Mini-Preview & Open Thread: Indiana

Mini-Preview & Open Thread: Indiana

Submitted by Tim on February 12th, 2011 at 11:02 AM

The Essentials

WHAT Michigan v. Indiana
WHERE Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN 4:00 PM EST
February 12th, 2011
THE LINE Michigan -6.5
TELEVISION BTN

If Michigan wants to make the tournament, this game is a must win. Hell, if they want to make the NIT, it's probably a must-win. Take care of business today, and you can worry about bigger goals later. Enough said. 


Tempo-Free Breakdown

With a few games under each team's belt, it's finally reasonable to look at the stats. If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Michigan v. Indiana: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank Indiana Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. IU Def eFG% 59 117 M
Mich Def eFG% v. IU eFG% 179 40 II
Mich TO% v. IU Def TO% 25 134 MM
Mich Def TO% v. IU TO% 236 178 I
Mich OReb% v. IU DReb% 308 118 II
Mich DReb% v. IU OReb% 42 135 M
Mich FTR v. IU Opp FTR 344 329 I
Mich Opp FTR v. IU FTR 61 199 MM
Mich AdjO v. IU AdjD 45 91 M
Mich AdjD v. IU AdjO 76 56 I

The Wolverines are having a much better season than the Hoosiers, but the stats are nearly even. Part of that is a tougher schedule for the Wolverines. Though Michigan went down in Bloomington in embarrassing fashion, Indiana has yet to win a game on the road this season.

The Wolverines are playing some of their best ball of the season right now, whereas IU lost to Iowa last week... at home. Two of their most important contributors, Maurice Creek and Christian Watford, are injured and likely to miss today's game.

Predictions

Pomeroy likes Michigan, 68-63, but I'm a little more optimistic, especially with IU's injury situation. I think Michigan comes away with a 65-53 victory in Crisler.

Elsewhere

UMHoops and The Crimson Quarry preview the game. Inside the Hall brings a preview from IU assistant Steve McClain.

UofM vs. MSU preview from the Enemy

UofM vs. MSU preview from the Enemy

Submitted by Michigan Shirt on October 8th, 2010 at 3:36 PM

So I know how most people rag on RCMB, but I thought some people might like to see a Michigan vs MSU game preview from the Enemy. It is actually pretty well done and doesn't rag on the team like most of their posts and gives good insight into the opposing team and their players.

http://www.spartantailgate.com/forums/msu-red-cedar-message-board/46853…

Fear and Paranoia in Ann Arbor

Fear and Paranoia in Ann Arbor

Submitted by Ryano on October 6th, 2010 at 2:41 PM

I feel like there hasn’t been enough analysis leading into the Michigan/Michigan State game this weekend, so I have really wanted to contribute. It occurred to me that we have a metric that has not been tapped yet (to my knowledge): mgoblog’s Fear/Paranoia and Desperate need to win levels. These numbers, part of every game preview, offer a window into the psyche of a man who spends his week living and breathing Michigan football. Certainly something must be gained from this data.

I started by averaging each level based on whether Michigan won or lost the game. I used every game Brian has predicted since the beginning of the 2006 season. The averages are as follows:

F/P: Fear/Paranoia level

D: Desperate need to win level

 

F/P

D

Win

4.3

8.5

Lose

6.7

7.0

So this makes sense.  When Michigan is rolling, Brian tends to be less afraid, and more desperate to keep the trend going.  When Michigan is not doing so well, opposing teams tend to freak him out more, and the F/P level goes up. At the same time, Henri the Otter of Ennui starts making appearances, and Brian becomes less enthusiastic about Michigan’s chances of doing anything right ever; the D level goes down.

This is interesting, but we also have another variable in each game’s preview: Brian’s prediction. What happens when we combine these levels with Brian’s prediction for the outcome of the game?  We get the following:

Bad Upset = Win predicted, but Michigan loses

Predicted Loss = Loss predicted, Michigan loses

Predicted Win = Win predicted, Michigan wins

Good Upset = Loss predicted, but Michigan wins

 

F/P

D

Bad Upset

5.9

7.3

Predicted Loss

7.6

6.7

Predicted Win

3.8

9.1

Good Upset

9.3

3.7

When the prediction matches the outcome, these numbers line up pretty well with the Win/Lose averages up above. But it’s interesting to see what happens when the prediction is incorrect. When Brian’s F/P starts to creep up over the 'Win' average, and the D level starts dropping, watch out for the upset against Michigan. Also, look at the ‘Good Upset’ numbers … granted, the data set is small because rarely does Brian predict a loss and get it wrong, however this is somewhat amusing. When the opposition looks frighteningly good (or Michigan just looks terrible), and Brian loses all hope and turns up the Morrissey, look for the Michigan win. The key is the D level has to drop; if both F/P and D both go up, it will likely be a loss.

