Rich Rodriguez

If you're reading this site, you're a true Michigan fan. The type that yells "Go Blue" at anyone with two legs and block M on her shirt.

Your commitment goes beyond packing the Big House on Saturdays each fall. You still remember how the sun set over the Rose Bowl in 1998 as Michigan beat Washington State to capture a national title.

Michigan football has rewarded your commitment by winning a lot of football games. The program has the most wins and best winning percentage among all college football programs. This success has been consistent, well, except for a recent 3 year stretch.

Data visualization can capture this rich history of Michigan football. This visual looks at the past 30 years. Michigan

The bottom panel shows how a computer algorithm viewed Michigan football each year. The Power Rank algorithm takes a team's margin of victory in each game and adjusts it for their schedule. It makes a difference whether a team plays in the Big Ten or MAC. Last year, Michigan was rated higher (26th) than Northern Illinois (44th) despite having a worse record.

The rating for each team gives an expected margin of victory against an average FBS team. The difference in ratings of two teams gives a predicted margin of victory on a neutral field. For example, Michigan was predicted to beat Michigan State by 5.7 points (including 3 points for a home game at the Big House) last season. Michigan won 12-10. While the visual shows year end ratings, the calculations from before bowl season have predicted 62.8% of bowl game winners over the last 11 years.

These insights into Michigan football jump out from the visual.

23 Years of Sustained Excellence

In 1984, sophomore QB Jim Harbaugh got hurt in the fifth game of the season. Bo didn't have a suitable replacement. Michigan struggled to 6-6 record, finishing 36th in The Power Rank.

For the next 23 years, Michigan football never finished out of the top 25 of the rankings. The teams coached by Bo Schembechler, Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr showed remarkable consistency.

The Rich Rodriguez Years

This consistency came to an abrupt halt when Carr retired and Rich Rodriguez took over as coach. The dip in rating over these 3 years looks like the Grand Canyon compared with Michigan's results on both sides of this era. Rodriguez's teams won more games as the offense picked up his spread scheme. However, the poor defense kept team rating negative during those 3 years.

Michigan had a terrible time with turnovers under Rodriguez. Turnover margin in football is like flipping a coin. The randomness implies that a team with poor turnover margin should do better the following season. However, regression to the mean does not rescue every team. Rodriguez's teams had a consistently terrible turnover margin, with 10, 12, and 10 more giveaways than takeaways in his 3 years.

Boring wins football games

Lloyd Carr did not play the most exciting brand of football. Run, run, pass on offense. Very predictable and boring.

But Lloyd Carr won 122 football games in his 13 years as head coach. He claimed 5 Big Ten titles and a national championship in 1997.

How did he do it? Craig Ross, author of The Obscene Diaries of a Michigan Fan, told me that Carr attempted to "minimize the vagaries of talent and injuries". He probably had turnovers on his mind as well.

To a mathematician like myself, this quote means he understood randomness and tried to minimize its impact on his team. The calculated ratings from 1995 to 2007 show the consistent results from this philosophy. Similar to the San Antonio Spurs of the NBA, Carr put his team in position to win every year. He broke through with a national championship in 1997. Who cares that the algorithm thinks the Big Ten had a down year?

And for anyone who doubts boring wins football, just remember what happened when the exciting spread offense showed up after Carr retired.

The hidden strength of 2005 team

The remarkable 23 years in the top 25 of the rankings includes 2005. Most fans will not remember the 7-5 season fondly, but Michigan finished 10th in The Power Rank.

How can a team with 5 losses get ranked so highly? The Power Rank considers margin of victory and strength of schedule in ranking teams. A team gets credit for staying close with good teams. In 2005, Michigan lost by 4 points to 3rd ranked Ohio State, 7 points to 6th ranked Notre Dame, and 3 points to 19th ranked Wisconsin.

The 2005 team was much better than their record indicated. The Power Rank rated them two touchdowns better than the average FBS team. The core of Jake Long, Chad Henne and Mario Manningham along with a healthy Mike Hart would lead Michigan to an 11-0 start the following year.

Bo's best team was in 1988

Of the last 7 years of Bo Schembechler's coaching tenure, which team was the beat? The 1985 team that beat Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl? Or the 1986 team that finished with 11 wins?

Actually, the ranking algorithm gives a slight edge to the 1988 team. Michigan opened the season with a 2 point loss at Notre Dame. The following week, the Wolverines lost an agonizing 1 point game to Miami when the Hurricanes recovered an onside kick to set up a winning field goal. However, The Power Rank considers margin of victory and strength of schedule in rankings teams. Miami and Notre Dame would finish the season 1st and 2nd (Notre Dame won the national title with an undefeated season).

