Jacob Trouba scored to help USA defeat defending champion Russia 8-3 today to advance to the seminfinals of the IIHF World Championship. Guess who played in net for the US: John Gibson. If only...
Other Michigan players of note on the US roster: Matt Hunwick, David Moss, and Aaron Palushaj. Hunwick and Moss have been two of the better players for USA. Moss is playing on the 1st line with Paul Stasny, and Hunwick is in the 2nd D pair with Erik Johnson.
Team USA will play Switzerland on Saturday for the opportunity to advance to the Gold Medal Game for the 1st time since 1960.
So, that Trouba guy left
Yeah, and now Michigan’s defense is in pretty sad shape.
I heard he was good at the hockey thing
Uh, right. A little better than good, actually. Only defenseman besides Jack Johnson to have an expletive seamlessly integrated into his name in recent memory.
Isn’t there somebody to replace him? I mean, this is Michigan fergodsakes
No. I was going to say not really, but let’s not lie. No. No no no. The answer is no.
Let’s start with his basic stats. In 37 games Trouba scored 12 goals and had 17 assists for a total of 29 points. That puts him third on the team in total points, behind only Alex Guptill and the also-departing AJ Treais. The next highest pointgetter on defense? That’d be Mac Bennett with 18. Trouba was fifth in assists, third in goals, and first in powerplay goals.
His offense will be sorely missed by a team that is losing its two best defensemen in Trouba and Merrill, and though Merrill missed a large chunk of the season and didn’t generate an earth-shattering stat line because of it those two were still key parts of Michigan’s powerplay. There isn’t a stat to quantify what a hard point shot like Trouba’s means on the powerplay, but the best proxy (best does not equal good, but still) is probably powerplay goals. Trouba had 7, which as previously noted was enough to lead the team and was also two more than anyone else. That accounts for 22.6% of Michigan’s powerplay goals so yeah, powerplay man. In total Trouba scored 9.3% of Michigan’s goals which means that he didn’t score 90.7% of them. I am desperately grasping for something positive here. Unfortunately, looking at Mac Bennett’s goal total (6) and realizing that it translates to 4.65% of Michigan’s total goals coupled with the fact that all other Michigan defensemen combined contributed 3 goals was not the ray of sunshine I was looking for.
There isn’t a good way to analyze defensive performance without advanced statistics, and even then the link between things like Corsi (which looks at shots generated versus shots allowed while on-ice) and a player’s defensive abilities is tenuous at best. College hockey isn’t exactly a haven for stats nerds so I have no advanced stats to trumpet here, which means we have to rely on the ol’ eye test. These ol’ eyes think that Trouba was pretty good in the defensive zone. He displayed greater hockey intelligence as the year progressed, understanding where pressure would be coming from and making the right pass to avoid it while also learning that sometimes going headhunting provides a super fun adrenaline rush until you get scored on because you were out of position, which is in fact a total bummer. I think that plus/minus is a hopelessly flawed statistic because it’s so reliant on how the team as a whole performs, but we might as well look at Trouba’s anyways. He was a –8 on the season, which sounds bad until you realize that we’re talking about a team that scored 129 goals and allowed 130 while posting a collective plus/minus of –45. Players tend to have negative plus/minus scores when they play for teams that allow more goals than they score, and even then a plus/minus score is so heavily dependent on who you play with that it’s practically impossible to tease out who was responsible for the goal (either for or against) and who deserves the plus or minus.
The one element of Trouba’s play that was less than stellar was his penchant for racking up penalty minutes. He finished the season with 29 penalties for 88 minutes, though 17 of those minutes came in one game at Northern Michigan early in the season when Trouba committed three penalties and got a game misconduct for a hit on NMU’s Reed Seckel. Trouba committed three penalties in a game on four separate occasions in 2012-13; once in November, once in December, once in January, and once in February. The ol’ eye test may be failing me here because I really thought he toned it down a little as the season went on but it looks like instead Trouba just went all non-potty mouthed Mike Rice on people once a month (sorry, too soon?).
Is there some Troubanian uber-recruit that can replace him?
The best of the incoming defensemen is Michael Downing, a self-described defensive-defenseman who can contribute sparingly at the offensive end. He’s likely to have more value on the penalty kill than the powerplay, and that’s according to himself. In the grand scheme of things this is good, as defense was clearly Michigan’s weakness in 2012-13 (see: more goals allowed than scored). I don’t expect Downing to replicate Trouba’s offense even if he is given a shot on the powerplay, and I don’t expect any of the defensemen currently on the roster to have as significant an offensive impact as Trouba did. After all, Trouba did win the GONGSHOW’s offensive defenseman of the year award, which sounds like something I would have created in NHL 02 if they let you create trophies but accolades woo! I think that the only way Trouba’s offensive production gets replaced is “by committee,” which is an athletically oriented way of saying we don’t have a replacement.
As Center Ice put it in Seth’s Exit: Jacob Trouba post, the inclusion of multiple freshmen and the promotion of seldom used players to regulars will either work, or it will be a disaster.
You’re not a very optimistic person, are you?
Typically I am pretty optimistic but in this case DOOM. I’ll close by recycling a joke I already used in Seth’s Exit post because if you’ve read this far you probably like hockey and muppets and Michigan or something.
What's that picture?
Well that's just weird. I don't think that's how they're used around here either....
I beg to differ. Trouba and Merrill left and that deserves an anti-celebration. Those two decided that, like the oft celebrated Muppets that are so beloved by perusers of this here blog, you can’t have one without the other.
Per Bob McKenzie, Jacob Trouba whos draft rights belong to the Winnipeg Jets (Currently 3rd in the East) will be making a decision the next couple days if he stays at Michigan or turns pro.
Edit: Seems like the same is true for Jon Merrill.
WPG prospect Jacob Trouba, the Univ of Michigan D whose NCAA season ended Sun, taking a couple of days to decide if he should turn pro now.— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) March 25, 2013
NJD prospect Jon Merrill, also a Univ of Michigan D, is also taking a couple of days to decide on his immediate future. Merrill is a Junior.— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) March 25, 2013
The CCHA has announced the All-Rookie team for 2012-2013
|Mario Lucia||Forward||Notre Dame|
|Kenney Morrison||Defense||Western Michigan|
|Matt DeBlouw||Forward||Michigan State|
|Craig Dalrymple||Defense||Ohio State|
|Jake Hildebrand||Goalie||Michigan State|
Congratulations to both Wolverines who made the list.
On Thursday, the second day of the World Juniors, Jacob Trouba scored the 2nd goal as the US romped 8-0 over Germany, a day after Canada beat the Germans 9-3. The tone was set when the US scored 19 seconds into the game. Eight different players scored a goal.
The US faces a much tougher task Friday (9 AM Eastern on NHL Network, replay 8 PM EST) against Russia, who will want to do better after Slovakia surprised them by going to overtime before losing, so Russia only earned 2 pts instead of 3.
After Russia the US will face Canada on Sunday (4:30 AM Eastern on NHL Network, replay 8 PM EST) and finish the opening round with Slovakia on Monday (5 AM Eastern on NHL Network, replay 8 PM EST).
U-S-A! U-S-A!! U-S-A!!!
After the draft, sources were saying that Trouba was around 50/50 toward Michigan or the OHL. Well that all changed earlier tonight. From a Matt Slovin article, a new OHL source speaking anonymously spoke that apparently the Kitchener Rangers have put a huge new offer on the table for Trouba. Huge as in Trouba could be compensated around 200,000 dollars in place of an education package. This same source went on to say that he "believes it will happen.”
Hopefully this doesn't happen, but I'm not so optimistic about our chances. And if (when?) Trouba leaves, I think Yost Built might just spontaneously combust from all this
Now the Kitchener president has responded on his twitter page, that the source in Slovin's article is "utterly false"
Just a quick update here on our incoming recruits playing for the NTDP.
Earlier today Team USA blasted Sweden 7-0 to take home another gold medal, getting strong efforts from J.T. Compher and the other Michigan commits.
USA dominated the entire tourney, only allowing four goals in six games behind future Buckeye goalie Collin Olson. Below is how each Michigan commit performed.
Commits by CCHA school: Miami 4, Michigan 3, Notre Dame 1, Ohio State 1.
Video coming soon
Michigan Hockey: 2012 Recuits
|Boo Nieves||Right Wing||Indiana Ice||6'3||185||Left|
Our top forward prospect in the 2012 class is Cristoval "Boo" Nieves and he is a guy to get excited about.