In conclusion, the Fear/Paranoia and Desperate need to win levels are a force to be reckoned with. This is not a semi-humorous tally of + and - at the end of each preview, these are actually a reliable indicator as to the result of the game. These should be carefully reviewed this Friday to get an idea of what Michigan has in store for Michigan State. Actually, in all seriousness, I was surprised to see these numbers made any sense at all when totaled like this!

Baseball BTT: It's Iowa Again

Baseball BTT: It's Iowa Again

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on May 29th, 2010 at 12:40 AM

 should have won 
Brosnahan Dealing
Photo by
MGoBlue.com

Michigan
(35-21, 15-11)

vs

Iowa
(29-27, 15-12)

Saturday 3:35pm ET
Bill Davis Stadium
Columbus, OH

TBA vs TBA
Stats Audio   TV:BTN  
Notes: Michigan is 102-45 all time.
Iowa is 2-1 in the tourney, 0-1 vs UM.

Season Series

2-5

3-5

 

7-5

18-4

Michigan lost to Minnesota 4-3 in 11 innings in one of the most thrilling Big Ten Baseball games in this writer's recent memory. The loss was pretty tough to take, but at the same time, Michigan doesn't seem to be stunned. The Wolverines will face Iowa in the loser's bracket for a chance to face Minnesota again in the Championship rounds.

Follow the jump for extremely abbreviated preview.

Baseball BTT: Iowa Recap & Minnesota Preview

Baseball BTT: Iowa Recap & Minnesota Preview

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on May 28th, 2010 at 12:07 AM

 nick uban goes kayak 
Nick Urban, Going Yard.
Photo by
MGoBlue.com

Michigan
(35-20, 15-10)

vs

Minnesota
(28-28, 16-9)

Friday 7:00pm ET
Bill Davis Stadium
Columbus, OH

Bobby Brosnahan vs TJ Oakes
Stats Audio   TV:BTN  
Notes: Michigan is 85-86 all time.
Minnesota is 1-0 in the tourney.

Season Series

Minnesota Recap

7-14

 

4-5

2-1

Michigan defeated Iowa in an absolutely dominating performance, winning 18-4. With the win, Michigan moves on in the winner's bracket to face the #1 seed Minnesota Golden Gophers. For Iowa recap and a look at Minnesota, follow the jump.

Baseball BTT: Tournament and Iowa Preview

Baseball BTT: Tournament and Iowa Preview

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on May 26th, 2010 at 7:55 PM

 catching Iowa stealing
Catching Iowa Stealing. Photo by 
MGoBlue.com

Michigan
(34-20, 14-10)

vs

Iowa
(28-26, 13-11)

Thursday 3:35pm ET
Bill Davis Stadium
Columbus, OH

TBA vs TBA
Stats Audio   TV:BTN  
Notes: Michigan is 101-45 all time.
Iowa is 1-0 in the tourney (not
reflected above)

Season Series

Iowa Recap

2-5

 

3-5

7-5

Michigan will open up their portion of the Big Ten Baseball Tournament Thursday against Iowa. The winner advances to the semi-finals of the championship round, the loser falls into a pit of despair also known as the loser's bracket.

Iowa owns a 2-1 record against the Wolverines, but they've already thrown their ace Jarred Hippen in order to get to this game. Michigan comes in fully rested and with all its pitchers at Rich Maloney's disposal.

A brief review of the regular season meeting and some thoughts on the tournament after the jump.

Baseball: Big Ten Tournament Preview @ TheCBB

Baseball: Big Ten Tournament Preview @ TheCBB

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on May 25th, 2010 at 9:12 AM

The College Baseball Blog has their Big Ten Tournament Preview up. I think they're fair to Michigan.

The Wolverines had a huge set back to start the season when Preseason All American Ryan LaMarre suffered a fractured thumb at Texas Tech. The offense went ice cold for the following three weeks before some sort of semblance began to emerge.

That semblance was on the shoulders of team captains Chris Berset and Mike Dufek. Berset, a Johnny Bench semi-finalist, was hitting over .400 for most of the season, but has finished the year at .377, 7 homers, 49 runs, and 49 RBI. Dufek has been the silent leader. Following his break out junior season to lead the conference in home runs, he’s relied more on the double this season, racking up 51 RBI on 19 doubles and only 6 homers.

