Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #39: Michigan 6, Boston University 3

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #39: Michigan 6, Boston University 3

Submitted by NastyIsland on March 26th, 2018 at 10:00 AM

Michigan hung the heads of two teams this weekend [JD Scott]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

13 5 46%

Second Period

13 8 42%

Third Period

6 3 18%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

32 16 36%

Analysis: This is another game where overall Corsi is not as relevant as either Close Corsi or House Chances. I charted the game on a re-watch, and it really became a game of errors. Michigan definitely created some chances, but they also took advantage of some major gaffes by BU.

Over the first half of the game or so, the Wolverines were able to get into the House with relative ease, as close to half of their attempts came from a desirable location. After the fluky Slaker goal gave Michigan the lead, they mostly went into prevent mode, and BU applied tons of pressure to tie the game. Michigan was happy to sacrifice chances on net for protection of their own net. This wasn’t the best offensive output of the season by any means, but it was reflective of the game that Michigan was playing.

Even so, Michigan missed a few golden chances to extend their lead and end the game. CHN had close corsi at 32-24, BU, which is way more reflective of how this game went. Hughes was the beneficiary of a goal in which all six BU participants stood in a parallel line. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that before. Warren’s hustle goal also came from a Plinko bounce off of the boards and Oettinger’s skate.

[After THE JUMP: shutdown defense, timely goaltending, and advantageous OMRs]

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #38: Michigan 3, Northeastern 2

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #38: Michigan 3, Northeastern 2

Submitted by NastyIsland on March 25th, 2018 at 3:02 AM

Cooper Marody played like a Hobey Baker finalist [James Coller]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

23 6 55%

Second Period

24 8 71%

Third Period

15 5 50%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

62 19 58%

Analysis: Awesome. This was a wonderful output of offense from Michigan. The Wolverines consistently got into the House and created chances from all over the ice. While it was a tight game, the main reason that is stayed that way was Cayden Primeau. He made about 5-6 fantastic saves. Otherwise, there is a good chance Michigan hangs a couple more on the possession-starved Huskies.

The DMC line went head-to-head with the top scoring line in the country and hung a –3 on them. I’ll get more into the defense in the next section, but Cooper Marody danced throughout the offensive zone and connected with Calderone and Dancs on numerous occasions. Cooper’s first goal was a circling blind shot that snuck in short-side. Dancs added a soft goal to retake the lead, as he shot from a poor angle and was still able to deflect it off of Primeau and inside the far post. Marody’s game winner came from just outside the crease off of a deft dish from Tony Calderone, who had driven the wing and gotten to the goalline.

FWIW, the Slaker-Norris combination could have also had a couple of goals, themselves…including Norris missing a WIDE OPEN net from just under the dot. The Pastujovs-Becker line also created some havoc. Northeastern has a great scoring line, yet couldn’t always get them the puck in the offensive end. Michigan identified that and exploited it all night.

[After THE JUMP: come for the offense, stay for the defense (!). And special teams. And goaltending]

2018 NCAA Hockey Tournament Preview

2018 NCAA Hockey Tournament Preview

Submitted by NastyIsland on March 22nd, 2018 at 9:15 AM

2018Bracket

Hello Plinko, my old friend death. [uscho.com]

After the Michigan preview, there will be a breakdown of the remaining seven games, starting with the opposite game in Michigan’s Regional. I’ve asked Adam and MGoHockeyReference Anthony Ciatti to give a take as well.

Probabilities. If you’re looking for some game-specific numbers, Ed Feng has released his predictions based upon his new rankings.

The Field

Northeast Regional

(3) Cornell, (8) Michigan, (9) Northeastern (13) Boston University: What a crazy regional for Michigan. Cornell ain’t played nobody never but has only given up 49 goals in 32 games. BU has more NHL talent than the Arizona Coyotes, but might be coached by Also Herm Edwards. Northeastern never has the puck but has two Hobey finalists and an ace freshman legacy goalie. So, they’re Notre Dame with goal-scorers. Oh, and the #3 and #4 seeds are playing in their backyard. What even. Can we do this, please? 

(8) Michigan vs (9) Northeastern

Team

PWR

Corsi Rank

PP%

PK%

Players Drafted

Skaters >.75 PPG

GAA

Save%

Record in last 5 games

Northeastern

9

37

27%

82%

7

6(5)

1.88

.932

4-1

Michigan

8

22

18%

75%

7

3

2.79

.910

4-1

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Northeastern:

1. Stay Out of The Box. Every week, this is #1. In past weeks, its been a direct reflection of Michigan's penalty kill. While that is still the case, Northeastern has a top-3 power play. Gaudette, Sikura, and Stevens have a combined 35 of their 75 goals for the season on the man advantage. Yikes. Matching penalties can be acceptable, but giving the Huskies more than three power plays could easily mean a short return to the NCAA Tournament for the Wolverines.

2. Wisely Use the Last Change. Being the #2 seed instead of the #3 seed makes Michigan the 'home' team (yes, I am also laughing). Because of that, the Wolverines will get the last change. This could/would mean being able to match-up the Hughes/Cecconi pairing with Northeastern's version of the CCM line: Adam Gaudette, Dylan Sikura, and Nolan Stevens. While this could temper some of Hughes's ability to go forward, tell me two other defensive options that would be preferred on the ice against two Hobey Baker finalists. 

3. Win via Depth. Once you get past the top line for the Huskies, the scoring drops off rather suddenly; their fourth through sixth forwards have five, five, and seven goals on the season. The two post-DMC lines for Michigan aren't exactly explosive, but Slaker and Norris have had a productive second half. Also, the Pastujovs and Becker have turned up their output, as well. Given each team's possession rates, Michigan should be able to control the puck, and getting some depth-scoring will go a long way to offset Northeastern's top line.

Final Thoughts: Man, I don't know. This was the mid-seed that I was hoping to avoid. Northeastern has two Hobey Baker finalists, a top-5 freshman goalie, a wicked-awesome power play, and a ridiculous top line. They also have a poor possession rate, little scoring depth, and a weakish schedule. Michigan might have the more complete team, but Northeastern has higher peaks in key spots and looks like they might be a tough matchup for the Wolverines. If Lavigne plays towards his higher end, though, Michigan has a good chance...assuming they can keep the game at even strength.

Adam’s Take: Things look pretty bleak in some key spots for Michigan, but I think they've got just enough going their way to squeak out a win. As David mentioned, having the last change will help match top pair against top line; this isn't likely to neutralize one of the best top lines in the country, but there's comfort in putting out a solid pairing that features a defenseman who excels at playing keepaway. One caveat to my prediction: they only squeak out said win if they take fewer than three penalties. Michigan can probably kill one or two peanlties and use the second and third lines to make up the difference at even stregth, but more than three penalties and Northeastern creates a chasm Michigan can't bridge.

Anthony’s Take: I watched the Beanpot and came away thinking NU was a good team.  Their high-end talent and goaltending is something I hadn't seen a lot of this season and I did not want Michigan to draw them in the tourney. Northeastern is 16-4-4 since the start of December, so they are equally as hot as Michigan  They had a goal differential in conference of over 1.5 goals per game, and were best in their league in both goals for and against.

Obviously I think UM can win this game as it is a one-game knockout, but I would favor Northeastern. For Michigan to win they will have to avoid bad penalties and high-danger scoring chances. Northeastern has the special teams and goaltending advantage so that worries me. Unfortunately I think UM's achilles heel (PK and Goaltending) will be their demise here.

 

[Predictions for the rest of the field after THE JUMP]

it's the most wonderful time of the year [JD Scott]

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #37: Ohio State 3, Michigan 2

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #37: Ohio State 3, Michigan 2

Submitted by NastyIsland on March 10th, 2018 at 10:45 PM

*NOTE: Corsi numbers now UPDATED and correct.

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

12 3 44%

Second Period

20 14 48%

Third Period

13 6 42%

Overtime

3 0 75%

TOTAL

48 23 48%

Analysis: So, I cannot comment on the Corsi because I don’t know what it looks like with the power plays taken out. I am pretty sure this will be relatively accurate as I don’t remember Michigan registering many power play attempts on net.

