The morning after and the way forward

The morning after and the way forward

Submitted by The Mad Hatter on October 8th, 2017 at 8:26 AM

I, like all of you, am bitterly disappointed with the results of last night's game. Also a little hungover.

Before the season began, many of us were predicting a rebuilding year, with somewhere in the neighborhood of 2-4 losses. As great as Bo, Mo, and Lloyd were, they all had years like this. Several in fact. The thing that made those seasons tolerable was beating OSU more often than not in November.

My question is, what is the path forward? Can we salvage anything this season, or do we start playing younger guys in anticipation of the future?

I think a coaching change, or changes, needs to be made on the offensive side. Jay is not qualified to coach RB's. Drevno's game plans have been awful. I'm not sure what Pep brings to the table, but we've regressed significantly from last season. Let's hope that Harbaugh sees what we're seeing and does what needs to be done at the end of the year.

One last thing. Get well soon Wilton Speight!

Forty Years In The Bighouse - Jon Falk Shipping Update

Forty Years In The Bighouse - Jon Falk Shipping Update

Submitted by The Geek on July 24th, 2015 at 10:55 AM

MGoBloggers -- Just FYSA, I received an update from Amazon referencing Jon Falk's new book, "Forty Years.."

The new expected delivery date is now Wednesday, 29 July!

This should help subside the offseason blues, albeit briefly. I'm really looking forward to his first-hand stories and will probably fly through this by Friday the 31st. Jon Falk is a living legend.

Go Blue!

Historical Context

Historical Context

Submitted by Brady2Terrell on January 17th, 2011 at 1:39 PM

Rather than engaging in the bouts of Hokemania running wild all over this site, or joining the numerous posters who seem to have forsaken Michigan for a love of RichRod forever-more (similar to my childhood fandom of "whoever Warren Moon plays for" after playing Tecmo Super Bowl as the Oilers), I decided to examine the rich and voluminous history of Michigan football to find some historical perspective.

While I bought in at the beginning of each of the last three years and convinced myself we were "just around the corner," I was disillusioned each year as the losses mounted and the victories failed to do so.  I don't think the wins/losses did RichRod in, though - my sense from talking to other alums (and trying to track my emotional path through all of this) was that the sense of "time for a change" came less from the losses, and more from the MAGNITUDE of the losses.  With that in mind, I first sought out a list of all seasons in which Michigan has been outscored by its opponents.  There were twelve, which was actually more than I expected to find.  The seasons (with coaches in parenthesis) were:

1919 (Yost)
1928 (Wieman)
1934 (Kipke)
1935 (Kipke)
1936 (Kipke)
1937 (Kipke)
1958 (Oosterbaan)
1959 (Elliott)
1962 (Elliott)
1967 (Elliott)
2008 (Rodriguez)
2010 (Rodriguez)

This list tells me a few things.  First, having a season in which you were outscored by your opponent does not create a supportable assumption that you are a bad coach; if you remove the coaches on this list, Michigan's national championships decrease from 11 to 2.  Second, having such a season does make it likely that you will be removed from your duties of coaching football at Michigan at some point; while Yost largely retired on his own terms, there was a movement to get the old man to move on by the time he stepped down.  Wieman was gone after his bad season; while Kipke got a bit more rope because of his two national championships, his fourth led to his ouster as well.  Oosterbaan's one season being outscored coincided with his last, and then Bump got a bit more rope...because he was cleaning up Bennie's mess?  Either way, two for RichRod in three years didn't indicate a future of much success if you look at the historical numbers.

Next, I sought a way to quantify HOW MANY bad losses there had been; the three at the end of this year definitely wore on me, and so I looked at (a) how many games each head coach had lost by 10+ points each year,  and (b) how many they did so on average.  The numbers are as follows:

Coach 10-pt losses 10-pt losses per season

Yost

16 0.64
Little 1 1.00
Wieman 3 1.50
Kipke 18 2.00
Fritz 7 0.70
Bennie 18 1.64
Bump 23 2.30
Bo 11 0.52
Mo 5 1
Lloyd 13 1
RichRod 15 5

This chart was pretty striking to me; RichRod had more double-digit losses in three seasons than Lloyd had in his 13 seasons!!  Also, while the likelihood of these events increased in the Mo/Lloyd years vis-a-vis Bo, they were still well below the Bump/Bennie/Kipke mark, and not far from Crisler and Yost's marks.  Five per year more than doubled Bump Elliott, Michigan's 2nd worst coach (with regard to big losses).

