This will be short, mostly because this feels like yet another version of the last couple of games and because I'd rather not be up until 2 a.m. again. Maryland isn't worth the hangover.
Games have been getting removed from YouTube very quickly this year. Faster than I've noticed the last few seasons so get it while you can. Also, the opening kick is missing but who cares as we had a 5 yard penalty on the return to start the game.
I'm guessing HailTV will have the game up at some point but it's not there at the time of this post.
Turtles have hard shells
Wolverines can openers
Turtle soup served hot
Maryland HC DJ Durkin was placed on administrative leave along with his S&C coach and trainer. OC Matt Canada has been named interim HC. Two head coaches in the Big Ten East are now on administrative leave.
The former Michigan DC is doing some great work recruiting. He's in the hunt for the B1G's 4th best class (behind the usual suspects--OSU, PSU, and Michigan). Noteably, he looks close to flipping a 4 star running back from USC (YTUSC).
How many wins will it take for blue bloods to take a chance on him? I don't think he's likely to win the B1G East in the next decade, but maybe consecutive 8-9 win seasons in the next few years with an upset against any one of the B1G East's top 3?
For the internet trolls who are purely concerned with crystal balls, read no further; 100% of crystal balls have Eyabi Anoma going to Alabama. However as ACE put it yesterday:
The coaches have mostly narrowed their focus to a short list of high-level prospects, including DEs Eyabi Anoma...
Michigan appears to be making a big push for him and they aren't shy about letting reporters know when asked. Echoing Ace, the freep reported yesterday that Michigan continues to make a heavy push for him. So I'm saying Michigan thinks they have a chance.
I've outlined below paraphrasing rationale for why 100% of crystal balls are saying Alabama, as well as hopefully more information on Eyabi and his situation. In any case we will all know tomorrow as he has moved up his announcement date to tomorrow at 2pm instead of Friday.
Essentially from what I can gather the crystal ball calls have been made for the below reasons:
1) Eyabi has visited Alabama four times, the most of any school, and is their top DE recruit of the year. He lists only Alabama, Michigan and Maryland as his top choices.
2) Sam Poggi, one of his current coaches has ties to Alabama (suspend your knowledge of the Michigan connections for a moment).
3) It makes a pretty trend; Eyabi would be the second five star DE recruit out of the North East to go to Alabama recently, after Terrell Hall (he changed his name to Terrell Lewis ) (suspend your knowledge, this time of Rashan Gary).
4) Most importantly, Eyabi is looking for two things that Alabama can provide- Training to get him to the NFL and a winning schedule. In the words of his own head coach:
Alabama does a great job of getting guys to the NFL and putting their players in position to succeed. Coach Saban runs a great program. You have the academic support in place. All of the little things are taken care of in that program. Eyabi is also super competitive and hates losing. Alabama is that type of team. They don’t lose much. He thrives in those types of environments. I think that’s why he’s very attracted to what they offer.
However this is far from a normal recruit, and the predictions on this guy deserve a second pass.
I've compiled what I hope is a better understanding of Eyabi and his decision process.
Eyabi has played football for eighteen months at this level, and had been focusing his high school career on playing basketball prior to transferring to St. Francis as a Junior. However having seen him up close and in action I'd say that his frame is too big to play the kind of basketball he does, though he could easily put on more weight as a DE. His assistant coach is none other than Sam Poggi who hopefully needs no introduction. In Poggi's own words:
He's the best player I've ever coached
Michigan first became aware of him at a satillite camp Harbaugh attended in the summer of 2016 as he was preparing to start playing for St. Francis. In his Michigan interactions he attended the summer BBQ, the MSU game, watched the Maryland game, and took his official for the OSU game. He has indicated that he's looking for two things out of a program. First, he's looking for a school that can really challenge him to be a better defensive player.
So when I go up (to Michigan) I want to see how they coach. Are they aggressive? Are they conservative? Are they (relaxed) or are they on me? I want my coach to be consistently on me. If I’m going to do something wrong, yell at me. I take criticism pretty well when it comes to football, so I want that. I don’t want nothing given to me. I don’t want no promises. As long as that happens, I think that will be a good visit.