With LaMarre back, the offense has been on quite a pace, mounting tremendous comebacks, such as the 14 run comeback that graced ESPN just over a week ago.

But, as any 14 run comeback would suggest, the Michigan pitching staff hasn’t been there all season. Despite stellar work during LaMarre’s absence, since his return, several players have been wildly inconsistent. Michigan lacks a true ace, but throws Alan Oaks as their #1. After that, Michigan has a ton of more than capable arms, just none that have been 100% dependable. Even junior closer Tyler Burgoon is showing signs of fatigue, blowing two games late out of the last 3 weekends.

Seems like your normal team capsule, except that guy has a bit better idea of the Big Ten than normal. Definitely a suggested read. There is an Easter Egg for people who follow the link.

I'll have a Michigan-centric preview sometime tomorrow. I may wait for our opponent first, as that guy did such a great job previewing the field.

Baseball: Penn State Preview

Baseball: Penn State Preview

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on May 20th, 2010 at 11:10 AM

Lorenz slides into third
Lorenz slides safely in to third. Photo by 
MGoBlue.com

Michigan
(32-19, 12-9)

@

Penn State
(21-28, 8-13)

Thursday 6:35pm ET

Alan Oaks
(4-5, 3.81 ERA)
vs Mike Wanamaker
(4-3, 6.68 ERA)
Stats Audio   Video($)  
Notes: Michigan is 34-42 all time,
Last year: 1-2 series loss.

Michigan

@

Penn State

Friday 5:35 ET

TBA vs Steven Hill
(2-6, 5.75 ERA)
Stats Audio   Video($)  
Notes:

Michigan

@

Penn State

Saturday 1:05pm ET

TBA vs TBA
Stats Audio   Video($)  
Notes:

Michigan is on the road for the Big Ten finale. With just a game separating Michigan from first place Minnesota, they'll be giving it all with the Big Ten Title on the line. The Wolverines need just one win to clinch a spot in the Big Ten Tournament, but they'll need quite a bit more to secure a coveted bye, presented to the top two teams in conference.

Brief look at the Ball State game and a Penn State preview after the jump.

Baseball: Ball State Preview

Baseball: Ball State Preview

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on May 18th, 2010 at 12:14 AM

last home game

The Final Home Game of the Season

Michigan (31-19)

vs

Ball State (27-24)


Tuesday 6:35pm ET, Ray Fisher Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TBA vs TBA
Stats Audio   BTN.com ($)  
Notes: Michigan beat Ball State 12-8 at the Coastal Tournament. That made the
all time series 17-1.

Much has happened since these two teams squared off just 2 months ago (formatting on that has changed by itself, taking out all of my paragraphs breaks). Michigan has seen their Preseason-All American return to the lineup. Ball State has turned their season back around after starting 3-9. Both teams are in the thick of tight conference pennant races.

This time around, the stakes are equally unimportant in the long run, but both teams need to keep their momentum going as they enter their last full week of regular season games.

Quick preview after the jump.

Baseball: Northwestern Preview

Baseball: Northwestern Preview

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on May 14th, 2010 at 3:55 PM

Michigan (29-18, 10-8)

vs

Northwestern (21-27, 10-8)


Friday 6:35pm ET, Ray Fisher Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Alan Oaks (4-5, 3.75 ERA) vs Eric Jokisch (4-5, 4.59 ERA)
Stats Audio (WCBN)   BTN.com ($)  
Notes: Michigan is 108-27 all time, Last year: 1-2 series loss. Jokisch
is a LHP.

Michigan

vs

Northwestern


Saturday 1:05 ET, Ray Fisher Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Bobby Brosnahan(5-4, 4.64 ERA) vs Francis Brooke (5-3, 4.28 ERA)
Stats Audio (MGo)   BTN.com ($)  
Notes:

Michigan

vs

Northwestern


Sunday 1:05pm ET, Ray Fisher Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TBA vs TBA
Stats Audio (MGo)   BTN.com ($)  
Notes: Could see Katzman or Sinnery.

It's the first round of Big Ten Elimination as we've reached the final two weeks of regular season Big Ten baseball. Michigan faces one of the three other teams tied for the Big Ten lead in the Northwestern Wildcats, a team with a solid pitching staff and a surprisingly decent offense that came together just in time for conference play. This is also a series for revenge as Northwestern was the team to knock Michigan out of the Big Ten Tournament in 2009. Vengeance must be had.

Quick look at the midweek game against Michigan State, as well as a preview of Northwestern after the jump: