J.T. Floyd's 2011 To-Do List, a review

J.T. Floyd's 2011 To-Do List, a review

Submitted by Seth on May 8th, 2012 at 5:36 PM

I looked all this up while putting together the CB section of Hail to the Victors but coulnd't fit it in there. It's not enough for its own Museday (and the great JT Floyd's phoenix year has been covered in detail already) but I wanted to at least have it out there.

Checklist of NFL receivers Floyd was primarily responsible for covering in 2011:

Receiver 2011 Team NFL Team Rnd-Overall Catches Yards TDs
Michael Floyd ND Cardinals 1-13 13 159 0
A.J. Jenkins Illini 49ers 1-30 4 103 0
DeVier Posey OSU Texans 5-68 3 58 1
B.J. Cunningham MSU Dolphins 6-183 4 39 0
Marvin McNutt Iowa Eagles 6-194 9 101 0
Jeremy Ebert NW Patriots 7-235 11 86 0
Jordan White WMU Jets 7-244 12 119 0
*******Total******* -   - 56 665 1
*****Average****** -   - 8.0 95.0 0.1

*VT's Danny Coale and MSU's Keyshawn Martin were also drafted this year, but Floyd was primarily covering Jarrett Boykin and BJ Cunningham, respectively, in those games. Boykin had 4 catches for 30 yards and 0 TD; he went undrafted and unsigned.

One TD all year, versus two INTs and that Illinois game where Jenkins got most of his yards on one play late but was otherwise Woodson'ed by JT Floyd. J.T. FLOYD! The one touchdown he surrendered all year was when Posey flashed by him then totally beat Woolfolk on that throw by Miller off his back foot that you thought "that's bound to be intercepted-- you can't throw the ball like that" until suddenly it was perfectly settling into a non-slowed Posey and you were like ARRGHHH I HATE YOU TROY SMITH!!!! Argh i hate you so much Troy Smith to Anthony Gonzalez. Go shoot fadeaway jumpes in the NBA or something.

Brady Hoke Presser

Brady Hoke Presser

Submitted by MGoShoe on January 1st, 2012 at 6:07 PM

These are all from Kyle Meinke's (A2.com) Twitter feed.

  • Hoke was surprisingly revealing today. He typically clamps down on info as game day approaches, esp. on players gaining/losing starting jobs:
    • Will Heininger "probably" won't play in the Sugar Bowl.
    • Will Hagerup has held off Matt Wile, will start at punter.
    • Thomas Gordon will start at free safety. Troy Woolfolk also is expected to see time.
    • Should a long field goal be attempted, freshman Matt Wile, not Brendan Gibbons, would be the guy.
    • J.T. Floyd joined Denard Robinson in submitting paperwork to the NFL draft advisory board. Hoke expects him to be back.
  • Denard used to get too hyped before games, a problem he's mostly solved by listening to slower music like R&B during pregames.
  • "Spent my New Year's Eve watching Arrested Development in my hotel room." -- Denard Robinson, showing off his superior taste in TV. [Maize and Bluth]

 

 

Michigan coach Brady Hoke provides updates on the team leading up to the Allstate Sugar Bowl.

Hoke for Tomorrow Wants Some Gravy

Hoke for Tomorrow Wants Some Gravy

Submitted by Lordfoul on November 13th, 2011 at 10:17 AM

 

“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” 
Albert Einstein

 

Learn from yesterday...

Common sense tells us that facing a team coming off of a bye week should be a disadvantage.  Give a good coach 2 weeks to prepare for a game and they will have their team refreshed and focused, ready to take advantage of what their next opponent gives them.  Mark Dantonio had the Spartans ready to exploit Michigan's flaws and that preparedness (plus a bit of dirty play) allowed Michigan State to dominate us. Brady Hoke used Michigan's bye week to effectively put the loss to Little Brother in the rearview and had the Wolverines ready to put Purdue away in style.  When Miles faced Saban after each had a bye week the result was one of the most epic battles I have ever seen.  This is what good coaching can do with a bye week advantage.

Ron Zook is a bad coach, this is known.  It is remarkable how bad he is though, when looking at his record after bye weeks.  Over the past 4 seasons (2008-2011) Illinois has had 6(!) bye weeks, with two in both 2009 and 2010.  Their record following these bye weeks?  0-6:

 

2008: Lost to Penn St 38-24

2009: Lost to OSU 30-0, Lost to Cincinnati 49-36

2010: Lost to OSU 24-13, Lost to Fresno St 25-23

2011: Lost to Michigan (woot!)  31-14

 

That is epic fail.  Ron Zook should be fired.

