack Crawford: doubtful

Analysis: They will be playing with lots of injuries. Really, not much to say here besides things like that. I also believe that I missed a few injuries to the OL, but I can’t find links.

Denard’s improvement on passing:

Big thing to watch for as games come. Denard’s passing currently is doing things like this. He’s still on pace for 1879 Rushing Yards and 2276 passing, however teams are starting to key in on his lack of a long range passing game.

They are doing the right thing: in two games he’s got 4 interceptions and only rushing 191 yards on 4.9 YPC. He had topped 191 in the ND (258) and Indiana (217) games so yes, that is slowing him down. Let’s see how well he does this week. It’s important because:

  1. We will know more about if he can throw it well enough to keep D’s honest.
  2. This is a big step to make us a BTC contender for next year; we need that deep ball threat.

Denard is already a proven runner. My goal for his passing stats at the end of this year would be:

  • One 35-yard completion each game (not including YAC). This would prove the kid can throw the ball downfield.
  • Completion percentage of 65-70% When defenses are keying on his running, the receivers are open and Denard puts up ludicrous completion rates. But his INs have gone way up recently. Hopefully a week off has settled him back down.
  • Less than 1 sack/game. This will mean that he's not taking all day thinking back there, and understands the routes better. Also, with his speed, this shouldn't be happening anyway.

Campbell’s move to OG

This week we will likely hear about how Campbell will/won’t be moved. RR said in a presser that it will be decided over the week. I haven’t read anything about it during the bye so I’d assume we’ll hear about it soon. This will again stir up a lot of debate. My take: We need the DL more than OL. Why?

  1. After Khoury’s showing, we have more depth at OL than at DL.
  2. We had more even before Khoury’s showing.
  3. Who would the back-ups at DL be for next year? Ash and Talbott, the planet and the stick. Both would be a huge step down from Martin. This position needs a real blue chip (*waves hand like Obi wan* at Jernigan: "You want to come.  Yes.")
  4. Even if Quinton Washington is moving to the "dark side," our DL needs bodies. This is a position where the 2-deep guys get a lot of playing time, and we're going to lose at least three (Banks, Patterson, Sagesse) at the end of the year, if not a crushing fourth (Martin). I, for one, am not yet ready to give up on having an upperclassman 5-star on the DL depth chart next year.

PSU/time to get happy

(you see what I did there? [Ed-M: Actually, no.])

PSU's Passing Game:

Penn State's offense truly is offensive.

  • 18.2 PPG gets them dead last in the Big Ten.
  • Boldin (or back-up) can not throw.  (209 YPG, 8th best after week 7.)
  • 8 INTs is second to ILL’s 9.
  • Royster averages 64 YPG.
  • Injuries to Boldin spell trouble for an already.  

After facing a gauntlet of capable upperclassman (Chappell, Cousins, Stanzi), our secondary gets to take a major breather against Penn State's three-headed fail. Michigan will face one of these guys:

  1. True freshman returning from injury who has been pretty bad all year
  2. Sophomore who lost job to above freshman
  3. Paul and Kathy McGloin run a flower business in Scranton, Pa. They are very proud of their son Matthew, a redshirt sophomore who walked on the Pennsylvania State football team and accomplished what neither high-profile recruit above him could: throw two touchdowns against the only secondary in the Big Ten that might be worse than Michigan's. Unfortunately Paul and Kathy could not make it to Minneapolis to see their son play. Such is the flower business.

Did you know: Former Michigan starting quarterback Nick Sheridan is the son of Miami Dolphins linebackers coach Bill Sheridan.

Moving on...

Martin was not Martin against Iowa, but he was Martin enough that he was cleared to play, which means his injury (thanks MSU cheap shot) could very well be all healed. With less to worry about from the passing game, expect Michigan to use a 4-man rush more often, allowing us to generate some...what's it called again? oh yes, pressure.

Pressure+freshman/backup/walk-on QB=int (see ND game).

PSU's Running Game.

Our run D has DEMENS!!!! I have written ad nauseam about this kid, suffice it so say our run D should be good (against the "TURRIBLE" that is PSU).

Here I'm hoping that the bye week will help Michigan as well, mostly so the freshmen can work on tackling, but also because it gives the coaching staff some time to make/solidify some roster moves (Demens practicing with the ones may convince Mouton he doesn't have to do everything by himself). Add the Bye Week Advantage and you get a better D. Add in Royster and Boldin/back-up and you get a good D. Add in Vinopal  (possible switch to starter)  [Edit: Cam is still the starter]  as the second white DB and you get a lot of questions, but hopefully more answers.

Prediction: we let up less than 350 against Penn State.  I know that sounds high, but I just see them getting yards somehow.

Offensive stuffs:

  • 1.) We have DENARD
  • 2.) They have INJURRRRRED

Not really much to say here. They lost their 2 DEs (who are questionable or doubtful).  They have a hodge-podge in their LBs that is about as bad as our secondary stuff.  We also have Shaw and Molk coming back.

The only interesting part will be what the new DEs do. I’m assuming you’ll see them just sit down on EVERY zone-read (Mid-line please!!!). Their scoring D is ranked 4th in the Big Ten, but #1 is Iowa and #2 in MSU (#3s and 5 are still on our schedule, of course). We gained 899 against those two teams combined.

The thing to take away is that we can score on them, but we need to convert (like we failed to do against Iowa and MSU.)  BUT WAIT. They are LAST in the Big Ten in red-zone D. You remember the Red Zone, where we lost the last two games with turnovers? Hope emerges. Also, hope that Hopkins gets playing time. I'm with Brian in that Smith's "just a guy" [Ed-M: albeit one who can run a killer route from the slot]. Hopefully this is the week that Michael "Don't call me Carlos Brown" Shaw and Stephan "Rhymes with Chiffon" Hopkins are the two for me after Iowa.

Prediction: 500+ yards of offense. 400 to Denard. Smith plays more than Hopkins and I cry inside.

Um...more Demens thoughts. (Now with improved formatting!)

Um...more Demens thoughts. (Now with improved formatting!)

Submitted by tasnyder01 on October 24th, 2010 at 3:48 PM

Preface: I am not Brian.  I am not Magnus.  I am not “dear lord baby Jesus”.  But, and I say this with great happiness, I am not Matt Millen either.  Seriously tho, If you don’t like what I  say please tell me why and discuss rationally.  Thank you.  I will appreciate all the tips on how to not D*^P up. (read: “DERP up”)  Also, I am negative by nature.  I like Demens, but will overly criticize him because of Jinx paranoia/trying not to be a homer in analysis.


Thoughts on Demens:
I. Why he wasn’t playing early in the year:
“[I want to know if the attorney general] is preparing "criminal negligence" charges against Gerg and Co for playing Ezeh over Demens ?”
-In_Rod_I_Trust (no offense to you there, I actually thought this a funny way to sum most thoughts.  Neg me if you don’t like the reference.)
While quotes like the one above were funny, everyone who thought GERG was stupid for not playing Demens needs to see this link
That sums up everything very well; no need to say more.

II. Whether he will help Mouton (and the D as a whole) this year:
My idea for this thread was partially started here.  It’s an interesting thread.  To analyze I want to :

  • 1.) Take a UFR chart from all games and make a differential between Ezeh and Demens playing, and how well Mouton does with Demens in.  (Before I even do this I will note that it will most likely be inconclusive.)
  • 2.) Make a wild-ass assumption based on my thoughts on Demens.
  • 3.) Wonder if there is really any better way to figure this out before Demens 2nd start.


1.) UFR CHARTING
I racked up from the data that says: My prediction was right! Inconclusive after limited PT.  Mouton is a combined +4.5 with Demens in.  His overall standing is at around +40-50.  (My maths is bad, and I did it in Da Head.)  This states to me that we don’t have enough information.  However, we will still make predictions because that’s what bored fans do.  I applaud this.  I do this.  I like this.
2.) ASSUMPTIONS AND PREDICTIONS
Demens really should make this D better.  For those who said that Mouton would not do as well with a LB who actually played (read: will continue to over-run plays when unnecessary now that Demens is in) here's Da Responze:
     a.) Demens>Obi.  Defense with Demen>D with Obi
     b.) No chemistry issues.  Why would there be?
     c.)  If in doubt return to "a.)"
3.) IS THERE A WAY TO MAKE THIS MORE RELIABLE?
Still wondering.  Failing. Getting mad at failing.  Moving on.

III. His strengths and weaknesses:
As has been well quoted on here: He is a run stuffer and not a pass protector.  However, as per my Diary about his Iowa game and my Thread about his previous games’ PT, I believe I can shed more light on the subject.  (No, I haven’t been stalking him on face book or tweeter….but can anyone give me the link?)

  • 1.) He is WAY better than Obi on the run D.  He hits holes, can actually read the plays, and will tackle.  Oh, I almost forgot….he doesn’t get pancaked.  Listen to the commentators laugh at Obi.  Then *cackle with knowing glee* when you never have to see this crap again
  • 2.) From my perspective he bites a lot.  I only played HS, but our team never bit like him.  My data says he bit 8 times. This is based of my UFR and not Brian’s.  I am not sure how much the average man bites, but I would suspect that the young, run-stuffer is biting more than most.
  • 3.) He is slow when guarding WRs.  But who the hell isn’t?  Like we’re saying with the whole defense, give him time to figure this crap out.  BUT….I don’t like him in zone.  Either he’s bad at zone or I suck at analyzing.  Me:Brian comparison comes to mind.  
     

IV. How he (and the D will look next year):
Insert: The_Knowledge.  Not working?!?!?! WTF?  Ok, here’s my idea.  Just Kidding.  Oh, you’re hopes weren’t up?


V. My prediction for the rest of the year/WTF does this all mean:
Based on my assumptions I believe we will end up a top 90 team in overall D. (#90 is USC at 402 YPG.)  This includes that we went against 5 bad teams, and includes the “TURRIBLE” that is PSU.  It is also aware of Illinois’ “Ill” offense.  It is also aware of OSU’s decent offense.  (Oh, and Wiscy….I like whiskey.)  However, we let up 388 against Iowa’s mediocre offense.  Part of that was based on TOP (which we slightly won).  Part of the TOP was how our O was slowed down.  I think our O will be slowed down, and we will have more TOP.  I think that our D will play better because Demens is better than Obi.  These two points should be obvious.  I also think that PSU and Purdon’t will give us a stats boost.  Possibly we hold Illinois…I just don’t know enough about them.  For better or worse, I’m predicting we jump in to the top 90 over the latter half of the season.