# UofM vs. MSU preview from the Enemy

Submitted by Michigan Shirt on October 8th, 2010 at 3:36 PM

So I know how most people rag on RCMB, but I thought some people might like to see a Michigan vs MSU game preview from the Enemy. It is actually pretty well done and doesn't rag on the team like most of their posts and gives good insight into the opposing team and their players.

# Fear and Paranoia in Ann Arbor

Submitted by Ryano on October 6th, 2010 at 2:41 PM

I feel like there hasn’t been enough analysis leading into the Michigan/Michigan State game this weekend, so I have really wanted to contribute. It occurred to me that we have a metric that has not been tapped yet (to my knowledge): mgoblog’s Fear/Paranoia and Desperate need to win levels. These numbers, part of every game preview, offer a window into the psyche of a man who spends his week living and breathing Michigan football. Certainly something must be gained from this data.

I started by averaging each level based on whether Michigan won or lost the game. I used every game Brian has predicted since the beginning of the 2006 season. The averages are as follows:

F/P: Fear/Paranoia level

D: Desperate need to win level

 F/P D Win 4.3 8.5 Lose 6.7 7.0

So this makes sense.  When Michigan is rolling, Brian tends to be less afraid, and more desperate to keep the trend going.  When Michigan is not doing so well, opposing teams tend to freak him out more, and the F/P level goes up. At the same time, Henri the Otter of Ennui starts making appearances, and Brian becomes less enthusiastic about Michigan’s chances of doing anything right ever; the D level goes down.

This is interesting, but we also have another variable in each game’s preview: Brian’s prediction. What happens when we combine these levels with Brian’s prediction for the outcome of the game?  We get the following:

Bad Upset = Win predicted, but Michigan loses

Predicted Loss = Loss predicted, Michigan loses

Predicted Win = Win predicted, Michigan wins

Good Upset = Loss predicted, but Michigan wins

 F/P D Bad Upset 5.9 7.3 Predicted Loss 7.6 6.7 Predicted Win 3.8 9.1 Good Upset 9.3 3.7

When the prediction matches the outcome, these numbers line up pretty well with the Win/Lose averages up above. But it’s interesting to see what happens when the prediction is incorrect. When Brian’s F/P starts to creep up over the 'Win' average, and the D level starts dropping, watch out for the upset against Michigan. Also, look at the ‘Good Upset’ numbers … granted, the data set is small because rarely does Brian predict a loss and get it wrong, however this is somewhat amusing. When the opposition looks frighteningly good (or Michigan just looks terrible), and Brian loses all hope and turns up the Morrissey, look for the Michigan win. The key is the D level has to drop; if both F/P and D both go up, it will likely be a loss.

In conclusion, the Fear/Paranoia and Desperate need to win levels are a force to be reckoned with. This is not a semi-humorous tally of + and - at the end of each preview, these are actually a reliable indicator as to the result of the game. These should be carefully reviewed this Friday to get an idea of what Michigan has in store for Michigan State. Actually, in all seriousness, I was surprised to see these numbers made any sense at all when totaled like this!

# Baseball: Big Ten Tournament Preview @ TheCBB

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on May 25th, 2010 at 9:12 AM

The College Baseball Blog has their Big Ten Tournament Preview up. I think they're fair to Michigan.

The Wolverines had a huge set back to start the season when Preseason All American Ryan LaMarre suffered a fractured thumb at Texas Tech. The offense went ice cold for the following three weeks before some sort of semblance began to emerge.

That semblance was on the shoulders of team captains Chris Berset and Mike Dufek. Berset, a Johnny Bench semi-finalist, was hitting over .400 for most of the season, but has finished the year at .377, 7 homers, 49 runs, and 49 RBI. Dufek has been the silent leader. Following his break out junior season to lead the conference in home runs, he’s relied more on the double this season, racking up 51 RBI on 19 doubles and only 6 homers.

With LaMarre back, the offense has been on quite a pace, mounting tremendous comebacks, such as the 14 run comeback that graced ESPN just over a week ago.

But, as any 14 run comeback would suggest, the Michigan pitching staff hasn’t been there all season. Despite stellar work during LaMarre’s absence, since his return, several players have been wildly inconsistent. Michigan lacks a true ace, but throws Alan Oaks as their #1. After that, Michigan has a ton of more than capable arms, just none that have been 100% dependable. Even junior closer Tyler Burgoon is showing signs of fatigue, blowing two games late out of the last 3 weekends.

Seems like your normal team capsule, except that guy has a bit better idea of the Big Ten than normal. Definitely a suggested read. There is an Easter Egg for people who follow the link.

I'll have a Michigan-centric preview sometime tomorrow. I may wait for our opponent first, as that guy did such a great job previewing the field.

# Baseball: Ball State Preview

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on May 18th, 2010 at 12:14 AM
 Michigan (31-19) vs Ball State (27-24) The Final Home Game of the Season Tuesday 6:35pm ET, Ray Fisher Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI TBA vs TBA Stats Audio BTN.com (\$) Notes: Michigan beat Ball State 12-8 at the Coastal Tournament. That made the all time series 17-1.

Much has happened since these two teams squared off just 2 months ago (formatting on that has changed by itself, taking out all of my paragraphs breaks). Michigan has seen their Preseason-All American return to the lineup. Ball State has turned their season back around after starting 3-9. Both teams are in the thick of tight conference pennant races.

This time around, the stakes are equally unimportant in the long run, but both teams need to keep their momentum going as they enter their last full week of regular season games.

Quick preview after the jump.