Michigan went on beat USC in the Rose Bowl and finish 4th in the rankings. The algorithm states they were a point and a half better than the 1985 team. However, the algorithm does not make any kind of definitive statement on the best team. To put this in perspective, the 1988 has a 53% chance of beating the 1985 team on a neutral field.

Get a free postcard of the Michigan visual

As Michigan enters the third year of the Brady Hoke era, the program appears to be climbing out of the Grand Canyon of the Rodriguez years. The Power Rank will continue to use analytics and visualization to break down the program in detail. For example, I apply the algorithm to yards per play to account for strength of schedule in ranking offense and defense.

The best way to keep up to date with this analysis is my free email newsletter. If you sign up, I'll send a postcard of the Michigan visual to you and the next biggest Michigan fan you know. To check it out, click here.

[Ed.: Bumped for awesome.]

For pathos purposes only.

Rodriguez: Trouble at Schembechler!

Assistant: Oh no - what kind of trouble?

Rodriguez: One on't zone reed gone owt askew on spreadshred.

Assistant: Pardon?

Rodriguez: One on't zone reed gone owt askew on spreadshred.

Assistant: I don't understand what you're saying.

Rodriguez: [slightly irritatedly and with exaggeratedly clear accent] One of the zone reads has gone out askew in the spread n’ shred.

Assistant: Well what on earth does that mean?

Rodriguez: I don't know – Mr. Magee just told me to come in here and say that there was trouble at Schembechler, that's all - I didn't expect a kind of Coaching Inquisition.

[JARRING CHORD]

[The door flies open and Cardinal David Brandon of Domino’s enters, flanked by two junior cardinals. Cardinal Rosenberg has goggles pushed over his forehead. Cardinal Fatcatalumnus is just Cardinal Fatcatalumnus]

Brandon: NOBODY expects the Coaching Inquisition! Our chief Replacement Candidate is Hoke...Hoke and Miles...Miles and Hoke.... Our two Replacement Candidates are Miles and Hoke...and Patterson.... Our three Replacement Candidates are Miles, Hoke, and Patterson...and an almost fanatical devotion to Harbaugh.... Our four...no... Amongst our Replacement Candidates.... Amongst our Replacement Candidatery...are such candidates as Miles, Hoke.... I'll come in again.

[The Cardinals exit]

Rodriguez: I didn't expect a kind of Coaching Inquisition.

[JARRING CHORD]

[The cardinals burst in]

Brandon: NOBODY expects the Coaching Inquisition! Amongst our Replacement Candidatery are such diverse candidates as: Miles, Hoke, Patterson, an almost fanatical devotion to Harbaugh, and nice red uniforms - Oh damn!

[To Cardinal Rosenberg] I can't say it - you'll have to say it.

Rosenberg: What?

Brandon: You'll have to say the bit about 'Our chief Replacement Candidates are ...'

Rosenberg: [rather horrified]: I couldn't do that...

[Brandon bundles the cardinals outside again]

Rodriguez: I didn't expect a kind of Coaching Inquisition.

[JARRING CHORD]

[The cardinals enter]

Rosenberg: Er.... Nobody...um....

Brandon: Expects...

Rosenberg: Expects... Nobody expects the...um...the Coaching...um...

Brandon: Coaching Inquisition...

Rosenberg: I know, I know! Nobody expects the Coaching Inquisition. In fact, those who do expect -

Brandon: Our chief Replacement Candidates are...

Rosenberg: Our chief Replacement Candidates are...um...er...

Brandon: Hoke...

Rosenberg: Hoke and --

Brandon: Okay, stop. Stop. Stop there - stop there. Stop. Phew! Ah! ... our chief Replacement Candidates are Hoke...blah blah blah. Cardinal, read the charges.

Fatcatalumnus: You are hereby charged that you did on diverse dates commit heresy against the House of Bo. 'My old Michigan Man said follow the--'

Rosenberg: That's enough.

[To Rodriguez] Now, how do you plead?

Rodriguez: I’m innocent.

Brandon: Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!

[DIABOLICAL LAUGHTER]

Rosenberg: We'll soon change your mind about that!

[DIABOLICAL ACTING]

Brandon: Miles, Hoke, and a most fanatical -- [controls himself with a supreme effort] Ooooh! Now, Cardinal -- the MAJOR VIOLATIONS!