If we were going by a star system for recruiting, which hockey does not use, he would be a borderline 5* prospect. Scouts love his balance of size, speed and playmaking ability enough to call him Top-30 prospect in the upcoming NHL entry draft. The only knock against him was his decision to play his senior year at Kent Prep instead of at a higher level, although he will be joining the Indiana Ice as his high school season has concluded.
He has the ability to make an impact right away for Michigan no matter which line he plays on. Whether it is taking the spot vacated by Luke Glendening or on a lower line, he will be able to provide scoring that was not there. It's just a matter of how fast he adjusts to the speed and talent at this level that decides how much of an impact he has.
|Daniel Milne||St. Mike's Buzzers||5'11||175|
Daniel comes into the 2012 season as quite an unknown, as you can see the chart is much smaller for him because I could not find any specifics out about him.
One thing is certian though, this kid can play. He played Junior A hockey for the powerhouse St. Michael Buzzers finishing with a 16-31-47 line. The Owen Sound Attack thought highly enough of him to trade up and take him in the third round of the OHL draft, despite him only being 17 years old.
Because of my inability to find film or relevant information regarding position, I can not say what role he will have in the 2013 season. I do feel like he can be a huge sleeper like Phil Di Giuseppe was for us last season, and like I said with Nieves any scoring done on the fourth line is an improvement for Michigan.
|Justin Selman||Right Wing||Souix Falls||6'1||187||Left|
Our third forward recruit in the 2012 class comes to us from Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. Not a huge prospect in terms of the scouts buzz, but he is listed as a prospect who can sneak into the draft in the late rounds.
As a player who is known more for his physical play, Justin will most likely start on the 4th line and work his way up. He is the perfect candidate for the Vaughn/Lebler breakout player of the year down the road, as a big bodied forward who plays on the checking line until having a 20-30 point senior season.
|Jacob Trouba||Defense||NTDP/USA U20||6'2||194||Right|
All Hail the gem of our recruting class. He started his season with the NTDP before moving up to the U20 team.
Jacob Trouba is expected to be drafted very early in the upcoming NHL entry draft. Just from looking around at various mock drafts he looks to fit in around the 8-11 range, which means nothing because it is an internet mock draft but still gives us an idea what kind of player we have.
As of this point we do not know the role Jacob will play for the Wolverines yet, that is because we do not know the status of Jon Merrill and Lee Moffie. If they stay the pairs could look like this; Merrill-Moffie, Bennett-Trouba, Clare-Serville, with Chiasson and Carrick picking up extra minutes at the end. If they do not stay Trouba becomes a necessity and is first pair the second he gets on the ice.
Either way most people have him as a one-and-done prospect and I don't see anything that would challenge that statement. He has great offensive ability, great speed and is a physical player with outstanding vision.
He will be our highest drafted defensmen since Jack Johnson and it was a miracle we got him for a second season, so much that Carolina traded him because he wouldn't come up. That was a very uncommon situation so don't expect it to happen again.
Here is another player Wolverines fans should get excited about, because he is about as underrated as you can be. Carrick is a shutdown defenseman who is praised for his hockey I.Q. He will be drafted, but it remains to be seen where.
A smart blueliner with great puck skills and good size, Connor will anchor the Wolverines defense in the future. With a large group of D-Men coming back this season he will have to earn his playing time, which I think he can do. Look for him to get minutes on the third pair to start out, before working his way up later in his career.
Jared comes into the 2012 season as the presumed starter. He is a very good goalie but scouts looked at him as a developmental prospect, not a goalie you want to throw into the fire from day 1.
With that being said Josh Blackburn is an excellent coach who developed Sauer, Hogan and Hunwick, so if anybody can get Jared playing at a high level fast it's Josh. It doesn't hurt that he could have one of the deepest bluelines in the NCAA next year in front of him.
Expect a battle for the top spot between Jared, Janny, Dwyer, and newest goalie Steven Racine.
|Steven Racine||Goalie||Georgetown Raiders||6'0||180||Right|
Steven is the darkhorse in the Great Goalie Competition of 2012. After a few rough seasons in the USHL he really hit his stride playing for Georgetown (OJHL), going 15-0 last year and posting a GAA of 1.66 and a SV% .938. He is a little older than Rutledge coming in at 21.
It's no secret Red loves big goalies and Racine fits the mold. I really believe he is going to make a big push for the starting spot, If not we have a good solid netminder to build around for future teams.
Tune in to NBC. Incoming Michigan commit and current USNTDP defenseman Jacob Trouba will be speaking with the talking heads. That is all.