Fan Satisfaction Index: Regular Season BBall Survey

Fan Satisfaction Index: Regular Season BBall Survey

Submitted by OneFootIn on February 24th, 2018 at 2:06 PM

Michigan's Men's basketball team ends its regular season with a win at Maryland. Having spent the fall polling fans about their feelings about football, it's time for our first fan satisfaction survey for basketball.

How do you feel about the Maryland game?
How do you feel about Michigan's regular season?
How do you think Michigan will do in the NCAA tournament?

Take the survey here: https://goo.gl/forms/Mh5O5FftVpLLzsEr1

For more information:

Introduction the Fan Satisfaction Index

Fan Satisfaction Index: Ohio State Results

Fan Satisfaction Index: Ohio State Results

Submitted by OneFootIn on January 13th, 2018 at 11:52 AM

Note: Sorry this is so late – work and the holidays conspired against me this year.

Sigh. Another regular season ends with a disappointing loss that could have been a win. Buoyed by a great game plan, the Wolverines jumped out to lead, made me break my promise not to have any hope whatsoever, and then the football gods took that hope away and crushed my heart. Again. Yeah, Harbaugh has things pointed in the right direction and the future is bright. But I live in the present and in the present I feel like shit (Edit: this goes double after the Outback Bowl – see part 2).

And so, evidently, do most of you. As I will explain below in just a bit, game satisfaction “without trolls” checked in at 27.7. This was almost identical to the Wisconsin game (28.8). This surprised me some given it was another loss to our biggest rival, though the Wolverines certainly played a better game than most people expected. A less optimistic take, on the other hand, might be that the Michigan fan base has become a bit numb from losing so often to the Buckeyes and that low expectations led to less anger and upset than is sometimes the case.

Figure 1. OSU Game Satisfaction

Season satisfaction (without trolls) also held more or less steady from last week at 36.8. In scientific terms this means the season was…not good. As I discussed last week, even if your rational self knew with great certainty that an 8-4 record was the most likely result of this season, you still felt like shit on Saturday. It turns out that expecting 8-4 and *experiencing” 8-4 are two totally different things. Sure the season probably would have felt worse had we expected to go undefeated, but losing is losing and no one likes it.

Figure 2. Season Satisfaction after OSU

Thus the regular season ended with satisfaction on a decided down note after the "Peters Resurgence."

 

Figure 3 Season Trends

Themes, Thoughts, Trends

Here Come the Trolls

The trolls found our survey. It’s the Internet so I knew it was bound to happen, but still. This is why we can’t have nice things. Of the 227 responses I logged for the OSU survey, I estimate that somewhere between 15 and 33 of them were our enemies – you probably know them as “jive turkeys.”

How do I know they were trolls? Well, if you rated both your game and season satisfaction as 100, as 15 people did, then I’m pretty sure you’re a Buckeye (or possibly a Schadenfreude Sparty) taking the survey for the lulz. Another 5 people rated their game satisfaction as 100 but with a strange variety of other season satisfactions. And another 13 people rated their game satisfaction as somewhere between 80 and 99.

Now, I’m sorry, but an actual living and breathing Michigan fan does not give this game an 80. Did you? If you are a real Michigan fan and you did, please let me know in the comments. Otherwise I have to assume you were high or live in Ohio, or likely both.

That said, after a long conversation with my scientifically inclined son, I realized that in the name of science we couldn’t just delete data, even Buckeye data. So in the interest of transparency and truth and the like, here is your satisfaction sensitivity analysis, under various troll identification parameters.

As you can see, there are enough trolls to make a difference in the results.

Table 1. Who’s Trolling?

Troll ID Rule Game Sat Season Sat

# Clean Responses

# Trolls
Assume no trolls 37.7 42.2 227 0
Game & Season Sat = 100 33.3 38.1 212 15
Game Sat = 100 31.6 38 207 20
Game Sat = 80+ 27.7 36.8 194 33

 

 

 

 

 

Another way to find the trolls is to use a simple scatterplot. As you can see, there is an obvious central cluster and then there are some obvious outliers near the maximums on each axis. These are probably your trolls. It’s even more obvious something’s fishy when you compare this data to the data from Michigan’s wins (which were unlikely to result in opposing fans filling out our survey). In those cases there just aren’t any fans adopting the 0/0 position – so I’m pretty confident we can rule out anyone who answered 100 on both counts.

Figure 4. Scatter Trolls

What I am curious about, though, is what you think the most reasonable cut off point is. Is there any way a Michigan fan gave that a 100 for game satisfaction? Or an 80? Maybe on the notion that the lads did their best and gave the Buckeyes all they could handle, etc., etc.?

The Road Ahead

I was going to point out how there was one more shot at redemption, a chance for at least a moderately optimistic ending on the season.

But since I’m writing this after the Outback Bowl I won’t bother.

Stay tuned for part 2 for results from the Outback Bowl and to see how other B1G fanbases fared this season.

 

Fan Satisfaction Index: Outback Survey

Fan Satisfaction Index: Outback Survey

Submitted by OneFootIn on January 1st, 2018 at 3:41 PM

Fan Satisfaction Index: Ohio State Survey

Fan Satisfaction Index: Ohio State Survey

Submitted by OneFootIn on November 25th, 2017 at 3:44 PM

Fan Satisfaction Index: Rutgers Survey

Fan Satisfaction Index: Rutgers Survey

Submitted by OneFootIn on October 28th, 2017 at 3:02 PM

Fan Satisfaction Index: Penn State Results

Fan Satisfaction Index: Penn State Results

Submitted by OneFootIn on October 25th, 2017 at 6:39 PM

Looks like crap. Feels like crap. There wasn’t much to love about that game. This year’s game felt about as bad as last year’s felt good. Last year I expected Michigan to win, but not as handily as they did. This year I expected Michigan to lose, but not as badly as they did. The average game rating this week was 23.9 – not quite as low as after the loss to Michigan State, but close. Probably the only thing saving it from being lower was the widely-held expectation that Michigan had little chance to win.

Figure 1. Post-Penn State (Dis) Satisfaction

The more fundamental change in the wake of Saturday’s drubbing is Michigan fans’ sense of the season so far. With two losses and no real shot at a conference title, the season satisfaction index dropped to its lowest point to date, averaging 33.7 this week, down from 53.7 after the Indiana game and well below the 40.5 recorded after the team’s first loss.

The question now becomes whether this figure represents the eventual ceiling for the season. Taking care of Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland – a less sure bet than originally imagined, sadly – will placate many fans at least to some degree. Even if those wins look convincing, however, it’s difficult to see the season satisfaction index rising much above 50. Losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State to end the season, however, would almost certainly send season satisfaction plummeting to as yet unseen lows.

Figure 2. Week 8 Season (I Can’t Get No) Satisfaction

On the other hand, of course, the southerly trend in seasonal satisfaction displayed in Figure 3 would rebound dramatically should Michigan upset Wisconsin on the road, and a win over the Buckeyes in the season finale would abolish all sorts of demons. Hey, we can dream.

Figure 3: The Season So Far

Themes, Thoughts, Trends

Battling Expectations

As I have written before – and many posters have commented – fan satisfaction has a lot to do with expectations. Winning games you shouldn’t feels inordinately good. Losing games you expect to win…not so much. And as we are learning from the satisfaction index this season, fans are also highly sensitive to the margin of victory. Winning and losing by less/more than expected is closely related to people’s post-game satisfaction reports. Figure 4 updates the weekly satisfaction figures relative to Michigan’s performance versus the Vegas point spread. The correlation there is very tight (r = .87).

Figure 4: Against the Spread

Keeping Hope Alive!

At this point the fact that many fans have written off the season is both obvious and not very interesting. What is less obvious and more interesting is why 18% of the fan base hasn’t gotten the memo yet. Figure 5 shows the percentage of fans who are “optimistic” about the season, which I define as a satisfaction rating of greater than 50 on our 0 to 100 scale.

Unsurprisingly, early season optimism ran high. As long as the wins kept coming almost everyone offered some kind of generally positive take on the season. The first loss clearly separated the average fan from the truly optimistic 27% of us who were still keeping the faith. But what kind of genetically ingrained optimism is required to have a positive view of the season after the Penn State game? If you are one of those folks please let us know in the comments. We could probably all use some of what you're drinking.

Figure 5: Irrational Optimism?

 

 

 

 

Fan Satisfaction Index: Penn State Survey

Fan Satisfaction Index: Penn State Survey

Submitted by OneFootIn on October 22nd, 2017 at 8:20 AM

Fan Satisfaction Index: Indiana Survey

Fan Satisfaction Index: Indiana Survey

Submitted by OneFootIn on October 15th, 2017 at 9:36 AM