[Rosenberg produces a ONE-PAGE LIST OF NCAA MAJOR VIOLATIONS. Brandon looks at it and clenches his teeth in an effort not to lose control. He hums heavily to cover his anger]

Brandon: You....Right! Tie him down.

[Fatcatalumnus and Rosenberg make a pathetic attempt to tie Rodriguez to the sheet of NCAA Major Violations]

Brandon: Right! How do you plead?

Rodriguez: Innocent.

Brandon: Ha! Right! Cardinal, make the public [oh dear] make the public believe the violations.

[Rosenberg stands there awkwardly and shrugs his shoulders]

Rosenberg: I....

Brandon: [gritting his teeth] I know, I know you can't. I didn't want to say anything. I just wanted to try and ignore your crass mistake.

Rosenberg: I...

Brandon: It makes it all seem so stupid.

Rosenberg: Shall I...?

Brandon: No, just pretend for God's sake. Ha! Ha! Ha!

[Rosenberg pretends to publish the violations in the Free Press using a plastic coated dish rack as a printing press]

[Cut to them torturing Rodriguez]

Brandon: Now, Rodriguez -- you are accused of heresy on three counts -- heresy by Game Captains, heresy by Hick Accent, heresy by Not Understanding the Rivalry, and heresy by the Number One Jersey -- four counts. Do you confess?

Rodriguez: I don't understand what I'm accused of.

Brandon: Ha! Then we'll make you understand! Rosenberg! Fetch...THE INFLATABLE MICHIGAN MAN SEX DOLL!

[JARRING CHORD]

[Rosenberg holds out an INFLATABLE MICHIGAN MAN SEX DOLL]

Rosenberg: Here it is, Lord.

Brandon: Now, Rodriguez -- you have one last chance. Confess the heinous sin of Tiny Slot Ninjas, reject the works of Casteel -- two last chances. And you shall be free -- three last chances. You have three last chances, the nature of which I have divulged in my previous utterance.

Rodriguez: I don't know what you're talking about.

Brandon: Right! If that's the way you want it -- Cardinal! Poke him with the Inflatable Michigan Man Sex Doll!

[Rosenberg carries out this rather pathetic torture]

Brandon: Confess! Confess! Confess!

Rosenberg: It doesn't seem to be hurting him, Lord.

Brandon: Have you got all the air in the schlong?

Rosenberg: Yes, Lord.

Brandon [angrily hurling away the Inflatable Michigan Man Sex Doll]: Hmm! He is made of harder stuff! Cardinal Fatcatalumnus! Fetch...THE $2.5 MILLION BUYOUT!

[JARRING CHORD]

[Zoom into Fatcatalumnus's horrified face]

Fatcatalumnus [terrified]: The...$2.5 million buyout?

[Rosenberg pushes in a GIANT PILE OF MONEY]

Brandon: So you think you are strong because you can survive the Inflatable Michigan Man Sex Doll. Well, we shall see. Rosenberg! Put him in the Giant Pile of Money!

[They roughly push him into the Giant Pile of Money]

Brandon [with a cruel leer]: Now -- you will stay in the Giant Pile of Money until another coaching job opens up, with only a year-long break on ESPN as an analyst. [Aside, to Rosenberg] Is that really all it is?

Rosenberg: Yes, Lord.

Brandon: I see. I suppose we make it worse by shouting a lot, do we? Confess, man. Confess! Confess! Confess! Confess!

Rosenberg: I confess!

Brandon: Not you!

exeunt

 

 

[Ed.: Many excellent diaries of late that all but demand bumps. Larsonlo's Football Fundamentals 101 series is a must-read that will hit the front page at some point and the Mathlete's back, plus Misopogon is analyzing Cam Gordon in crushingly detailed fashion. Here's a quick one that hints at the QB duel winner.]

The quarterback is obviously the single most important position in Rich Rodriguez's offense, so I decided to take a look at some numbers from his time at West Virginia up until this past season at Michigan. What I found, while not exactly scientific, is pretty damn interesting.

Before I get to the summary, let's take a look at the charts... [ed: charts.]

