Pick Six 2012

Pick Six 2012

Submitted by Jeff on August 30th, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Just a note: Writing your picks in the comment section is NOT a valid entry. You must enter your picks using the form below or at this link.  Feel free to discuss your picks here, but you must submit the form in order to enter the contest.

[ED: Bump. Get your picks in!]

After a great first year of Pick Six on MGoBlog, we’re back by popular demand.  Unfortunately, we never had a results post in order to honor the original creators .  (The MGoBlog summary will be posted after Blue-Gray Sky releases their results from 2009)  This year I will be handling the technical details but we are going to have somebody else write the recaps.  If you are interested in the job of writing the weekly summaries send an email to [email protected].

Onto the contest.  Here's how it works.

1. We divide the top 25 into 5 groups of 5 based on the preseason AP Poll: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, etc. For this year's poll, the groups are:

  • A: Southern Cal, Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon
  • B: Georgia, Florida State, Michigan, South Carolina, Arkansas
  • C: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Clemson, Texas
  • D: Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, TCU
  • E: Stanford, Kansas State, Florida, Boise State, Louisville

2. Before the season starts you pick one team from each group, plus one unranked team. You're trying to pick the teams you think will finish highest in the final AP poll (after the bowl games).

3. Each week we'll try to update and publish the standings in a spreadsheet so you can track the progress of your teams. You get 25 points for having the #1 team, 24 points for the #2 team, on down to 1 point for the #25 team. Unranked teams get zero points.

4. The winner is the person with the most points (i.e. the highest ranked teams) after the bowl season.  The midseason standings are only for entertainment purposes.  Only the final AP poll counts.

5. And the grand prize?  I will personally give the winner 10 meaningless upvotes.  Plus, last year some guy named Brian offered a small prize.

Throughout the season someone will hopefully give regular updates on the progress of the contest in the Diaries.

That's it for the Pick Six: short, sweet and simple. The entry form closes on Thursday August 30 before the first kickoff, so get your picks in now. Good luck!

Enter the Pick Six contest before football starts tonight!

Enter the Pick Six contest before football starts tonight!

Submitted by Jeff on August 30th, 2012 at 3:49 PM

I've been busy so I haven't been promoting the contest as much this year.  So, here's a quick reminder to enter the contest today before football kicks off.

Use the form in the comments below, or read the directions at the original page http://mgoblog.com/diaries/pick-six-2012

Pick Six Week 12

Pick Six Week 12

Submitted by Jeff on November 24th, 2011 at 9:57 PM

The standings live here as always.  BlueBarron gave the proper sacrifices to the Ctrl+F deities and has returned to the top 20.

This week Southern Miss and Florida State drop out of the polls.  Georgia Tech returns as one replacement and Virginia enters the poll for the first time since 2007.  It will come as no surprise to you that Virginia was not a very popular pick this year.  Only 2 people selected Virginia as their unranked team.  What may come as a surprise is that MaizeAndBlueWahoo was not one of the two.  Instead he chose Boston College.  I wonder if he’s regretting his decision to choose all of his most hated teams.

Individual Ballot Analysis

Brooklyn Blue is on a 3-week stay at the top of the leaderboard.  This week he has 105 points.  The perfect ballot has changed slightly with the losses by Oklahoma State and Clemson.  With 119 points this week, the perfect ballot is LSU, Stanford, Arkansas, Michigan State, Southern Cal and Houston.

There are four people tied for last place who all have the worst possible score.  They’re only getting points from Oklahoma and TCU for a score of 21 points.

Judging Your Picks

It has been a long time since MGoBlog has been able to claim that it’s readers had better than average skill at predicting the outcome of this college football season.  This week a completely random ballot and the average MGoBlog ballot are both earning 54 points.

Games To Watch

There are a ton of good games to watch this weekend.  It might just be the best weekend in college football.  The top team from every group is playing in a game that is at least somewhat tough.

  • #1 LSU (leader of Group A) vs. #3 Arkansas (leader of Group C)
  • #4 Stanford vs. #22 Notre Dame
  • #8 Houston (leader of Unranked) vs. Tulsa
  • #11 Michigan St (leader of Group D) vs. Northwestern
  • #10 Southern Cal (leader of Group E) vs. UCLA

While the last two games may not sound that tough, Northwestern picked off Nebraska earlier this season and they’re playing at home.  Teams don’t just walk into the vaunted Ryan Field and expect an easy victory.

