Week #9 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Minnesota

Week #9 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Minnesota

Submitted by Enjoy Life on October 31st, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Prediction for Minnesota: The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is Michigan 24 – Minnesota 19 with just a 61% Probable Win Expectation for Michigan. If Denard is able to play most of the game, I don't think it will be that close. Michigan's offense has been excellent (3.8 PPPo) against poor teams (AFA, UMass, Purdue, Illinois) but has really struggled (0.90 PPPo) against every good team (Alabama, ND, MSU, Nebraska). In 2011 this was not the case as M scored about the same versus poor teams (3.7 PPPo) but was much better (2.2 PPPo) against good teams  (ND, MSU, Nebraska, and Iowa). That said, Minnesota would be classified as a poor team (sorry Goldie).

imageFremeau Efficiency Index: Not much movement in the overall FEI or DFEI but the OFEI went from #40 to #56 (no surprise there). In the detailed chart below, GE represents the raw data for FEI before adjustments for opponents. M is ranked #34 in GE and overall FEI is #36. This seems about right since M has lost 3 of the 4 games to their highly ranked opponents.

The S&P Ratings (Also from Football Outsiders) is a play based analysis (rather than possession based) and M is ranked #12 overall, #16 in offense, and #16 in defense.

The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

imageNational Rankings: The rankings for offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.

FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan and their opponent ( Football Outsiders FEI ).

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imageimagePoints Per Possession: The offense has now struggled against ALL the good opponents. The TOs in the Nebraska game put the D at a significant disadvantage and the stats reflect that.

Cumulative PPPo is 2.4 for the offense and 1.5 for the defense. M finished 2011 outscoring opponents by almost a 2:1 margin with PPPo for offense of 2.9 and defense of 1.5. The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense with the number of possessions adjusted for "kneel downs" at the half or end-of-game (maximum deduction = 2).

Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).

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Week #8 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Nebraska

Week #8 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Nebraska

Submitted by Enjoy Life on October 25th, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Prediction for MSU: The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is Nebraska 27  – Michigan 24 with a 57% Probable Win Expectation for Nebraska. This difference is entirely the home field advantage. Basically a toss up and, like the Purdue and MSU games, FEI is wrong and Michigan wins the game 31 – 10. For whatever reason, FEI remains unimpressed with the Wolverines. As you can see  below, M is ranked better than Nebraska in every FEI category except offense.

imageFremeau Efficiency Index: Even though it was a low scoring and close victory, FEI rewarded Michigan and moved M from #47 to #36 because MSU is still ranked very high by FEI (#29 if you can believe that!). The S&P Ratings (Also from Football Outsiders) is a play based analysis (rather than possession based) and M is ranked #11 overall, #5 in offense, and #29 in defense.

The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

imageNational Rankings: The rankings for offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.

FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan and their opponent ( Football Outsiders FEI ).

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imageimagePoints Per Possession: The defense continues to excel. After those first two games, M is allowing just 9.8 points per game (13, 13, 13, 0, and 10).

Cumulative PPPo is 2.7 for the offense and 1.4 for the defense. M finished 2011 outscoring opponents by almost a 2:1 margin with PPPo for offense of 2.8 and defense of 1.4. The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense with the number of possessions adjusted for "kneel downs" at the half or end-of-game (maximum deduction = 2).

Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).

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Week #7 Statistics and FEI Prediction for MSU

Week #7 Statistics and FEI Prediction for MSU

Submitted by Enjoy Life on October 17th, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Prediction for MSU: The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is Michigan State 20 – Michigan 18 with a 56% Probable Win Expectation for Sparty? Basically a toss up but, like the Purdue game, FEI is wrong and Michigan wins the game 24 – 13. As you can see below, FEI has been really schizophrenic about M this year. M at #47 is the lowest ranked 4 win AQ team in FEI and MSU at #27 is the highest ranked 3 loss team in FEI.

imageFremeau Efficiency Index: Week #7 is significant because all remnants of preseason projected data is removed from the formulas and all data represents 2012 games only. In addition both offense and defense efficiency are now opponent-adjusted and are referenced as OFEI and DFEI (up until this point OE and DE were just raw numbers).

That said, WTF!!!

After a 45-0 drubbing of an admittedly weak Illinois team, FEI blasted the overall rating to #47 (from #24 last week) and pummeled the offense efficiency to #63 (from #40 last week). Defense efficiency improved to #27 (from #33 last week).

The S&P Ratings (Also from Football Outsiders) is a play based analysis (rather than possession based) and M is ranked #9 overall, #7 in offense, and #22 in defense.

The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

imageNational Rankings: The rankings for Week #7 offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.

FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan and their opponent ( Football Outsiders FEI ).

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Points Per Possession: The offense continued to rack up the points and the defense recorded their first shutout. Cumulative PPPo is 2.9 for the offense and 1.5 for the defense. M finished 2011 outscoring opponents by almost a 2:1 margin with PPPo for offense of 2.8 and defense of 1.4. The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense with the number of possessions adjusted for "kneel downs" at the half or end-of-game (maximum deduction = 2).imageimage

Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).

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Week #6 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Illinois

Week #6 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Illinois

Submitted by Enjoy Life on October 9th, 2012 at 1:06 PM

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Prediction for Illinois: The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is Michigan 34 – Illinois 6 with a 97% Probable Win Expectation for Michigan. This game is a complete mismatch in every category.

Fremeau Efficiency Index: After a large improvement for Michigan during the bye week, the overall FEI barely moved after the Purdue game. The offense efficiency also was basically unchanged while the defense efficiency improved significantly (from #48 to #33).

The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

imageNational Rankings: The rankings for Week #6 offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.

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FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan and their opponent ( Football Outsiders FEI ).

imageimagePoints Per Possession: The offense had their second best performance of the year and the defense had their best performance of the year.

The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense with the number of possessions adjusted for "kneel downs" at the half or end-of-game (maximum deduction = 2).

Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).

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Week #5 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Purdue

Week #5 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Purdue

Submitted by Enjoy Life on October 2nd, 2012 at 1:45 PM

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What The What?: The FEI computers were apparently very impressed with Ms bye week as we improved to a ranking of #23 (from #42 last week) and FBS mean wins jumped to 7.5 (it was just 5.8 last week)!? This appears to be the result of adjustments being made due to strength of schedule (SoS). Michigan's SoS is now #4.

Prediction for Purdue: The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is Purdue 24 – Michigan 16 with a 71% Probable Win Expectation for Purdue. FEI is wrong this week and Michigan lets Denard be Denard: Michigan 35 – Purdue 17.

Purdue is ranked #15 in the FEI and has a strength of schedule (SoS) of #43. As you can see from the detailed FEI chart below, M is ranked 39 positions better for SoS, 21 positions better for offense, and 4 positions better for defense versus Purdue. Purdue has beaten an FCS team (Eastern Kentucky), Eastern Michigan (#92 FEI), and Marshall (#87 FEI). M's tougher schedule is what makes the difference in this game.

Fremeau Efficiency Index: The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

imageNational Rankings: The rankings for offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.

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FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan ( Football Outsiders FEI ). imageimagePoints Per Possession: The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense with the number of possessions adjusted for "kneel downs" at the half or end-of-game (maximum deduction = 2). The charts both indicate significant improvement in each subsequent game. Of course, this may be due in great measure to the fact that the opponent has been weaker in each subsequent game.

Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).

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Week #4 Statistics (Bye Week – No FEI Prediction)

Week #4 Statistics (Bye Week – No FEI Prediction)

Submitted by Enjoy Life on September 27th, 2012 at 1:47 PM

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Note: I've added the FEI rankings for offense and defense – these are currently  NOT adjusted and FEI waits until week #7 to have enough data to make adjustments to OE and DE.

Synopsis: The folks at FEI are predicting just a 6-6 season for Michigan (the same as last week before the loss to ND). However, this is not quite as bad as you might suspect because early in the season, FEI has universally pessimistic predictions. At the beginning of the year, FEI predicted ZERO teams to go undefeated and ZERO teams to have just one loss! Currently, FEI is still predicting that ZERO FBS teams will go undefeated. Only 2 FBS teams are predicted to have one loss (Florida State & Alabama). All others are predicted to have at least 2 losses.

Alabama (ranked #2 in FEI) is playing only 11 FBS games this year and FEI is predicting a 10.3 FBS win season. Florida State (ranked #1 in FEI) plays just 10 FBS games and is predicted by FEI to win 8.9 FBS.

Michigan is ranked #42 in the FEI. This is an improvement from last week even though we lost the game. This should not be entirely unexpected because the basic purpose of any ranking system is to better reflect the relative strength of a team by making adjustments to the raw win/loss data. In the FEI, the GE (Game Efficiency) represents the raw data before adjustments. M is ranked #60 for GE and after adjustments is ranked #42 for FEI.

Last year after Week#4, M was ranked #10 in the FEI with 10.3 predicted wins.

Fremeau Efficiency Index: The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams. (This is why M was ranked relatively high after that loss to Alabama, actually fell 13 places after the blowout of UMass, and improved 4 places after a loss to ND.)

imageNational Rankings: The rankings for offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.