It was not one of Michigan’s better offensive games by volume, but they had a number of good chances. Quinn Hughes was unbelievably unlucky tonight. He hit the post twice and barely missed the net on another wide open shot from the slot. The DMC line was dominant. When they were on the ice, OSU struggled to get the puck out of the zone, gave up many good looks at the net, and struggled to skate. As the lines filtered down, OSU’s chances increased.

The Wolverines didn’t have an overwhelming offensive performance, but they played well enough and created enough chances to win. Sean Romeo just played up to his standard, and Michigan drew an unfriendly post. Also, Cooper Marody’s goal in the second period might have been the Goal of the Year. He grabbed the puck, dropped it, got tripped, twisted his body, and roofed it over Romeo.

[More after THE JUMP]

Michigan Hockey Rooting Guide: Week 24

Michigan Hockey Rooting Guide: Week 24

Submitted by NastyIsland on March 8th, 2018 at 8:00 AM

Cutler Martin has never shied away from crushing Buckeyes [Bill Rapai]

Corsi Table

 

Game 1

Game 2

Game 3

Game 4

Michigan

57(17)

53(19)

43

55

Ohio State

69(25)

57(21)

23

31

Hmmmm. What can we extract from all of this? Michigan is 0-4 against the Buckeyes this season. During the first couple of games, Michigan was in the midst of its defensive crater. As you can see, in the second series in Columbus, Michigan had a much better possession rate. In Game 3, they gave up two power play goals (surprise!) and at least one odd-man-rush goal. The final game was pretty even, but Lavigne had a woofer or two. Also, Michigan has scored on Sean Romeo six times in four games. Eeeeeeck. So, where are we now?

Ohio State Preview

 

PWR

Corsi

PP%

PK%

Players Drafted

Skaters >.75 PPG

GAA

Save%

Michigan

7th

23rd

18%

76%

8

3: Marody, Calderone, Hughes

2.78 (Lavigne)

.910 (Lavigne)

Ohio State

4th

16th

24%

91%

3

4: Jobst, Laczynski, Weis, Joshua

2.08 (Romeo)

.925 (Romeo)

Ohio State is really good. They do not give up goals; they’re 4th overall in goals/game. To pair with that, they’re 11th in scoring goals (Michigan is 7th!). So, they put pucks into the net, they keep pucks out of the net, they convert on the power play, and they do not surrender goals on the penalty kill. Also, Sean Romeo is Cale Morris Lite. What is this, football?

So, what is there to do? I don’t know, man. It’s encouraging that Michigan was able to control play in the last couple of games down there. They’re going to need to play their best, most well-rounded game of the year. Also, as much as I disagree with the single-game semi-final format, hooray that Michigan doesn’t have to beat them twice!

[After THE JUMP: qualifying Michigan's most well-rounded game of the year and a look at PWR and relevant teams around the country]

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #36: Michigan 7, Wisconsin 4

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #36: Michigan 7, Wisconsin 4

Submitted by NastyIsland on March 3rd, 2018 at 11:15 PM

Dancs Goal

Ol’ Dex struck goals…twice [Bill Rapai]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

15 7 50%

Second Period

24 10 49%

Third Period

13 4 33%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

52 21 44%

Analysis: Much, much better from the Wolverines tonight, as they tallied six (!) even-strength goals (seven with Slaker’s empty-netter). They eviscerated the Badger defense, getting into the slot and House with ease and finishing their chances.

The DMC line was crushing Wisconsin on the forecheck and Dancs tied the game early after scooping up a loose puck in the House. Becker and Warren added jammer goals down low. Dancs had a snipe as the second period ended, and Luce flung a puck at the net from the blue line that also got through Berry.

One of the keys coming into the series for Wisconsin was to have one of their goalies steal a game. That did not happen at all. In total, they gave up 12 goals on 57 shots for a save % of .790. That’s not going to win many games or series. Michigan went into Clear, Dump, and Change Mode with a three-goal lead and Wisconsin threw the kitchen sink at the net and pulled their goalie with over four minutes left. That’s why there’s such a discrepancy in the third period. Close Corsi ended up 27-26, Michigan.

