Alabama vs. Michigan 2012– Pt. 3 - A Geographic Analysis

Alabama vs. Michigan 2012– Pt. 3 - A Geographic Analysis

Submitted by Sextus Empiricus on July 12th, 2012 at 2:59 PM

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So far I’ve done two of these diaries looking at only the public rosters as posted by each school, free Rivals data and blogger based depth charts.  Pt1 looking at height/weight and Rivals rating by position.  Pt 2 looking at redshirting numbers.  In this diary I’m mainly breaking down the recruiting classes by where they come from and how far they travel to come to the respective schools. A quick review and I will get on with that…

The Tide is bigger in girth and number, more Rivally, redshirty and about as elderly class wise.  Their OTs are humongous. Our DEs are lithe and hopefully hard to lay hands on.  Can we out play their strengths?  Certainly we can.  I’m interested in fall camp.  The onus is on Michigan to execute and develop where expected and also early where otherwise RSing would be a good idea.

It’s frustrating given the early entry and success of Bama that they are so well off personnel-wise.  Saban recruits moves and manages rosters differently and/or repugnantly in my estimation.  I want to get into that but it’s just not the data or the focus of what I am doing here.  It’s worthy of a diary but it’s been done before.

OK… on to the data smash that I have…

Where these guys come from isn’t really as important as what kind of players they are.  But it’s interesting and speaks to who these guys are as well as where in the CFB world both schools are.  Enough “ares” let’s get on with this.

A variability chart of distance to campus compared team to team…excluding the walk-ons that are not on the 2-deep...that would be Kovacs (Alabama does not have any walk-ons in the 1s or 2s except kickers and long snappers.)

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Note to self - kids like to go to school near home in general. I would be interested to roll this up for all of College football. Especially in light or recent success by USC despite just deserved penalties.  I take that challenge but have limitations in time.

(EDIT: Zone Left points to an article by Andy Staples in the comments that has 2004-2008 data for Div 1 schools.  I rolled that up in the comments.  This was a good link.)

Michigan is more spread out and and in a Florida sense – bi-modal.  I highlighted the guys in the 2 deep above (they are slightly larger dots above…this shows up better in the distribution charts below where the two deep guys are darker.

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The differences here are not so great for the most part.  The distributions are the same in character but Michigan is clearly more spread out than Alabama in it’s recruiting territory.  The red brackets below the box plots are the shortest interval that contains half the data.  I think it’s interesting that despite being more spread out Michigan has a large contingent of close to home guys.  This is due to our proximity to Detroit I’m sure, but Bama is close to Birmingham – not Detroit but biggish. 

Overall CFB is a local sport which probably goes a long way in explaining it’s popularity.  It’s just another trait that makes this sport great.  Neither team here is recruiting on the national scale of USC or forward slash “S” Sparty .   

Here’s a US map with push pins of the known scholarship guys who signed LOIs plus Kovacs.  With a few exceptions (notably and significantly Florida) it’s a north south battle royale.

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Here’s a breakdown of guys on the roster by class to see Alabama’s trends given their National Championship runs and Michigan’s distribution given our recent coaching change.

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Michigan shows Pahokee nights and Detroit days, while there is only a small signal with Alabama of a wider recruiting stamp given the recent success.  

Here’s the same chart with all the crucible of recruited athletes that made up the current team.

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Comparing these two charts says to me Alabama did not haul in out of town talent who have since left.  This is a similar team in a geographic sense to the crucible of players that has made them.

If anything these charts showcase the regional expertise and interest of the coaching staff as well as the inherent location of the schools in general.  Alabama won their NCs with largely southern talent (with notable exceptions like Ingram) and will be an almost exclusive southern team come September.  Hoke as well is getting it done with more local kids.  Most of his guys from the west coast are kids he had a relationship with at SDSU. 

Michigan is a tale of two coaches with respect to recruiting… here’s a chart showing within class adjusted for redshirts.

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Here’s the 1000+ mile club for Michigan’s upperclassmen…RR guys.

Brandin Hawthorne
Brendan Gibbons
Craig Roh
Denard Robinson
Drew Dileo
Jeremy Gallon
Marvin Robinson
Mike Jones
Ricky Barnum
Stephen Hopkins
Taylor Lewan
Vincent Smith

Here’s the 1000+ guys from the lowerclassmen…Hoke guys except for Ash.

