Conference Power Rankings: Week 1

Conference Power Rankings: Week 1

Submitted by 1464 on September 5th, 2011 at 1:54 AM

For reference, I have modified this post to serve as a link for future CPR diaries. 

How the rankings are factored:

1. Each week, I come up with a W/L record for each conference. This becomes a baseline stat in two ways, as a Win% and a Loss%.
2. If a team wins a game, they receive points equal to the opposing conferences' win percentage.
3. If a team loses a game, they receive negative points equal to the opposing conferences' loss percentage.
4. I add up all the games. Each conference receives points based on what each team did during a given week. I then divide by the number of out of conference games that a conference played.
5. Once the points are tallied, I divide each conferences' points by the highest conferences' point total, so that the highest conference receives a score of 1.00.

In example:

Michigan beat WMU this week. The MAC had a win percentage of 0.615, so Michigan gained 0.615 points for the Big Ten. The Big Ten had a LOSS percentage of 0.167. This means that the MAC received -0.167 points for losing to Michigan. Had they lost to a lesser conference, the loss percentage of that conference would have been higher, so the point hit would have been more substantial.

FCS wins are not counted towards a conferences' points. FCS losses, however, are counted, and are very damaging. The FCS loss percentage is 0.947, which would be about as negative as losing to the Big Ten five times.

There are a few flaws in this system. One, individual teams are not accounted for. USC beating Minnesota means as much as if they beat Ohio State. This ends up balancing out, for the most part, as a larger sample size typically evens out the playing field. Two, margin of victory is not factored. While Auburn barely escaped, it counts as if they won by 4 touchdowns. I may address this in the future, but for now, it is way too much effort.

 

 

Conference Power Rankings

Big East 8-0 1.000
Big 12 10-0 0.932
Big 10 10-2 0.552
SEC 10-2 0.441
Indepedent 2-2 0.395
Mountain West 4-2 0.392
MAC 8-5 0.303
CUSA 5-6 0.153
ACC 7-3 -0.393
PAC 12 8-4 -0.410
Sun Belt 0-7 -0.638
WAC 1-6 -0.746

Overrated:

Big East

The Big East benefits from having an 8-0 record and wins over 'powerhouse' conferences such as the ACC, Conference USA, MAC, and an oh-so-sweet rain delayed win over The Return to Glory's. Look for the Big East to remain overrated next week, as they play Tennessee, North Carolina, and not much else.

Conference USA

CUSA sports a 5-6 record along with an above average power ranking. Three of their six losses did not count this week, as they were to the unbeaten Big 12. CUSA will most likely find themselves below sea level once next weeks rankings are posted.

Underrated:

SEC

Unfortunately, ESPN's constant drone about SEC level talent is more accurate than it is false. Over the past two years, the SEC has dominated the power rankings. This week, they were hampered by Georgia and Ole Miss losing to Boise State and BYU respectively. Expect the SEC to make a jump next week.

Pac 12

The Pac 12 is reeling after an 8-4 start which saw Oregon State become one of only two FBS teams to lose to an FCS school. Lane Kiffin did his best Brian Kelly impression after sqeaking past the Golden Gophers. The win exposed USC as a vunerable team, however the Pac 12 is much stronger than their -0.410 power ranking indicates.

If you don't rank by resume, aren't you just pleasuring yourself?

If you don't rank by resume, aren't you just pleasuring yourself?

Submitted by Blazefire on September 16th, 2010 at 12:50 PM

Here's Andy Staples of SI's explanation for not ranking Michigan this week.

I didn't rank Michigan this week because I still don't know how good the Wolverines are. I know quarterback Denard Robinson is one of the best players in the country, but a win against Notre Dame doesn't reveal anything because we don't know if Notre Dame is any good, either.

Uh huh. Well, how do we know if Alabama or Ohio State are any good either? All they did was win their first to games. Is it because Miami and Penn State are ranked? Well, how do we know Miami and Penn State are any good? All they did was win ONE of their first two games.

Now, this is a serious question. If you were a press person with a ranking, and you did not rank on resume, aren't you just stroking your ego? "I know more than reality, and baby, it feels good"?

I hereby declare a new rule. BCS conference teams are worth 3 points. Non AQ FBS teams are worth 2 points. FCS teams are worth 1 point. After points are calculated, ties will be broken based on the following criteria. Every touchdown scored is worth a point. Every touchdown given up loses a point, and every 100 yards gained or given up is worth half a point up or down, respectively.

There's your rankings. Prove to me that's not pretty much the only sane way to rank teams this early in the year. Later in the year, you can mix in Opponent Wins, etcetera.

Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings 5-23

Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings 5-23

Submitted by Tim on May 23rd, 2010 at 6:36 PM

Just a little bit of change since last week, but ESPN did tweak their ratings a bit. Action since last rankings:

5-16-10 Ohio State gains commitment from Michael Bennett.
5-18-10 Purdue gains commitment from Robert Kugler.

Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank School # of Commits Rivals 250 Scout Average ESPN 150
1 Ohio State 11 2 3.64 6
2 Notre Dame 9 4 3.56 4
3 Michigan 4 1 3.25 2
4 Michigan State 5 1 3.20 1
5 Indiana 8 0 2.38 0
6 Iowa 3 1 2.67 0
7 Minnesota 2 1 2.50 1
8 Wisconsin 2 1 2.50 0
9 Northwestern 2 0 3.00 0
10 Illinois 2 0 3.00 0
11 Purdue 1 0 3.00 0
12 Penn State 0 0 0 0

I'll only make charts for the teams that currently have commits. Rivals 250 means that a given prospect is on the Rivals 250 to Watch, and ESPN 150 means that a prospect is on the Watch List for the ESPNU 150. Scout ratings are on the 5-star scale.

#1 Ohio State - 11 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Steve Miller DE 250 5 150*
Kenny Hayes DE 250 4 46
Brian Bobek OL NR 4 150*
Chase Farris DE NR 4 150*
Michael Bennett DT NR 4 150*
DerJuan Gambrell CB NR 4 45
Jeremy Cash S NR 3 150*
Jeff Heuerman TE NR 3 150*
Antonio Underwood OL NR 3 46
Chris Carter OL NR 3 46
Tommy Brown OL NR 3 46

All of the Buckeyes' commits are now 3-stars or better to Scout, and they also pick up a talented lineman in Michael Bennett.

#2 Notre Dame - 9 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Ben Koyack TE 250 5 150*
Conor Hanratty OL 250 4 150*
Matt Hegarty OL 250 4 150*
Jarrett Grace LB 250 4 46
Jordan Prestwood OL NR 4 150*
Tony Springmann OL NR 4 46
Brad Carrico OL NR 3 46
Matthias Farley CB NR 3 46
Kyle Brindza K NR 1 45

Everyone but Brindza is now rated by Scout. He is also considered a soft commit to ESPN, for the record.

#3 Michigan - 4 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Delonte Hollowell CB 250 3 150*
Brennen Beyer DE NR 4 150*
Greg Brown CB NR 3 46
Shawn Conway WR NR 3 46

No change for Michigan. This is a moderately depressing development following the BBQ at the Big House. Hopefully a couple will drop after Michigan announces their self-imposed sanctions this week.

#4 Michigan State - 5 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Lawrence Thomas LB 250 5 150*
Onaje Miller RB/Ath NR 4 45
Taiwan Jones Ath/LB NR 3 45
Connor Cook QB NR 2 46
AJ Sims CB NR 2 46

Jones, Cook, and Sims pick up rankings. I'm personally of the opinion that a 2-star ranking is worse than a 1-star ranking, because it means that the Scouts have evaluated you, and they don't think you're any good.

#5 Indiana - 8 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Jake Reed TE NR 3 46
Ralston Evans OL NR 3 46
Max Pirman LB NR 3 45
Kyle Kennedy LB NR 2 46
Tre Roberson QB NR 2 46
Kirk Harris OL NR 2 46
Zack Shaw LB NR 2 46
Mike Replogle LB NR 2 45

Big week for Indiana, as they go from one commit ranked on Scout to all of them (though they didn't grab anyone new). A trio of 3-stars headline the group.

#6 Iowa - 3 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Austin Blythe OL 250 3 46
Marcus Grant WR NR 2 46
JaCorey Shepherd WR NR 3 46

Iowa goes from nobody ranked on Scout to everybody ranked on Scout, and I noticed that Blythe is on the Rivals250 watchlist, which I missed last week. That moves the Hawkeyes up a couple spots.

#7 Minnesota - 2 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Tommy Olson OL 250 2 150*
James Farrow CB NR 3 46

Olson, who both Rivals and ESPN really like, picks up a curious 2-star rating from Scout. It will be interesting to see if the sites ever reach a consensus on him.

#8 Wisconsin - 2 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Jake Keefer LB 250 3 46
Sam Arneson TE NR 2 46

Keefer picks up a 2-star rating from Scout, and Keefer remains constant. I think that bumps the Badgers below Minnesota.

#9 Northwestern - 2 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Sean Cotton S NR 3 46
Jarrell Williams CB NR 3 46

Cotton and Williams get 3-star ratings from Scout.

#10 Illinois - 2 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Zeph Grimes S NR 3 46
Hunter Wells OL NR 3 45

Illinois is a touch behind Northwestern, by the slimmest of margins (1 point on ESPN).