USC is far and away the best team in the Pac-12 South but they’re ineligible to go to the title game.  Right now UCLA is a game ahead of Utah but Utah has an almost guaranteed victory over Colorado on Friday.  That means Saturday night UCLA will know they are playing for their spot in the Pac-12 title game.

Thanksgiving

Since it’s Thanksgiving I’d like to share what I’m thankful for.

I’m thankful for Georgia and Virginia Tech quietly putting together good seasons.  I’m also thankful for Stanford getting back into the top 5.

I am not thankful for Arizona State.  They have forever disappointed me with their losses to UCLA, Washington State and Arizona the last three weeks.  That is about as far from a murder’s row as you can get in the BCS.

What are your non-Michigan thanks?

Pick Six Week 11: Almost Done

Pick Six Week 11: Almost Done

Submitted by Jeff on November 18th, 2011 at 12:23 AM

Here are the standings.  Don’t mock using Ctrl+F to find your name or else half of your teams will lose, your score will go down by 17 points and you’ll drop 57 places in the rankings.  Just ask BlueBarron. If you’ve forgotten your username or have any other questions email [email protected]

 

Lots of “new” teams entered the poll this week.  TCU, Florida State, Notre Dame and Baylor re-enter the poll to replace Georgia Tech, Texas, Cincinnati and Auburn.  Florida State and Notre Dame will make a lot of readers happy since they were 2 of the top 4 most popular teams to be picked -- 36% and 35% of the people picked them.  Texas was the most popular unranked team so their loss hurt 30% of the contestants.  At the same time only 99 total people picked Georgia Tech, Cincinnati or Auburn, so basically nobody would notice if I didn’t point out their loss.

Individual Ballot Analysis

Brooklyn Blue stays on top of the rankings this week with 93 points.  His highest ranked team is Oklahoma at 5th but he also has the 8th, 9th, 11th and 12th place team.  The perfect ballot has 110 points this week coming from the same six teams: LSU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Michigan State, Southern Cal and Clemson.

At the other end of the standings there was a lot of shakeup in the race for worst.  TCU, Florida State and Notre Dame had been killing people the last few weeks.  Now that they’re ranked again there is a new person all alone in last place with 25 points.  It’s also the first time in several weeks that the person in last place does not have the worst possible entry.  They chose Notre Dame and are getting a whole 2 points more than the theoretical worst possibility.

Judging Your Picks

This week the MGoBlogosphere is bringing negative value to their picks.  A completely random entry should earn 54 points but the contest’s median and mean is 52 points.  If you have more than 52 points you’re an above average MGoBlog.  Cheer up though, if you’re reading this, then you’re above average in my mind no matter what your Pick 6 score is. 

Games to Watch

According to ESPN’s schedule the weekly ESPN3D game is Vanderbilt at Tennessee.  That is 5-5 Vanderbilt with roughly the 75th best offense in the country playing at 4-6 Tennessee with roughly the 86th best offense in the country.  Wouldn’t the offenses have to be able to move the ball to take advantage of that 3rd dimension?

I guess the punts will look spectacular.

Here are the games that could shake up the Pick Six standings.

#18 USC at #4 Oregon

8 pm on ABC

Oregon has one last test before they crush Oregon State and then crush whoever manages to not lose themselves out of contention for the Pac-12 South title.

#17 Nebraska at #20 Michigan

Noon on ESPN

I don’t need to talk you into watching this game.

#5 Oklahoma at #25 Baylor

8 pm on ABC

Which 8 pm game will score more points?  This one or the USC-Oregon game?  My money is on this one.  Five of Baylor’s nine games have had a total of more than 80 points.

#13 Kansas State at NR Texas

8 pm on FX

If Texas can beat Kansas State at home they should be ranked next week.  I’m not sure if Texas will be able to catch up to Auburn’s record for number of entrances and exits from the poll, but they can try.

NR Cincinnati at NR Rutgers

Noon on ESPNU

There are no Big East teams in the AP poll this week.  West Virginia is receiving the most votes but they aren’t playing this week.  With a strong win this week and a couple of losses Cincinnati might make it back into the poll.  But you shouldn’t actually watch the game.  First, it will probably be terrible.  Second, it is on at the same time as the Michigan game.  Third, only 4 people actually picked Cincinnati as their unranked team so chances are you don’t care at all whether or not they’re ranked.