Erik Magnuson
Matt Wile
Richard Ash
Russell Bellomy
Sione Houma

Here’s the same distance to campus data with respect to position…

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Our TEs are home grown but otherwise we range fairly evenly across all positions (except kickers thanks to Wile and Gibbons.)  Bama is fairly constant as well by positions and relatively more local.  Here’s the same data for the walk ons.

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It surprised me that their walk-ons would be even slightly more traveled than Mich.  I don’t think that is significant though.  More interesting is the fact that they have LB walkons and we don’t.  I thought about that and decided to look at walk-ons by position to gauge their fit vs. team need.

This analysis by class includes current walk-ons which as I learned in doing these diaries can screw up your data when you are too lazy to go back and research who those guys are/were.  This is kind of where I left that off in the other diary. 

Alabama’s walk-ons are evenly spread by position (if you breakout DBs and safeties together.)  Michigan’s walk-on class complements the holes in the team roster.  I’m going to be interested in seeing if any special teamers are walk-on guys for Bama.  Here’s a distribution chart showing the breakdown of each team by position with the walk-ons highlighted. 

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Talking about walk-ons is a signal of the differences here in teams.  The Tide doesn’t need any walk-on help.  Mich does or at most will need Frosh to play.  There are perhaps reasons Bama has more walk-ons on the spring roster (it can pay to have played for the Tide in the long run for the sake of your heirs – I doubt we will see a Sons of Saban scholarship fund – who knows) but as we saw in Pt2 they had a large contingent of EEs show up and a couple significant JUCOs to make up for NFL and normal attrition.  The non EEs will show up in the fall and squash the Tides walk-ons when they cut to 105.  Michigan doesn't have that issue as seen in Pt 1.

This is about as much as you can tell from looking at the rosters. The sub-plots that underlie these bullets are discussion worthy but I do have a bunch of more odd/interesting takes from the Rivals/Roster mash.

Here’s the number of videos posted on Rivals per Star.

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I posted the summary analysis just because this is so off the wall.  What I was looking at was if the southern talent was treated differently by Rivals.  This shows a similar treatment if just in the number of videos posted per star.

HUGEtractsofland asked for a speed breakdown in Pt1.  Rivals data for 40 times is sparse but I pulled it and showed it.  Here it is again by position. 

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Here it is by roster…again this is sparse and fakey… just showing the available data in chart form.  We all know how fast the SEC is (/s).

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The breakdown does show a faster OL for Mich.  Again this is ridiculous stuff but I do think we have a good OL that is going to get undersold to Bamas NFL like talent.

Here’s BMI vs speed for both teams…

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You get the idea… Lewan and Schofield are Oregonesque in their proportion but perhaps they are more light of feet than the Tide’s OTs.

D. J. Fluker Runningback Jalston Fowler #45 of the Alabama Crimson Tide follows the block of lineman D. J. Fluker #76 during the fourth quarter past safety Luke Wollet #39 of the Kent State Golden Flashes on September 3, 2011 at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  Alabama defeated Kent State 48-7.    vs.  

76 or 77 – which do you think will go higher in the draft?

Enough said about rosters.  Ultimately this series of diaries shows that September can’t come soon enough.

OT: Named Rosters (and edited Michigan rosters) for NCAA 13

OT: Named Rosters (and edited Michigan rosters) for NCAA 13

Submitted by CollegeFootball13 on July 11th, 2012 at 12:16 PM

EDIT: I know I didn't make it clear in the title, but ALL TEAMS are named in my roster file. The only rosters that I actually changed ratings for was Michigan, however all teams are 100% named. Changed Title.

NOTE: This is for XBOX 360 only.

These aren't perfect, in fact they're probably far from it, but if you want rosters with all the names and some tweaking to Michigan's roster, feel free to download them from my EA Locker, my Gamertag is MaizenBlue13.

There were some minor edits (Denard's dreads), and some major ones (player ratings).

Again, they're not perfect, but they're something. If you have any advice on how to better rate the players, post your tweaks in this topic and we can try to get as close to perfect as possible.

How to Download:

Go to Team Management -> Roster Share -> Download Roster -> Download Roster -> and type in MaizenBlue13.

You might need to go to File Management and re-load the rosters once they're done being downloaded. Then go to Edit Rosters to look them over, and make any changes you deem necessary.

All Coach names should be in the game as well.

Enjoy.

Next year's NFL draft: any one on M roster a possible first rounder?

Next year's NFL draft: any one on M roster a possible first rounder?