[More, including the goal of the year, after THE JUMP]

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #35: Michigan 6, Wisconsin 5

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #35: Michigan 6, Wisconsin 5

Submitted by NastyIsland on March 2nd, 2018 at 11:17 PM

IMG_6495

Oh, what a night…for Tony Calderone and his FOUR tallies [JD Scott]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

6 2 19%

Second Period

10 8 43%

Third Period

12 6 29%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

28 16 29%

Analysis: This is by far the worst even-strength performance of the year. A lot can probably be attributed to the defense, but Michigan just could not keep the puck at all. They did generate some good looks when they could get it; Hayton did not come close to stealing this game. A bit of a spoiler, but if not for Michigan’s power play, they get absolutely run out of their own rink. Hughes did create some nice looks and Calderone was able to finish a garbage goal (his fourth!) midway through the third period, and Michigan hung on after that.

[Insanity ensues after THE JUMP]

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #34: Michigan 5, Arizona State 3

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #34: Michigan 5, Arizona State 3

Submitted by NastyIsland on February 24th, 2018 at 10:57 PM

IMG_8224

Thank you, seniors [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

16 8 73%

Second Period

17 11 50%

Third Period

13 5 48%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

46 24 55%

Analysis:  Once again, Michigan does a great job generating plenty of offense, albeit against a weak defensive team. They overpowered the Ice Devils early and often, getting in to the House and slot with relative ease. That continued through the first half of the game or so. Then, like last night, penalties and some coasting took over, and the game started to tighten up. The Wolverines were able to mostly finish this one off comfortably, though. Cooper Marody opened the scoring with a great drive down the left boards, deking Daccord and filling the net. Winborg lead a 2v1, was given the shot, and buried it. Tony Calderone also had an even strength goal on his breakaway. Going into the season-defining weekends, it will be huge to have Calderone scoring. He’s Michigan’s leading goal scorer, and they will need him once they start facing more top end defenses.

[More after THE JUMP]

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #33: Michigan 5, Arizona State 3

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #33: Michigan 5, Arizona State 3

Submitted by NastyIsland on February 23rd, 2018 at 10:41 PM

There was just enough of this tonight [James Coller]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

21 12 54%

Second Period

19 10 70%

Third Period

14 6 56%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

54 28 59%

Analysis: This was a similar output to the Notre Dame series, where Michigan jumped on ASU early and controlled most of the game until they got sloppy in the third period and took too many penalties. Just like their game last season, Michigan kept the puck and shot from everywhere on the ice.

They got deep in the House area early and finished three times in the first fifteen minutes. Sanchez scored off of a great pass from Marody that slid across the top of the crease. He also poked in a rebound a few minutes later to give Michigan the 2-1 lead. Michael Pastujov scored his fourth of the season on a rebound late in the first. Michigan tacked on a fourth in the second period after Warren circled the net and found Cecconi for a snipe from inside the dot. Michigan needed every bit of this…as we will get to the next couple of sections.

[After THE JUMP: unspecial teams]

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #32: Michigan 1, Notre Dame 0

Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #32: Michigan 1, Notre Dame 0

Submitted by NastyIsland on February 18th, 2018 at 8:49 PM

(James Coller/MGoBlog)

Captain Calderone with his signature snipe [Jamer Coller]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

26 13 57%

Second Period

19 7 59%

Third Period

18 8 34%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

63 28 48%

Analysis: Michigan’s forecheck has been great throughout the weekend and it was on display again in the first period. They did not let Notre Dame out of their zone very often and created a number of solid chances.

Looking at their numbers overall, this is a great offensive performance. They took a lot of attempts and got into the House area for almost half of them. There is a reason that Cale Morris is a Hobey candidate, as was evident this evening. Michigan could have had a few more goals with as many good looks as they had, but Morris stole the show. For their lone goal, Dancs forced a DZTO on the boards, Marody dished to Calderone, and Calderone sniped one just off of Morris’s glove and into the net, therby concluding the scoring.

[After THE JUMP: anatomy of a sweep]