#11 Purdue - 1 Commit
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Robert Kugler TE NR 3 45

Purdue comes into the picture, picking up a pretty good tight end in Robert Kugler, the son of Steelers OL coach Sean Kugler.

Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings 5-9

Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings 5-9

Submitted by Tim on May 9th, 2010 at 4:22 PM

Just a little bit of change since last week, but ESPN did tweak their ratings a bit. Action since last rankings:

5-3-10 Iowa gains commitment from Austin Blythe.

Now that Iowa has jumped into the fray, Penn State and Purdue are the only Big Ten (plus Notre Dame) programs that don't have any commitments.

Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank School # of Commits Rivals 250 Scout Average ESPN 150
1 Ohio State 10 2 3.40 5
2 Notre Dame 9 4 3.33 4
3 Michigan 4 1 3.25 2
4 Michigan State 5 1 2.40 1
5 Indiana 8 0 1.25 0
6 Minnesota 2 1 2.00 1
7 Wisconsin 2 1 2.00 0
8 Iowa 2 0 1.00 0
9 Northwestern 2 0 1.00 0
10 Illinois 2 0 1.00 0
11 Penn State 0 0 0 0
11 Purdue 0 0 0 0

I'll only make charts for the teams that currently have commits. Rivals 250 means that a given prospect is on the Rivals 250 to Watch, and ESPN 150 means that a prospect is on the Watch List for the ESPNU 150. Scout ratings are on the 5-star scale.

#1 Ohio State - 10 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Steve Miller DE 250 5 150*
Kenny Hayes DE 250 4 46
Brian Bobek OL NR 4 150*
Chase Farris DE NR 4 150*
DerJuan Gambrell CB NR 4 45
Jeremy Cash S NR 3 150*
Jeff Heuerman TE NR 3 150*
Antonio Underwood OL NR 3 46
Chris Carter OL NR 3 45
Tommy Brown OL NR 1 46

ESPN now deems DE Chase Farris worthy of being on the ESPN150 watch list.

#2 Notre Dame - 9 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Ben Koyack TE 250 5 150*
Conor Hanratty OL 250 4 150*
Matt Hegarty OL 250 4 150*
Jarrett Grace LB 250 4 46
Jordan Prestwood OL NR 4 150*
Tony Springmann OL NR 4 46
Brad Carrico OL NR 3 46
Matthias Farley CB NR 1 46
Kyle Brindza K NR 1 45

Nothing new for the Irish.

#3 Michigan - 4 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Delonte Hollowell CB 250 3 150*
Brennen Beyer DE NR 4 150*
Greg Brown CB NR 3 46
Shawn Conway WR NR 3 46

Brennen Beyer goes back on the ESPN150 watchlist.

#4 Michigan State - 5 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Lawrence Thomas LB 250 5 150*
Onaje Miller RB/Ath NR 4 45
Connor Cook QB NR 1 46
AJ Sims CB NR 1 46
Taiwan Jones Ath/LB NR 1 45

No change.

#5 Indiana - 8 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Jake Reed TE NR 3 46
Kyle Kennedy LB NR 1 46
Tre Roberson QB NR 1 46
Kirk Harris OL NR 1 46
Ralston Evans OL NR 1 46
Zack Shaw LB NR 1 46
Mike Replogle LB NR 1 45
Max Pirman LB NR 1 45

Teams are going to start passing the Hoosiers once they get more commits.

#6 Minnesota - 2 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Tommy Olson OL 250 3 150*
James Farrow CB NR 1 46

ESPN finally acknowledges that Calvin Phillips isn't committed to the Gophers (which he hasn't been for at least a couple months now).

#7 Wisconsin - 2 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Jake Keefer LB 250 3 46
Sam Arneson TE NR 1 45

No change for Wisconsin.

#8 Iowa - 3 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Austin Blythe OL NR 3 46
Marcus Grant WR NR 1 46
JaCorey Shepherd WR NR 1 46

Iowa picks up a decent offensive lineman. They're right on the heels of Minnesota and Wisconsin, passing Northwestern and Illinois.

#9 Northwestern - 2 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Sean Cotton S NR 1 46
Jarrell Williams CB NR 1 46

Both of NU's commits are unranked to the services.

#10 Illinois - 2 Commits
Name Position Rivals Scout ESPN
Zeph Grimes S NR 1 46
Hunter Wells OL NR 1 45

Still just two for the Illini.

Big Ten post-spring power rankings

Big Ten post-spring power rankings

Submitted by jswavel34 on May 3rd, 2010 at 11:06 AM

per ESPN:

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/21941/big-ten-post-spring-power-rankings-2

 

#7 and behind NW?

Wha??

 

EDIT:

Disclaimer: The Rittenberg poll is meaningless. I realize this, you realize this, and we all know it to be true. But, you know, it's Monday so let's talk about it. k bye