The second thing he is concerned about is getting to stay close to his sister Amiya who is also a senior (though they are not twins). He's the only boy in the middle of six sisters, so that should tell you all you need to know about his ability to thrive under constructive criticism. Amiya is looking at schools also, and they really want to compete together athletically at the next level. As a junior she was a state champ for track and field and also set the all time state record for the triple jump. In an interview with 247 Eyobi talked about the competitive nature between himself and his almost twin, and it doesn't seem like getting in together somewhere will be an issue.
(We) have many of the same scholarship offers and talk about attending the same school.
As far as what Amiya wants, academic wise the choice between Alabama and Michigan is fairly clear. While the SEC (to a lesser extent Alabama) has been a traditional powerhouse of women's Track and Field, Michigan just completed a state of the art track and field facility and roped in a very competitive 2017 recruiting class as a result. Amiya would be hard pressed not to consider Michigan if that's what her brother is doing.
With his two stated considerations above, I'd agree that at one point he may have made an informal decision with his sister to attend Alabama. However there's an important timeline that bears review, a narrative of facts if you will.
The day before Eyabi made his official visit to Tuscaloosa, Alabama's Defensive Coordinator Jeremy Pruitt announced he was leaving the Tide to be Tennessee's new head coach and was taking with him one of his assistants, Brian Niedermeyer. Pruitt then began a recruiting blitz for the Vols and wasn't around helping to prepare Alabama for the Clemson game (let alone helping with recruiting for Alabama) until the beginning of this week. Consider this development with Eyabi's need for good coaching as a new player, his desire to mesh with coaches, and not even knowing who the new Alabama defensive coordinator will be.
Soon after this Eyabi posted two similar tweets in what I can only consider a shot across the bow to anyone listening.
I am not committed to any school still weighing my options
Since I live just outside D.C. I was lucky enough to catch last week’s game in person with my son. I’m pretty sure Michigan fans outnumbered Maryland fans, if not at kickoff then for sure by the second quarter after the drubbing was in full effect. It ain’t the Big House, but Maryland’s stadium is nice enough and the whole parking/getting in/getting out aspect was about as easy as I’ve ever experienced. Plus I got to sing the Victor's at a game, with actual Michigan fans, for the first time in about a decade. Overall gameday satisfaction level: high.
Harbaugh called it Michigan’s most complete performance of the season. I, on the other hand, gave it a “meh.” So, apparently, did the fan base, which gave the game a solid 73.5, which ranks fifth among Michigan’s wins, just behind Rutgers but well above Air Force, Cincinnati, and Indiana. Harbaugh is undoubtedly looking at the more important elements of the game here, but from a fan perspective the 73.5 seems fair. Michigan crushed a team they were supposed to crush, but didn’t look all that dominant for much of the game. The defense gave up more yards than expected to Maryland and its Nth-string quarterback, the offense looked good in spurts but fell short of exerting total dominance, and Quinn Nordin, #collegekicker, missed an easy one.
Figure 1. Maryland Game Satisfaction
Nor did the fans find much in the Maryland game to move the needle on their assessments of the season so far. Beating another cupcake this late in the season just isn’t going to change anyone’s opinion of the team and it isn’t going to erase the bad taste of losing to MSU and PSU. For that reason, even though it felt pretty good to thump Maryland, season satisfaction for the week checked in at 69.9, up less than a point from last week.
Figure 2. Season Satisfaction after Maryland
For the third week in a row game satisfaction outpaced season satisfaction. But one way or another Figure 3 is going to look very different next week…
Figure 3. Season Trends
Themes, Thoughts, Trends
Calibrating Our Instruments*
As good scientists it is critical that we be sure that our measurements are measuring what we think they’re measuring. In the context of our project here, we’d like to know that when Person A says a game gave them a satisfaction level of 80 that it means the same thing as when Person B gives us an 80.
Let’s take Netflix movie ratings as an example of this problem. If your family is like my family, some of you have discerning minds and impeccable taste, and rate movies accordingly, while others…do not. I, for example, give okay movies 3 stars, good or very good movies 4 stars, and I reserve 5 stars for things that are incredible. My daughter, on the other hand, hands out 5 star reviews like Halloween candy. Needless to say no one should pay any attention to our Netflix account’s overall ratings of movies. We would obviously like to avoid this problem with the fan satisfaction index.
Like Netflix, I have given very little in the way of guidance to respondents as to what they “should mean” when they answer a certain way. Other than telling them a zero is the worst and a 100 is the best, I figure your average MGoBlogger can handle scoring their satisfaction in a way that most folks will understand. We all have plenty of experience with tests that are scored from zero to 100, and most people have taken an infinite number of other surveys; there is good reason to expect that the hive mind will produce a reasonably tight consensus around what any given number means.
On the other hand, since I’ve never asked anyone to explain his/her response, I have had to assume that my interpretation of the hive mind is more or less the standard interpretation that anyone would give. But hey, I could be wrong. When I was surprised at how satisfied the fan base was about beating Rutgers, for example, I might have simply been misinterpreting what a 73.9 meant to the typical respondent. Maybe a 73.9 is really code for “adequate but not particularly invigorating victory over a crappy opponent.” If that’s the case, not only did I whiff a bit interpreting fan reactions to Rutgers, but my interpretation of other games should also be amended.
Here’s another interesting thing about trying to measure attitudes with surveys like this: most of the numbers on the scale are seriously underutilized, while a few more way overrepresented. As you can see in Figure 4, some numbers serve as something like a cognitive anchor. People are a lot more likely to answer 60, 65, or 70, than 51, 63, or 77.
Figure 4 Bumpy Data: 1875 Game Satisfaction Responses through Maryland
In fact, people are so much more likely to use certain numbers that it makes you wonder sometimes why anyone would use a 0 to 100 scale in the first place. Table 1 shows what I mean. The even numbered “primary anchors” (10, 20, 30, etc.) made 47% of all responses, the odd numbered “secondary anchors” (15, 25, 35, etc.) made up 33.5% of all responses, but the numbers adjacent to the anchors have been woefully under used. Even sadder: thirteen lonely numbers haven’t been used even once so far!
Table 1 Anchoring Effects and Survey Responses
|Anchor||% of all responses||Anchor Adjacents||% of all responses|
|10||2.61||9 & 11||0.05|
|20||2.61||19 & 21||0.1|
|30||2.4||29 & 31||0.0|
|40||3.31||39 & 41||0.05|
|50||3.73||49 & 51||0.7|
|60||4.91||59 & 61||0.16|
|70||8.37||69 & 71||0.85|
|80||11.52||79 & 81||0.7|
|90||4.59||89 & 91||0.95|
In the spirit of getting it right, then, this week is Calibration Week. In the comments, tell me what you think the numbers mean. What’s a 50 to you? What’s a 75? How did you figure out what number to use?
* Get your minds out of the gutter. This is a family friendly site.
The Road Ahead
To Wisconsin we go…time for another test of our fan satisfaction system. This could get interesting. The game is at Camp Randall, a horrendously difficult road test for any team under any conditions, and the Badgers are favored by 7.5. Wisconsin’s offense has issues, but its defense has been stifling – not a great omen given Michigan’s aggressively mediocre offense this season. And yet…I’m sensing an awful lot of hope, even maybe the stirrings of expectations that Harbaugh and Co. have been keeping their powder dry and will finally unleash the Messiah’s true firepower in Madison to lay waste to the already frozen tundra. We shall see.
How are you feeling after the Maryland game?
How are you feeling about the season now?
Take this week’s survey here: https://goo.gl/forms/O6SBrnOyceZDFScJ3
Week 10 Minnesota Results: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/fan-satisfaction-index-minnesota-results
Week 9 Rutgers Results: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/fan-satisfaction-index-rutgers-results
Week 8 Penn State Results: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/fan-satisfaction-index-penn-state-results
Week 7 Indiana Results: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/fan-satisfaction-index-indiana-results
Week 6 Michigan State Results: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/fan-satisfaction-index-week-6-results
Bye Week Musings: http://www.mgoblog.com/diaries/fan-satisfaction-index-bye-week-musings
Week 3 Results: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/fan-satisfaction-index-week-3-results
Introducing the Fan Satisfaction Index: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/michigan-fan-satisfaction-index