When it rains, it pours (Upchurch / MGoBlog)

Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column

Table of Contents:

1. Week III Results
2. Post-Week III Standings
3. Team of the Week: Iowa
4. Player of the Week: D’Angelo Russell
5. Stat of the Week: Youth and Success
6. Various B1G Thoughts
7. Michigan’s Week That Was
8. IT’S TIME TO PANIC
9. Week IV Schedule
10. Some Personal News

1. Week III Results

There weren’t any true upsets this week, as the conference race is starting to take shape. Indiana staved off a challenge from Penn State and notched a nice road win against Illinois (without Rayvonte Rice); Illinois defeated Northwestern in Evanston, Purdue had a miraculous sequence at the end of regulation to win against PSU in Happy Valley, and Iowa failed to choke away a game against rival Minnesota in the Barn – those were the only road wins, none of which could really be considered upsets.

Maryland and Ohio State each had impressive home blowouts, over Michigan St. and Michigan, respectively. Other than that, there wasn’t much of note in terms of on-court results – everything more or less went as expected, to a large extent.

2. Post-Week III Big Ten Standings

Even though Maryland has one more win than Wisconsin (due to scheduling), the Badgers are still the class of the conference from an efficiency standpoint, even though they haven’t faced any legitimate challengers yet. The Terps are a weird team – they have the 9th-best offensive efficiency and best defensive efficiency in conference play.

From there, the race is still indistinct. Iowa finally shook off their late-game demons after squandering a lead at Minnesota, only to win on a late Jarrod Uthoff jumper, and held off Ohio State at home; Indiana still has a negative efficiency margin, remarkably – that blowout loss in East Lansing has overshadowed an otherwise decent start to Big Ten play; Michigan State’s schedule will start to get easier from here on out; Michigan is assuredly out of the race after Caris LeVert’s injury.

One other thing: Poor Damn Minnesota. They have a very disappointing 1-5 record, but the Gophers are only four points worse than their opponents over 100 possessions. I’m not sure if I’m crazy for thinking this, but I don’t think it’s over for them quite yet.

Click on image to enlarge. Data’s starting to fill in a little bit.

3. Team of the Week: Iowa

The moment when Iowa purged its late-game demons (source)

Though Maryland is currently atop the standings and Wisconsin – the clear frontrunner for the conference title – has an excellent efficiency margin, it might be time to seriously consider Iowa as a potential challenger. They’ve rightfully received plenty of attention for their chronic propensity to blow leads in the second half; they’re still one of the better teams in the country, when they’re at their best.

Minnesota erased a 17-point second-half deficit and took a two possession lead late in the game, only for some unfortunate missed front-ends and clutch baskets from Jarrod Uthoff to enable Iowa to steal the game late. It’s hard to assess whether Iowa’s late-game struggles over the past two seasons are an inherent problem – the analytically-inclined would be more likely to ascribe simple bad luck as the root cause, but at a certain point, it’s harder to explain away. Regardless, the win over Minnesota is a nice sign. Iowa’s still not exactly a team that exudes reliability, but a 4-1 start is undoubtedly positive.

After this week, they’ve swept Ohio State – remarkably, the Buckeyes are now two games out of first place after three weeks of conference play. Iowa’s win this past weekend showed off their capabilities when they’re playing particularly well: they attacked the basket well and got to the free throw line a lot (and converted there); they forced the Buckeyes into an uncharacteristic 16-42 (38%) from two-point range; they managed to overcome a herculean performance for D’Angelo Russell and a mini-run early in the second half that could have led to another backbreaking comeback against the Hawkeyes.

It’s still a little tough to trust Iowa, but the Hawkeyes have generally been playing good basketball this season – an insane barrage of threes from Michigan State notwithstanding. The Hawkeyes might be a step below Maryland and Wisconsin, but they should receive plenty of attention – they might be the best team behind those two.