Pick Six Week 10

Pick Six Week 10

Submitted by Jeff on November 11th, 2011 at 12:13 AM

Standings are here.  Ctrl+F is your friend if you don’t want to read through 1149 names to find yours.

I’m too pissed off at Arizona State and West Virginia both dropping out of the rankings this week to offer up much commentary.

Texas sneaks back into the poll and Southern Miss is ranked for the first time since 2004 just like I very safely predicted last week.  Why did they have to do it at the expense of my teams though? Blerg.

Nebraska and Michigan are the only other big losers, dropping about 10 places in the poll.  Everyone else has only moved slightly, including Alabama who only drops 2 spots.

This week it will be TCU or Ohio State who crawl back into the rankings.

Individual Ballot Analysis

Week 10 brings us the eighth lead change of the season.  BrooklynBlue is in the lead this week with 94 points coming from Oklahoma, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Michigan State, Southern Cal and Houston.

He trails a perfect ballot by only 11 points.  The perfect ballot this week is unchanged for the third week in a row: LSU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Michigan State, Southern Cal and Clemson.  That lineup would earn you 105 points.

The bottom five had a bit of a shakeup as Texas got three people out of dead last place.  Two of last week’s loveable losers remain and are joined by three new members of the last place club.  They have to enjoy it while their infamy lasts though, TCU might just rocket them up the standings all the way to 1110th.

Judging Your Picks

Not much change from last week.  MGoBlog’s picks have a median of 50 points while a completely random ballot would earn an expected 51 points.  If you have over 50 points then you are officially above average.  If you have under 50 points, then you should look in a mirror and repeat to yourself

Games to Watch

#10 Virginia Tech just beat #20 Georgia Tech by 11 points and #11 Houston is crushing unranked (and coachless?) Tulane.  This weekend one might want to keep an eye on these games

#19 Nebraska at #12 Penn State

noon on ESPN

Probably the lowest scoring BCS game of the weekend.  A very good defense going up against a questionable offense and a good defense going up against a bad offense.  It will provide an interesting contrast to the noon points-fest of Texas at Missouri (on FX).  I don’t want to steal jamiemac’s thunder but you should probably consider taking under 43 in the Nebraska game and over 59 in the Texas game.

#24 Auburn at #14 Georgia

3:30 on CBS

The only real challenge standing between Georgia and the SEC East championship.  I don’t think anybody knows what to make of Auburn this year, while Georgia is an uninspiring 7-2 team coming off a 63-16 win against New Mexico State.  You’ll be busy during this game but look for updates on the scroll.

#6 Oregon at #3 Stanford

8 pm on ABC

The Pac-12 North will be decided this weekend.  Who they will face is up in the air.  UCLA could be their opponent.  Whoever wins this week will almost certainly be in the Rose Bowl if they’re not in the championship game.  If they make it to the championship then the loser will probably be in the Rose Bowl.  How do you think that game will turn out for the Big 10?

West Virginia at #23 Cincinnati

noon on ABC/ESPN3

After a loss to Louisville last week West Virginia’s Big East Title is looking unlikely.  If they win out they still have a chance though.  Cincinnati is alone in first place with a conference record of 3-0.

Pick Six Week 9

Pick Six Week 9

Submitted by Jeff on November 4th, 2011 at 12:08 AM

Here are the standings.  If you’ve forgotten your username or have any other questions email [email protected]

 

Wisconsin continued its slide down the rankings.  Michigan State and Clemson pick up a loss and drop out of the Top 10.  The leaderboard was full of people who had picked those three teams last week so this caused a big shakeup in the Pick Six standings.

Elsewhere in the country, the Texas schools, A&M and Tech, both dropped out of the rankings.  That leaves Houston as the only school from Texas ranked in the AP poll.  I wonder when the last time there was no Texas school ranked.  Is it possible we’ll see that happen this year?  Probably not.  Who is going to beat Houston?

Georgia Tech and Auburn get back into the rankings, so no new unranked teams this week.  Southern Miss is hanging on right at the edge of the poll.  A weak team could drop out and put USM into the poll for the first time since 2004.

Individual Ballot Analysis

Despite all the losses last week, the perfect ballot hasn’t actually changed teams.  It is still LSU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Michigan State, Southern Cal and Clemson.  It has dropped from 109 points last week to 97 points this week though.

We have two new leaders this week.  AMazinBlue and orobs climbed up to first place with slightly different entries.  They both have Alabama, Stanford, Arkansas and Michigan as their unranked team.  In Group D and E they made different choices though.  AMazinBlue chose Michigan State and West Virginia which was worth the same amount as orobs’ choice of Georgia and Southern Cal.

At the complete opposite end of the leaderboard, there are now five people who have the absolute lowest possible number of points.  All five picked Oklahoma for 19 points and all their other picks are unranked.

Judging your Picks

Last week the MGoBlogosphere had the unfortunate shame of having a worse median ballot than a completely random one.  Fortunately this week we’ve improved to the same as a random ballot.

Someone who made their picks completely randomly would expect to earn 51 points.  The median of the Pick Six entries is 52 points and the mean is 51 points.

Weekly Brian Watch

I have not given an update on how Brian has been doing in a while.  It happened to coincide with a slide down the rankings

Week Rank Score Reason
5 52 87 Everything looking good
6 70 79 Texas was blown out by Oklahoma
7 84 77 Texas loses to Oklahoma State
8 307 58 West Virginia loses to Syracuse! Wisconsin gets close loss to Michigan St
9 551 52 Wisconsin loses to Ohio State

He now has undefeated Boise State and Stanford with one good win (USC) between them but no really good wins.  Then Wisconsin, West Virginia and Texas all have two losses with one combined good win (Nebraska) and Notre Dame has 3 losses with one good win (Michigan State).  That is the perfect recipe for a completely average rank.

Games to Watch

#10 South Carolina at #8 Arkansas

(7:15 pm on ESPN)

Two of the 3 best second-tier SEC teams face each other.  This should probably be won handily by Arkansas handily now that South Carolina is without Marcus Lattimore and their QB situation has been Spurriered.  But who knows, Arkansas didn’t look that great against Vanderbilt last week.

#17 Kansas State at #3 Oklahoma State

(8:00 pm on ABC/ESPN2)

After starting out 7-0 Kansas State will probably lose their second game.  It’s entirely possible they’ll lose their final 5 games of the season.  Next week home against Texas A&M is probably their only chance to not have at least a 4 game losing streak.  They play at Texas and home against Iowa State after that.

#6 Oregon at Washington

(10:30 pm on FSN)

If Oregon can get by Washington who was briefly ranked two weeks ago then they’ll set up a Pac-12 showdown with #4 Stanford next week.  If Washington somehow pulls the upset then they’ll shoot back into the rankings probably around #20.

Am I forgetting anything?  Oh, I guess maybe you could watch

#1 LSU at #2 Alabama

(8:00 pm on CBS)

The second-favorite choice from group A (Alabama was on 33% of the entries) facing the least favorite choice (LSU was on 3%).  It probably won’t actually affect the standings very much though.  The loser will still be in the Top 10 unless it’s a blowout and probably will stay in the Top 5 if it’s close.

Pick Six Week 8

Pick Six Week 8

Submitted by Jeff on October 28th, 2011 at 12:52 AM

Quick update this week.  Here are the standings.  If you’ve forgotten your username or have any other questions email [email protected]

 

Four teams exit the polls this week.  With its third loss of the season, Auburn drops out of the polls for the third time this season.  Three other preseason unranked teams also dropped out, Georgia Tech, Illinois and Washington (thanks for your brief one week stay in the polls).

Texas Tech, USC, Penn State and Cincinnati replace them in the polls.  Texas Tech and Cincinnati are new teams to the rankings and bring the total up to 14 unranked teams that have been in the poll for at least 1 week,

Individual Ballot Analysis

We have a new leader of the contest this week.  GoBlueSTL has jumped up to first place thanks primarily to Michigan State and USC.  He earned 92 points which is 17 off the highest possible score.  The perfect ballot this week has LSU, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Michigan St, Southern Cal and Clemson for 109 points.

We also have new leaders in futility.  The people who had been dominating the bottom moved up and we have a 4-way tie for last place.  All four of them are receiving all 15 points by picking Oklahoma in group A with their 5 other teams unranked.

Analyzing your Ballot

The MGoBlogosphere was too busy reading Three and Out to pay attention to the outside football world.  For the first time this season the population of MGoBlog would have done better if they had just randomly picked their teams.

A random ballot would expect to earn 52 points this week.  The median and mean of MGoBlog entries is 49 points.  That is probably not statistically significant but it is still not a good sign.

Games to Watch

This week we’ve got

#9 Michigan State at #13 Nebraska

A game that seems to fit in the mold of a classic Big Ten matchup even though it is the first time they meet as Big Ten opponents.  Historically Nebraska is 3-0 against Michigan State with an average score of 41 – 9.

#4 Stanford at #20 USC

"What’s your deal"?  Didn’t Andrew Luck come in as a redshirt freshman for that infamous upset of USC?  Now let’s see what he does as a senior.

Florida vs. #22 Georgia

If Florida wants a successful season, let alone to be ranked again, they absolutely have to win this game.  If Georgia wins they will be in pretty good shape.  South Carolina seems very erratic and without Lattimore that will only be worse.  Georgia might be able to get control of the SEC East with a win here and a loss by South Carolina @ Arkansas next week.  Georgia's only tough games left are home games against Auburn and Georgia Tech.

#11 Oklahoma at #10 Kansas State

Is Oklahoma as bad as they looked last week?  Is Kansas State any good or is their record solely a product of terrible competition?

Pick Six Week 7: Snoozefest

Pick Six Week 7: Snoozefest

Submitted by Jeff on October 21st, 2011 at 12:44 AM

Standings are here.

As expected the Top 25 ate their cupcakes without any problems.  The six teams that lost moved down and everybody else moved up around them.  Michigan, Georgia Tech, Illinois and Arizona State all stayed in the poll while Baylor and Texas dropped out of the rankings.  The teams that won or were on a bye moved up to replace them without much excitement.  The only big jumps in the poll were Kansas State getting up to 12th and Michigan State jumping from 23rd to 15th.

The AP voters did decide that Georgia is good enough to be ranked again.  After starting out the season 0-2, they’ve won 5 in a row and look like the leader in the SEC East now that Marcus Lattimore is done at South Carolina.  There are now 2 teams from Group D ranked, the most since week 2.

Washington became the 12th team to enter the polls after starting the season unranked.  That should lift the spirits of the 9 people who forgot Jake Locker graduated and picked Washington in their ballot.  I hope they don’t get too excited though because the Huskies are about to get beat by Stanford.

Individual Ballot Analysis

Willhouse is in first place for the third week in a row and the second week in sole possession of the lead.  In 2nd place 30rackchamp rode Michigan State and Washington up from 53rd place last week.  (Is 30rack a play on 30 Rock and Rackham? Just 30 Rock? Something totally different?  Enquiring minds want to know.)

After 6 weeks of first place being within 6 points of the perfect ballot, that mythical prize is pulling away.  The perfect ballot is the same this week as last: LSU, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, West Virginia and Clemson.  That’s worth 111 points while Willhouse has only 97 points since he didn’t pick Michigan State.  97 points is the highest point total of the season.

Judging Your Pick

MGoBlog seemed to have done a good job of making their picks.  For the first 6 weeks of the season the MGoBlog median and mean were higher than what a randomly picked ballot would expect to earn.  People who read about Michigan football for hours every day had a good knowledge of the wider world of college football.

Week 7 politely steps in and says that we actually have no more idea of what we’re talking about than a bunch of monkeys.

Random Ballot 54
MGoBlog Median 54
MGoBlog Mean 55
 
monkey-on-mgoblog

A picture of the author at his desk.

 

Games to Watch

Not as many terrible cupcakes as last week but there still aren’t a lot of elite matchups.  The daytime is full of semi-interesting to terrible games with the most relevant games on at night.

  • #20 Auburn at #1 LSU - 3:30 on CBS
  • USC at Notre Dame - 7:30 pm on NBC
  • #6 Wisconsin at #16 Michigan State – 8:00 pm on ESPN
  • #25 Washington at #8 Stanford – 8:00 pm on ABC
  • The winner of USC and Notre Dame is almost guaranteed to be ranked next week.  This week’s “also receiving votes” is #26 Penn State, #27 Notre Dame, #28 USC.  With a good win over a decent opponent either Notre Dame or USC is going to take the spot of whichever team at the bottom of the poll loses.

    The other games might be good games but more likely they are going to be beatdowns.

Pick Six Week Six

Pick Six Week Six

Submitted by Jeff on October 14th, 2011 at 1:00 AM

The Pick Six standings are starting to settle down.  There will still be lots of change over the course of the season but fewer teams will make 15+ place jumps and so people will move up and down slower in the standings.  If you've forgotten your username send an email to [email protected] and I can look you up.