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FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan ( Football Outsiders FEI ). FEI is predicting a 6-6 season for the Wolverines (FBS Mean Wins = 6.0). Like most predictive tools, the FEI is less reliable at the beginning of the year because there is so little data.

imageimagePoints Per Possession: The defense played very well and allowed just 1.3 PPP. The offense also played well but the TOs just were too much to overcome. M lost almost 14 points due to their TOs. The overall average for offense points per possession is 2.5 and for defense points per possession is 2.0. The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense with the number of possessions adjusted for "kneel downs" at the half or end-of-game (maximum deduction = 2).

Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).

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Week #3 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Notre Dame

Week #3 Statistics and FEI Prediction for Notre Dame

Submitted by Enjoy Life on September 18th, 2012 at 4:25 PM

imageSynopsis: Michigan is ranked #49 in the FEI. M is ranked #23 nationally in scoring offense and #59 in scoring defense.

The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is: Notre Dame 37 Michigan 14 with a 93% Probable Win Expectation for ND (yikes!). Notre Dame is ranked #6 in the FEI.

Fremeau Efficiency Index: The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams. (This is why M was ranked relatively high after that loss to Alabama and actually fell 13 places after the blowout of UMass.)

imageNational Rankings: The rankings for offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.

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FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan ( Football Outsiders FEI ). FEI is predicting a 6-6 season for the Wolverines (FBS Mean Wins = 5.8). Like most predictive tools, the FEI is less reliable at the beginning of the year because there is so little data. Last year after 3 games (WMU, ND, EMU), FEI had M ranked #19 and was predicting a 9 win season.

Points Per Possession: The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense. The charts both indicate significant improvement in each subsequent game. Of course, this may be due in great measure to the fact that the opponent has been weaker in each subsequent game.

imageimageUsing Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).

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Help Needed - Average MGoUser Activity

Help Needed - Average MGoUser Activity

Submitted by beenplumb on February 24th, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Hey everyone,

I’m interested in collecting some data on average user activity here on MGoBlog. I found myself wondering about how often I post here and how much of my work day is wasted clicking the banner atop the page and looking for a new ‘Hello’ post.

I thought this might make for an interesting case study, so I’m asking for some help from my fellow MGo-addicts. Simply follow this link to my Google Doc spreadsheet, enter your Username, your MGoPoint total, and how many years you’ve been active (be as exact as possible using decimal places to account for months). Columns D through G will automatically populate based on the numbers you input into B and C.

After the data is collected I’m going to do some basic analysis and will return some averages, standard deviations, and probably a cool chart or two, along with some other insights depending on what I find.

This will be my first (debatably) major contribution to the site, so your help is greatly appreciated!

Projecting Denard

Projecting Denard

Submitted by 1464 on December 1st, 2011 at 12:56 PM

Projecting Denard*

 

So we all know that Denard has been climbing the all-time leaders list in several categories here at Michigan.  I figured I would take the time to figure out exactly where he stands now, and where he projects to be by the end of his Michigan career.  I projected him to have 14 games left, erring on the side of pessimism (not including a B1G title game next year).  I then averaged his stats per game from his two years as a starter over 14 games and added them to his currently accumulated stats.

 

DENARD ROBINSON CAREER STATS (all-time Michigan ranking)

 

Pass YDs Pass TDs Rush YDs Rush TDs
Current 4,814 (8th) 38 (6th) 3,216 (11th) 35 (7th**)
Total (Projected) 7,406 (3rd) 56 (4th) 4,820 (2nd) 52 (2nd**)

 

 

 

 

ANY of those projected statistics would deem a player worthy of being suggested to be memorialized on a patch.  To have all four categories up there?  There will be a patch for players wearing 16, no questions asked. 

Curious what kind of a season it would take for Denard to take ownership of 1st place on each of the lists?

How about passing for 4,902 yards and 50 touchdowns while rushing for 1,825 yards and 21** touchdowns?  Does Denard have a shot at any of these categories?  He better have a damned good bowl game this year.  The rushing titles are attainable but unlikely.  We would need to recruit all of Tacopants' 8-foot-tall younger cousins*** this year in order for him to think about the passing records.

Breaking it down even further, Denard would have to average the following stat line for the next 14 games to overtake our current leaders:

351 / 4 / 131 / 1.5

 

* - Projecting Denard - also a great name for a crappy Ann Arbor garage band or a chick flick featuring Julia Stiles trying to court Taye Diggs (or equivalent).
** - Records prior to 1949 are not official.  If they were, Denard would project to 3rd all time in rushing TDs, well behind Willie Heston with 72.
*** - Raul, Ernesto, and Don Pablo Tacopants.