It was a very satisfying win for Michigan however.  Yes, the lack of redzone efficiency kept the game interesting for far too long.  This just magnified how much better this defense is than anything we could have reasonably expected.  The zone blitzing destroyed Illinois.  The run defense was smothering.  Even the prevent defense worked almost to perfection, with Illinois needing almost 7 minutes to score when they were down 3 scores with 10 minutes to go.  They kept plays in front of them, tackled in-bounds, and strangled the game.  Giving up the 4th-26 was painful, but by that point it was forgivable.  Greg Mattison has done better than anyone could have expected.

 

Live for Today…

Several players/coaches should take particular pride in their accomplishments yesterday:

  1. Greg Mattison - Seriously, can we get this guy a raise?  I know he already makes a lot of dough, but he has earned it and then some.  This defense makes such incredible leaps forward with each game... just remarkable.
  2. Fitz Toussaint - Got his swagger back right out of the gate.  Get this guy a tear-away jersey and he would have had 250 yards.  It makes so much more seem possible when a top running back steps forward.
  3. Devin Gardner - Looked much less lost out there.  Clutch TD throw on 3rd and long really put the game away.  Still needs work, but perhaps the future is looking up for DG.
  4. JT Floyd - Beautiful anticipation on the interception that kept Illinois from making a comeback.  Played well against Jenkins, really taking away the Illini's best weapon for most of the game.
  5. Jeremy Gallon - Great job on punt returns.  Really helped Michigan flip the field position in their favor.

Also of note:  Martavious Odoms nice TD grab, Denard Robinson 2 TD runs, RVB 2.5 sacks, Desmond Morgan blowing up fools, Mike Martin is Mike Martin

 

Hope for Tomorrow

Michigan comes back home to wrap up the season sitting at 8-2.  The rest is gravy. Every Michigan fan should be pretty happy with how the team is progressing.  I have not felt this confident about the future since 2006 at least.  Nebraska will be a tough test in a week, but I think Michigan will be competitive in that contest.  Ohio just lost to Purdue and is a team that Michigan should beat.  It is the biggest rivalry in all of sport though, so anything can happen. Regardless of how the last two games go though, this team has made this fan happy and excited about seasons to come.  It is great to be a Michigan Wolverine.

 

Go Blue and stay safe!

Hoke Press Conference - TW and JT starting at corner?

Hoke Press Conference - TW and JT starting at corner?

Submitted by htownwolverine on August 29th, 2011 at 2:58 PM

Hoke press conference: http://www.mgoblue.com/

Did I hear correctly that TW and JT will be the starting corners?

Edit: Added the word starting. Listened again and he mentioned Courtney right after JT so I probably shouldn't speculate but I did read something on TOS that leads me in this direction.

Edit#2: TOS has link above for the douchy douches.

 

T-Woolf not talking about JT

T-Woolf not talking about JT

Submitted by InRodWeTrust333 on November 2nd, 2010 at 8:13 PM

.....My petition for a mascot got denied

What are y'all talking about JT? I am lost right now???

Wow wow wow we are talking about something completely different. Stop putting words in my mouth yall are about to get me in big trouble.

These were 3 tweets from TWoolf29 after everyone freaked out. Take what you want from them.

Tackling Technique

Tackling Technique

Submitted by maizedandconfused on November 1st, 2010 at 9:01 AM

[FA Edit: Bumped ahead of coaching kerfluffle due to value.]

So for the past few weeks, we all have noticed the abysmal performances by our defense. There has been lots of ideas tossed around, from GERG being a Defensive Jenius to poor coaching to bad luck/loss of concentration on a few critical plays. One thing that has struck me has been the absolutely atrocious tackling, namely our inability to make one.

Time and again, we have the ball player wrapped up, and then 3 yards later they have picked up the 1st down on 3rd and forever. I thought it was about time to look at tackling, both who is making/missing them and why.

About the analysis:

1. I regarded made tackles as anytime a player made contact with the ballcarrier and that ballcarrier ended up down by contact using solid tackling technique. I did not look at technique of made tackles, as after 1/2 of tape review most of the tackles that were made were of good technique.

2. I classified OOB as out-of-bounds tackles, which could have been a solid tackle out of bounds or a bump out (couldn't find a reasonable way to quantify the difference so they are tackles, but not quite).

3. I designated missed tackles as failing to make a tackle in space, taking an extremely bad angle on a tackle that should have been made, or simply just getting the hit but not bringing down the ballcarrier.

4. Bad Form takes into account any missed tackle that used any of the following:

  •        Head on the upfield side
  •        Arm/Jersey tackling
  •        Any hit at or above the numbers
  •        Getting "shook" in open field due to not breaking down or overpursuit.

The difference here is missed tackles in my mind sometimes come from being literally overpowered or stiff-armed, not a technique avenue. If the UM defender made the hit with the head on the right side and attempted to wrap up but the ballcarrier just slipped through, I counted this as a missed tackle only. 