Submitted by team126 on April 29th, 2012 at 7:01 AM

From TTB's scholarship count article, here is a list of M players eligible to be drafted next year (scholarship players only).

I see these players have potentials to be first rounder, provided they have a really good 2012-2013 season.

  • Roy Roundtree
  • Denard Robinson
  • William Campbell (!)
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint
  • Taylor Lewan

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Roster:

REDSHIRT SENIORS = 8 (Final season 2012)
WR Roy Roundtree
TE Brandon Moore
OG Ricky Barnum
OG Elliott Mealer
OG Patrick Omameh
LB Kenny Demens
CB J.T. Floyd
S Jordan Kovacs
 

SENIORS = 5 (Final season 2012)
QB Denard Robinson
RB Vincent Smith
DE Craig Roh
DT William Campbell
S Brandin Hawthorne

REDSHIRT JUNIORS = 9 (Final season 2013)
RB Fitzgerald Toussaint
WR Jeremy Gallon
OT Taylor Lewan
OT Michael Schofield
DT Quinton Washington
LB Cameron Gordon

Gameday Mini Program Rough Draft

Gameday Mini Program Rough Draft

Submitted by Lanyard Program on September 19th, 2011 at 2:24 PM

so, this developed out of trying to solve a few problems common to attending a game at the stadium (or watching at home) and grew into a sort of cheat sheet / mini program. i am looking for input about this, such as layout, content, info, ways to improve it, etc. i am willing to put these up each week if there is interest.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/65527987/sdsu-miniprogram

problem 1: in response to the larger, non-wallet friendly, ticket sizes, i have taken to using a clear press pass envelope on a lanyard to carry tickets into the game. sometimes these comes with ticket packages or bowl tickets(?). you can wear it around your neck, i choose to tie it around my belt loop and put it in my pocket.

problem 2: university programs are expensive, hard to handle in a tight stadium and get ruined laying on the ground, therefore, especially early in the season, i am often lacking some piece of information that would be really important just then; jersey number, eligibility, opponent info, etc. they used to give out those free ones, but i don't see them anymore.

solution: all vital info about michigan football printed on one sheet that can be folded to fit into the clear press pass or back pocket that is free.

click on link to view pdf

 

OT: OS NCAA 12 roster now live (ps3)

OT: OS NCAA 12 roster now live (ps3)

Submitted by TXWolverine44 on July 20th, 2011 at 3:58 PM
buckeye02 and gatorbait have finished the roster that they were working on. There is a thread over at operation sports which has the psn and the comments might have some things that were overlooked (granted it may not be michigan specific). And yes, buckeye02 took out pryor. Link? Link. http://www.operationsports.com/forums/ncaa-football-rosters/495827-buck… sorry if not a live link, posting from phone If anyone sees something that needs to be corrected on michigan's roster (rating edits, position switches, etc) please post here Psn: GatorNuts0208

Roster Report Card - Defense

Roster Report Card - Defense

Submitted by AC1997 on December 22nd, 2010 at 9:57 PM

Previously I did the offense, now for the scarier side of the ball.  I don’t recommend reading for at least 30 minutes after eating a meal. 

To repeat from the earlier post, this Diary is intended to be a “state of the roster” type of summary heading into the final recruiting stretch.   It is meant to be a diversion from coaching rumors, general recruiting chatter, or Miss St. preview posts.   Obviously all bets are off if a coaching change is made and this summary will change (hopefully for the better) when signing day rolls around.  In general,  I thought this would generate some good discussion and that’s what this website is all about.  Refer to Brian’s Depth Chart By Classfor a list of the relevant players.

Defensive Tackle – C+

This grade avoids being lower thanks to Mike Martin’s awesomeness.   He’s by far the best player on the defensive side of the ball and without him this grade would have been an F.  The problem is that there are so few people behind him.   If Michigan wanted to run a 4-3 they would slide VanBergen over to DT rather than trust the position to anyone else on the depth chart behind Martin.  Maybe Washington will turn out to be more than goal-life beef, maybe Ash lives up to some practice hype that’s been out there, or maybe Talbott surpasses low expectations.  But there is almost no depth and no one projects as anything close to all-big ten.   Since losing two recruits on signing day a couple of years ago and having Will Campbell prove ESPN to be right about his talents, this position has been a horror show.   This is the #1 priority in recruiting for years to come.

