Lunardi's Espn S-curve currently has us sitting at #78 which puts us 10 out for the tournie. Minnesota's loss last night put them at #71 (3rd out). It is behind the espn paywall but I will post the story here.
The Full S-curve
* conference leader (teams)
|8-Purdue||7-San Diego State||6-Brigham Young||5-Kansas|
|24-Missouri||23-Texas A&M||22-West Virginia||21-Kentucky|
|33-Utah State||34-UCLA||35-Kansas State||36-Illinois|
|40-Alabama||39-Michigan State||38-Old Dominion||37-St. Mary's|
|48-Colorado State||47-Gonzaga||46-Boston College||45-Butler|
|49-Richmond||50-Belmont*||51-Cleveland State||52-Missouri State|
|64-Morehead State*||63-Montana||62-Long Beach||61-Kent State|
|65-Florida Atlantic||66-McNeese State||67-Texas Southern||68-Bethune Cookman|
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 75 percent or better) and you have exactly 38 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 20 spots. All told we have 58 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only 10 up for grabs among current "Bubble" teams.
"BUBBLE" (21 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-Curve order): 39-Michigan St, 40-Alabama, 41-Georgia, 42-Marquette, 43-Virginia Tech, 45-Butler, 46-Boston College, 47-Gonzaga, 48-Colorado State, 49-Richmond
OUT (11, in S-Curve order): 69-UAB, 70-Baylor, 71-Minnesota, 72-VCU, 73-Wichita State, 74-Nebraska, 75-Clemson, 76-Maryland, 77-Southern Miss, 78-Michigan, 79-Penn State
Big East (11), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Horizon League (2).
Link for those with insider access: