Fan Satisfaction Index: Week 6 Results

Fan Satisfaction Index: Week 6 Results

Submitted by OneFootIn on October 11th, 2017 at 9:51 AM

Well, that happened. Pretty much all the ingredients for a massive dip in fan satisfaction were present on Saturday:

  • Heartbreaking loss to a rival who had no business being any good this year? Check.
  • Michigan favored by double-digits? Check.
  • At home, under the lights, on national television? Check.
  • Horrendous, nigh-unwatchable performance by the offense? Check.
  • Highly questionable coaching decisions and play calling? Check.
  • Mind-numbing displays of God’s anger at Michigan in the form of turnovers and bad luck? Check.
  • Sinking feeling that this portends terrible things for the future? Check.

The loss came on top of rumblings and concerns about whether this team is really ready for prime time. Had the team taken a step forward during the bye week and paddled Sparty, the narrative would have shifted decisively for the positive. Instead, the disappointing loss did just the opposite, igniting complaints about Harbaugh and likely signaling an end to the honeymoon phase of Harbaugh’s tenure in Ann Arbor. It’s amazing how quickly fans have moved the goalposts. When Harbaugh came to town no one imagined Michigan would win 10 games in his first year. This week, the same folks ready to canonize Harbaugh are questioning his coaching ability.

Figures 1 and 2 provide our first look at how the fan base feels after a loss. It ain’t pretty. According to our respondents, the loss not only felt bad in and of itself, but it also pretty much destroyed the satisfaction fans were feeling about the season up to this point. The average game satisfaction plummeted to 20.8 – down from 76.2 after the Purdue game. The season to date score averaged just a 40.5 – also down from about 76 last week.

Figure 1: MSU Game Feelz 

 

 

Figure 2: Post-State Season Feelz

The loss also appears to have undermined confidence in the future. Asked to assess Michigan’s win probability next week against Indiana, Michigan fans averaged just 66.3%, considerably lower than the 78.4% S&P had projected during the bye week (but more in line with the new Vegas spread, which is now just 5 points).

Sadly, given how bad Michigan’s offense looked, one has to assume that the 66.3% is only that high given the confidence fans still have in the defense, which acquitted itself extremely well once again. It will be interesting to see how much fan satisfaction manages to rebound when Michigan wins next week. I don’t think any of us want to see what happens if Michigan finds a way to lose to Indiana. I’m not sure numbers even go there.

 

Themes, Thoughts, and Trends

Recency Bias and Fan Satisfaction

One look at fan evaluations of the season after the State loss provides a powerful suggestion about the importance of the last game played in the fan’s mind. Fans, more than most people, seem susceptible to the “what have you done for me lately” disease. Of course, it’s also possible that rivalry games are just much more important than other games and that losing to State ruined any good vibes folks were having to this point.

So I went back to the bye week data. I ran a regression model using people’s ratings of season satisfaction so far as the dependent variable and their ratings of the first four games as the independent variables. In English, that means the result of the regression tells us how much influence each individual game had on people’s evaluation of the season.

The results were fascinating. The adjusted R2 was .49, meaning that we can explain roughly half of the variation in people’s assessments of the season by knowing their assessments of the individual games. Not bad. But the kicker was that only one variable turned out to be statistically significant: the Purdue game.

I’m not sure that says much for the mental acuity or mental health of the average fan, but it is evidence for the recency effect. My tentative conclusion at this point is that rivalry games have an outsized impact on fan assessments, but so does the last game played. And right after a rivalry game, those two factors combine to produce a massive effect on fans (And it probably explains why Brian and Ace complain so much about their Twitter feeds after games like this one).

 

The Season So Far

We riding the roller coaster now, folks. As usual, the columns represent game satisfaction; the line shows season satisfaction ratings.

Figure 3: The Season So Far, Summarized

 

Michigan Fan Satisfaction Index - Cinci Results

Michigan Fan Satisfaction Index - Cinci Results

Submitted by OneFootIn on September 13th, 2017 at 9:37 AM

The results are in. On a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 is the worst you ever felt about a game and 100 is the best you ever felt, our 93 respondents averaged a 59.9. There was a reasonable amount of variation in responses – the standard deviation was 16.5 – but the most common response was 60, with only a couple handfuls of folks straying below a 40.