Defensive End – B-

Craig Roh still projects as an above average Big Ten player once he’s in his natural position and RVB is steady at the other spot (even if I’d rather see him in the middle of a 4-3 base defense).    Jibreel Black played a lot as a true-freshman and showed flashes of talent – he could match Roh’s potential.  Paskorz, Wilkins, Rock, and Beyer provide adequate depth without much star potential.   There is enough talent and depth here to be solid but unspectacular – hence the grade.

Linebacker – C

Sigh…..how long has it been since we had optimism with this position?  Demens looks like he will be a solid two-year starter with a chance to be above average.  But who else will start?  The roster is a weird collection of over-sized safeties and undersized linebackers.  Mike Jones and Brandon Herron have played but are still unknowns.  Fitzgerald and Leach have never shown the ability to play more than special teams.   Isiah Bell and Jake Ryan seem like MLB material, but have been invisible to practice buzz.  Kellen Jones and Desmond Morgan are very solid signings in this recruiting class but hopefully get a year of seasoning.  I expect Cam Gordon to essentially be a linebacker for this defense and don’t be surprised to see Thomas Gordon, Marvin Robinson, Josh Furman, or even Carvin Johnson play some too.  Depth is not an issue – talent and finding the right role for people are the issue.

Corner – C+

Are you surprised this isn’t a lower grade?  After a horrific series of events led to this position being a black hole for too long (8 players that would have had eligibility were unable to contribute in 2010 for various reasons), there is light at the end of the tunnel.  Floyd was erratic but returns as a veteran.  Avery saw extensive time long before he should have and that should help him develop into a solid starter.   Talbott got some time and could be a solid bench player.  (I’m considering Christian a Free Safety.)  Troy Woolfolk’s position for 2011 is unknown, but if it is corner he’ll bring valuable experience to let the young guys develop.  The current recruiting class may be “short” on stars but has a lot of depth to bolster the biggest weakness on the D. 

Strong Safety – C+

Kovacs is the sort of guy you love having on your team, but not really as a 4-year starter.  None the less, he’ll be his reliable but limited self next year.  Expect a push from Carvin Johnson or possibly Marvin Robinson or Josh Furman if they stick at this position.   Finding the right balance between brains and brawn at this position will be critical, and signing a blue-chip recruit would be spectacular.

Free Safety – D

The good news is that the people on the roster are young and have some experience.  The bad news is that there’s almost zero depth, the players on the roster have obvious limitations, and it isn’t clear if help is on the way.  I suppose Vinopal is your default starter with Cullen Christian the likely back-up.  I would like to see Woolfolk shore up this position for a year, but he might play corner instead.  Carvin Johnson might convert to this position, but he seems better suited for Strong Safety.  I fully expect one of the incoming recruits to move to this position, probably Brown or Crawford.  There is flexibility with some of these players, but this is a position where you want a savvy veteran who knows the position. 

Punter – B

Hagerup had some freshman moments, but overall was reliable when rushed into service.  Expect him only to improve and perhaps even challenge some of the Space Emperor’s milestones….okay, maybe not – but he’ll  be fine.

Punt Returner – D

As with the Kick Return position, there should be plenty of viable candidates who could do well but the results don’t prove that out.  Gallon was a mess for much of the year, Hemmingway offers little upside and is too injury prone, and hardly anyone else got a chance.  Expect Drew Dileo to get the first chance and he might prove to be valuable. 

 

A note on scheme for a moment….

I have no qualifications that let me comment intelligently on scheme or tactics, but I have common sense and 25 years of watching this team.  I think the 3-3-5 is a way to use scheme to confuse the offense when it is run correctly.  In that way it can help offset a lack of talent – but it requires the players to know it and run it well.  Given that Michigan’s D combines a lack of top talent with a dose of inexperience and a dash of lack-of-depth, this is not a recipe for success as we’ve seen.  I would much rather stick to a simple defense and run it well – living with the consequences. 

For that reason I would like to see a 4-3 base defense with Black-RVB-Martin-Roh as the line.  That seems to be a solid starting unit with a decent number of back-ups.  Demens and company can sort out the linebackers.  I would put Floyd and Avery at corner (and let the entire depth chart fight it out for those two starting spots), Kovacs at strong safety if he can hold off Johnson and Robinson, and then let Woolfolk be the free safety. 