I reviewed the "every defensive snap" from the MSU and Iowa games and the results are as follows:

MSU Total Plays 57 4 TDs  
Player Tackles OOB Missed Tackles Bad Form
Roh 3 0 2 1
Banks 1 0 2 2
Sagesse 0 0 1 1
Martin 6   1 1
RVB 1      
Demens 1      
Mouton 7.5   3 1
Gordon 4 4.5 1 6 4
Gordon 15 4.5   1 1
Rogers 0 1 2 2
Kovacs 4.5 1 2  
Ezeh 4 1 3 3
Floyd 7 3 3 2
Talbott 1.5   2 2
Black 0.5   1  
Totals 46 7 29 20

So. MSU only, we cant tackle at all. 

Iowa Total Plays 46 5TDs  

player

Made tackles OOB Missed Tackles Bad Form
Roh 1      
Banks 2.5 1 0  
Sagesse        
Martin 1      
RVB 2 1    
Demens 5 2 1  
Mouton 4.5   4 3
Gordon 4 3   2 2
Gordon 15 1.5      
Rogers   1 1 1
Kovacs 7   1  
Ezeh 0.5   1 1
Floyd 4.5 2 4 3
Talbott 1      
Black     1  
Johnson 1      

Totals                  33                    7                    18                        11

Analysis:
 

  Plays Missed Tackles/Bad Form Missed Tackles/Play Missed Tackles by Bad Form/Play
MSU 57 29/20 0.51 0.35
Iowa 46 18/11 0.39 0.24
Total 103 47/31 0.46 0.30

For Comparison:

Versus our Offense:

  Tackles Missed/Bad Form Missed Tackle/PLay Missed Tackle from Bad Form/Play
MSU-D 48 11/4 0.23 0.08
Iowa D 66 15/8 0.23 0.12

The numbers in this case really demonstrate how bad we actually are at tackling, and that it is a technique thing.

Solid to great defenses, while they might miss tackles, don't do so using bad technique.

Upon watching again, specifically focusing on tackling, the difference between our D and a Big Ten D is that ours seems to lack that killer instict, getting the ballcarrier to the ground regardless. We don't attack downhill, and we consistently have the head of our tacklers on the wrong side to impede forward progress. This could also be a good reason that we haven't seen a ton of fumbles this year as well, as the most common cause of a fumble is a good ol' helmet on the ball.

While the issue might stem from second-guessing assignments and being a half-second late to the hole, the number of times we went high and behind the ballcarrier in these games its simply shocking. Technique is something you can coach, and something you can keep coaching week in and week out.

Blue Moon, Redux

Blue Moon, Redux

Submitted by MCalibur on August 24th, 2010 at 5:54 PM

[Ed: bump!]

Back in April, I wrote a diary called Blue Moon in my Eye in which I developed a regression model that could be used to develop a projected win total assuming that reasonable estimates had been used as inputs. At the time I thought that the team would be capable of winning at least seven, probably eight, and maybe even nine out of thirteen games this season. Since then, things have, uh, how do you say … changed. With the loss of Woolfolk, how do those numbers change?

The New Blue Moon

Gollum & the Ring Before I get to that, there’s a good reason to update the model. In April, I mentioned that turnover margin is meaningful factor in regard to outcomes, but I lacked enough data to break it out specifically and therefore decided to leave it as a lumped parameter; turnovers were doomed to fade into the ether that is Intercept. No more, the NCAA has finally included turnover data in its database and now there is enough data to mix into the model. The new model has an improved R-squared value (0.752 as improved from 0.675) using just three end-of-year factors: offensive yards per game, defensive yards per game, and total turnover margin. Last time I didn’t include the model because it was mine, my own, my … preciousss. That was incredibly lame and nerdy (both with holding the coefficients and referencing LOTR) but we’re talking stats here so no one should be surprised. Another reason for divulging the goods is, now that there are four dimensions, a chart would be useless. Behold, the Blue Moon Model coefficients:

 

Coefficients

Norm. Coefficients

P-value

Intercept 0.579253998 0.515607437 3.79693E-55
OffYds/G 0.001753298 0.107573121 7.5351E-118
DefYds/G -0.001981349 -0.112371575 2.1098E-122
TrnOvrMgn_Total 0.007973783 0.065213954 5.75637E-50
  • I left the P-Values in there for those who know what that is. For the rest of you, it suffices to say what I said last time: that ish be money, yo.
  • The second column (Normalized Coefficients) is there to demonstrate the relative importance of each factor; in short, defense is a skosh more influential than offense and turnover margin is a little over half as important as both.
  • The use of the model (first column) is simple, start with the intercept then multiply the other the coefficients with their interrogation values and add everything together.  Use it to gamble at your own peril. Until such a time as you can accurately predict end of year stats for these categories, the model is only good for using as a platform to base sophisticated guesses off of.
  • Probable influential factors that are embedded in the 25% of the variation not explained by the model (1 – R_squared) are:

    • Return Teams effectiveness. Good return teams will establish good field position thus reducing OffYds/G.
    • Coverage Teams effectiveness. Bad units will allow the other team to establish good field position thereby reducing DefYds/G.
    • Field Goal Kicking effectiveness. If you get into field goal position and miss, you’ll have a lot of yards but nothing to show for them.
    • Penalties. Penalty yardage will increase/decrease your production depending on if they’re called on you or them but doesn’t necessarily change how effective each team is at controlling field position.
  • In round terms, factor influence on winning percentage breaks down to 30% Offense, 30% Defense, 15% Turnover Margin, and 25% Other Things.

Shine Down on the Big Ten (and it’s self-absorbed neighbor)

Below is 2009 Big Ten Data and Blue Moon Model expectation (BMM Expect).

Team OffYds/G DefYds/G TrnOvrMgn_Tot 2009 Wins BMM Expect. Delta Wins
Ohio St. 364.8 262.5 17 11 11 0
Penn St. 412.5 277.1 6 11 10 1
Iowa 330.8 286.7 2 11 8 3
Wisconsin 415.8 310.4 3 10 9 1
Northwestern 386 344.3 4 8 8 0
Michigan St. 407.1 364.3 -6 6 7 -1
Minnesota 295.8 364.3 -1 6 5 1
Notre Dame 451.8 397.8 5 6 7 -1
Purdue 391.3 376.6 -5 5 6 -1
Michigan 384.5 393.3 -12 5 5 0
Indiana 365 401 7 4 6 -2
Illinois 393.5 403.3 -4 3 5 -2
 
DeltaWinDistribution
 
The distribution of Delta Wins, Actual Wins minus BMM Expect, is shown in the chart above. Note Iowa 2009. I defy them to go +3 again. They were a good team, they weren’t a great team. In fact, Northwestern performed better over the course of the year and—what, what?—apparently the head to head match-up agrees! The Wildcats actually won that game. Surely, Iowa wouldn’t begrudge anyone who leverages a +3 (or better, ahem) turnover margin into a narrow victory, would they?
 
The chest thumping bit that Iowa fans have developed is unbecoming. Like them, I’ll take 11 wins by any ethical means. Celebrate good times, come on, and all that jazz. But, this notion that they’ll be there again is based on what happened last year. How have they improved for this year? Any improvement that can be reasonably expected will be incremental in nature do to player development. Meanwhile, they’ve lost some really excellent players to the NFL (Bulaga, Moeaki, Angerer, Spievey, Edds, Calloway); is Iowa suddenly a recruiting powerhouse? Do they have more first-four-round NFL prospects just waiting to step in without skipping a beat? Poppycock. They’re regressing, and if they’re unlucky, it might not be so pretty.
 
Oh my, I’ve digressed.
 
[How bad the Woolfolk thing is after the jump.]
 

The Wolverine.com: Spring Revelations (Defense)

The Wolverine.com: Spring Revelations (Defense)

Submitted by MGoShoe on April 29th, 2010 at 9:44 AM

TheWolverine.com provides their take on the standout defensive performers of spring practice. This article is not behind their paywall.

  • Most Improved: JT Floyd and Will Campbell
  • Breakout Starter in 2010: Greg Banks and Cam Gordon
  • Could Be Starting By Oct. 1: Kenny Demens
  • Freshmen Expected To Contribute In 2010: Cullen Christian and Josh Furman
  • MVPs: Jonas Mouton and Craig Roh

Click on the link for the full ananlysis, but here are my thoughts:

  • Their evaluation of JT Floyd is the most encouraging word I've heard about his spring performance and provides some measure of reassurance about the state of the cornerbacks.
  • Greg Banks apparently has a compelling story that they will roll out in their Football Preview. Could be another reason to get it if you don't already buy everything Michigan Football related.
  • They buy into the Kenny Demens love and the Obi Ezeh skepticism.
  • Amidst all the Dorsey obsession, their focus on Cullen Christian and particularly Josh Furman is interersting. Of course until these guys get on campus for summer conditioning and camp, who knows if they'll really be instant contributors, but the idea of "Furman [who] is a bit of a freak, boasting a 4.3 40-yard dash with the strength and power to play linebacker" competing for playing time at Spur is exciting.
  • More Roh man love and admit it, you're smitten too: "The 6-5, 249-pounder, already showing the leadership skills of a future captain, should emerge one of the Big Ten's best pass rushers and one of the league's most versatile defenders. One astute observer noted: 'I don't think we've seen any Michigan defender, as close to the line of scrimmage as he plays, like him in 20 years.'"