West Virginia QB Charts

Year
Record
Player
Passing
Rushing
QB Rush%
Rush % Total
QB yds
Total Team
Offense Rush %
2001
3-8 (1-6)
Brad
Lewis
135/237
1,339yds
7TDs, 9INTs
54att,
41yds,
1 TD
18.6%
2.97%
52.4%
1,992 Rushing
1,811 Passing
2002
9-4 (6-1)
Rasheed
Marshall
139/259
1,616yds
9TDs, 5 INTs
173att,
666yds,
13 TDs
40.0%
29.2%
67.8%
3,687 Rushing
1,753 Passing
2003
8-5 (6-1)
Rasheed
Marshall
109/215
1,729yds
15 TDs, 8 INTs
101att,
303yds,
4 TDs
32.0%
14.9%
57.6%
2,762 Rushing
2,034 Passing
2004
8-4 (4-2)
Rasheed
Marshall
144/242
1,886yds
19 TDs, 9 INTs
169att,
861yds,
4 TDs
41.0%
31.3%
60.4%
3,034 Rushing
1,993 Passing
2005
11-1 (7-0)
Pat White
65/114
828yds
8 TDs, 5 INTs
131att,
952yds,
7 TDs
53.4%
53.5%
73.2%
3,269 Rushing
1,398 Passing
2006
11-2 (5-2)
Pat White
118/179
1,655yds
13 TDs, 7 INTs
165att,
1,219yds,
18 TDs
47.9%
42.4%
65.7%
3,939 Rushing
2,059 Passing
2007
11-2 (5-2)
Pat White
144/216
1,724yds
14 TDs, 4 INTs
197att,
1,335yds
14 TDs
47.7%
43.6%
65.1%
3,864 Rushing
2,067 Passing

Michigan QB Charts

Year
Record
Player
Passing
Rushing
QB Rush %
Rush % Total
QB yds
Total Team
Offense Rush %
2008
3-9 (2-6)
Steven
Sheridan
165/338
1,718yds
11 TDs, 12 INTs
118att,
293yds,
3 TDs
25.9%
14.6%
50.8%
1,771 Rushing
1,718 Passing
2009
5-7 (1-7)
Denard
Forcier
179/312
2,233yds
15 TDs, 14 INTs
187att,
591yds,
8 TDs
37.5%
21.0%
48.4%
2,234 Rushing
2,380 Passing
 
In Rodriguez's career at West Virginia there was a striking correlation between the amount of the quarterback's total yards came from rushing and the success of the team. When you sort by this statistic, from 2001-2007, this is what you get:
 
Year
Rush %
Total QB Yards
Record
2005 53.5% 11-1 (7-0)
2007 43.6% 11-2 (5-2)
2006 42.4% 11-2 (5-2)
2004 31.3% 8-4 (4-2)
2002 29.2% 9-4 (6-1)
2003 14.9% 8-5 (6-1)
2001 2.97% 3-8 (1-6)

Throwing the two seasons at Michigan into the mix wouldn't change much, either. The 2008 and 2009 campaigns would be two of the bottom four performances in terms of how many of the quarterback's yards came on the ground and two of the bottom three in terms of overall record.

Even beyond just the quarterback's performance in the offense, however, Rich Rod's offenses seem to thrive when the majority of the overall offense is primarily generated on the ground. From his last nine seasons:

Year
Total Team Offense Rush %
Record
2005
73.2%
11-1
(7-0)
2002
67.8%
9-4
(6-1)
2006
65.7%
11-2
(5-2)
2007
65.1%
11-2
(5-2)
2004
60.4%
8-4
(4-2)
2003
57.6%
8-5
(6-1)
2001
52.4%
3-8
(1-6)
2008
50.8%
3-9
(2-6)
2009
48.4%
5-7
(1-7)

And these aren't even necessarily based on the quality of the team. If this was ranked on team total rushing yards it would make sense that more yards would generally be correlated to a better record, but these are rushing percentages compared to the rest of the offense on a year-by-year basis, comparing one aspect of the team to another aspect of the same team.

Very interesting findings, if you ask me. Findings that point to Denard Robinson being the ticket to the promised land? Maybe. Clearly Rich Rodriguez's offense flourishes with a quarterback that can run, and run often. His best team had 73% of their total offense come on the ground. Its quarterback ran for 125 more yards than he passed for. Sounds like Denard to me.

Also notice that after White's first season--in which passing was sporadic and the team was heavily reliant on his rushing offense--his passing stats took off. As Denard's passing game develops, his rushing options will open up more, and as Steve Slaton got to experience, this opens the door for an unbelievable rushing attack from your running backs as well.

Agree? Disagree? Let me know what you see in these stats, or if they even matter to you at all. I look forward to hearing what you get out of these numbers. [Ed: /Ives.]

Thanks for reading,

CollegeFootball13