Finally, I noticed that RichRod had 5, 4 and 6 double-digit losses in years 1, 2 and 3, respectively.  I sought to put those in historical context; of the 110 seasons examined, there were only seven seasons of at least four double-digit losses in a season:

Season 10-pt losses Coach
1919 4 Yost
1934 5 Kipke
1936 5 Kipke
1962 7 Elliott
2008 5 Rodriguez
2009 4 Rodriguez
2010 6 Rodriguez

When viewed through this prism, it's much tougher to make the argument that the team was "competitive" and "just around the corner" the last few years - 2010 featured the 2nd-worst set of losses we've ever seen, eclipsed only by 1962.  While improving from 3 to 5 to 7 wins seemed on its face to be "progress," the margins of victory and loss indicated otherwise - Michigan was soundly defeated in more games this year than in 2008.  Three of the worst seven seasons (by this measure) don't point in the direction of a guy that should have been kept.

While we don't know what direction the team'll take under HOKEMANIA, we do know, at least, that our new coach has a love and appreciation for the history that is Michigan Football.  Here's hoping we get fewer of these seasons and more that finish in Pasadena!

Go Blue.

Lloyd Brady on Sports by Brooks

Lloyd Brady on Sports by Brooks

Submitted by HHW on November 1st, 2010 at 1:23 PM

Lloyd Brady keeps his streak alive.  Looking bemused Saturday night in State College.  Is it possible Lloyd has given up?

http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/psu-fans-attack-man-mistaken-for-michigan-fan-29190

 

Edit: Oh yeah, some Penn State fans are idiots.  Can't they tell the difference between Maize and yellow?

Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez record versus Top 25.

Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez record versus Top 25.

Submitted by lunchboxthegoat on October 8th, 2009 at 12:09 AM






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This is a project I had wanted to do for some time but just couldn’t find the time. However, today is Wednesday the Tigers aren’t in the playoffs and for some reason we don’t have football 7 days a week yet…. Anyway, It’s a study of Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez’s records versus Top25 teams as both a Ranked and Unranked team. I simply wanted to compare numbers. I didn’t seek to make a claim for RR or for LC based on these numbers. So what follows is this study and some things that I learned in the process which was fascinating to me.

Let’s begin:


YearRecord v top25UR v top25
19953-30-0
19962-30-0
19977-00-0
19983-30-0
19995-10-0
20004-20-0
20012-20-0
20023-30-0
20035-30-0
20042-10-0
20053-22-0
20062-20-0
20073-23-0
CareerRecord v top25UR v top25

44-275-0


Clearly, Lloyd had a tremendous (thanks Lloyd) record against the top 25. A .619 winning percentage.


YearRecord v top25UR v top25
20010-30-3
20022-31-3
20032-32-2
20041-20-1
20052-11-1
20062-10-0
20074-10-0
20081-21-2
20091-01-0
CareerRecord v top25
UR v top25

15-166-12


Rich Rod doesn’t have a great record against the top 25 both as ranked and unranked. .483 winning percentage. Not terrible as a ranked opponent but pretty marginal as an unranked. It would be interesting to see what the average winning percentage is in each situation but I can’t say that I’m motivated enough to figure that out and I don’t know if there’s an easy way to figure that out.



Interesting stuff that I learned:

1. Michigan played SEVEN ranked opponents in the 1997 National Championship season. (well, co-national champ, really).

2. Nebraska only beat 4 ranked teams that year.

3. Lloyd had an impressive record when unranked versus the top 25.

4. In 2003, when Michigan may have had a case for the MNC if not for the turd they laid against USC, they played EIGHT ranked teams in a thirteen game schedule…that’s impressive.

5. The Big Ten is really, really down right now.

EDIT: No idea what that crap is at the top, I don't see it in the editor screen...Do not let it detract from my research, kthx.