Fan Satisfaction Index: Minnesota Results

Fan Satisfaction Index: Minnesota Results

Submitted by OneFootIn on November 9th, 2017 at 9:22 AM

Is beating a mediocre Minnesota team with zero offense really worth an average game satisfaction of 78.2? I mean, I love the Little Brown Jug as much as the next guy, but I think I was 10 the last time I was actually excited about seeing us win it. But the fans loved it, rating their satisfaction with the Minnesota victory higher than any other game this season except Florida.

Figure 1. Minnesota Game Satisfaction 

Last week we tried to explain the exuberant reaction to the Rutgers game as a response to the arrival of the Messiah. That line won’t fly this week, as Peters turned in a solid but decidedly un-Messiah-like performance, completing just 8 of 13 throws for 56 yards.

If you want to stick with a player-based explanation, you can point to the double-barreled running attack of Higdon and Evans, who torched Minnesota for 377 yards and multiple explosive touchdown runs. And no question, for many of us the clear improvement in the ground game has been invigorating; watching Higdon and Evans blow past Gopher defenders was fantastic.

But perhaps a more compelling explanation for fan satisfaction this week is the fact that Michigan exceeded expectations. Not only did the running game go off unexpectedly, but Michigan also beat the spread by 7 points, its greatest margin against the spread this season other than – you guessed it – Florida. As Figure 2 shows, the R-squared between performance versus expectations and game satisfaction is .79.

Figure 2. The Expectations Effect 


Buoyed by consecutive (and satisfying) wins, season satisfaction crept up another notch this week to an average of 69.1, its highest mark since the Purdue game, when satisfaction was 76.7. Like last week, game satisfaction outpaced season satisfaction – fans are still not completely over the two losses, but I’m a little surprised that the season satisfaction rebound has been so significant. It’s also interesting how tightly bunched fans’ feelings are this week – the standard deviation in season satisfaction this week was just 11.6.

Figure 3. Season Satisfaction after Minnesota

Themes, Thoughts, Trends

Another week, another bullet in the data chamber, and the seasonal trend lines get another tick longer. So far game satisfaction has averaged 69.2 across the 7 wins, and a meagerly 22.4 for the two losses.

Figure 4: The Season So Far

The Road Ahead

As Maryland continues to shed quarterbacks, Vegas has pegged Michigan a 15 or 16-point favorite over the poor Terps. It should be another chance for the running backs to go ham and hopefully Brandon Peters gets a few more live-fire opportunities to prove he is the Anointed One. An upset on the road would undoubtedly send satisfaction plummeting. Another hamblasting should see season satisfaction sneak even further up before the next real test in Madison.








Who missed the last 20 seconds of Minnesota NEGBANG

Who missed the last 20 seconds of Minnesota NEGBANG

Submitted by MGoGrendel on November 1st, 2015 at 11:31 AM

The State of our Threads just got posted, but it does not contain at least one, loud, F-bomb eminating from my family room last night.  With the last 7 years of roller coaster expectations and thundering disappointment from what used to be our football team, I turned off the game and threw down the remote after the Minnesota “touchdown”.  I went to bed mad - like so many times before.

Then I wake up to the Seth’s write up, the two (!) POSBANGS, multiple replay videos, and this:


Great win for the team and a building block for their progression.  It’s fantastic that we got the Jug back!

Shame on me for doubting.  Who else missed the end -- on purpose?  Post your confession and take your down votes!


MVictors: Jug myths, 1909-1925

MVictors: Jug myths, 1909-1925

Submitted by justingoblue on October 31st, 2015 at 2:55 PM

This Michigan Daily quote from 1920 is probably the craziest.

The jug had gained a place in the hearts of the Michigan players and rooters that could not be replaced. It was…the rabbit’s foot and the seven or eleven point combination. Its loss was irreparable and its presence in the hands of the enemy was a calamity.

Plenty of other great Jug content, linked at the bottom of this piece.

The Little Brown Jug: The Book

The Little Brown Jug: The Book

Submitted by Everyone Murders on September 25th, 2014 at 11:36 AM

Michigan Today has put up an ARTICLE on the history of college football's oldest and best rivalry trophy.  The main event is a picture gallery that's worth your time to view.  The article notes that there is a new BOOK on the historic rivalry, along with a link to an interview with the AUTHORS of that book the Michigan Today published last week.  It's been a tough season so far boys - let's keep that jug in Ann Arbor where it belongs!

The Jug in 1922, along with a Wisconsin megaphone that was a spoil of war for the Wolverines that year.  Coach Yost returned it to Wisconsin, because unlike Minnesota, our team doesn't steal stuff.

Brown jug with case

Brown Jug Kickstarter Question - MGoPatio?

Brown Jug Kickstarter Question - MGoPatio?

Submitted by jcgary on February 18th, 2014 at 4:16 PM

Back in the fall there was a kickstarter campaign for John Falk's Little Brown Jug party at MGoPatio.  Has anyone that chose to receive a plain replica jug received it yet?  The campaign said that we should see it sometime in December but I haven't received mine yet.  

Just wondering if others have the same issue and if you have been given any kind of update.    

Talk About Your First Time.....At A Michigan vs. Minnesota Game

Talk About Your First Time.....At A Michigan vs. Minnesota Game

Submitted by saveferris on October 2nd, 2013 at 12:46 PM

While most Michigan / Minnesota games are pretty unmemorable, we all probably remember our first time.  Unfortunately for me, the first Michigan vs. Minnesota game I saw live and in person was 1986.  Coming into this game, Michigan was 9-0 and ranked 2nd in the country and looking like a serious contender for the MNC with only two games remaining in the regular season.

We were lead by seniors Jim Harbaugh, Garland Rivers, John Elliot, and Andy Moeller; as well as featuring running back-great Jaime Morris.  This was a great Michigan football team, which pooped the bed with 5 turnovers and letting QB Ricky Foggie scramble late for 31 yards to allow Chip Lohmiller a chip shot field goal to win it with time expiring, 20-17.

In 1986, I was a young teenager who was just starting to get seriously invested in Michigan football, and the Minnesota game was my first soul-crushing dong punch I ever suffered in Michigan Stadium.

Sorry to start this off on a downer, but I'm sure the rest of us have much happier tales to tell.

10 year-anniversary of "Miracle at the Metrodome"

10 year-anniversary of "Miracle at the Metrodome"

Submitted by The Geek on October 1st, 2013 at 7:49 PM

Hoping to spark some friendly conversation reflecting on the incredible comeback in 2003 at Minnesota. Chris Perry, Braylon Edwards, John Navarre and Marion Barber, this game was a classic. 

Thanks to WolverineHistorian for the video. I remember myself capitulating to Minnesota (out loud) several times that afternoon...

Little Brown Jug on Kickstarter (HIWTJI) close

Little Brown Jug on Kickstarter (HIWTJI) close

Submitted by MGoPatio on September 17th, 2013 at 1:26 PM

Honor a true Michigan Man. After 40 years on the Michigan team, Equipment Manager and Keeper of the Little Brown Jug Jon Falk will retire at the end of this season. There's a Kickstarter campaign to throw him a little party, but also to produce some cool LBJ swag. You can even take home a replica of The Jug that is closer to the real thing than you'll ever find again...or be able to produce on your own (without direct access to the original).

The project is just a few backers away from reaching the funding goal (it's an all-or-nothing deal and it's...oh, so close). A whopping 37% of curent backers came from the MGoBlog site. If you haven't seen it yet, maybe you'll help out with a $4 contribution to get your name on Jon's thank-you card. Or you can get a Red Wing Pottery (makers of the original LBJ) one or two gallon commemorative beehive and produce a Little Brown Jug for your own Michigan collection.

Please help the project finish strong!

Giving away 48-yard line Akron tix

Giving away 48-yard line Akron tix

Submitted by MGoPatio on September 13th, 2013 at 12:14 PM

Yes, I'm giving away 48-yard line seats for the Akron game. Yes, there's a catch...but it's not that bad.

There's a Kickstarter project based on the Little Brown Jug and Jon Falk's retirement at the end of this season. It needs your help. If you help, you might sit in some awesome seats for the game tomorrow! The seats are few rows below the point of the Block-M and a few rows above the tunnel entrance.

Here's how it works: back the KS project at any level. There are 20 backers right now. Help me get that to 75 backers by 7:00pm today and a pair of tickets go to a randomly drawn name (I'll message the name drawn to see if they come from the MGoBlog site). If the backer level hits 150, I'll award two pairs of tickets. OR...if you can reliably convince me that you are responsible for signing up a significant number of pledges on your own, I'll give you the second pair. (Send something out to your Twitter followers or Facebook friends. Get them to help too.)

THIS IS NOT A SWEEPSTAKES OR RAFFLE! You can back the project because you respect Jon Falk's 40 years of service (Big Jon is the primary beneficiary of the effort), not because of the risk/reward balance. I'll give away some seats because I respect the Michigan fan community. That is all.

Here's that link again:

Please...go help and GO BLUE!

MGoBeer: Part II

MGoBeer: Part II

Submitted by MGoPatio on September 10th, 2013 at 4:00 PM

First off, a huge THANK YOU to the MGoBlog community for coming together to support the Marlin Jackson Fight for Life foundation. I didn't get the final numbers, but it looked like the contribution$ were significant. 

Thank you also for being part of a wonderful gathering. The group that attended at MGoPatio was true blue...and from a homeowner's perspective, the best sort of crowd to have in the back yard. It looked like everyone had a good time and I appreciate the fact that there was very little cleanup to do when it was over.. 

You were all terrific. I really look forward to hosting again sometime. I'll talk to Brian and Seth about another date, maybe as early as Homecoming. I've already got something planned for that week and weekend. If things work out, we can have the MGoGang back again. How about it?

To that end, I'd like to take this opportunity to answer a few question I've received about a Kickstarter project with the MGoPatio name on it. It's all about Jon Falk and the Little Brown Jug. MGoPatio and a few other people are organizing a thank-you for the retiring equipment manager, the de facto Keeper of the Jug for the past 40 years. We've even teamed up with Redf Wing Pottery, the maker of the original LBJ, to produce a series of commemorative jugs (albeit in smaller sizes than the classic crock).

Would you PLEASE take an opportunity to contribute even a small amount to honor Big Jon and make it possible for us to present him with a gathering of like-minded friedns and well as his own commemorative jug.

For the cost of a Big Mac, you can get your name on the oversized thank-you card we'll give to Jon at a reception in his honor. You can also pick up a specially desiged decal, t-shirt, your own RW jug, or host your own MGoPatio event on Homecoming Saturday. Last, and certainly not least, you can claim...

...your own full-sized Little Brown Jug reproduced in painstaking detail by Jil Gordon, the official painter of The Jug, on a hundred-year-old five gallon Red Wing beehive jug we hunted down for the occasion.

Most of the money coming in will pay for the rewards going back out, but a little off the top will fund Jon's event. There's even a little room for a few KS backers to attend the shindig here at MGoPatio. Those joining the invitation-only crowd will enjoy rubbing elbows with members of Jon's football family. I can't name names, but you'd recognize many of them.

So, would you help out? Visit the Kickstarter project page and drop a symbolic $4 (for Jon's 40 years) in the collection. Think of it as a deposit on the beer for the next MGoPatio event.

Thanks for taking the time and, hopefully, for spreading the word about the project.