In technical terms, the crowd ranked this victory somewhere around warm milk – better than losing, but not much to get excited about, especially given how sloppy and uninspired the offense and special teams looked.

Figure One Cincinnati Feelings

The hive mind is more positive about the young season – the average feeling about the season this week is a 77.2. The clustering here was tighter; the standard deviation was 10.2 the median was 80, and only one wag reported a season rating of less than 60.

This seems pretty reasonable. On the one hand, Michigan is undefeated, has what will clearly be another great defense, and appears to have a plethora of young talent emerging on offense. On the other hand, Speight’s struggles, continuing concerns about the offensive line, and the knowledge that Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State will present stern challenges probably keeps this figure from getting much higher for now.

Figure Two:  Feelings about the 2017 Season (for now)

 

Themes, Thoughts, and Trends

One of the things I’ve noticed over the years is how the tenor of board discussions often shifts after the post-game columns go up and the weekend’s full slate of games has been digested and analyzed. Translation: Brian has to talk a lot of us off the ledge when the torch and pitchfork brigades start forming, but he also uses, like, numbers and analysis, to provide a serious and thoughtful take on what’s happening.

This makes sense for many reasons. Most obviously, taking a reading of your emotional state right after a game is likely to lead to higher highs and lower lows than you would see after a few days, when logic kicks in. Secondly, as sociologists love to remind us, the interpretation of events is a collective process. We all look to others, especially experts and authorities, to help us make sense of things.

To test this hot take/cold take idea I compared the responses collected on Sunday to the responses from Monday and Tuesday. Confirming the strong emotions hypothesis, the hot take respondents recorded both the highest high for the game (100 compared to 90) and the lowest low (20 compared to 30).

The average distance between the hot and cold takes was also surprisingly large – at least to me. Sunday respondents (n = 53) averaged 57.8 for the game and 75.3 for the season, while later respondents (n = 40) averaged 62.5 for the game and 79.9 for the season. It appears that with a day or two of cooling off, the game didn’t seem as bad as it had in the immediate aftermath. It will be interesting to see if this hot/cold differential holds throughout the season and what direction it tends to take.

Figure Three: How Do You Take Your Takes?

Sadly, I didn’t do a survey last week. But I think we can all agree that the collective feelz was a lot higher than 59.8 for the Florida game and that the irrational exuberance stoked by that curb stomping would have resulted in a season rating higher than 77.2 for most of us (it would have for me, certainly). In following weeks I will start reporting game-by-game comparisons and seasonal trends.

 

Jumping the Shark: Why the MGoBoard is Unreadable

Jumping the Shark: Why the MGoBoard is Unreadable

Submitted by CooperLily21 on November 4th, 2013 at 10:23 AM

Everyone has their own special moments.  You know, the moment the light bulb goes on and you say to yourself:  "Self, the Board is absolutely unreadable now."

My special moment occurred yesterday morning when I just couldn't stop myself from checking the Board (dumb, I know).  My instant reaction?

 

YEEEEEHAW!  Doom, death, despair, Ignorance, insults, opinions galore! 

(I know, I know.  Cool story bro.  But I'm getting there.)

Tell me, MGoPeoples, when was your "Jump the Shark" moment?  Did it happen back during the post-Carr coaching search days?  The Fire Rodriguez days?  The Fire Borges days?  After Akron?  After UConn?  After Penn State?  This weekend?

 

Disclaimer:  This is not to say that we will never visit the board.  Its simply an open discussion so people can see why some regulars stop visiting the Board and adjust accordingly.  And for those of you that say "Good, stop reading. You're a douche bag anyway," I say "Fine, I will!"

 

OT (??) - Prohibition on Coaching Change Posts Act of 2010

OT (??) - Prohibition on Coaching Change Posts Act of 2010

Submitted by profitgoblue on December 1st, 2010 at 10:53 AM

For those of you that have been waiting, below is an official copy of the Prohibition on Coaching Change Posts Act of 2010.  For those of you that are predisposed to comply with the terms of the Act, I suggest printing the below and posting it in your cubicle, office, dorm room, or some other location where it can easily be referenced.  This act was codified on November 30, 2010 but is always subject to further revision.  Please let me know if you see any glaring issues that need to be addressed.  Thank you in advance.

 

The Prohibition on Coaching Change Posts Act of 2010.


Article 1 - Notices

(a)  Notices of MGoInfraction shall be "filed" by Profitgoblue as soon as practicable after a violation of this Act.

(b)  Notices shall be in writing and shall specifically (i) explain the violation, (ii) inform the offender of the fine levied, and (iii) inform the offender of their opportunity for appeal.

 

Article 2- Infractions, Defined

(a) Thou shalt not, under any circumstances, discuss Jim Harbaugh in connection with the Michigan head coaching job unless and until Rich Rodriguez has officially been relieved of his current contractual obligations.

(b)  Thou shalt not, under any circumstances, lobby for or otherwise argue in support of the firing of Rich Rodriguez until at least the end of 2011.

(c)  Thou shalt not, under any circumstances, speculate, opine, or otherwise comment on Dave Brandon's decision timeframe with respect to the head coaching and/or defensive coordinator job(s).

(d)  Thou shalt not, under any circumstances, post a personal opinion with respect to whether or not Rich Rodriguez will be fired.

(e)  Catch-all provision - additional infractions can be identified at a later date by Profitgoblue in his sole discretion.

 

Article 3- Penalties

(a)  All violations shall carry a minimum fine of 1 MGoPoint, issued by Profitgoblue, with a maximum fine to be determined by the MGoCommunity at large.

(b)  Fines are subject to waivers as more fully described below.

 

Article 4- Waivers

(a)  Waivers of Application of the Act - posts that would otherwise be deemed violations of the Act can be excused by formal, written waiver issued by Profitgoblue in his sole discretion.

(b)  Waivers of Levy of Penalty - posts that are deemed violations of the Act shall be cited by penalties can be excused by formal, written waiver issued by Profitgoblue.

 

Article 5- Appeals

(a)  All MGoInfractions will be final determinations unless a formal, written appeal is "filed" within twenty-four (24) hours of the initial notice of the infraction.

(b)  All appeals must be "file" by posting a reply to the initial Notice.

(c)  The merits of all properly-filed appeals, as well as all amicus briefs filed on the offender's behalf, will be considered by Profitgoblue in his sole discretion. 

(d)  If successful on appeal, the MGoPoints deducted by Profitgoblue will be restored.

(e)  If unsuccessful on appeal, the MGoPoints deducted by Profitgoblue will be lost forever.  However, a mandatory restoration of MGoPoints shall occur if the ruling on appeal is sufficiently negged.

It's that time again, PREDICTIONS

It's that time again, PREDICTIONS

Submitted by TwoFitty on July 28th, 2009 at 12:57 PM
Well, I'll try to take off the maize n blue glasses here. I'm looking for a big turnaround of secondyearwvuesque proportions. But we'll see how the schedule stacks up to the challenge.

Western Michigan- 24
Michigan- 31

This game will be tougher than expected, but there's no way I'll predict a loss to a MAC team.


Notre Dame- 14
Michigan- 35

I know I know, I'm going out on a limb on this one, but we should have had this one last year and I think we'll put on a show here.


Eastern Michigan- 7
Michigan- 45

I'll be at this game, let's hope I'm right.


Indiana- 27
Michigan- 31

We won't lose to Indiana! well..... hopefully not. 4-0? I like the sound of that.


Michigan State- 20
Michigan- 28

Those glasses seem to be coming back on....


Iowa- 31
Michigan- 21

Iowa will be tough, We'll be coming off a big win, I see us dropping this one.


Delaware State- 6
Michigan- 63

It could happen, or it could be Appy State.


Penn State- 21
Michigan- 10

A defensive battle, that we lose. It'll take another year until WE OWN PENN STATE again.


Illinois- 35
Michigan- 31

We come a lot closer, still just short.

Purdue- 14
Michigan- 35

Little payback for last year, HE PITCHED IT IDIOT!!!!! arrrrgggghhhhh


Wisconsin- 31
Michigan- 24

Now they get a little payback.

The big one:
Ohio State- 13
Michigan- 42

Do I believe it? Maybe not, but really how could I predict a loss here? I won't do it.

So 8-4, Bowl Game undecided. We win it and it's secondyearwvuesque. can I coin that phrase?

Go Blue!!! let's hear some thoughts.