Roster Report Card - Offense

Roster Report Card - Offense

Submitted by AC1997 on December 22nd, 2010 at 3:16 PM

This Diary is intended to be a “state of the roster”-type of summary heading into the final recruiting stretch. It is meant to be a diversion from coaching rumors, general recruiting chatter, or Miss St. preview posts. Obviously all bets are off if a coaching change is made and this summary will change (hopefully for the better) when signing day rolls around. In general, I thought this would generate some good discussion and that’s what this website is all about. Refer to Brian’s Depth Chart By Class for a list of the relevant players.

Offense goes first, defense wil come later.

Quarterback – A+

That’s right, I went there. I struggle to see how this position could be any better. Denard will be a Heisman candidate for the next two years, Tate has proven to be a very good backup quarterback and spot starter, and Devin will now be a freshman next year and one of the highest ranked dual-threat talents of the past three recruiting classes. I guess it would be nice to have a developmental prospect, but fourth string QBs grow on trees.

Running Back – B-

If Dee Hart stays in this class and meets his full potential maybe this grade is harsh. They certainly have depth and variety, which has not always been the case. But until someone steps forward as a homerun back and this group proves they can stay healthy, a higher grade is not warranted.

Outside Wide Receiver – B

Stonum, Hemmingway, and Odoms made for a very above average group of starters this year and all of them have had great games and will be among the best group of outside receivers in the conference for 2011. But they have all had injury issues and inconsistency issues so there isn’t a star here….yet. More concerning is the depth behind the veterans. Jackson and Stokes have played, but mostly on running downs. Robinson, Williamson, and Miller will all have tons of eligibility but are unknown quantities. Another recruit in the 2011 class would be nice.

Slot Receiver – A-

Roy Roundtree is a handful of drops away from being the next wearer of the #1 jersey [Ed-M: because dropsies stopped previous #1s?] and a future star. Kelvin Grady went from a liability to having some of the best hands on the team. Gallon and Robinson provide valuable depth. And Justice Hayes could be a future star at this position.

Tight End – C+

This is perhaps a little harsh because of the role they play in the offense. Webb has proven to be a dynamic blocker and Koger has the potential to be a very good receiver. The problem is that there is no one on the depth chart besides Brandon Moore. You may see Ricardo Miller take on the Koger role and it is expected that there will be another recruit in the 2011 class. But with fullbacks being walk-ons and the jumbo package making some valuable appearances in the playbook this year we’ll need to address this position in the next couple of recruiting classes.

Offensive Line – B+

Two starters will depart after this year and you have to give them credit for their development into solid performers this season. But without knocking their ability, they should be easily replaced. Mark Huyge has already been a starter and can step in right away with Schofield pushing for playing time. Schilling will be missed, but Barnum looks to be a solid replacement with Campbell and Mealer (plus the other centers) providing depth. Lewan and Omameh are still young and future NFL draft picks. Molk will be a senior but now has several viable back-ups in waiting. Signing another guard in this class with a lot of potential would push this to an A- for sure. Another star tackle is needed in the 2012 recruiting class.

Kicker – F

This is the biggest liability on the entire team now that there is at least depth (if not experience or talent) in the secondary. Gibbons looks like a mess with his form and results. Broekhuizen has better form but still lousy results. They don’t even have someone who can just kick it deep for kick-offs! Justin Meram from the soccer team is still wishful thinking for the time being since he has no proven track record and may go pro in his natural sport. I’m one who thinks a scholarship must go to a kicker in this class.

Kick Returner – C

This is a maddening position to grade. With all of the skill players on the roster you would think that this is a strength, but unless Stonum is the one taking the kicks there has been very little in the way of positive performance. Gallon, Robinson, and Odoms were highly underwhelming. Perhaps Dileo, Toussaint, Avery, or another young player could improve this. As great as Stonum is in this spot, his injury shows why you need to find someone else.

OT: The Tigers 2011 Roster...............

OT: The Tigers 2011 Roster...............

Submitted by Copey1050 on July 31st, 2010 at 5:18 AM

I was just thinking on what I would like to see as the Tigers roster next year - and trying to be realistic

Austin Jackson, cf

Carl Crawford, lf

Brennan Boesch, rf

Miguel Cabrera, 1b

Magglio Ordonez, dh

Johnny Perralta, ss

Brandon Inge, 3b

Alex Avila, c

Scott Sizemore, 2b

 

Bench:  John Buck, Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn, Ryan Streiby

Starters

Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Paul Maholm, Armando Galarraga

Bullpen

Jose Valverde, Phil Coke, Eddie Bonine, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Zach Miner, Joel Zumaya

 

Mod Edit: Pro Sports are "other" category............................................................