Previously – Maryland (Week I), Rutgers (Week II)

[HIT THE JUMP for the rest of the article / lamentations on our bad luck]

RUTGERS BEAT WISCONSIN. SERIOUSLY. THEY DID. (source)

Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column

Weren’t any Big Ten basketball games last night, so I bumped this column to Tuesday.

Table of Contents

1. Week II Results
2. Post-Week II Big Ten Standings
3. Team of the Week: Rutgers
4. Player of the Week: Travis Trice
5. Stat of the Week: League-Wide Efficiency
6. Game Recap Graphics
7. Various Thoughts
8. Michigan’s Week That Was
9. Michigan’s Week Ahead
10. Week III Schedule

1. Week II Results

Home teams held serve most of the week – only Michigan (over Penn St.), Ohio St. (over Minnesota in overtime), Michigan St. (over Iowa), and Maryland (over Purdue) managed to get an elusive Big Ten road win and, to be fair, most of those came against lower-half teams. MSU’s win over Iowa was particularly impressive: after trailing 39-28 at halftime, they hit eight three-pointers to outscore the Hawkeyes 47-20 in the second stanza.

Ohio State played the two closest games of the week, both on the road: the Buckeyes managed to beat Minnesota in overtime by two points and lost to Indiana by three. Minnesota had another close loss – to Michigan – later in the week. Michigan State was perhaps the most impressive team of the week: they destroyed Indiana and eventually pulled away to win comfortably at Iowa.

More on Rutgers’s shocking upset over Wisconsin a little bit later.

2. Post-Week II Big Ten Standings

After two weeks, there are four teams tied for first place (and six tied for first place in the loss column). Maryland has the worst efficiency margin of the top four, but they have won two games on the road (against Michigan State and Purdue). Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan are all fairly comparable from an efficiency standpoint, though the Spartans probably have played the toughest schedule thus far.

The conference race is still far from any clarity. Wisconsin’s loss sets them back with the rest of the teams chasing and 10 of the league’s 14 teams are within a game of first place.

Click on image to enlarge

3. Team of the Week: Rutgers

Didn’t take long for Rutgers to ring up its first signature Big Ten win (source)

A few nights ago, I decided to brave the cold and head out to our favorite undergraduate library to play school for a little while. “The only Big Ten game on right now is Rutgers – Wisconsin,” I thought. “Even though Frank Kaminsky’s out, what could possibly happen?”

RUTGERS BEAT WISCONSIN.

With due apologies to Michigan State, who probably had the best week of any Big Ten team, Rutgers deserves mention for pulling what will probably stand as the biggest upset in Big Ten play this year – what very well may be the worst team in the league beating what’s likely the best. Yes, Kaminsky sat out of the game with concussion-like symptoms and yes, Traevon Jackson exited the game because of a leg injury that will keep him sidelined for a while.

Regardless of all that, it was an impressive showing for the Scarlet Knights: Kadeem Jack and Myles Mack each scored at least 20 points and, as a team, Rutgers posted a gaudy 1.20 points per possession. Despite the injuries to Kaminsky and Jackson, Wisconsin’s offense actually did alright (1.10 points per possession, at least a dozen points from each of Nigel Hayes, Sam Dekker, and Bronson Koenig), but the Badgers’ heretofore excellent defense was exposed. Rutgers shot 20-35 (57%)  from two, so it wasn’t as if this were some anomalous barrage of three-pointers.

Besides Duke’s barrage of three-pointers earlier this season, this was Wisconsin’s worst defensive outing on the season. It was Rutgers’s best offensive game. Since I didn’t see the game, it’s hard to make any declarative statements, so here’s this solid recap from B5Q. As they note, Rutgers did trail by 12 at halftime, but 67% shooting (with four made threes) in the second half was enough to carry them to a win.

The homework that I did on that Sunday evening was due today and the professor bumped it back to Thursday… definitely could have waited on that in order to watch one of the most bizarre Big Ten games we’ll see this season.

Rutgers also lost to Nebraska by 16 on the road this past week, but that’s neither here nor there (I guess).

Previously: Maryland (Week I).

[After THE JUMP – the rest]

He made it, and Maryland won the game (source)

Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column

Table of Contents:

1. Week I results
2. Introducing the Big Ten Schedule Matrix
3. Team of the week: Maryland
4. Player of the week: Jarrod Uthoff
5. Stat of the week: Melo’s free throw parade
6. Miscellaneous
7. Post-Week I Big Ten standings
8. Michigan’s week that was
9. Michigan’s week ahead
10. Week II schedule

1. Week I Results

After the first week of Big Ten play, there’s a little more clarity. Wisconsin dispatched Penn State and Northwestern with ease in what were the two biggest blowouts of the week. Maryland managed a double-overtime win in East Lansing over Michigan State – even if it isn’t a vintage Spartan team, it’s still a very impressive Big Ten debut for UMD – and Iowa came away with a road upset over Ohio State in two of the more notable results of the week.

Elsewhere, Purdue defended its home court with back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Michigan; Penn State lost two on the road (including an ugly game against Rutgers at the RAC – Rutgers had lost a similarly hideous contest earlier in the week to Northwestern) and tripled their loss total on the year in the process; Illinois also lost both games of a tough road swing against Michigan and Ohio State – they let the one in Ann Arbor slip away; Minnesota started their season on a two-game road trip and lost both, to Purdue and Maryland.

At the end of the week, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Purdue are the only teams sitting at 2-0. The newcomers have been the most impressive, as Wisconsin faced weak opponents, and Purdue held serve at home.

2. Introducing the Big Ten Schedule Matrix

Over the weekend, I threw together a handy way to visualize which teams only play an opponent only once this season, when two opponents play each other at a give location, and how a team does at home or on the road, among other things.

As the season progresses, the graphic will become much more informative, but it’s a convenient reference point and will be a weekly fixture in this space.

Click on image to enlarge

3. Team of the week: Maryland

Winning at the Brez isn’t easy; Maryland did it on their first try (source)

With apologies to Wisconsin – who overwhelmed two far inferior opponents and posted the week’s two highest points per possession totals – Maryland deserves this spot after winning in East Lansing and holding off Minnesota at home.

The game against Michigan State was a slog. From the 15-minute mark to the 5-minute mark in the second first half, the Terrapins outscored the Spartans 4-2, concurrently one of the roughest offensive stretches that either team will see all season; MSU recovered to lead 17-14 at halftime (the aggregate score of the two overtimes – in ten minutes – was 20-18, Maryland).

Aside from that, it was a surprisingly great, back-and-forth game that featured a few amazing plays from Maryland senior Dez Wells, who hit a last-second, game-tying three pointer at the end of regulation and had a beautiful steal and breakaway dunk in the second OT (both highlights in this video). There were enough high-leverage plays near the end of regulation and in both overtimes – enough to make up for the brutal first half and the teams’ combined jump-shooting (0.54 points per shot on 84 attempts) – to make it a good game, in the end.

Dez Wells and Melo Trimble is looking like the conference’s best backcourt: key plays from Wells and nine made free throws from Trimble helped steal the win against Michigan State, and the duo combined for 32 points in the game against Minnesota. Most impressive against the Terrapins was Damonte Dodd: in 20 minutes, the big man scored an efficient nine points, hauled in 12 rebounds, and had 3 blocks. The Terps opened up a 11-2 run to open the second half and pull away from the Gophers on Saturday.

Right now, Maryland looks like Wisconsin’s best challenger. They don’t travel to Madison and they’re currently projected to finish 13-5 in the league by Kenpom’s algorithm (though Wisconsin, incredibly, is projected to finish 16-2). UMD is balanced – 30th offensively, 25th defensively, per KP – and although their defense may regress some due to their untenably outstanding 3-point defense, they’ll be a tough out for anyone in their first year in the Big Ten.

[Hit the JUMP for No. 4-10]