Football Study Hall projects 2014 football season rankings

Football Study Hall projects 2014 football season rankings

Submitted by dnak438 on February 7th, 2014 at 11:02 PM

Football study hall has run a projection of the 2014 season based on three factors:

(a) Ca. 60%: A five-year weighted S&P+ average, with 2013 getting 5x the weight, 2012 4x, ..., and 2009 1x

(b) Ca. 30%: The 2013 S&P+ ratings, adjusted for the number of returning starters.

(c) Ca. 10%: the past two years of recruiting

The top 25 are as follows:

Rk Team (a) Rk (b) Rk (c) Rk 2014 Projected S&P+
1 Alabama 295.5 1 275.3 5 290.3 1 288.9
2 Florida State 268.7 2 298.1 1 282.2 5 279.0
3 Oregon 257.4 3 281.1 2 257.4 20 264.6
4 South Carolina 242.3 13 266.8 6 268.4 16 252.3
5 LSU 250.2 5 244.7 18 285.9 3 251.9
6 Stanford 249.3 6 261.4 8 237.0 39 251.8
7 Texas A&M 245.4 9 255.7 13 280.0 7 251.8
8 Georgia 243.2 11 258.0 10 277.9 9 251.0
9 Oklahoma 245.0 10 256.3 12 269.8 15 250.8
10 Ohio State 242.6 12 251.4 14 288.1 2 249.6
11 USC 234.4 17 265.2 7 274.9 10 247.7
12 Auburn 222.9 30 277.7 3 279.3 8 245.0
13 Michigan State 241.9 14 246.6 15 248.7 26 244.0
14 Clemson 235.4 16 245.1 16 272.0 13 241.8
15 UCLA 215.9 43 276.0 4 270.6 14 239.4
16 Oklahoma State 246.7 7 222.4 37 247.2 28 239.4
17 Notre Dame 238.7 15 219.4 41 281.5 6 236.9
18 Boise State 251.2 4 219.9 39 198.4 65 236.7
19 Wisconsin 246.6 8 216.0 45 226.8 47 235.4
20 Louisville 224.6 27 257.6 11 216.6 51 233.9
21 Florida 233.0 18 218.1 42 283.0 4 233.2
22 Virginia Tech 231.7 21 226.7 29 257.4 20 232.6
23 Michigan 227.2 25 232.3 22 265.5 17 232.4
24 Central Florida 223.3 29 261.2 9 185.2 73 231.2
25 Baylor 232.9 19 223.1 34 246.5 29 231.2

That seems generally about right to me, although not all of the rankings seem right: Boise State's ranking is inflated, for instance.