 

Pick Six welcomes the Houston Cougars into the AP Top 25 for the first time this season.  All 31 people who chose Houston are glad they finally made it into the poll.  With 31 people Houston was actually the 6th most popular unranked teams.  The only top 8 most popular unranked teams that have not gotten into the rankings yet are BYU and Iowa.  With the way the season is going so far, it looks like only BYU has a chance of ever being ranked, and that is a pretty smal chance.

In fact there have been 11 preseason unranked teams who have made appearances in the poll.  Nine of those eleven are still ranked this week (South Florida are the teams that returned to the unranked masses).

We also have to say hello to Michigan State as they reentered the poll with a #23 ranking.  We went 3 weeks without anybody from Group D in the rankings.  Surprisingly the return of points from Group D didn’t have much of an effect on the leaderboard.  None of the top 16 people in this week’s standings picked Michigan State.

Other than that the only major changes were Texas dropping to #22 and Florida dropping out of the poll.  That gives the 330 people who picked Michigan an advantage over the 344 people who picked Texas.

Individual Ballot Analysis

Once again our leader stays on top from last week.  But it’s not actually BlueMars24 and Cottonpicker whose fortunes fell with Florida.  This week, Willhouse stays on top with 95 points and claims first place all by himself.  It’s his West Virginia and Clemson picks that are keeping him in first.

The perfect ballot has finally cracked 100 points this week with #1 LSU, #6 Oklahoma State, #4 Wisconsin, #23 Michigan State, #13 West Virginia and #8 Clemson.  That is three teams earning at least 20 points this week.

The two people with the worst possible ballot actually have managed to go even lower than last week’s 20 points.  This week Florida State dropped out of the poll so Oregon is their sole ranked team earning them 17 points.  If Oregon somehow loses badly to Arizona State and Stanford there could be the mythical zero point ballot.

Weekly Brian watch

Not much to update here.  Brian drops slightly to 70th place.  West Virginia picked up a few more points but Texas lost them and more.

Judging your picks

Even though the perfect ballot is at its highest point yet, the average ballots are falling.  The mean and median of the MGoBlogosphere is 55 points (down from 60).  A ballot picked randomly would be expected to have 49 points this week.

A full two thirds of the MGoBlog pickers are above that random level.  So congratulations MGoBloggers, you are definitely value-added Pick Six Pickers.

Games to Not Watch

cookie-monster-cupcakes-nailed-it

As stubob pointed out in his Ugly Game of the Week diary most of the Top 25 is taking on cupcakes.  However I think he posted far too pretty of cupcakes in his post.  Most of these matchups are against bad cupcakes.  Arkansas is not playing this week but 7 of the 9 active Top Ten teams are favored by 2+ touchdowns.  The average line on those 9 games is 22 points.

So, no these games do not deserve good looking cupcake pictures.  Before we list the good games to watch here are 2 games that will satisfy your urge for carnage.

Indiana at #4 Wisconsin

Line: Wisconsin –40, Over/Under 60

#3 Oklahoma at Kansas

Line: Oklahoma –35.5, Over/Under 72.5

Here are two games where the winning team might cover the point total all by themselves.  The last time Wisconsin scored more than 60 points was last year against Northwestern (70), Indiana (83) and Austin Peay (70).  Scoring 60 at home against the Hoosiers should be no problem.

It has been a surprisingly long time since Oklahoma scored more than 72.5.  It goes all the way back to opening day of the 2007 season when they scored 79 against North Texas.  However they have scored in the mid 60s seven times since then.

Games to Watch

Despite all the crappy games this week one can actually find a solid day of good football that will have an impact on the Pick Six standings.  In order of quality:

  • #11 Michigan at #23 Michigan State (noon, ESPN)
  • #18 Arizona St at #9 Oregon (10:15, ESPN)
  • #6 Oklahoma St at #22 Texas (3:30, ABC/ESPN)
  • #20 Baylor at #21 Texas A&M (noon, FX)
  • Florida at #24 Auburn (7:00, ESPN)
    We’re all obviously going to be watching the Michigan game but keep an eye on any highlights of the Baylor-Texas A&M game.  Both of those teams will be fighting to hang on to their ranking for one more week.  After plummeting down the poll 2 weeks ago both teams had a pretty easy matchup last week that kept them around the bottom of the poll.  The loser will be unranked next week and probably for several weeks afterward.
    After the Michigan game switch over to the Oklahoma State game at Texas.  Depending on how good you think Texas actually is, this might be the Cowboys toughest game until December 3 against Oklahoma.
    Then watch the Florida-Auburn game at 7 pm.  Auburn barely stayed in the poll at #24 and Florida is the top unranked team.  The winner will probably still be in the 20-25 range but how far down the unranked teams will the loser drop?  At the same time as this game, I will also try to watch some of the Iowa-Northwestern game.  While it doesn’t affect Pick Six, it should be a pretty good game.
    Finally, watch Arizona State at Oregon playing at 10:15 eastern time until you fall asleep in front of the TV.  This has the potential to be the best game of the weekend but it also has the potential to be a blowout. 

Pick Six Week 5

Pick Six Week 5

Submitted by Jeff on October 7th, 2011 at 1:39 AM

These recaps keep coming out later and later.  Pretty soon they’ll be published after the games to watch have already been watched.  Standings are where they always are.

 

It felt like half of the AP Top 25 lost last week.  After counting, it turns out it was only 7 teams but they were all quite humiliating losses.  Last week I said that South Florida and Baylor had reached the peak of their rankings and would slide back down the rankings over the next few weeks.  Well, I was half right. USF and Baylor did reach the peak of their rankings but it was more of a crash and burn than a slow slide.  USF (and TCU) dropped out of the rankings, while Baylor dropped from 15th to 25th.

Even with all this chaos, Michigan State still didn’t climb back into the polls.  For the second straight week they are the highest “others receiving votes” team.  Auburn and Kansas State leapfrogged MSU (and many others) into the 15th and 20th place of the poll.

In the other Group D matchup Georgia convincingly beat Mississippi State to effectively end the southern MSU’s hopes of being ranked this season.  Georgia only picked up 3 votes (8 last week to 11 this week) but if they win at Tennessee and at Vanderbilt they might be right near the top of the unranked teams in time for the World’s Largest Outdoor Non-Alcoholic Cocktail Party (WLONACP).  Florida is playing at Auburn and at LSU before the WLONACP which will certainly give them another loss and more than likely two more.  So this year’s WLONACP will probably be a season-saving win for one of the teams and a season-crusher for the other.  Hopefully you didn’t pick both Georgia and Florida in your ballot.

The preseason-unranked teams are making a strong showing this week.  A season high eight teams are ranked even though we lost USF.

Ranking Team
8 Clemson
11 Texas
12 Michigan
13 Georgia Tech
19 Illinois
20 Kansas State
22 Arizona State
25 Baylor

Individual Ballot Analysis

For the first time this year the leaders have kept their place on top. I can’t say that the leaderboard stays the same because BlueMars24 and Cottonpicker are joined by Willhouse in first place with a ballot score of 92 points.  Willhouse gives up a point by picking Oklahoma instead of Alabama but gains that point back since West Virginia is one spot above Florida in Group E.  They’re all 4 points behind the perfect ballot of LSU, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, anybody, Auburn and Clemson which is worth 96 points.

The doldrums of the contest gains a third contestant whose fate fell in the running of the Skip Holtz Bulls.  All three people have 20 points earned by Oregon (17 pts) and Florida State (3 pts).  Four out of their six picks are all unranked.  If it is any consolation to them they could have done worse if they picked Texas A&M instead of Florida State.  This week’s worst possible score is a mere 19 points.

Weekly Brian Watch

Right now Brian is rising and falling with the fortunes of West Virginia.  The Mountaineers made a big leap into 16th place and Brian makes a big leap back up to 52nd place.

Judging Your Picks

After this week’s chaos a completely random ballot has dropped down to an expected value of 51 points.  The MGoBlog median and mean is still 60 points.  So if you’re above one of those scores you have at least some shred of dignity.

For those of you below 51 points here is a picture of some of the kittens a stray cat gave birth to on my porch.

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Being in the bottom half isn’t so bad big guy. I literally live in a box.

Games to Watch

Oregon is currently wiping the floor (field?) with Cal in a game that is symbolic of the majority of games this week.  Most of the ranked teams are playing a conference game against a not very good opponent.  There are a few good matchups though

  • Red River Shootout: #3 Oklahoma vs #11 Texas
  • #17 Florida at #1 LSU
  • #15 Auburn at #10 Arkansas

While not elite games, there are also a few low ranked teams that have a decent chance of getting upset by an unranked team.

  • Missouri at #20 Kansas State
  • #22 Arizona State at Utah
  • #24 Texas A&M at Texas Tech
  • Iowa State at #25 Baylor